Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Value +2.4%
  

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Disk Drives +3.8% 2) Regional Banks +3.2% 3) Oil Service +3.0%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• NNOX, PEGA, FROG, SLVM, SHAK, DNOW, APP, SA, LYFT, RXRX, DWAC, INFA, OGN, BBIO, ZBRA, SMCI, BPMC, ALKS, AR, APPN, RS, CROX, TRIP, LRMR, IDCC, TIXT, CBRE, MFC, JLL, EPAM, CLBT, CVE, HTHT, KALV, LSPD, STLA, SFL, CRSP, CGNX, WFC, SUM, GEO, WD, HE, ABNB, EQIX, LECO, STNG, PWP, NTST, ZIMV, FBRT, PAX, ATI, IMNM, VNT, TRGP, ALB, RGLD, MRC, ARM, PYCR, LLYVK, WCC, PERI, REZI, H, OXY, MGY, MC, KSPI and CNK
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) NNOX 2) SOUN 3) JMIA 4) FROG 5) SHAK

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) SOUN 2) FROG 3) PEGA 4) APP 5) SHAK
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (AXL)/-.19
• (B)/.35
• (PPL)/.38
• (THS)/.73
• (VMC)/1.40
  

After the Close: 

• None of note
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• Housing Starts for Jan. is estimated to fall to 1458K versus 1460K in Dec.
• Building Permits for January is estimated to rise to 1514K versus 1493K in Dec.
• NY Fed Services Business Activity for Feb.
• PPI Final Demand MoM for Jan. is estimated to rise +.1% versus a -.2% decline in Dec.
• PPI Ex Food and Energy MoM for Jan. is estimated to rise +.1% versus a -.2% decline in Dec.
  

10:00 am EST

• Univ. of Mich. Consumer Sentiment for Feb. is estimated to rise to 80.0 versus 79.0 in Jan.
• Univ. of Mich. 1Y Inflation Expectation Index for Feb.  
  

Upcoming Splits 

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Barr speaking, Fed's Daly speaking, Atlanta Fed GDPNow 1Q update, US Baker Hughes Rig Count, CFTC Speculative Net Position reports and the (CAT) analyst meeting could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +13.1% Above 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 11.3 +.7
  
• 1 Sector Declining, 10 Sectors Rising
• 75.3% of Issues Advancing, 22.7% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms 1.17 +219%
  
• Non-Block Money Flow +$215.0M
  
• 163 New 52-Week Highs, 9 New Lows
• 60.8% (+3.6%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 64.0 +6.0
  

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 71.7 +21.7%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Pair Index 139.4 +.21%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 19,361.0 -1.2%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 73.0 (Greed) +1.0
• 1-Day Vix 10.5 -13.3%
  
• Vix 14.5 +1.0%
  
• Total Put/Call .93 -1.1%

Thursday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are unch. to +1.0% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 101.5 -1.0 basis point.

• China Sovereign CDS 65.0 -.5 basis point.
  
• China Iron Ore Spot 128.9 USD/Metric Tonne -.19%.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 40.3 -.2%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 59.3 +.6%.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 15.1 -.6%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.21%

• S&P 500 futures -.11%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.17%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by industrial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Rising into Final Hour on Lower Long-Term Rates, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Short-Covering, Transport/Alt Energy Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Gaining
  

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 14.6 -7.7%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .59 -49.3%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 59.8 +6.2%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 174.5 +.02%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 6.8 -.6%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 17.0 -5.7% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 154.0 +29.0
  

• Total Put/Call .96 +9.1%

• NYSE Arms 1.11 +3.7% 
• NYSE Non-Block Money Flow +$129.0M 
  

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 54.2 -1.1%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 310.62 +.75%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 300 -9
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 68.2 -.24% 
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 211.9 +1.0%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 152.0 basis points -3.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 102.0 +1.8%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 180.9 -1.5%
• Israel Sovereign CDS 116.4 +1.6%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.4 -.29%

• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -11.0 basis points +.75 basis point
  

• Treasury Repo 3M T-Bill Spread 7.25 basis points -1.5 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -6.0 unch.
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 159.0 unch.
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 843.0 +4.0 basis points
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 65.0 unch.
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 40.4 -.01%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.37% -1.0 basis point
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 129.2 USD/Metric Tonne +.05%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 24.9 euros/megawatt-hour -2.3%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 47.2 +2.5 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 34.6 +12.3 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -.3 -.5 point
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(369 of 500 reporting) +5.7% +.4 percentage point
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 245.70 +.15:  Growth Rate +11.0% +.1 percentage point, P/E 20.2 unch.
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 11.24% -3.0 basis points
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(7 of 10 reporting) +44.2% unch.
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 306.39 +.46: Growth Rate +43.6% +.2 percentage point, P/E 31.7 unch.
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.05 -4.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .89 +6.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve -30.75 basis points (2s/10s) +3.0 basis points
  
• US Atlanta Fed 1Q GDPNow Forecast +3.4% unch.
  
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 55.1% -4.7 percentage points
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.74% unch.: CPI YoY +3.06% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.30 +1.0 basis point
  
• Highest target rate probability for May 1st FOMC meeting: 61.5%(-4.0 percentage points) chance of 5.25%-5.5%. Highest target rate probability for June 12th meeting: 53.7%(+1.6 percentage points) chance of 5.0%-5.25%.
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +317 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -65 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +86 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher:  On gains in my tech/consumer discretionary/industrial/biotech/transport sector longs

• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Value +.5%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Foods -.9% 2) Energy -.1% 3) Computer Services unch.

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• WMB, OTTR, ESTA, GDDY, SONY, CART, KHC, CAR, HE, MGM, R, TGLS, CAE, CC, UPST and QDEL
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) ATMU 2) GDDY 3) LYFT 4) CART 5) FSLY
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) QDEL 2) UPST 3) CC 4) MITQ 5) NVTA
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume