Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -5.4% Below 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 13.8 +2.2
  
• 2 Sectors Declining, 9 Sectors Rising
• 53.8% of Issues Advancing, 44.4% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms 1.50 +85.2%
  
• Non-Block Money Flow +$145.9M
  
• 75 New 52-Week Highs, 26 New Lows
• 57.5% (-.8%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 65.0 -1.0
  

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 60.8 +2.5%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 231.7 -.01%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 19,918.3 +1.2%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 73.0 (GREED) unch.
  
• 1-Day Vix 11.2 -20.0%
  
• Vix 21.4 -5.4%
  
• Total Put/Call .87 +13.0%

Tuesday Watch

Around X:

• @elonmusk

• @ElonMusk: “The Purpose of No Voter ID Is Obviously to Conduct FRAUD In Elections”. “The same people that demanded vaccine IDs if you want to travel or do anything are the same ones who say no voter ID is required.” Musk pointed out how it is “literally impossible” to prove fraud if no ID is required. “So, it enables large-scale fraud and no way to prove it,” Musk said. “So, yeah, the purpose of no voter ID is obviously to conduct fraud in elections. Obviously. There can be no other explanation.”
• Elon: "Many billionaires behind Kamala are terrified about the Epstein client list". (video)

• @Inga_C8

• One of the best videos I've seen to get a sense of what people in NC were going through when trying to escape the flash flooding. When I see comments wondering why folks just didn't leave. . . here's why. Please take 3 minutes to watch this. It is real life and harrowing. (video)

• @GenFlynn

• You have to listen to this clip. Another “conspiracy theory” about to be exposed for the truth behind weather manipulation? (video)

• @Libsoftiktok
  

• BREAKING: @fema's Disaster Relief Fund monthly report reveals that nearly $4 BILLION was spent on "COVID-19 aid" in September of 2024, the most of any month since October 2023. Billions of dollars are being spent on a pandemic that's been over for years while Helene victims are struggling. See for yourself where the priorities lie in Kamala's America.
• Don’t be gaslit. FEMA is indeed using funds for migrants!! (pic)

• @MattWallace888

• Rumors are circulating about the strange-looking NOAA “data collection” plane flight pattern through Hurricane Milton. (video)

• @ShadowofEzra

• In 2021, a CNN Director was caught on tape revealing that the network had chosen to make "Climate Change" the next pandemic, claiming people were fatigued with COVID. He also admitted that CNN concentrated on helping to remove Trump from office and is now searching for an issue with "longevity." Fast forward to 2024, and climate change, now being blamed for hurricanes, could play a significant role in influencing the upcoming election. (video)

• @LauraLoomer

• EXCLUSIVE: Ecological disaster could possibly be brewing in Asheville, North Carolina on the French Broad River after severe Hurricane Helene damage. This is something nobody is talking about but it needs to be asked. Is Asheville, North Carolina about to become the next East Palestine? I’m hearing reports from a source on the ground who is working with me to get exclusive photo and video content of search and recovery efforts on the ground in North Carolina that a PVC manufacturing plant called Silver-Line Plastics Corporation was severely damaged by the flooding from Hurricane Helene, and all of its inventory was dispersed by the flooding. We discovered this by doing our own recon work with a drone I just purchased to be used by my source who is a multi-tour infantry SOCOM veteran the sake of getting footage of the storm disaster and locating bodies. This means that TONS of PVC pipe may have been littered and dispersed across the environment. (pic)
  

• @GardensR4Health
  

• UPDATE. A clip from the most cohesive interview with a local I’ve seen. Krissy’s respected locally, she’s an expert on outdoorsman/river life. Media and politicians have no concept. It’s mind blowing her neighbors had to run to the woods to survive. Full interview below: (video)
• WOW. The teams with the non-profit, Aerial Recovery, are just badass. It’s all ex-military guys and they aren’t waiting for the government to help these people. Hundreds/thousands of stranded people are desperate for food, water, medical help, and winter is coming….

• @RepMTG
  

• Yes they can control the weather. Here is Obama’s CIA Director John Brennan talking about it. Anyone who says they don’t, or makes fun of this, is lying to you. By the way, the people know it and hate all of you who try to cover it up. (video)  
• Lasers.. CBS, 9 years ago, talked about lasers controlling the weather. (video)

• @DC_Draino

• What the hell?! A government helicopter flew threateningly low near a Cajun Navy volunteer supply drop in North Carolina and blew their supplies all over the parking lot Uniparty hacks keep complaining about “misinformation” with the feds trying to thwart rescue efforts. Well here’s video proving they are... (video)

• @BGatesIsaPsycho

• HAARP - What is HAARP? “HAARP is designed to inject energy into the ionosphere in order to control it”. Now factor in all the Geo-Engineering. Just because Legacy Media don’t talk about it, doesn’t mean it’s not happening. Listen. (video)

• @charliekirk11
  

• Getting reports that a left-leaning group just dropped off 20,000 voter registration forms to Maricopa County on the last day. This is almost assuredly a Democrat "dump" at the end to try to inject chaos and bring litigation to give the Democrats more opportunity to manipulate the law and squeeze in more registrations.

• @LaurenWitzkeDE
  

• Back then they just talked about it openly. Now, you’re a conspiracy theorist for noticing something is very, very wrong with the weather. (pic)
  

• @WallStreetApes

• This woman filmed a part of Asheville, North Carolina yesterday devastated with debris from Hurricane Helene. Today she shows the same area has been bulldozed and cleared, “I know within that amount of time, they couldn't have looked for victims”. No words…. (Video includes before and after of the area). (video)
• First Hand Account of Hurricane Helene Victim Confirming $750 FEMA Aid Offered To Him IS A LOAN. American has been crying for 20 minutes after FEMA visited him, “sorry for the emotions”. “There is a FEMA man who came and explained something very serious about the $750 that you guys don't know and that they're not going to tell you. And unless you have a magnifying glass in the contract that they're going to sign during your inspection, you'll never see it. (video)
• More Hurricane Helene Victims DENIED AID By Kamala Harris’ FEMA. “I'm from Swannanoa, North Carolina. I lost everything I have. I just did an inspection with FEMA last night. They told me that I was denied”. “This is disgusting. I've never seen the government fail us worse”. (video)
• Residents of Marshall, North Carolina are having to dig their town out of the mud after Hurricane Helene. This small town only has a population of 872 people…. where is FEMA? This is a resident video, not being broadcasted by the mainstream media. (video)
  

• @Franklin_Graham

• I’m at the airstrip near our @SamaritansPurse headquarters in Boone, NC, and as of today, we have completed 67 helicopter missions to deliver water, food, blankets, generators, fuel, medicines, and much more to help victims of Hurricane Helene in isolated areas. We even delivered a tent to a church so that they could continue to meet as they recover. Today we also flew several missions delivering and setting up Starlinks in remote communities where people were completely cut off. Thank you
  @elonmusk! (video)

• @WallStreetSilv
  

• These people are insane. "FEMA relief is no longer about getting the greatest good for the greatest amount of people…. It's about disaster equity." (video)
  

• @KristyTallman

• BIGGER IS BETTER TO HAARP. Chemtrails crisscross the Florida skies as Hurricane Milton approaches, fueling speculation about weather manipulation and geoengineering efforts. (video)
  

• @WarClandestine
  

• The MSM have gotten their talking points. Joe Scarborough echos the narrative that Trump will “use Seal Team 6 to assassinate political rivals”. This is coming from the Dems, who used the FBI to raid Trump’s home, and tried to assassinate him… twice. (video)
  

• @wideawake_media

• "The biggest fear that the World Economic Forum has is that there are going to be people that will not comply." "So this digital stuff is absolutely key, because without it they can't enforce anything." "And if they have a digital process whereby they can restrict your movement, your behaviour and your decisions with the click of a button, you are done." (video)

• @TPV_John

• Out of sheer morbid curiosity I decided to do a quick dig on Tampa & any “plans” of it possibly becoming a WEF “15 minute city”… Tampa IS on the list to become a “15 minute city” & the plan is called M.O.V.E.S. You will NEVER guess who’s name popped up in my research… BILL GATES. “Through his own investment fund, joined by Bill Gates’ Cascade fund, Vinik acquired 40 acres of land for a multi-billion dollar transformation of the vacant waterfront into a planned community…Construction began earlier this year, and within 10 years, the city will look nothing like the Tampa of today. With Vinik’s vision, it will be a model city of the future.” 10 years from 2016 is 2026. (video)
  

• @barethetrooth

• Why people are RIGHTLY suspicious of #HurricaneMilton! Milton (which has now grown into a cat-3 hurricane) formed from a long-tracked tropical disturbance in the western Caribbean Sea, which is not typical for many hurricanes. It's extremely strange for a storm to form here and then track directly east across the Gulf towards Florida! This is the first time EVER there are 3 active Hurricanes in the Atlantic Basin in October. Also this will mean two major storms in short succession potentially making landfall very close to the same area.. very odd. When you add in the odd behavior and lack of response from FEMA.. it begins to paint a dark picture.. (video)
  

• @MarioNawful

• BREAKING: HACKERS BREACH AMERICAN WATER WORKS SYSTEMS | TARGET 14M+ CUSTOMERS. Hackers have compromised American Water Works, the largest regulated water supplier in the U.S., impacting over 14 million people in states including New Jersey, California, Pennsylvania, and Illinois, as well as 18 military bases. The Camden-based utility has shut down specific systems to prevent further risk, pledging there will be no late fees for affected customers.

• @GuntherEagleman

• WATCH: FOX conducted an investigation into illegal aliens voting in our elections and what they found is alarming. Infuriating. The workers union Launa is sending these pro Harris/Walz flyers out to migrant workers known not to be eligible to vote. When the investigators tried to reach out they were redirected to voicemail every time. How many more of these instances are happening behind closed doors? (video)

• @songpinganq
  

• New World Order Police In China. Helmets can measure the temperature of 100 people in two minutes. Immediately the helmet alerts police, if it detects your body temperature is over 37.3℃ or your vaccine passport expires, then police will come for you and send you off to a quarantine camp. (video)

• @JoeyMannarinoUS
  

• How are Democrats going to collect 9,000,000 overseas ballots from Americans when there are only 2.8 million eligible overseas voters? Most of these eligible voters don’t even vote. Why is no one ringing the alarm bells about this? This is about to be a major fraud issue if not addressed.

• @amuse
  

• ELECTION INTEGRITY: Democrats in Fulton County have overseen what may be one of the most corrupt or incompetent elections in modern history. They are now going after Trump with exaggerated RICO charges, while simultaneously ensuring that Republicans make up less than 2% of the county's election workers. This blatant lack of balance comes after Fulton County was at the heart of claims of electoral fraud in 2020, where thousands of duplicate ballots were allegedly counted. To add to the chaos, over 100,000 ballot tally sheets mysteriously went missing for months after the election. It's worth noting that Joe Biden "won" Georgia by a razor-thin margin of fewer than 13,000 votes in 2020, making any mishandling of the election process all the more significant. (pic)
  

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -1.25% to -.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 72.25 +.75 basis point.

• China Sovereign CDS 62.25 +1.0 basis point.
  
• China Iron Ore Spot 109.1 USD/Metric Tonne -1.0%

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 38.6 -.03%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 61.2 +3.0%.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 20.6 -.4%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.50%.

• S&P 500 futures unch.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.09%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by financial and consumer shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower.  The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Close at Session Lows on Hurricane Milton Fears, Surging Long-Term Rates, Escalating Mid-East Regional War Tensions, Telecom/Insurance Sector Weakness

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 38.6 -.3%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.65% +3.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 113.7 USD/Metric Tonne +2.7%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 40.2 euros/megawatt-hour -1.8%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 14.3 +.2 point
  

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -32.8 -3.3 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -2.1 +2.3 points
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(22 of 500 reporting) +18.4% unch.
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 267.07 +.18:  Growth Rate +14.5% unch., P/E 21.5 unch.
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.69% +3.0 basis points
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a n/a
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 365.88 +.66: Growth Rate +28.5% +.2 percentage point, P/E 31.5 +.4
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .90 +20.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .83 +8.0 basis points
  
• US Yield Curve 2.75 basis point (2s/10s) -2.75 basis points
  
• US Atlanta Fed 3Q GDPNow Forecast +2.54% unch.
  
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 48.6 -9.7 percentage points
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.58% unch.: CPI YoY +2.25% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.27 +3.0 basis points
  
• Highest target rate probability for Dec. 18th FOMC meeting: 72.9%(-7.3 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for Jan. 29th meeting: 61.0%(-8.8 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 4.75-5.0%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -242 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +2,229 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +121 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Lower:  On losses in my utility/consumer discretionary/biotech sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 25% Net Long
  

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Value -.9%
  

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Electric Vehicles +2.2% 2) Energy +.9% 3) Disk Drives +.8%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• SRRK, NAPA, EH, SMCI, DJT, HIMS, JKS, CSIQ, LQDA, VSTO, GRPN, APD, GNRC, GRPN, NOAH, CPNG, BECN, MSTR, FWRD, ACMR, DQ, LI, MDGL, FRO, CDNA, ATAT, CART, VITL, SVCO, AGX, SGML and MWA
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) ALTM 2) CHAU 3) FRO 4) CSIQ 5) DQ

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) ALTM 2) SMCI 3) LOBO 4) NAPA 5) SRRK
  

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) XLF 2) XRT 3) XLE 4) SOXX 5) XLY
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (PEP)/2.28
  

After the Close: 

• None of note
  

Economic Releases

6:00 am EST

• The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index for Sept. is estimated to rise to 92.0 versus 91.2 in Aug.

8:30 am EST

• The Trade Balance for Aug. is estimated at -$70.5B versus -$78.8B in July.

Upcoming Splits

• (NVEE) 4-for-1
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Bostic speaking, Fed's Kugler speaking, Fed's Jefferson speaking, 3Y T-Note auction, weekly US retail sales reports, (WYNN) investor meeting, (ED) business update, (PG) general meeting, (SIG) annual meeting and the (GM) investor day could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Afternoon Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -2.6% Below 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 11.6 +.3
  
• 9 Sectors Declining, 2 Sectors Rising
• 26.7% of Issues Advancing, 71.4% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms .60 unch.
  
• Non-Block Money Flow -$358.9M
  
• 117 New 52-Week Highs, 28 New Lows
• 58.4% (-2.2%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 66.0 unch.
  

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 61.0 +1.0%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 231.7 +.4%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 19,771.7 +.04%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 73.0 (GREED) unch.
  
• 1-Day Vix 12.2 -12.7%
  
• Vix 21.1 +10.0%
  
• Total Put/Call .84 -17.7%