Friday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.5% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 68.75 +.75 basis point.

• China Sovereign CDS 44.25 +.75 basis point.
  
• China Iron Ore Spot 109.2 USD/Metric Tonne +.4%

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.4 -.2%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 78.0 +.2%.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 17.1 +.1%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.05%.

• S&P 500 futures -.05%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.04%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by industrial and tech shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Lower into Final Hour on Earnings Outlook Jitters, Tariff Concerns, Yen Strength, Consumer Discretionary/Financial Sector Weakness

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.4 +.4%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.31% -1.0 basis point

• China Iron Ore Spot 108.8 USD/Metric Tonne +.06%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 47.5 euros/megawatt-hour -1.6%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -.2 -.7 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 31.4 +.6 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 2.3 -.7 point
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(420 of 500 reporting) +10.5% -.1 percentage point
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 275.24 +.10:  Growth Rate +16.1% unch., P/E 22.2 -.1
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 11.88% +1.0 basis point
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(7 of 10 reporting) +26.6% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 406.23 +.30: Growth Rate +31.4% +.1 percentage point, P/E 33.8 -.4
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .85 -1.0 basis point
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.52 -13.0 basis points
• US Yield Curve 23.5 basis points (2s/10s) -2.5 basis points
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 Forecast +2.34% unch.
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 24.6% +.7 percentage point

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.66% unch.: CPI YoY +2.82% unch.
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.46 unch.
• Highest target rate probability for May 7th FOMC meeting: 77.6% (-9.3 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for June 18th meeting: 53.4%(-5.7 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -98 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +45 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +83 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Lower: On losses in my tech/financial/industrial/consumer discretionary sector longs 
• Disclosed Trades: None
• Market Exposure: 75% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Mid-Cap Growth -2.4%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) I-Banking -2.3% 2) Banks -2.3% 3) Internet -1.7%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• DAVA, APPN, GRMN, NCLH, PRAA, NWSA, PSN, CCL, PRAA, UPBD, BAND, RXRTX, COCO, LAMR, HOOD, DVA, WMT, DLO, WING, KVYO, ECO, AVPT, PLTR, TDOC, OSW, GLBE, FIHL, SDGR, ACVA, JXN, IOT, RDDT, FVRR, INOD, RDW, BYRN, SEDG, AXON, TEM, WGS, CORT, SHEN, FCN, APP, CVNA, WRD, NICE, EPAM, VTLE, FRPT, NRDS, TFII and TRUP

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) ANGI 2) TECK 3) SABR 4) SWTX 5) DBX

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) FRPT 2) CVNA 3) EPAM 4) JMIA 5) GRAB

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) XLE 2) XBI 3) KIE 4) GDXJ 5) ITA

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth -.6%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Gold & Silver +1.6% 2) Homebuilding +1.1% 3) Energy +1.0%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• U, AMPL, CADL, MD, CSTM, FTAI, HAS, DBRG, GDS, VNET, CWAN, SHAK, DRD, SWTX, BAX, AMN, BABA, RGEN, MFC, CYTK, BILI, FPI, NBIS, STM, HNRG, SBLK, COLD, EWTX, SMMT, HMY, SKT, BMRN, LKQ, ORA, MRUS, KAR, ICLR, UTZ, KC, LAUR, PAAS, REPL, JF, VAL, ORKA, CNR, DRS, MOD, OEC, SJM, METC, CIB, RS, ADEA, VALE, WB, BRKR, AGI and VICR

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) WBD 2) HLF 3) CYTK 4) YUM 5) FOXA

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) AMPL 2) SHAK 3) CWAN 4) BAX 5) MD

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) XLF 2) SMH 3) IGV 4) IGV 5) XLI

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (OIS)/.06
• (TDS)/-.34
• (VIPS)/5.06
  

After the Close: 

• (HE)/.39

Economic Releases

9:45 am EST

• The S&P Global US Manufacturing PMI report for Feb. is estimated to rise to 51.5 versus 51.2 in Jan.
• The S&P Global US Services PMI report for Feb. is estimated to rise to 53.0 versus 52.9 in Jan.
• The S&P Global US Composite PMI for Feb. is estimated to rise to 53.2 versus 52.7 in Jan.
  

10:00 am EST

• Final Univ. of Mich. Consumer Sentiment readings for Feb. 
• Existing Home Sales for Jan. is estimated to fall to 4.13M versus 4.24M in Dec.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Jefferson speaking, Bloomberg Feb. US Economic Survey, US Baker Hughes weekly oil rig count and the weekly CFTC speculative net positioning report could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +25.4% Above 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 13.0 -4.5
• 8 Sectors Declining, 3 Sectors Rising
• 34.9% of Issues Advancing, 62.9% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms .81 -23.6%
  
• Non-Block Money Flow -$322.6M
  
• 44 New 52-Week Highs, 42 New Lows
• 54.0% (-3.8%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 55.4 -4.2

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 77.7 -.5%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 246.4 -.6%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 21,240.7 +.1%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 45.0 (NEUTRAL) -2.0
• 1-Day Vix 10.8 +15.6%
  
• Vix 15.9 +4.4%
  
• Total Put/Call .78 +13.3%