Stocks Finish Slightly Higher on US Economic Data, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Short-Covering, Tech/Consumer Discretionary Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  

• Volume: Above Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 12.9 +.8%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .55 +36.7%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 61.0 -1.4%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 173.8 +.9%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 7.0 -1.8%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 17.3 -1.1% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 161.0 +12.0
  

• Total Put/Call .82 -14.6%

• NYSE Arms 1.11 -6.7% 
• NYSE Non-Block Money Flow +$109.2M 
  

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 55.2 -.68%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 314.68 -.48%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 340 +2
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 71.0 -.4% 
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 225.7 +.8%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 158.0 basis points +1.0 basis point
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 99.9 +.7%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 179.4 +.7%
• Israel Sovereign CDS 122.7 -2.1%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.5 +.4%

• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -13.75 basis points +.25 basis point
  

• Treasury Repo 3M T-Bill Spread 8.25 basis points +.5 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -5.5 +1.0 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 151.0 +1.0 basis point
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 846.0 -5.0 basis points
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 69.0 -1.0 basis point
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 40.5 -.2%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.38% unch.
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 127.5 USD/Metric Tonne -.8%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 27.8 euros/megawatt-hour -1.3%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 44.0 +.5 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 20.7 +.1 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -4.1 -1.9 points
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(321 of 500 reporting) +5.1% +.9 percentage point
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 245.14 +.12:  Growth Rate +10.7% unch., P/E 20.4 unch.
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 11.30% -4.0 basis points
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(7 of 10 reporting) +44.2% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 303.29 +.38: Growth Rate +42.2% +.2 percentage point, P/E 32.2 +.2
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.06 +4.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.23 +13.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve -29.5 basis points (2s/10s) +2.5 basis points
  
• US Atlanta Fed 1Q GDPNow Forecast +3.4% unch.
  
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 60.5% -.7 percentage point
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.66% unch.: CPI YoY +2.96% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.25 +1.0 basis point
  
• Highest target rate probability for May 1st FOMC meeting: 52.1%(-1.1 percentage points) chance of 5.0%-5.25%. Highest target rate probability for June 12th meeting: 47.0%(-4.5 percentage points) chance of 4.75%-5.0%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +227 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -162 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +91 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher:  On gains in my tech/consumer discretionary/industrial/biotech/transport sector longs

• Disclosed Trades: Exited utility longs and added transport longs
  

• Market Exposure: 100% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Value +.1%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Shipping -1.4% 2) Utilities -1.1% 3) Agriculture -1.0%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• EQNR, ZBH, SNAP, CMP, FDMT, AZN, AXTA, SPGI, MCK, QLYS, IMNM, DT, BWA, MDGL, RXO, FLT, EG, NVST, SNA, NTGR, PYPL, OMCL, NSP, LITE and LSPD
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) LNC 2) ARM 3) AIG 4) FHN 5) FTI
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) CYAN 2) ME 3) EG 4) NYCB 5) ADM
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth +1.8%
  

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Disk Drives +2.5% 2) Gambling +2.4% 3) Alt Energy +2.3%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• CFLT, OSCR, RL, VKTX, MPWR, WMS, BDC, QNST, MSTR, CSGS, DIS, SYM, WS, TGI, UTI, CABA, PBH, EVER, TPR, ALTG, HLF, FLNC, WYNN, ARES, NWS, RRX, OHI, FR, TNRO, PLTR, IMGN, NFG, HSY, WFRD, RRR, GEO, NET, CUZ, GFS, EFX, TTMI, FROG, AAON, CRUS, MOH, CART, SMCI, ROK, EXPE, BAX and SHC
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) BBD 2) XME 3) ARM 4) EXPE 5) WYNN

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) ARM 2) HKIT 3) MPWR 4) RL 5) CFLT
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (AMCX)/.68
• (CTLT)/-.02
• (FTS)/.53
• (MGA)/1.46
• (NWL)/.17
• (PEP)/1.72
  

After the Close: 

• None of note
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• CPI revisions.
  

