Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Mid-Cap Value unch.
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Utilities -1.3% 2) REITs -.8% 3) Gold & Silver -.8%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• CSTL, GEO, ZYME, MOD, ACT, IMO, NSP, CTRA, ARCB, KTB, MDU, ETR, EVER, MTG, BJRI, WGS, CVNA, MSTR, TDS, WEAV, W, CAMT, AMCR, RDN, FOXF, VRRM, AES, NVT, ONTO, SMCI, ESNT, RMAX, AEHR, DBRG and MYGN
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) XRX 2) EMR 3) DBRG 4) TEAM 5) CAR
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) EPIX 2) CMLS 3) DBRG 4) MYGN 5) ESNT
  

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) XLF 2) XLE 3) XLK 4) XAR 5) XLV

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth +.9%
  

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Airlines +1.9% 2) Medical Equipment +1.7% 3) Restaurants +1.5%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• TILE, PRLB, MDGL, TEAM, MD, ADMA, WAT, AMSC, XMTR, MBLY, CAR, BTSG, CHTR, SEM, LBRDK, HALO, IDCC, SNCY, COHU, MCS, VERA, WSC, POWL, CRSP, LULU, ROOT, HIMS, SKYW, INTC, CAH, GTLS, FTAI, PTLO, AMZN, TGTX, COCO, MTZ, MGA, PZZA, PENG, DELL, TWLO, BHE, GTLS, DAY, ABT, SNAP, MRVL, MCK, FSLR, CSIQ, CHD, NTGR, GO, LECO, A, CMG, SIRI and AOSL
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) TEAM 2) DBRG 3) ARDX 4) LEN 5) DHI

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) TILE 2) GSAT 3) PRLB 4) TEAM 5) WAT
  

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) XLI 2) IGF 3) XLY 4) RING 5) MAGS
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Monday's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (AMG)/4.84
• (BNTX)/-1.47
• (CEG)/2.66
• (FOXA)/1.13
• (KRYS)/.99
• (MAR)/2.31
• (PEG)/.87
• (YUMC)/.66
• (ZTS)/1.46
  

After the Close: 

• (AIG)/1.10
• (ANDE)/.43
• (BWXT)/.77
• (AVB)/2.72
• (CRUS)/2.02
• (CLF)/-.31
• (FANG)/4.02
• (FN)/2.38
• (FWRD)/-.17
• (GT)/.22
• (ILMN)/.88
• (LSCC)/.24
• (NXPI)/3.43
• (PLTR)/.09
• (SANM)/1.36
• (WYNN)/1.04
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• Factory Orders for Sept. is estimated to fall -.5% versus a -.2% decline in Aug.
• Final Durable Goods Orders readings for Sept.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The 3Y T-Note auction and the CB Employment Trends Index for Oct. could also impact global trading on Monday.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +2.8% Above 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 13.0 +1.3
  
• 2 Sectors Declining, 9 Sectors Rising
• 63.7% of Issues Advancing, 34.0% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms 1.07 +9.2%
  
• Non-Block Money Flow -$110.5M
  
• 51 New 52-Week Highs, 29 New Lows
• 56.3% (+1.2%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 60.0 +1.0
  

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 62.1 +2.6%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 235.4 +1.7%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 20,049.0 +.63%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 52.0 (NEUTRAL) +5.0
  
• 1-Day Vix 10.8 -43.8%
  
• Vix 21.5 -7.3%
  
• Total Put/Call .95 -4.0%

Friday Watch

Around X:

• @elonmusk

• What’s going on @dominionvoting? (video)
• The vast majority of Americans support Voter ID. Well, then it should be implemented, given that we live in a democracy. (graph)
• We have an upside down system that makes it hard for highly talented people to come to America legally, but trivial for criminals to come here illegally. Why is easier to get in illegally as a murderer than legally as a Nobel Laureate?

• @LauraLoomer

• SCOOP: Senate GOP sources tell me @SenJohnThune and @JohnCornyn and their consultants have both seen my interview with @SenRickScott and they are very worried that the MAGA base is going to be activated over it. They are furious I played their anti Trump statements on air and had @ScottforFlorida react to them live on air. Good! We the loyal MAGA BASE are going to revolt against a Cornyn or Thune leadership installation. We won’t let you sabotage Trump 8 days after the Presidential election.

• @CollinRugg

• JUST IN: Photos released of Diddy & J.Lo arguing, the *same night* that Diddy is accused of r*ping a 13-year-old girl while two celebrities watched. If the allegation is true, the two celebrities *could* be in the photos you see below. According to a lawsuit, the girl went to lie down in bed after she felt woozy after being handed a drink. Diddy eventually entered the room with two celebrities, one a man and one a woman. "Celebrity A" held the girl down and r*ped her while Combs and "Celebrity B," a female, watched. After Celebrity A was done, Combs r*ped the girl while the other 2 watched.
• BREAKING: Donald Trump sues CBS News for $10 billion for "deceptively doctoring" Kamala Harris' 60-Minutes interview. Trump is directly accusing CBS of election interference to help Harris, according to Fox News. "CBS’ partisan and unlawful acts of election and voter interference through malicious, deceptive, and substantial news distortion calculated to confuse, deceive, and mislead the public," Trump's attorneys said. 
• JUST IN: The Kamala Harris campaign caught manipulating Community Notes to spread left-wing propaganda on X, according to the @FDRLST. The campaign is reportedly using a Discord server to swarm “hordes” of users to manipulate CN. The strategy is also being used to limit Community Notes from showing up on Kamala affiliated accounts. The goal is to “artificially manufacture consensus by making pro-Kamala Harris messages on social media appear more popular than they are.”
• JUST IN: Pollster Frank Luntz says President Biden may have lost Kamala Harris the election, says his "garbage" comment is "huge." CNN: Will Biden's comments move voters? Luntz: "It's gonna be huge because this is not some comedian saying something stupid and offensive at a rally." "Trump already seized this." "The basket of deplorables was significant, was meaningful in 2016." "I can promise you that this is gonna drive Trump turnout. He's doing it already." (video)

• @DC_Draino

• The Colorado voting machine password leak gets worse…again. SoS Jena Griswold leaked the passwords *months* ago, not 5 days ago as previously mentioned. However upon being informed of the “leak”, she withheld that scandal for 5 days from county clerks. Now Colorado is scrambling to fix all these potentially hacked voting machines 4 days before the election. She never thought people would find out. She tried to hide the “leak”. But she got caught and it’s a class 5 felony.
• Fun fact: Democrats always call it a “glitch” when they get caught. Social media censorship of the Trump/Rogan interview? “Just a glitch” Found fraudulent ballots mixed with real ones in Michigan? “Just a glitch” Voting machines not working in Maricopa? “Just a glitch”.

• @jackunheard
  

• ELECTION INTERFERENCE: Voters in Kentucky are reporting not being able to select Trump on voting machines. After multiple tries, it auto-selects Kamala. This is why we NEED paper ballots. (video)

• @glennbeck

• In 2020 the Left had a 5-step strategy for winning contested elections. This game plan is the same for 2024. They must win: The vote (Drop boxes, etc). The count (Lawfare). The certification (Jan 6th 2.0?). The electoral college ("Trump stole it!"). The transition (What?!). (video).

• @CharlieKirk11
  

• Maine holds an official student mock election every four years. This year more than 20,000 students voted, and Donald Trump won 51-42. That’s a great sign. Not only have Maine students picked the eventual winner in every race going back to 2004, this is Trump’s best result by far. In 2020 he lost to Biden by 8, and in 2016 he beat Hillary by only 2 points.

• @Braden240492621

• BREAKING: DUPLICATE VOTES EVERYWHERE IN MICHIGAN. 82,647 voters (allegedly) voted a total of 208,075 times as of October 28th. THEN. On October 29th, the SOS/VENDOR appears to have SCRUBBED ALL BUT ONE OF THOSE 82,647. This is according to official Michigan data. IS IT A COVERUP? (graph)

• @TrueTheVote

• ALERT! Why is Trump’s name either misspelled or obscured on ballots in 3 states: WI, VA, and OH? How could this go undetected until now? Will this impact scanner readings? Require provisional voting? Cause other ramifications? If you’ve voted on one of these ballots, what was your experience? (pic)

• @JamesOKeefeIII

• BREAKING: FEMA Whistleblower Goes Public, Reveals Agency’s Focus on “DEI Initiatives” Over Disaster Response: “There Are Higher Priorities Given to Different Racial Groups”. “The number one goal of FEMA is to instill equity in emergency management. It's not to save lives. It's not to create stronger communities that will weather future disasters,” revealed Kelsey Goodman, a Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) Hazard Mitigation Emergency Manager for REGION 4. Goodman has come forward to discuss concerns about FEMA’s response to recent disaster-stricken communities.

• @zerohedge
  

• "It Did Occur" - Kentucky County Clerk Confirms Voting Booth 'Glitch' Shifted Trump Votes To Kamala.

• @RepMTG
  

• Linemen just went on strike in NC after NOT being paid for 8 weeks by FEMA! Kamala’s admin sent electrical transformers and hundreds of billions to Ukraine and FEMA takes care of migrants. But won’t pay our linemen, who want to work & keep helping NC! (video)

• @WallStreetApes

• Happening Again: Levittown, Pennsylvania. Voters are being told to just fill out their registrations/ ballots and hand it to election workers, they will put them into the machine later. Pennsylvania doing everything possible to interfere in this election. “Hand it in to me, yeah I’ll do that”. (video)
• Another One: Man goes to vote but he’s already voted. JUST POSTED: “I was so excited to go and vote this year.. only to find out… apparently I’ve already voted” How can we even pretend America’s elections are fair if we don’t have a nationwide ID mandate? (video)
  

• @LibsofTiktok

• Meet Erie County, PA City Council President Jasmine Flores @FloresForErie. She posted this disgusting message blasting Trump supporters as racists and KKK members and suggests Black people who support Trump are "lost" and "embarrassing." She needs to resign!! (pic)

• @SidneyPowell1

• You can’t wear a #Trump shirt or cap to the polls but you can sure wear a garbage bag!! (video)
• County Election Clerk admits under sworn oath their ES&S voting system connects to the internet. Per @PeterBernegger. Surprise ending! The Wisconsin Election Commission (WEC) never approved connecting any voting system, machine, or device to the Internet. I've repeatedly asked them to show me the document certifying internet connection. They have never produced it. The six Commissioner will tell you to your face the voting machines are not connected to the internet. The truth is they do connect to the internet. See images below.

• @BehizyTweets
  

• BREAKING: Former Navajo Nation VP Myron Lizer just endorsed Trump on stage at the New Mexico rally and thanked Trump for taking unprecedented steps to help Native Americans. "Back in 2019, he signed the executive order that launched Operation Lady Justice, which helped and alleviate and sent resources to help us prosecute and find our missing and murdered Indigenous women." (video)
• WOW! Kari Lake hosted a roundtable with Arizonan black voters and asked how many of them were lifelong Democrats, and all but two raised their hands. They're ALL voting for Trump now! (video)
  

• @catturd

• Voting machines in Kentucky are literally changing the vote from Donald Trump to Kamala Harris. This is ELECTION INTERFERENCE! Share this video out so everyone can see! Funny how this always just goes one way, isn't it? (video)
  

• @BennyJohnson
  

• Fulton County, Georgia is home to the highest percentage of black Americans in the country. It’s also the county that is trying to put Trump in prison and gave him a mugshot. What happens if I hand out MAGA hats in the hood here? You’re not going to believe this… (video)

• @LaraLogan
  

• How do three members of the Supreme Court justify keeping non-citizens on the voter rolls? The constitution is clear. These people are truly power hungry maniacs.
• This is the CIA playbook, If you ever doubted you are in the midst of an intel operation… Democrats Plan for Color Revolution. (video)

• @TrumpWarRoom

• DISGUSTING: Top Kamala surrogate Mark Cuban says no "strong, intelligent women" support President Trump. They're now openly attacking the millions of strong, intelligent women fighting alongside President Trump every day to Make America Great Again. Will @KamalaHQ disavow? (video)

• @EndWokeness

• 198 House Democrats voted down a bill to require proof of citizenship to vote. (pic)

• @JohnBasham
  

• BREAKING: @DineshDSouza Has Posted His Entire New Movie Documentary, "Vindicating Trump" For Free On @YouTube. It's Fantastic! (video)
  

• @JacobMagid

• New: Trump has told Netanyahu that he wants Israel to wrap up the war in Gaza by the time he returns to office if he wins the election, two sources familiar with the matter revealed to @TimesofIsrael this week.

• @VigilantFox

• Mark Cuban Gets Met With Rude Awakening When Bill O'Reilly Fact Checks Him to His Face. (video)
• HUGE: Renowned feminist and ex-Clinton advisor endorses Donald Trump for president! “The people I voted for silenced my voice. They killed thousands of people and put the man [Steve Bannon] who tried to help me save the lives of thousands of people in prison. And at a certain point, you just have to stand up for what's right,” @naomirwolf told Bannon. Her reasons for voting for Trump are because she: (video)

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -1.25% to -.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 72.75 +1.25 basis points.

• China Sovereign CDS 64.5 +1.0 basis point.
  
• China Iron Ore Spot 102.6 USD/Metric Tonne -1.0%

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 38.1 -.04%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 61.1 +.9%.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 20.8 -.8%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.14%.

• S&P 500 futures +.10%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.26%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by technology and consumer shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Falling Substantially into Final Hour on Growing US Election Integrity Concerns, Escalating Mid-East Regional War Fears, Earnings Outlook Jitters, Tech/Road & Rail Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
  

• Volume: Above Average
  

• Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 23.0 +13.2%
• DJIA Intraday % Swing .68 -8.2%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 61.0 -3.7%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 183.3 -.75%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 10.0 -1.1%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 20.5 +19.4% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 130.0 -21.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call .94 +4.4%

• NYSE Arms .85 -11.5%
  
• NYSE Non-Block Money Flow -$184.5M 
  

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 53.7 +1.9%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 319.8 +2.3%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 194 +2
  

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 65.38 +1.9%
  
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 159.99 +1.7%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 126.0 basis points +1.0 basis point
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 72.26 +1.3%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 168.0 +1.7%
• Israel Sovereign CDS 132.85 +1.7%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 25.0 unch.

• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -22.25 basis points -.25 basis point
  

• 3M T-Bill Treasury Repo Spread -26.5 basis points -3.0 basis points
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -4.5 -.25 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 155.0 +4.0 basis points
  
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 684.0 +1.0 basis point
  
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 57.0 unch.
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 38.2 -.02%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.54% -3.0 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 102.8 USD/Metric Tonne -.90%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 40.60 euros/megawatt-hour -1.9%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 38.6 +3.2 points
  

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 4.3 +4.9 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -4.3 +.6 point
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(326 of 500 reporting) +9.1% +.4 percentage point
  
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 268.61 +.24:  Growth Rate +15.1% +.1 percentage point, P/E 21.3 -.5
  
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 12.70% +1.0 basis point
  
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(5 of 10 reporting) +24.7% -9.2 percentage points
  
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 372.42 +1.32: Growth Rate +30.8% +.5 percentage point, P/E 31.3 -1.3
  
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .75 unch.
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.15 -1.0 basis point
  
• US Yield Curve 10.75 basis point (2s/10s) -.75 basis point
  
• US Atlanta Fed Q4 GDPNow Forecast +2.66% -13.0 basis points
  
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 41.5% -.4 percentage point
  

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.74% +12.0 basis points: CPI YoY +2.56% unch.
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.33 -1.0 basis point
  
• Highest target rate probability for Dec. 18th FOMC meeting: 75.5%(+3.3 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for Jan. 29th meeting: 45.3%(+.6 percentage point) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 4.75-5.0%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -676 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +21 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +108 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Lower:  On losses in my tech/industrial/biotech/consumer discretionary sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  

• Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long