Stocks Rising into Afternoon on Earnings Outlook Optimism, US Economic Data, Technical Buying, Tech/Transport Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume: Above Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 14.0 +.6%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .74 -.69%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 57.5 +2.6%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 172.7 +.52%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 7.2 +.3%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 19.7 +7.3% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 149.0 unch.
  

• Total Put/Call .96 -4.0%

• NYSE Arms .95 -31.2% 
• NYSE Non-Block Money Flow -$158.3M 
  

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 55.23 -.3%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 319.99 -2.7%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 326 -5
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 69.1 -2.3% 
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 206.4 -1.2%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 158.0 basis points unch.
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 100.71 -1.9%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 179.4 +1.2%
• Israel Sovereign CDS 132.3 +2.2%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.49 +.08%

• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -13.0 basis points +1.5 basis points
  

• Treasury Repo 3M T-Bill Spread 6.0 basis points +.75 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -8.5 +.25 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 150.0 +11.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 873.0 -14.0 basis points
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 71.0 +1.0 basis point
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 40.7 -.5%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.37% +1.0 basis point
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 127.0 USD/Metric Tonne +.6%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 29.3 euros/megawatt-hour +1.1%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 39.5 +8.8 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 7.0 +2.6 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -2.4 +2.5 points
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(230 of 500 reporting) +4.4% +4.4 percentage points
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 244.14 +.11:  Growth Rate +10.3% +.1 percentage point, P/E 20.3 +.3
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 11.44% -5.0 basis points
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(7 of 10 reporting) +44.2% +13.1 percentage points
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 295.82 +.14: Growth Rate +38.7% +.1 percentage point, P/E 32.3 +1.5
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .90 +5.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .65 +5.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve -34.25 basis points (2s/10s) -.5 basis point
  
• US Atlanta Fed 1Q GDPNow Forecast +4.2% +1.2 percentage points
  
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 64.2% -3.4 percentage points
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.66% unch.: CPI YoY +2.96% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.21 +2.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for May 1st FOMC meeting: 56.2%(-3.4 percentage points) chance of 5.0%-5.25%. Highest target rate probability for June 12th meeting: 52.2%(+1.9 percentage points) chance of 4.75%-5.0%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +200 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -99 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +97 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher:  On gains in my consumer discretionary/industrial/tech sector longs

• Disclosed Trades: None
  

• Market Exposure: 100% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Value -1.1%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Gold & Silver -3.7% 2) Alt Energy -3.4% 3) Oil Service -2.3%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• HOLX, OTEX, EMN, BGNE, RACE, CNMD, COLM, ACIC, ABR, KMPR, COUR, SD, THR, WOLF, NOV, SKX, BZH, SGML, EXPO, TEAM, GEN, CHTR, WNS and LBRDK
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) XPO 2) CMA 3) ZI 4) CLX 5) NOVA
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) GEN 2) EXPO 3) WNS 4) VNET 5) SKX
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth +2.1%
  

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Social Media +5.1% 2) Video Gaming +2.3% 3) I-Banking +2.0%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• META, DECK, AAOI, CLFD, SAIA, SNOW, XPO, APP, TWST, AMZN, EW, SKYW, SYM, SNAP, IBKR, DDOG, SANM, SHOP, POST, PFSI, LPLA, PINS, ANET, CI, CLX, ENSG, DT, UCTT, BASE, GWW, HIG, VRT, RXO, CEG, URGN, MAT, URGN and TTD
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) CLX 2) GOTU 3) IYR 4) PLNT 5) CTVA

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) DECK 2) META 3) MVCO 4) INBS 5) SAIA
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Monday's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (AMG)/6.03
• (APD)/3.00
• (CAT)/4.76
• (EL)/.54
• (IDXX)/2.12
• (MCD)/2.83
• (ON)/1.20
• (TSN)/.41
  

After the Close: 

• (CHGG)/.36
• (COHR)/.26
• (CCK)/1.43
• (FN)/2.03
• (HI)/.68
• (NXPI)/3.65
• (PLTR)/.08
• (RMBS)/.45
• (SPG)/3.33
• (VRTX)/4.07
  

Economic Releases

9:45 am EST

• Final S&P Global US PMI readings.
  

10:00 am EST

• The ISM Services Index for Jan. is estimated to rise to 52.0 versus 50.4 in Dec.
  

Upcoming Splits 

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Bostic speaking, CB Employment Trends Index for Jan., Loan Officer Survey, (VZ) analyst meeting and the (EMR) general meeting could also impact global trading on Monday.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +10.4% Above 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 8.3 -.6
  
• 4 Sectors Declining, 7 Sectors Rising
• 24.5% of Issues Advancing, 73.6% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms .93 -32.6% 
• Non-Block Money Flow -$187.8M
  
• 87 New 52-Week Highs, 36 New Lows
• 59.%(-3.2%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 62.0 +4.0
  

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 58.5 +4.3%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Pair Index 136.96 +.1%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 19,213.5 +1.8%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 67.0 (Greed) +3.0
• 1-Day Vix 10.4 -25.2%
  
• Vix 13.8 -.8%
  
• Total Put/Call .88 -12.0%

Friday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:    

• World Waits as Biden Telegraphs Attack on Iran-Backed Groups.
• Korea Inflation Eases More Than Expected as Concerns Linger.
• A Brutal Crime Crackdown Is Emboldening Leaders Across Latin America.
• Aozora Tumbles 19% to Three-Year Low on US Property Loss.
• Asia Shares Rise, Tech Results Impress Before Jobs: Markets Wrap.
• Oil Heads for Weekly Drop as Talks for Gaza Ceasefire Advance.
• Zuckerberg to Get $700 Million a Year From Meta’s New Dividend.
• Fed’s Powell to Discuss Interest Rates, Inflation on 60 Minutes Sunday.
• US Bitcoin Miners Use as Much Electricity as Everyone in Utah.
• Money-Market Fund Assets Reach $6 Trillion for First Time. 
• Bank Term Funding Borrowings Edge Lower After Fed Raised Rate.
• Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day: Asia.

Zero Hedge:

• Chaos Erupts In Brussels As Rubber Bullets Fired At Farmers Protesting Outside EU Parliament.
• 75% Of House Democrats Voted Against Deporting Criminal Migrants Who Commit Social Security Fraud.
• Today's Censorship Is Personal.
• Double Standard: Pro-Life Activists Could Get 11 Years In Prison For Protesting Abortion Clinic.
• A Soft Landing Is A Fairytale.
• California Legislature Introduces Slavery Reparations Bills.
• Apple Slides On Plunging China Sales, Service Revenue Miss, Disappointing Guidance.
• Trump Prosecutor Avoids Tainting Fani, Gives Booty To Estranged Wife In Last-Minute Divorce Settlement.
• New Ad Agency Fights Back Against The Woke Advertising Cabal.
• Largest Refinery In US Midwest Shuts Down After Power Outage.
• That upside force.
• How To Ensure A Big, Ugly War With Iran; VDH.
• Amazon Soars After Beating Estimates, AWS Profit Impresses, Guides Higher.
• Stocks and bonds gain on rising claims data ahead of NFP - Newsquawk US Market Wrap:
• A 'Well-Funded Cabal' Influenced The 2020 Election—What Lies Ahead In 2024?
• Stocks Soar Amid Hopes Regional Bank Crisis Will Lead To Early Rate Cut, More Fed Easing. 
• US stocks gained and yields declined after a rise in jobless claims - Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open.

Wall Street Journal:

• McKinsey’s Leader Survives, but Voting Reveals Cracks at Elite Consulting Firm.
• Powell Navigates ‘Toxic’ Politics of Rate Cuts as Election Nears.
• Gov. Jim Justice Is Beloved in West Virginia. Just Not by His Creditors.
• Who Is Eligible for the Expanded Childcare-Tax Credit Passed by House and How Does It Work?
• Harvard Professor’s Papers Contain Copied Images, Says Science Sleuth.
• Shadow War With Iran Risks Turning Into Direct Conflict.
• Barbie Owner Mattel Draws Activist Seeking Changes at Toy Maker.
• Commercial Property Losses Hit Banks on Three Continents.

CNBC.com:

• Tim Cook teases Apple AI announcement ‘later this year’.
• Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: Meta, Amazon, Apple, Skechers and more.
• Amazon announces AI shopping assistant called Rufus.
• Zoom is cutting about 150 jobs, or close to 2% of its workforce.

Reuters:

• Apple China sales lag overshadows quarterly profit, revenue beats.
• Intel delays $20 bln Ohio project, citing slow chip market - WSJ.

MarketWatch.com:

• Can Elon Musk do ‘whatever he wants’? Why moving Tesla out of Delaware may spook investors.
• Opinion: Meta stuns Wall Street with its first dividend. Amazon and Alphabet could be next.
• Apple’s stock falls as its return to growth could prove short-lived.
• Amazon’s big earnings beat and upbeat cloud talk send its stock soaring.
• Why gold prices are likely to reach a record high in 2024.

Newsmax:

• CBS News: Biden Approves Strikes on Iran Targets in Syria, Iraq.
• Huckabee: Term Limits Needed for RNC Chair.

Fox News:

• Migrants suspected in NYPD attack reportedly flee to California after being released.
• Oregon Supreme Court stops 10 Republican lawmakers from running for re-election.
• DC AG infuriates residents after saying city ‘cannot prosecute and arrest’ out of crime crisis.