Upcoming Splits 

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The US Baker Hughes Rig Count report, CFTC speculative net positioning reports and the (SGH) annual meeting could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +19.4% Above 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 11.1 +3.7
  
• 5 Sectors Declining, 6 Sectors Rising
• 48.8% of Issues Advancing, 48.5% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms 1.04 -12.6%
  
• Non-Block Money Flow +$20.3M
  
• 120 New 52-Week Highs, 19 New Lows
• 58.1% (+1.2%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 64.0 -1.0
  

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 59.8 -3.5%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Pair Index 139.4 +.8%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 19,631.5 +.5%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 76.0 (Extreme Greed) +2.0
• 1-Day Vix 8.8 -12.8%
  
• Vix 13.1 +1.8%
  
• Total Put/Call .77 -19.8%

Thursday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:   

• Xi’s Markets Shakeup Surprised Insiders, Showing Alarm Over Rout.
• Quant Hedge Funds Suffered Rare Losses in China’s Stock Meltdown.
• Trillions of Yen Pile Up at Negative Rates in Bets on BOJ Shift.
• SoftBank Shares Jump After Arm’s Bullish Forecast Surprises.
• Blinken Sees Room for Israel-Hamas Deal as Netanyahu Balks.
• US Kills Commander of Iran-Backed Proxy Group in Iraq Strike.
• Asia Stocks Edge Higher as S&P 500 Sets New Record: Markets Wrap.
• Disney to Invest $1.5 Billion in Fortnite Maker Epic Games.
• Citadel Among Hedge Funds That Got Morgan Stanley’s Block-Trading Leaks.
• Epstein Contacted Staley for Years at Barclays Using Go-Between, Court Filings Claim.
• Las Vegas Is Trying to Become the Sports Capital of the World. 
• US Treasury’s Biggest-Ever 10-Year Auction Garners Solid Demand.

Zero Hedge:

• "Go F*ck Themselves": Rank-And-File Border Patrol Agents Livid Over Senate Funding Deal.
• Medvedev Warns Russia Has 'No Choice' But To Unleash Nuclear 'Apocalypse' If Attacked By NATO.
• What Would JFK Think?
• 1-In-5 Deaths In The US Caused By Heart Disease.
• 12 Absolutely Insane Examples That Show Just How Far The US Has Fallen.
• Proposition 1: Politics And Policy As Usual In Newsom’s California.
• "X" Tops App Store Downloads Ahead Of Historic Tucker Carlson Interview With Putin.
• These Are The Most (And Least) Affordable US Cities For Renters On An Average Salary.
• Nuclear Fusion Breakthrough Could Revolutionize Artificial Intelligence.
• US stocks mostly gained and S&P 500 touched just shy of 5k - Newsquawk Asia-Pac Market Open.
• California Law Requiring Background Check To Buy Ammunition Restored By 9th Circuit.
• Earnings illusions and Euphoric optimism.
• Stocks rise to see SPX test 5k while yields chop to NYCB and supply - Newsquawk US Market Wrap.
• Blistering Saudi Statement Slams Door On Normalization With Israel.
• Stunning Collapse In Credit Card Debt Change As Average APR Hits New All-Time High.
• VDH: How Can We Make Sense Of The Current Senseless Absurdity?
• Big-Tech & Bitcoin Bounce, Regionals Red As Flotilla Of FedSpeak Hints 'Higher For Longer'.

Wall Street Journal:

• U.S. Kills Militia Leader Behind Drone Attack.
• Streaming Venture From ESPN, Fox and Warner Blindsides Sports Leagues.
• The Deficit Could Shrink This Year. America Still Has a Serious Budget Problem.
• Why Americans Are So Down on Economy.
• Denying Trump’s Immunity Is Bigger Than Him. Is the Presidency at risk of being harried by partisan prosecutors?
• Amazon’s Newest Competitors Are Stepping Into Its Territory.
• U.S. to Tackle Secrecy in All-Cash Home Purchases.
• Rent Comes Down for the Wealthy, While Rising for the Rest.

CNBC.com:

• NYCB woes reignite fears about shaky banks as anniversary of March crisis nears.
• SoftBank nets $16 billion on Arm earnings pop, exceeding its total losses in WeWork.
• China’s central bank encourages local businesses to accept foreign payment cards.
• Arm shares soar as much as 41% after chip designer gives strong forecast, says AI is boosting sales.
• This semi name just hit a fresh all-time high. Why its stock market dominance could last.
• Warner Music to cut 600 jobs, or 10% of staff.
• Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: Disney, PayPal, Arm Holdings, Wynn Resorts and more.

MarketWatch.com:

• Pimco’s Wilding sees risk of inflation reigniting, prompting swift response by Fed.
• PayPal’s earnings outlook comes up short as CEO says he’s looking to rebuild trust.
• Tesla employees bracing for potential layoffs: report.
• New York Community Bank’s stock rises as bank says deposits are up and liquidity is ‘ample’.

Newsmax:

• Johnson Vows 2nd Vote to Impeach Mayorkas, Defends Speakership.
• Netanyahu Rejects Hamas Cease-Fire Demands.
• Rep. Burchett: Mayorkas Broke Law Lying Under Oath.

TheGatewayPundit.com:

• BREAKING: Senate Republicans Block Compromised Border Security Bill – Here are the 4 GOP Senators Who Voted with Democrats.
• TOTAL HUMILIATION: Nikki Haley Loses to “NONE OF THESE CANDIDATES” in Nevada Primary by a Landslide — President Trump Responds.
• EXCLUSIVE: Who Won Georgia in 2020? New Evidence Provides Vital Clues – And How to Stop Voter Fraud in Georgia in 2024 BEFORE Election Day!
• NYC Mayor Eric Adams Boasts His Administration Is Full of “Chocolate” Members, Proceeds to Compare Himself to Jesus (VIDEO).
• Open Border Allows Chinese Special Operators to Infiltrate America.
• Leo Hohmann: When the Stealth Invasion of America Goes Mainstream: And Nobody Cares.
• NewsNation: Internal Docs Obtained by CBP Sources Prove DHS Aware Illegals Coming to US Through Darien Gap NOT Asylum Seekers.
• Demons: Trans Activists Mock One-Armed Pro Surfer Bethany Hamilton at Library Event by Bringing Stuffed Shark.
• BREAKING: Family of 9-Year-Old Chiefs Fan Sues Deadspin For “Maliciously and Wantonly” Attacking Boy in Explosive Complaint.
• WAYNE ROOT: “WE DID THAT!” How My Las Vegas Listeners Handed Nikki Haley the Most Humiliating Loss in American Political History.
• ‘Global Moratorium’ for COVID Shots? Mainstream Science Considering Halt.
• Taylor Swift Threatens Legal Action Against Carbon Footprint Tracker Jack Sweeney for Tracking Private Jet.
• 1st Peer Reviewed Study Proves Big Pharma Knew about COVID Vax Dangers and Ineffectiveness (Video).
• You Can’t Make This Up: Biden Regime Designates Martha’s Vineyard as “Low-Income” Community to Qualify for Federal EV Charger Tax Credits.
• Biden Regime Moves J6 Political Prisoner Jake Lang to Central Detention with Car Jackers, Rapists, Etc. – This Comes After He Challenged DOJ’s Tyrannical Policies in Court – AUDIO FROM JAKE.

The Epoch Times:

• Cyber Attacks Hit Americans the Hardest in 2023, Says Report
• China ‘Pre-Positioning’ Malware for Attacks on US Infrastructure During Conflict: CISA
• Ban TikTok or Let Beijing Control Our Broadcast Networks Too

X:

• @VigilantFox - “This Sh*t Is Insane!” Watch Joe Rogan rant for two minutes straight on politicians engaging in insider trading. “She [Nancy Pelosi] is great at it. She’s amazing at it. She’s a wizard at it. But it’s not just her.” (video)
• @CollinRugg - NEW: Female college volleyball match dominated by *5* biologic males for the entire game as female players were kicked to the bench. Shocking how quiet all the feminists are. (video)
• @BGatesIsaPsycho - UAE Centre for Weather Manipulation!!!! Video showing control centre for Cloud Seeding. Just a conspiracy though right? (video)
• @WallStreetSilv - This Wendy's in England has gone fully cashless. This will soon be the norm as they push this digital ID and CBDC on everyone. You will be fully tracked, and your purchases will be limited and controlled. Refuse to do business with these companies. (video)
• @Libsoftiktok - BREAKING: INSIDE 3 NYC FACILITIES HOUSING ILLEGALS. The illegals are mostly military-aged males. There’s rampant crime, violence, dr*gs, & weapons. One man complains about the free accommodations. NYC shut down parks to shelter illegals using your tax $. (video) Current job listing for an air traffic controller on the FAA's website is open to people with disabilities including psychiatric & intellectual delays. Doesn't it make you feel safe knowing your air traffic controller can have an intellectual disability or have a seizure while directing your flight? DEI will get people k*ll*d.
• @gatewaypundit - U.N. ‘Secretly Working with Banks’ to Destroy American Food Industry.
• @JunkScience - Morgan Stanley craps on Biden's EV goals: "Platitudinous goals from legacy [internal combustion engine] companies targeting 50%-type EV penetration by end of decade does not properly account for the relevant geographic mix, demographic mix, segment mix and does not allow for the inclusion of large pure-play companies in a global EV market that still faces significant hurdles in terms of supply chain, geopolitics, cost and economics." @NOAAClimate caught manipulating sea level data. Historical tide gauge data from 1950-2000 has been adjusted (lowered) to make current sea level rise seem higher. (graph)
• @WallStreetApes - Video Emerges Of Joe Biden’s Visit To “Liberal Mecca” West Hollywood, California On 2/5/2024. He is met with a crowd chanting F*** Joe Biden, F*** Joe Biden. (video) People Are Going Back Through Interview Footage From The Lahaina, Maui, Hawaii Fires & Finding Slip Ups. Hawaii had just initiated a new policy “Natural Man Made Disaster” (So a DEW Directed Energy Weapon from BlackRock?) (video)
• @ggreenwald - In 1997, CNN - through its reporter Peter Arnett - interviewed Osama bin Laden about why he declared "jihad against the US". That's what journalists have always done. Now Erin Burnett insinuates Tucker Carlson is a traitor for interviewing Putin: the decay of US journalism. (video)
• @RightangleNews - 𝗕𝗥𝗘𝗔𝗞𝗜𝗡𝗚 - Senator Ted Cruz is now demanding that Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell step down, citing dissatisfaction with McConnell's leadership. When asked by a reporter if he found it necessary for Mitch McConnell to step down, he said, "I think it is," very adamantly. Cruz's call is echoed by other Republican senators, including Ron Johnson and Rick Scott, who criticize McConnell's failures. (video)
• @elonmusk - An anonymous source just sent me this from Disney. It is mandatory, institutionalized racism and sexism! (pic)
• @wideawake_media - German MEP, Christine Anderson, on 15 minute cities and the green agenda. "The green agenda is just part of [the overall globalist agenda], which is to erect a totalitarian regime, in which people are under complete control". (video)
  

OpenVAERS:

• VAERS US COVID Vaccine Adverse Event Reports. 1,000,725 Reports(+2,808 from prior report) Through December 29th, 2023.

SKirsch.com:

• Using the MGH numbers with our own VAERS queries, we have 247 cases per million doses from the MGH study divided by 5.97 cases per million doses from VAERS. 247/5.97 = 41. This suggests that the VAERS under-reporting factor (URF) is 41X.

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.75% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 99.5 +1.0 basis point.

• China Sovereign CDS 63.0 +.5 basis point.
  
• China Iron Ore Spot 128.2 USD/Metric Tonne +2.5%.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 40.5 unch.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 61.5 -.6%.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 14.6 -.3%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.17%

• S&P 500 futures -.04%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.02%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.