Weekly Scoreboard*

S&P 500 5,091.0 -8.5%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Weekly Market Wrap by Edward Jones.

Indices

• DJIA 38,507.9 -7.6%

• NASDAQ 15,660.0 -9.8%

• Russell 2000 1,819.4 -10.0%

• NYSE FANG+ 10,448.0 -9.6%

• Goldman 50 Most Shorted 166.2 -13.2%

• Wilshire 5000 50,221.3 -9.1%

• Russell 1000 Growth 3,303.3 -9.0%

• Russell 1000 Value 1,686.3 -8.1%

• S&P 500 Consumer Staples 861.6 -2.0%

• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index(Ex Telecom) 221.4 -5.1%
  

• NYSE Technology 4,471.5 -11.8%

• Transports 13,115.3 -9.9%

• Utilities 968.7 -4.2%

• Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 119.2 -13.8%
  

• MSCI Emerging Markets 40.4 -7.5%

• Credit Suisse AllHedge Long/Short Equity Index 218.11 -.36%

• Credit Suisse AllHedge Equity Market Neutral Index 119.87 +.23%

Sentiment/Internals

• NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 533,383 -.42%
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 8.1 -35.2%

• Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index -1,631 -1,438

• Crude Oil Commercial Bullish % Net Position -20.7 -.8%

• CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 180,558 +8.2%

• CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,783,978 +.88%

• Total Put/Call 1.37 +36.6%

• OEX Put/Call .75 -.54%

• ISE Sentiment 84.0 -23.0 points
  

• NYSE Arms .92 -26.5%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 45.6 -42.3%
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.39 -70.0 basis points
• Bloomberg European Financial Conditions Index 1.13 -29.0 basis points
  

• Volatility(VIX) 42.1 +88.6%
• S&P 500 Intraday % Swing 3.39 +265.3%

• CBOE S&P 500 3M Implied Correlation Index 42.1 +59.6%

• G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 9.30 +13.6%
  

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 9.6 +2.2%

• Smart Money Flow Index 20,465.4 -.9%
• NAAIM Exposure Index  49.4 -8.2

• ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $7.032 Trillion +.25%

• ICI Domestic Equity Long-Term Mutual Fund/ETFs Weekly Flows +$12.656 Million

• AAII % Bulls 20.8 -20.4%

• AAII % Bears 61.9 +18.6%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 5.0 (EXTREME FEAR) -18.0

Futures Spot Prices

• CRB Index 303.6 -1.1%

• Crude Oil 61.8/bbl. -10.4%

• Reformulated Gasoline 204.8 -8.3%

• Natural Gas 3.87 -5.6%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 36.4 euros/megawatt-hour -10.0%
  

• Heating Oil 208.3 -7.7% 
• Newcastle Coal 99.0 (1,000/metric ton) -4.4%
  

• Gold 3,023.4 -1.7%
• Silver 29.3 -13.3%
  

• S&P GSCI Industrial Metals Index 442.6 -4.4%

• Copper 440.4 -13.9%

• US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 372.0 USD/Metric Tonne -1.1%

• China Iron Ore Spot 97.9 USD/Metric Tonne -3.1%
• China Battery Grade Lithium Carbonate 10,250.0 USD/metric tonne -1.2%

• CME Lumber  591.0 -12.8%

• UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,440.5 -.5%
• US Gulf NOLA Potash Spot 315.0 USD/Short Ton +.8%

Economy

• Atlanta Fed GDPNow 2Q Forecast -2.85% -5.0 basis points

• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 45.4% +9.5 percentage points

• NY Fed Real-Time Weekly Economic Index 2.28 +10.1%

• US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 417.7 +53.6%
• DOGE Total Taxpayer Dollars Saved $140.0 Billion($915.03 Savings Per Taxpayer) +$10.0 Billion
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(18 of 500 reporting) +7.5% -.9 percentage point

• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 278.42 +.32:  Growth Rate +13.4% +.4 percentage point, P/E 19.4 -1.1
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.58% +2.0 basis points
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 418.68 +.90: Growth Rate +21.1% +.3 percentage point, P/E 26.3 -2.3
  

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -3.3 -.2 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 14.6 -4.5 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 3.1 -3.5 points

• Fed Fund Futures imply 35.1%(+16.6 percentage points) chance of -25.0 basis point cut to 4.0-4.25%, 64.9%(-16.6 percentage points) chance of no change, 0.0%(unch.) chance of +25.0 basis point hike to 4.5-4.75% on 5/7

• US Dollar Index 102.96 -1.1%

• MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,758.4 +.08%
  

• Bitcoin/USD 83,070.0 +1.2%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 180.24 -.69%
  

