Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +24.3% Above 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 11.6 -1.0
• 4 Sectors Declining, 7 Sectors Rising
• 60.5% of Issues Advancing, 36.9% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms .88 -36.7%
  
• Non-Block Money Flow +$16.9M
  
• 43 New 52-Week Highs, 45 New Lows
• 50.7% (+3.0%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 52.8 +7.4

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 73.8 +1.7%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 240.2 +1.2%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 20,778.6 +1.1%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 24.0 (EXTREME FEAR) +2.0
• 1-Day Vix 14.0 -4.1%
  
• Vix 18.2 -6.4%
  
• Total Put/Call .86 -7.5%

Wednesday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.75% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 68.5 -.5 basis point.

• China Sovereign CDS 46.75 -.75 basis point.
  
• China Iron Ore Spot 106.3 USD/Metric Tonne +.3%

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.3 -.04%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 72.1 -.4%.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 18.3 -1.0%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.40%.

• S&P 500 futures +.19%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.32%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by real estate and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Modestly Lower into Final Hour on Global Growth Worries, Earnings Outlook Jitters, Yen Strength, Tech/Gambling Sector Weakness

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.4 +.07%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.28% -1.0 basis point

• China Iron Ore Spot 106.1 USD/Metric Tonne -.07%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 44.3 euros/megawatt-hour -6.1%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -7.7 -2.2 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 19.1 -.1 point

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 1.8 +.4 point
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(444 of 500 reporting) +12.1% +.3 percentage point
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 275.67 +.13:  Growth Rate +16.3% unch., P/E 21.6 -.3
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 11.80% +1.0 basis point
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(7 of 10 reporting) +26.6% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 407.09 +.20: Growth Rate +31.6% unch., P/E 31.6 -1.0
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .60 -5.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.51 unch.
• US Yield Curve 19.5 basis points (2s/10s) -3.5 basis points
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 Forecast +2.34% unch.
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 28.8% +3.3 percentage points

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.66% unch.: CPI YoY +2.83% +1.0 basis point
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.39 -3.0 basis points
• Highest target rate probability for May 7th FOMC meeting: 72.6% (+.2 percentage point) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for June 18th meeting: 51.8%(+3.0 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -177 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +12 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +202 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my consumer discretionary/industrial sector longs and index hedges
• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
• Market Exposure: Moved to 50% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Mid-Cap Growth -1.2%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Digital Health -2.7% 2) Gambling -2.1% 3) Alt Energy -2.0%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• BSX, KBR, DKNG, BEAM, FLUT, XYZ, ELAN, IRTC, MMYT, VST, LPLA, ZETA, SEI, JACK, APP, COHR, IBKR, FIVN, RYTM, CRNX, AMSC, U, TARS, CRNX, AMSC, PODD, HOOD, LMND, COIN, RVLV, PLNT, PONY, ZM, XMTR, TSLA, SMCI, TILE, TCOM, AORT, CELH, VCYT, RDW, KTB, MYGN, AAOI, TEM, SRE, HIMS and UCTT

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) IQ 2) KOS 3) IEF 4) NU 5) ZM

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) BTDR 2) CHGG 3) HIMS 4) MSTR 5) MRVI

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) XLU 2) IAI 3) XLE 4) GDX 5) IXN

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Value +.3%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Homebuilding +3.8% 2) REITs +1.4% 3) Restaurants +1.3%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• AHCO, EVER, DFH, FARO, GSHD, JBTM, PRA, AXGN, IART, VVX, LI, DOCN, SOLV, PTLO, ITRI, CAPR, PRIM, SNN, VIPS, SIBN, LGIH, WEX, AMT, ECG, TASK, YY, SEE, RKT, CECO, CENX, BMO, BILI, XPEV, ARHS, AAP, NWG, HRMY, MOH, BEKE, EPC, SBLK, SHYF, BABA, BJRI, HD, BCC, DHI, NTST, WMT, JBGS, STRL, CSTM, BWXT, TOL, DB, HSBC, MOD, CI and AWK

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) GCI 2) CFG 3) INFY 4) XLI 5) XHB

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) EVER 2) GSHD 3) DFH 4) DOCN 5) UFPT

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) XLC 2) IGV 3) SMH 4) XLP 5) XRT

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (AAP)/-1.26
• (BLMN)/.37
• (BCO)/1.89
• (DOLE)/.08
• (EME)/5.76
• (FSS)/.87
• (LOW)/1.84
• (NRG)/1.61
• (TJX)/1.16
• (UTHR)/6.40
  

After the Close: 

• (A)/1.27
• (AMBA)/-.02
• (EBAY)/1.20
• (FE)/.71
• (FWRD)/-.18
• (FTAI)/.90
• (IONQ)/-.25 
• (MYRG)/.70
• (NVDA)/.85
• (CRM)/2.61
• (SNOW)/.18
• (SNPS)/2.79
• (TDOC)/-.26
• (URBN)/.94
• (APA)/.96
• (AI)/-.25
• (DLTR)/2.20
  

Economic Releases

10:00 am EST

• New Home Sales for Jan. is estimated to fall to 680K versus 698K in Dec.
  

10:30 am EST

• Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory gain of +2,510,140 barrels versus a +4,633,000 barrel gain the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to fall by -500,430 barrels versus a -151,000 barrel decline the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to fall by -2,258,860 barrels versus a -2,051,000 barrel decline the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to fall by -.24% versus a -.1% decline prior.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Bostic speaking, Fed's Barkin speaking, 7Y T-Note auction, weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report, (DE) annual meeting, (MMM) investor day, BofA Ag/Materials Conference, Wolfe Research Software Conference, BMO Metals/Mining/Critical Metals Conference and the Susquehanna Tech Conference could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST