Monday, February 05, 2024

Tuesday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:   

Zero Hedge:

Wall Street Journal:

TheGatewayPundit.com:

The Epoch Times:

X:
OpenVAERS:
SKirsch.com:
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -.5% to +.25% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 101.25 +1.0 basis point.
  • China Sovereign CDS 65.5 +1.5 basis points.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 125.3 USD/Metric Tonne -.7%.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 40.5 -.01%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 60.4 -1.2%.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 15.1 +.4%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.23%
  • S&P 500 futures unch..
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.08%.  
Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by financial and consumer shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Modestly Lower into Final Hour on Falling Fed Rate-Cut Odds, Rising Long-Term Rates, Dollar Strength, Alt Energy/Airline Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 13.7 -.9%
  • DJIA Intraday % Swing 1.07 -7.8%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 61.0 +5.2%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 172.4 -.24%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 7.3 +.69%
  • CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 17.6 -10.0% 
  • ISE Sentiment Index 149.0 unch.
  • Total Put/Call .94 -10.5%
  • NYSE Arms 1.04 +7.2% 
  • NYSE Non-Block Money Flow -$269.0M 
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 54.9 +.4%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 326.2 +.8%
  • Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 324 -2
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 69.7 +1.1% 
  • Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 208.5 +1.2%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 157.0 basis points -1.0 basis point
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 100.67 -.15%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 180.43 -.52%
  • Israel Sovereign CDS 125.0 -5.4%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.49 unch.
  • 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -13.5 basis points -.5 basis point
  • Treasury Repo 3M T-Bill Spread 7.5 basis points +1.5 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -5.5 +3.0 basis points
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 153.0 +3.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 864.0 -9.0 basis points
  • Avg. Auto ABS OAS 69.0 -2.0 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 40.5 -.4%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.38% +1.0 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 124.7 USD/Metric Tonne -1.2%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 28.3 euros/megawatt-hour -3.3%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 42.6 +3.1 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 9.0 +2.0 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -2.4 unch.
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(238 of 500 reporting) +4.2% -.2 percentage point
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 244.99 +.85:  Growth Rate +10.7% +.4 percentage point, P/E 20.2 -.1
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 11.39% -5.0 basis points
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(7 of 10 reporting) +44.2% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 301.81 +5.99: Growth Rate +41.5% +2.8 percentage points, P/E 31.7 -.6
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .99 +9.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .73 +8.0 basis points
  • US Yield Curve -31.75 basis points (2s/10s) +2.5 basis points
  • US Atlanta Fed 1Q GDPNow Forecast +4.2% unch.
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 61.2% -3.0 percentage points
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.66% unch.: CPI YoY +2.96% unch.
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.26 +5.0 basis points
  • Highest target rate probability for May 1st FOMC meeting: 54.5%(-5.4 percentage points) chance of 5.0%-5.25%. Highest target rate probability for June 12th meeting: 46.2%(-9.4 percentage points) chance of 4.75%-5.0%.
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -4 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -59 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +111 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher:  On gains in my biotech/tech sector longs and index hedges
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

  • Small-Cap Value -1.1%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Alt Energy -4.0% 2) Airlines -1.9% 3) Gold & Silver -1.9%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • CHTR, MCD, ADM, TREX, GFS, DOCU, PLRX, ZS, IRBT, JKS, QLYS, APD and SGML
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) IBB 2) VLY 3) XLRE 4) NAT 5) CAT
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) NVTA 2) APD 3) QLYS 4) NAT 5) ZS
Charts:

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

  • Large-Cap Growth +.1%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Disk Drives +2.2% 2) Pharma +1.8% 3) Semis +1.3%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • FDMT, MOR, EVBG, BOWL, MSSC, SMCI, EL, GCT, DWAC, SPHR, ON, CTLT, ARGX, SWTX, MGNX, IDXX, ELAN, SLNO, LLY, ATXS, AMG, HPK, BABA, MORF, NVO, HPK and ARM
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) CARR 2) TSLL 3) EL 4) MOR 5) GEN
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) NSSC 2) FDMT 3) EL 4) ON 5) CNA

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:
  • (AGCO)/4.02
  • (ARCB)/2.22
  • (CMI)/4.45
  • (DD)/.85
  • (LLY)/2.30
  • (ENR)/.57
  • (FI)/2.15
  • (IT)/2.83
  • (HTZ)/-.04
  • (J)/1.56
  • (LEA)/3.12
  • (SPR)/-.35
  • (SPOT)/-.37
  • (UBS)/.09
  • (WAT)/3.55
After the Close: 
  • (AB)/.63
  • (DOX)/1.56
  • (AMGN)/4.59
  • (CSL)/3.55
  • (CAVA)/.00
  • (CMG)/9.71
  • (CRUS)/2.01
  • (CTSH)/1.04
  • (ELF)/.57
  • (EW)/.64
  • (F)/.12
  • (FTNT)/.43
  • (GILD)/1.76
  • (HRB)/-1.56
  • (MSTR)/-.64
  • (NBR)/-1.15
  • (PAAS)/.13
  • (PRU)/2.61
  • (QGEN)/.55
  • (SNAP)/-.17
  • (VFC)/.77
  • (WERN)/.44
  • (YUMC)/.16
  • (CARR)/.51
Economic Releases
  • None of note

Upcoming Splits 

  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Harker speaking, Fed's Collins speaking, Fed's Mester speaking, EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook, API Weekly Crude Oil Stock report, 3Y T-Note auction, weekly US retail sales reports, IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index, (BEN) annual meeting, (DLB) annual meeting and the (ROK) annual meeting could also impact global trading tomorrow.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • Volume Running +8.5% Above 100-Day Average 
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 9.1 +.8
  • 8 Sectors Declining, 3 Sectors Rising
  • 13.6% of Issues Advancing, 84.9% Declining 
  • TRIN/Arms .97 unch.
  • Non-Block Money Flow -$319.0M
  • 54 New 52-Week Highs, 70 New Lows
  • 56.9%(4.4%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 59.0 -3.0
Other:
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 60.7 +4.7%
  • Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Pair Index 136.9 -.55%
  • Russell 1000: Growth/Value 19,430.9 +.8%
  • CNN Fear & Greed Index 73.0 (Greed) +6.0
  • 1-Day Vix 9.3 -24.4%
  • Vix 13.8 -.4%
  • Total Put/Call .95 -9.5%