• Yield Curve(2s/10s) 32.25 -2.0 basis points
  

• 10-Year US Treasury Yield 3.93% -32.0 basis points

• Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $6.677 Trillion -.26%
  
• Federal Reserve's Discount Window Usage $2.259 Billion -10.8%

• U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 44.77 +12.0%
  

• Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 300.5 +8.4%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 119.0 +7.0 basis points
• UK Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 21.0 +4.9%

• China Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 60.4 +18.6%
  

• Brazil Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 201.3 +7.8%
  

• Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 109.8 +22.6%

• South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 42.0 +12.4%

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 23.69 -1.9%
• China High-Yield Real Estate Total Return Index 119.0 -.82%
  

• Atlanta Fed Low Skill Wage Growth Tracker YoY +4.0% unch.
• Zillow US All Homes Rent Index YoY +3.4% unch.
• US Urban Consumers Food CPI YoY +2.6% unch.
• CPI Core Services Ex-Shelter YoY +3.9% unch.
• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.68% unch.: CPI YoY +2.49% +2.0 basis points
  
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 3.30% +14.0 basis points

• Treasury Repo 3M T-Bill Spread -10.5 basis points -5.75 basis points
  
• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -21.0 -4.0 basis points

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -4.25 -4.5 basis points

• N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 73.20 +19.1%
  

• America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 248.0 +20.5% 
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 259.0 +48.0
  

• European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 84.1 +23.9%
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 189.7 +23.4%

• Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 212.1 +14.9%
  

• MBS 5/10 Treasury Spread 149.0 +8.0 basis points
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 616.0 +16.0 basis points
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS .60 +1.0 basis point

• M2 Money Supply YoY % Change +3.9% unch.

• Commercial Paper Outstanding $1,394.8B +.2%

• 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 223,000 -.56%
  

• Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.3% +10.0 basis points
• Kastle Back-to-Work Barometer(entries in secured buildings) 53.63 +.69%
  

• Average 30-Year Fixed Home Mortgage Rate 6.71% -4.0 basis points

• Weekly Mortgage Applications 243,600 -1.6%

• Weekly Retail Sales +5.3% -20.0 basis points
• OpenTable US Seated Diners % Change YoY -1.0% -2.0 percentage points
• Box Office Weekly Gross $79.5M +7.2%

• Nationwide Gas $3.27/gallon +.11/gallon

• Baltic Dry Index 1,540.0 -3.9%
• Drewry World Container Freight Index $2,207.7/40 ft Box +1.8%
  

• China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 1,102.7 +1.8%

• Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 30.0 unch.
• Truckstop.com Market Demand Index 85.0 +9.0%

• Rail Freight Carloads 277,688 +2.4%
• TSA Total Traveler Throughput 2,619,267 +11.6%
  

Best Performing Style

• Large-Cap Value -7.6%
  

Worst Performing Style

• Small-Cap Value -10.6%

Leading Sectors

• Homebuilding +.3%

• Foods unch.
• Healthcare Providers unch.

• Utilities -2.7%
  

• Retail -4.8%
  

Lagging Sectors

• Airlines -14.4%
  

• Energy -14.9%
  

• Semis -15.7%

• Computer Hardware -18.8%
  

• Oil Service -19.9%
  

Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (8)

• ALMS, IBP, DHI, SLP, GME, MHO, RKT and GRBK

Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (103)

• KMPR, YUMC, JHX, JD, HWM, PBR, ZK, PTY, DEC, COHR, LUV, OKE, NOG, OKE, SPR, APO, BHF, LNG, GGAL, GFI, OWL, GEG, DD, WDC, HTHT, YPF, ARES, DB, BIDU, EWTX, KRUS, ENTG, TWO, GEV, BHVN, AYI, SLB, VST, DVN, BKR, QFIN, PAAS, DVN, MEOH, HTHT, YPF, BIDU, GFI, TWO, HOOD, VIST, AYI, BKR, TECK, ALB, BABA, ECO, FANG, SG, BHVN, MRVL, BTU, DRD, RRC, FWRD, CHX, MU, EQT, EH, FRO, BBAR, EQH, PBF, FCX, QDEL, FLEX, VAL, MTDR, JKS, VRT, AR, UPST, NVGS, GEHC, SUPV, AFRM, CENX, TBBK, SDRL, APA, BILI, NE, WDS, BE, TEN, OVV, INOD, WFRD, APP, FUTU, VTLE, NBR and SNDK

ETFs

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

Stocks

• High-Volume Gainers

• High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change

Stocks Plunging into Afternoon on China's Trade War Escalation, Global Growth Fears, Surging Global Debt Angst, Tech/Commodity Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Declining

• Volume: Very Heavy

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 42.2 +40.8%
• S&P 500 Intraday % Swing 3.4 +118.6%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 40.6 -20.4%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 180.88 -.7%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.6 +2.2%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 41.2 +22.9% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 83.0 -28.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call 1.35 +17.4%

• NYSE Arms .91 -33.6%
• NYSE Non-Block Money Flow -$189.2M 
  

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 72.4 +8.7%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 499.3 +12.4%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 259.0 +19.0

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 84.1 +15.0%
  
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 189.7 +14.5%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 119.0 basis points +7.0 basis points

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 95.8 +7.3%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 211.9 +8.0%
• Israel Sovereign CDS 109.8 +11.5%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 23.69 -.86%

• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -21.0 basis points -2.0 basis points

• 3M T-Bill Treasury Repo Spread -9.5 basis points -4.75 basis points

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -4.25 -4.5 basis points
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 147.0 +1.0 basis point
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 616.0 +13.0 basis points
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 60.0 unch.

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.6 -.9%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.27% -2.0 basis points

• China Iron Ore Spot 97.6 USD/Metric Tonne -3.0%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 36.4 euros/megawatt-hour -7.2%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -3.3 +3.9 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 14.6 -2.8 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 3.1 -.7 point
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(18 of 500 reporting) +7.5% unch.
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 278.42 -.02:  Growth Rate +13.4% unch., P/E 18.6 -1.0
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.58% +1.0 basis point
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 418.68 unch.: Growth Rate +21.1% unch., P/E 25.2 -1.5
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.39 -48.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.13 -18.0 basis points
• US Yield Curve 31.5 basis points (2s/10s) -1.5 basis points
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 Forecast -2.8% +.9 percentage point
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 45.4% +6.7 percentage points

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.68% unch.: CPI YoY +2.49% unch.
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.18 -12.0 basis points
• Highest target rate probability for June 18th FOMC meeting: 67.7% (+4.9 percentage points) chance of 4.5%-4.25%. Highest target rate probability for July 30th meeting: 64.0%(+14.2 percentage points) chance of 3.75%-4.0%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -1,100 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -529 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +189 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Lower: On losses in my consumer discretionary/industrial/tech/financial sector longs
• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and to my emerging market shorts
• Market Exposure: Moved to Market Neutral

Monday's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• None of note

After the Close: 

• (PLAY)/.67
• (GBX)/1.78
• (LEVI)/.28

Economic Releases

3:00 pm EST

• Consumer Credit for March.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Kugler speaking, Needham Healthcare Conference and the (AOS) annual meeting could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Friday Watch

Around X:

• @elonmusk

• The DNC, Chuck Schumer, and Hakeem Jeffries are suing Trump over his EO to block non-citizens from voting. This should tell you everything you need to know… Wow. (pic)
• CNN ACCIDENTALLY ADMITS IT: SOROS IS OK BECAUSE HE HIDES IN THE SHADOWS. Jake Tapper and Kara Swisher just revealed the incredible double standard in their coverage of political donors. When discussing Elon's Wisconsin involvement, Tapper openly admitted: "You don't see George Soros out there talking, right? I mean, they might be giving money to organizations". Amazing. (video)
  

• @joshdcaptan

• Trump on DOGE: "They found something today that's horrible. You'll find out very soon. What they found is incredible." (video)

• @JimFergusonUK

• WHY DOESN’T AMERICA GO AFTER GEORGE & ALEXANDER SOROS? While the DOJ plays whack-a-mole with low-level vandals and stooges... The real architects of chaos walk free — untouched, unseen, and well-funded. The Soros network has poured millions into DA races, judicial campaigns, and NGO activism that’s eroding law and order across the nation. Rogue judges. Organized riots. Lawfare against political opponents. These things don’t happen by accident — they happen with money, strategy, and protection from the top.

• @BillAckman

• My advice to foreign leaders is that if you have not already reached out to President
  @realDonaldTrump, you need to do so immediately. Trump is, at his core, a dealmaker who sees the world as a series of transactions. Based on his track record to date with foreign governments, law firms, and universities, he is a tough, but fair negotiator. He loves to make deals and he loves to get things done promptly. I expect Trump will reward the early dealmakers with fairer deals than those that wait to sit down at the negotiating table. Countries that respond with additional tariffs on our goods will be severely punished. The carrot and the stick writ large, Big Boy style. The Art of the Deal will soon be sold out on @amazon. But if you are running a foreign country that is now subject to massive tariffs, don't wait to read the book. Just pick up the phone. Call the President, and make a deal. Just some advice from a friend of the global economy.

• @Inevitablewest

• BREAKING: Italian PM Giorgia Meloni has officially banned the use of gender-neutral and non-binary symbols in all public schools. Only "boy" or "girl" will be allowed. Meloni is fighting back.

• @BehizyTweets

• Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick just exposed a method foreign countries have used for decades to cheat the United States in trade. "Some countries have a value-added tax and they take that VAT tax of 20% and they use it to subsidize the production of their domestic industries. That's why we can't sell cars there because they give a rebate." And these countries have the gall to act shocked that the United States is finally acting. (video)

• @Libsoftiktok

• NYC Mayor Eric Adams recommends all New Yorkers read FBI Director Kash Patel's book on the deep state in order to understand why he was targeted. (video)

• @WallStreetApes

• NEW: Texas passes resolution declaring March 23 as 'Pakistan Day'. Yes, this is real. We now have an official 'Pakistan Day' in America. The same state who’s allowing Epic City to be built for a Muslim only community. (video)

• @annvandersteel

• BREAKING. Evidence of PLANNED election fraud using extra ballots dropped based on votes tallied to get a Democrat win in Wisconsin race on Tuesday.

• @CharlieShrem

• Tariffs are not the story! Since Trump took office in Jan 2025, the 10-year yield has dropped from 4.79% to 4.17%. Look how much it’s dropped today! That 0.62% drop may not sound like much—until you realize the U.S. has $36.5 trillion in debt. This is stealth refinancing on a historic scale. Lower yields = trillions in interest savings. More breathing room. Less inflationary pressure. And the market is front-running it. Everyone’s watching tariffs. But this yield curve shift? It’s the real game. Trump isn’t just cutting spending— he’s restructuring America’s balance sheet in real time.

• @DiligentDenizen

• CONGRATS: After meeting with@LauraLoomer, President Trump fired 6, SIX, Mike Waltz staffers involved with the Signalgate debacle. Loomer proves that citizen journalists & independent media CAN MAKE A DIFFERENCE. Congratulations on your vindication Laura, you've earned it.

• @mattgaetz  

• Why is the Florida Legislature advancing a bill to give immunity to PESTICIDE makers? (pic)

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -2.0% to -1.0% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 91.25 +1.5 basis points.

• China Sovereign CDS 59.25 +5.75 basis points.
  
• China Iron Ore Spot 101.0 USD/Metric Tonne -.8%

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.9 -.02%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 55.9 -3.3%.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 23.8 -1.8%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.32%.

• S&P 500 futures -.19%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures -.05%.  

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are lower, weighed down by technology and consumer discretionary shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Falling Sharply into Afternoon on Escalating Global Trade War Tensions, Global Growth Fears, Earnings Outlook Jitters, Tech/Energy Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Declining

• Volume: Heavy

• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 27.8 +29.5%
• S&P 500 Intraday % Swing 1.5 -19.4%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 61.0 -9.0%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 180.9 -.5%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.7 +3.1%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 31.8 +44.8% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 115.0 -7.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call 1.07 +12.6%

• NYSE Arms 1.19 +33.7%
• NYSE Non-Block Money Flow -$40.0M 
  

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 64.9 +5.6%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 437.1 +11.8%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 240.0 +1.0

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 73.0 +6.2%
  
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 165.3 +3.4%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 112.0 basis points +2.0 basis points

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 89.2 +7.5%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 194.2 +4.0%
• Israel Sovereign CDS 98.5 +5.1%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 23.9 -.5%

• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -19.0 basis points -1.5 basis points

• 3M T-Bill Treasury Repo Spread -4.75 basis points -.75 basis point

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap .25 unch.
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 146.0 -2.0 basis points
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 603.0 +1.0 basis point
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 60.0 unch.

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.9 +.2%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.29% -1.0 basis point

• China Iron Ore Spot 100.9 USD/Metric Tonne -.9%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 39.2 euros/megawatt-hour -5.0%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -7.2 -2.4 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 17.4 +5.7 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 3.8 -2.3 points
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(18 of 500 reporting) +7.5% -.9 percentage point
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 278.44 -.04:  Growth Rate +13.4% -.1 percentage point, P/E 19.6 -.7
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.57% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 418.68 +.07: Growth Rate +21.1% unch., P/E 26.7 -1.4
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .09 +1.0 basis point
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.31 -10.0 basis points
• US Yield Curve 33.0 basis points (2s/10s) +4.5 basis points
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 Forecast -3.7% unch.
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 38.7% +1.0 percentage point

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.68% unch.: CPI YoY +2.49% unch.
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.30 -3.0 basis points
• Highest target rate probability for June 18th FOMC meeting: 64.0% (+3.4 percentage points) chance of 4.5%-4.25%. Highest target rate probability for July 30th meeting: 50.4%(+11.4 percentage points) chance of 3.75%-4.0%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -680 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -74 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +210 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Lower: On losses in my consumer discretionary/industrial/tech/financial sector longs
• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and to my emerging market shorts
• Market Exposure: Moved to Market Neutral