Monday, July 29, 2024

Tuesday Watch

Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:

Zerohedge:  

Fox News:
TheGatewayPundit.com:

The Epoch Times:

Around X:
  • @SprinterFamily
  • @StillGray
  • @nicksortor
  • @ImMeme0
  • @BehizyTweets
  • @realLizUSA
  • @EndWokeness
  • @CollinRugg
  • @libsoftiktok
  • @WallStreetApes
  • @DogRightGirl
  • @ChuckCallesto
  • @ClownWorld_
  • @wideawake_media
  • @nataliegwinters
OpenVAERS:
SKirsch.com:
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -1.25% to -.25% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 96.25 -.25 basis point.
  • China Sovereign CDS 65.0 +1.0 basis point.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 101.2 USD/Metric Tonne -.7%
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.0 +.02%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 51.9 +1.1%.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 16.1 +.6%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures unch.
  • S&P 500 futures -.29%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.42%.  
Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by commodity and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Slightly Higher into Final Hour on Lower Long-Term Rates, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Technical Buying, Consumer Discretionary/Medical Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 16.4 +.06%
  • DJIA Intraday % Swing .72 -51.1%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 52.5 -.14%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 183.3 -.17%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 7.52 +.67%
  • CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 14.1 -2.7% 
  • ISE Sentiment Index 146.0 unch.
  • Total Put/Call .86 -17.3%
  • NYSE Arms 1.42 +44.9%
  • NYSE Non-Block Money Flow +$11.7M 
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 51.6 +.9%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 276.8 +2.7%
  • Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 241 +6
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 62.6 +.74%
  • Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 162.2 -.9%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 135.0 basis points -1.0 basis point
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 96.0 -1.4%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 167.90 +.9%
  • Israel Sovereign CDS 127.7 -.1%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 25.07 +.07%
  • 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -15.25 basis points +.25 basis point
  • Treasury Repo 3M T-Bill Spread -5.5 basis points -.75 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -1.5 unch.
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 142.0 -1.0 basis point
  • Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 685.0 -2.0 basis points
  • Avg. Auto ABS OAS 60.0 unch.
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 39.0 -.33%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 5.29% unch.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 101.0 USD/Metric Tonne -.9%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 33.9 euros/megawatt-hour +4.3%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -29.3 +4.7 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -55.7 -2.8 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -3.5 +2.8 points
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(210 of 500 reporting) +6.3% -.2 percentage point
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 262.85 +.47:  Growth Rate +15.1% +.2 percentage point, P/E 20.8 unch.
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.79% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(3 of 10 reporting) +19.8% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 336.14 +.85: Growth Rate +25.3% +.3 percentage point, P/E 32.8 +.2
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .78 +6.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .75 +20.0 basis points
  • US Yield Curve -21.5 basis points (2s/10s) -1.5 basis points
  • US Atlanta Fed 3Q GDPNow Forecast +2.83% unch.
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 60.9% -.7 percentage point
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.73% unch.: CPI YoY +3.01% unch.
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.25 unch.
  • Highest target rate probability for Sept. 18th FOMC meeting: 89.6%(+1.4 percentage points) chance of 5.0%-5.25%. Highest target rate probability for Nov. 7th meeting: 59.4%(-1.1 percentage points) chance of 4.75%-5.0%.
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -28 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -63 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +146 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Higher:  On gains in my consumer discretionary sector longs, emerging market shorts and index hedges
  • Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

  • Small-Cap Value -1.3%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Alt Energy -3.6% 2) Airlines -2.3% 3) Regional Banks -1.8%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • STLA, CGBD, PRKS, ARLP, CRGY, TNDM, SNDX, IART and CTRI
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) JBLU 2) LUMN 3) IVZ 4) STNG 5) GSK
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) IART 2) SMR 3) BMRC 4) HTZ 5) ARM
Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:
  • 1) KXI 2) XLC 3) SMH 4) XLY 5) XOP

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

  • Large-Cap Growth +.4%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Restaurants +2.9% 2) Networking +1.6% 3) Gambling +1.3%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • NIPG, SERV, SAVA, ON, PHG, SHYF, ZIM, MXL, LXEO, OSCR, RVTY, TVTX, BLCO, TSLA, GH, DXCM, CSTL, CAMT, SHAK, MCD, WEX, SN, LIF, AMG, AEHR, COLM, BAH and DECK
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) CSTM 2) OWL 3) MAT 4) TAL 5) DISH
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) COMM 2) ON 3) OIS 4) WEX 5) BABA
Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:
  • 1) XLI 2) XLF 3) EXI 4) KRE 5) XLK
Charts:

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 
Before the Open:
  • (AGCO)/2.90
  • (AMT)/2.56
  • (ADM)/1.22
  • (AWI)/1.55
  • (CVLT)/.73
  • (GLW)/.46
  • (EXP)/3.55
  • (IT)/3.02
  • (HUBB)/4.24
  • (ITW)/2.47
  • (IGT)/.39
  • (LDOS)/2.27
  • (MRK)/2.16
  • (PYPL)/.99
  • (PFE)/.46
  • (PSX)/1.98 
  • (RGEN)/.33
  • (SWK)/.84
  • (SYY)/1.38
  • (XYL)/1.05
After the Close: 
  • (AMD)/.68
  • (ANET)/1.94
  • (BXP)/1.73
  • (CZR)/.13
  • (EA)/.42
  • (FSLR)/2.71
  • (LSTR)/1.46
  • (MTCH)/.48
  • (MSFT)/2.93
  • (POWL)/2.16
  • (PSA)/4.20
  • (SWKS)/1.21
  • (SBUX)/.93
  • (SYK)/2.79
  • (WERN)/.20
Economic Releases

9:00 am EST

  • The FHFA House Price Index MoM for May is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.2% gain in April.
  • The S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA for May is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.2% gain in April.

10:00 am EST

  • JOLTS Job Openings for June is estimated to fall to 8000K versus 8140K in May.
  • The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index for July is estimated to fall to 99.7 versus 100.4 in June.

Upcoming Splits

  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The weekly US retail sales reports, Texas Services Sector Outlook for July and the API weekly crude oil stock report could also impact global trading tomorrow.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • Volume Running -10.9% Below 100-Day Average 
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 12.5 +.2
  • 7 Sectors Declining, 4 Sectors Rising
  • 38.5% of Issues Advancing, 59.1% Declining 
  • TRIN/Arms 1.48 +51.0%
  • Non-Block Money Flow +$32.0M
  • 144 New 52-Week Highs, 10 New Lows
  • 66.1% (-.5%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 58.0 -1.0
Other:
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 52.0 -.9%
  • Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 234.8 +.1%
  • Russell 1000: Growth/Value 19,475.5 +.36%
  • CNN Fear & Greed Index 44.0 (FEAR) -1.0
  • 1-Day Vix 12.5 -18.6%
  • Vix 17.1 +4.2%
  • Total Put/Call .92 -11.5%