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• Gov. Gavin Newsom Clashes with Target Employee Who Blames Him for California’s Surging Theft Crime — Questions Employee Why He Should Pay in a State of Rampant Shoplifting (VIDEO).
• Victor Reacts: Biden Regime Schemes to Ban the Private Sale of Firearms (VIDEO).
• MORE INSANITY: 150 House Democrats Including Dem Leader Hakeem Jeffries Vote Against Bill to Deport Illegals Caught Driving While Drunk.
• Protestors Line the Street to Greet Joe Biden in Detroit; Police in Riot Gear Arrive (VIDEO).
• DESPICABLE: 155 Democrats Vote Against Deporting Illegal Aliens Who Rob America’s Seniors by Committing Social Security Fraud.
• SICK: Joe Biden Shamelessly Lies and Tells Sobbing Gold Star Parents His Son Beau Died in Iraq (VIDEO).
• ‘Le Petit Roi’: Protesting French Farmers Cook Sausages in Open Fires – Revolt Spreads to Brussels During EU Summit.
• Will China use Supply Chains as a Weapon in a Conflict with the US?
• BREAKING: U.S. Capitol Police Conclude Investigation Into Senate Hearing Gay Sex Scandal — No Evidence of Criminal Activity Found.
• WAYNE ROOT: Now That Trump Has Wrapped up GOP Nomination and Leads Biden in Every Swing State, Here are the 11 Things Desperate Democrats are Willing to Do to Win.
• East Palestine Mayor Trent Conaway Blasts Joe Biden, Rejects PR Visit a Year After Toxic Explosion — Says Biden Should Visit in 2025 When He’s on His Book Tour.
• Illegal Aliens Who Attacked Two NYPD Officers in Times Square Released Without Bail — Suspect Flips the Bird at Cameras After Leaving Court. 
• Ed Dowd: UK Excess Deaths are Up a Staggering 22% among 1 to 14-Year-Olds After “Magic Juice” Introduced (VIDEO).

The Epoch Times:

• Canada Knows About China’s Influence Attempts in Last 2 Federal Elections: CSIS Report.
• Beijing Is Still Failing China’s Economy.

X:

• @RadioGenoa - Supermarket shelves in France and Belgium are starting to be empty. No farmers, no food. (video)
• @PiQSuite - Security staff at some of Germany's biggest airports, including the global hub Frankfurt, walked off the job on Thursday, grounding flights and piling pain on Europe's largest economy.
• @BGatesIsaPsycho - Dear European Police We are literally in a battle of Good vs. Evil. One side looks after the land & grows your food - the other get filthy rich from Corporate Lobbying & Globalist Take-over. Choose your side wisely - one will be on the ‘Right side of History’ the other not so. (video)
• @WallStreetApes - New York Resident Says Illegal Immigrants In New York City Are Now Forming Gangs Based On Where They Are From. Illegals Are Committing Violent Crimes. (video) American Farmers Are Under Attack. US Government Mandating Farmers Go Electric But This Farmer Says That’s Impossible. The Tractor “Would need to last 12 hours in one field” & This Is Extremely Heavy Power Draining Work. (video) Citizen Journalist Exposes Red Cross Providing Maps, Cell Phones Etc To Illegal Immigrants Coming Into The United States. They’re Requiring Illegals To Give Blood. Red Cross Is Making $570 Per Unit & Takes 7 United From Every Ilegal That’s $3,990 For EVERY Illegal Migrant In Profit giving blood. (video)
• @LizCrokin - Joe Biden is promoting John Podesta to be his top US climate diplomat replacing John Kerry. We learned from Podesta’s e-mails that he & his associates: - Sex traffic children. - Attend Satanic ritual spirit cooking dinners. - Use pizza & other pedophile code words. - Collect Satanic, pedophilic and cannibalistic art. (pics)
• @nicksortor - THE BIDEN ADMIN HAS CREATED A MASSIVE HOMELESS CRISIS ON MAUI. (pics)
• @wideawake_media - And there it is... US Senator Dick Durbin, suggests recruiting illegal immigrants—with zero allegiance or affinity to the host nation, or its citizens—into the military, in exchange for citizenship. What could possibly go wrong?!
• @MJTruthUltra - Homeless Massachusetts Man Lashes out at Police Guarding Roxbury Recreation Center, after Governor Healy shut it down to house illegal aliens. (video)
  

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 1,000,725 Reports(+2,808 from prior report) Through December 29th, 2023.

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are +.5% to +1.5% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 102.0 -1.0 basis point.

• China Sovereign CDS 65.5 -1.5 basis points.
  
• China Iron Ore Spot 128.7 USD/Metric Tonne -1.7%.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 40.8 -.1%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 56.8 +1.3%.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 15.3 -1.6%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.9%

• S&P 500 futures +.6%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +1.1%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly higher, boosted by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.