Weekly Scoreboard*

S&P 500 4,970.9 +1.6%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Weekly Market Wrap by Edward Jones.

Indices

• DJIA 38,744.7 +1.7%

• NASDAQ 15,642.1 +1.2%

• Russell 2000 1,970.1 -.6%

• NYSE FANG+ 9,594.4 +4.3% 
• Solactive Roundhill Meme Stock Index 372.3 +3.3%
  

• Goldman 50 Most Shorted 147.6 +.9%

• Wilshire 5000 49,495.2 +1.5%

• Russell 1000 Growth 3,240.5 +2.2%

• Russell 1000 Value 1,648.5 +.8%

• S&P 500 Consumer Staples 789.2 +2.6%

• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Pair Index 137.6 -.65%
  

• NYSE Technology 4,597.2 +.75%

• Transports 15,847.8 -.3%

• Utilities 859.5 +1.1%

• Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 91.6 -.4%
  

• MSCI Emerging Markets 38.7 -.5%

• Credit Suisse AllHedge Long/Short Equity Index 195.6 +.29%

• Credit Suisse AllHedge Equity Market Neutral Index 107.3 -.12%

Sentiment/Internals

• NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 479,947 +.63%
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 7.6 -24.8%

• Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 240 -112
  

• Crude Oil Commercial Bullish % Net Position -23.4 -9.1%

• CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 184,018 +13.6%

• CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,649,542 +2.4%

• Total Put/Call 1.05 +5.6%

• OEX Put/Call 2.92 +6.0%

• ISE Sentiment 149.0 +3.0 points
  

• NYSE Arms .81 -5.8%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 58.0 -6.3%
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .99 +4.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg European Financial Conditions Index .65 -6.0 basis points
  

• Volatility(VIX) 14.0 +6.0%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing 1.1 +93.0%

• CBOE S&P 500 3M Implied Correlation Index 19.7 +13.3%

• G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 7.82 +4.0%
  

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 7.21 -1.9%

• Smart Money Flow Index 15,075.7 +.87%
• NAAIM Exposure Index  87.4 +3.3
  

• ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $5.001 Trillion +.7%

• ICI Domestic Equity Long-Term Mutual Fund/ETFs Weekly Flows +$.059 Million

• AAII % Bulls 49.1 +24.9%

• AAII % Bears 24.5 -6.1%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 67.0 (Greed) -9.0

Futures Spot Prices

• CRB Index 269.71 -1.4%

• Crude Oil 72.04/bbl. -7.8%

• Reformulated Gasoline 213.9 -8.0%

• Natural Gas 2.08 -23.2%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 29.3 euros/megawatt-hour +5.8%
  

• Heating Oil 266.38 -7.3% 
• Newcastle Coal 119.90 (1,000/metric ton) +.21%
  

• Gold 2,038.2 +.99%
• Silver 22.71 -.38%
  

• S&P GSCI Industrial Metals Index 411.2 -1.2%

• Copper 382.3 -.8%

• US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 419.0 USD/Metric Tonne -.48%

• China Iron Ore Spot 127.0 USD/Metric Tonne -6.3%

• CME Lumber  555.5 -3.7%

• UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,495.8 -.22%
• US Gulf NOLA Potash Spot 317.5 USD/Short Ton -.78%
  

Economy

• Atlanta Fed GDPNow 1Q Forecast +4.2% +1.2 percentage points
  

• ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index Growth Rate (graph)
  
• US Recession Within 3 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 32.5% -.2 percentage point
  

• NY Fed Real-Time Weekly Economic Index 1.70 +25.0%

• US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 98.3 +19.9%
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(230 of 500 reporting) +4.0% +5.6 percentage points

• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 244.14 +.38:  Growth Rate +10.3% +.2 percentage point, P/E 20.3 +.2
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 11.44% -13.0 basis points
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(7 of 10 reporting) +44.2% +47.1 percentage points
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 295.82 +2.19: Growth Rate +38.7% +1.0 percentage point, P/E 32.3 +.9
  

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 39.5 +12.2 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 7.0 +17.1 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -2.4 -3.4 points

• Fed Fund Futures imply 20.5%(-25.7 percentage points) chance of -25.0 basis point cut to 5.0-5.25%, 79.5%(+27.2 percentage points) chance of no change, 0.0%(unch.) chance of +25.0 basis point hike to 5.5-5.75% on 3/320
  

• US Dollar Index 103.93 +.41%

• MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,724.7 +.19%
  

• Bitcoin/USD 43,061.0 +2.6%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 172.8 -.31%
  

• Yield Curve(2s/10s) -34.0 -13.25 basis points
  

• 10-Year US Treasury Yield 4.03% -13.0 basis points
  

• Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $7.593 Trillion -.6% 
• Federal Reserve's Discount Window Usage $2.706 Billion +7.1%
• Federal Reserve's Bank Term Funding Program $165.238 Billion -1.5%
  

• U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 42.0 -1.1%
  

• Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 184.72 -.44%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 158.0 +5.0 basis points
  
• UK Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 32.8 -.24%
  

• China Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 64.19 -1.5%
  

• Brazil Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 135.76 -1.8%
  

• Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 132.18 +7.6%

• South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 33.55 +11.8%

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.49 -.22%
• China High-Yield Real Estate Total Return Index 86.85 +.03%
  

• Atlanta Fed Low Skill Wage Growth Tracker YoY +6.0% unch.
  
• Zillow US All Homes Rent Index YoY +3.3% unch.
  
• US Urban Consumers Food CPI YoY +2.7% unch.
  
• CPI Core Services Ex-Shelter YoY +4.1% unch.
  
• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.66% unch.: CPI YoY +2.96% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.21% -8.0 basis points
  

• Treasury Repo 3M T-Bill Spread 5.25 basis points +1.0 basis point
  
• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -12.75 +1.75 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -8.5 -4.25 basis points
  

• N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 54.59 +.4%
  

• America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 155.0 +1.7% 
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 326.0 +11.0
  

• European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 68.94 +3.1%
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 206.17 +4.78%

• Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 180.88 +2.0%
  

• MBS 5/10 Treasury Spread 148.0 +4.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 873.0 -36.0 basis points
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS .71 unch.
  

• M2 Money Supply YoY % Change -2.3% unch.
  

• Commercial Paper Outstanding $1,265.5B +1.1%

• 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 207,750 +2.6%
  

• Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.3% +10.0 basis points
  
• Kastle Back-to-Work Barometer(entries in secured buildings) 51.8 +12.0%
  

• Average 30-Year Fixed Home Mortgage Rate 6.91% -8.0 basis points
  

• Weekly Mortgage Applications 202,500 -7.2%

• Weekly Retail Sales +5.30% -10.0 basis points
  
• OpenTable US Seated Diners % Change YoY -6.0% -4.0 percentage points
  
• Box Office Weekly Gross $84.6M -32.3%
  

• Nationwide Gas $3.15/gallon +.05/gallon

• Baltic Dry Index 1,388.0 -8.6%
• Drewry World Container Freight Index $3,823.5/40 ft Box -3.6%
  

• China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 1,464.8 +4.4%

• Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 42.5 unch.
• Truckstop.com Market Demand Index 48.2 -8.4%

• Rail Freight Carloads 259,091 +15.6%
• TSA Total Traveler Throughput 2,190,678 +23.6%
  

Best Performing Style

• Large-Cap Growth +2.2%
  

Worst Performing Style

• Small-Cap Value -1.6%

Leading Sectors

• Road & Rail +4.4%

• Homebuilding +3.6%
• Disk Drives +3.4%
  

• Medical Equipment +2.8%
  

• Social Media +2.6%
  

Lagging Sectors

• Shipping -2.7%
  

• Airlines -2.8%
  

• Education -3.8%

• Oil Service -7.1%
  

• Regional Banks -7.3%
  

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (31)

• META, DECK, SAIA, CLFD, APP, SNOW, EW, SKYW, XPO, AMZN, POST, SYM, EZPW, IBKR, ENSG, GWW, CLX, DDOG, UCTT, BOWL, HLIT, LPLA, ANET, URGN, SANM, HIG, BASE, WNC, VRT and CGEM
  

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (20)

• RGA, CNMD, COUR, ABR, BGNE, KMPR, FDMT, WOLF, BZH, SD, THR, NOV, SGML, EXPO, TEAM, GEN, WNS, CHTR and LBRDK
  

ETFs

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

Stocks

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change

Stocks Rising into Afternoon on Earnings Outlook Optimism, US Economic Data, Technical Buying, Tech/Transport Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Mixed
  

• Volume: Above Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 14.0 +.6%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .74 -.69%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 57.5 +2.6%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 172.7 +.52%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 7.2 +.3%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 19.7 +7.3% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 149.0 unch.
  

• Total Put/Call .96 -4.0%

• NYSE Arms .95 -31.2% 
• NYSE Non-Block Money Flow -$158.3M 
  

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 55.23 -.3%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 319.99 -2.7%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 326 -5
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 69.1 -2.3% 
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 206.4 -1.2%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 158.0 basis points unch.
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 100.71 -1.9%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 179.4 +1.2%
• Israel Sovereign CDS 132.3 +2.2%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.49 +.08%

• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -13.0 basis points +1.5 basis points
  

• Treasury Repo 3M T-Bill Spread 6.0 basis points +.75 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -8.5 +.25 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 150.0 +11.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 873.0 -14.0 basis points
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 71.0 +1.0 basis point
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 40.7 -.5%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.37% +1.0 basis point
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 127.0 USD/Metric Tonne +.6%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 29.3 euros/megawatt-hour +1.1%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 39.5 +8.8 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 7.0 +2.6 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -2.4 +2.5 points
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(230 of 500 reporting) +4.4% +4.4 percentage points
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 244.14 +.11:  Growth Rate +10.3% +.1 percentage point, P/E 20.3 +.3
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 11.44% -5.0 basis points
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(7 of 10 reporting) +44.2% +13.1 percentage points
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 295.82 +.14: Growth Rate +38.7% +.1 percentage point, P/E 32.3 +1.5
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .90 +5.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .65 +5.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve -34.25 basis points (2s/10s) -.5 basis point
  
• US Atlanta Fed 1Q GDPNow Forecast +4.2% +1.2 percentage points
  
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 64.2% -3.4 percentage points
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.66% unch.: CPI YoY +2.96% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.21 +2.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for May 1st FOMC meeting: 56.2%(-3.4 percentage points) chance of 5.0%-5.25%. Highest target rate probability for June 12th meeting: 52.2%(+1.9 percentage points) chance of 4.75%-5.0%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +200 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -99 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +97 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher:  On gains in my consumer discretionary/industrial/tech sector longs

• Disclosed Trades: None
  

• Market Exposure: 100% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Value -1.1%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Gold & Silver -3.7% 2) Alt Energy -3.4% 3) Oil Service -2.3%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• HOLX, OTEX, EMN, BGNE, RACE, CNMD, COLM, ACIC, ABR, KMPR, COUR, SD, THR, WOLF, NOV, SKX, BZH, SGML, EXPO, TEAM, GEN, CHTR, WNS and LBRDK
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) XPO 2) CMA 3) ZI 4) CLX 5) NOVA
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) GEN 2) EXPO 3) WNS 4) VNET 5) SKX
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth +2.1%
  

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Social Media +5.1% 2) Video Gaming +2.3% 3) I-Banking +2.0%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• META, DECK, AAOI, CLFD, SAIA, SNOW, XPO, APP, TWST, AMZN, EW, SKYW, SYM, SNAP, IBKR, DDOG, SANM, SHOP, POST, PFSI, LPLA, PINS, ANET, CI, CLX, ENSG, DT, UCTT, BASE, GWW, HIG, VRT, RXO, CEG, URGN, MAT, URGN and TTD
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) CLX 2) GOTU 3) IYR 4) PLNT 5) CTVA

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) DECK 2) META 3) MVCO 4) INBS 5) SAIA
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Monday's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (AMG)/6.03
• (APD)/3.00
• (CAT)/4.76
• (EL)/.54
• (IDXX)/2.12
• (MCD)/2.83
• (ON)/1.20
• (TSN)/.41
  

After the Close: 

• (CHGG)/.36
• (COHR)/.26
• (CCK)/1.43
• (FN)/2.03
• (HI)/.68
• (NXPI)/3.65
• (PLTR)/.08
• (RMBS)/.45
• (SPG)/3.33
• (VRTX)/4.07
  

Economic Releases

9:45 am EST

• Final S&P Global US PMI readings.
  

10:00 am EST

• The ISM Services Index for Jan. is estimated to rise to 52.0 versus 50.4 in Dec.
  

Upcoming Splits 

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Bostic speaking, CB Employment Trends Index for Jan., Loan Officer Survey, (VZ) analyst meeting and the (EMR) general meeting could also impact global trading on Monday.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +10.4% Above 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 8.3 -.6
  
• 4 Sectors Declining, 7 Sectors Rising
• 24.5% of Issues Advancing, 73.6% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms .93 -32.6% 
• Non-Block Money Flow -$187.8M
  
• 87 New 52-Week Highs, 36 New Lows
• 59.%(-3.2%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 62.0 +4.0
  

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 58.5 +4.3%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Pair Index 136.96 +.1%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 19,213.5 +1.8%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 67.0 (Greed) +3.0
• 1-Day Vix 10.4 -25.2%
  
• Vix 13.8 -.8%
  
• Total Put/Call .88 -12.0%