Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (ABT)/1.07
• (ASML)/6.16
• (ALV)/1.66
• (ALV)/1.66
• (CFG)/.75
• (TRV)/.81
• (USB)/.98
  

After the Close: 

• (AA)/1.65
• (OZK)/1.41
• (CSX)/.37
• (KMI)/.35
• (SLG)/1.32
• (SNV)/1.12
• (LVS)/.59
• (PGR)/4.79
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• Retail Sales Advance MoM for March is estimated to rise +1.3% versus a +.2% gain in Feb.
• Retail Sales Ex Autos MoM for March is estimated to rise +.4% versus a +.3% gain in Feb.
• Retail  Sales Ex Autos and Gas for March is estimated to rise +.6% versus a +.5% gain in Feb. 
• NY Fed Services Business Activity Index for April is estimated to rise to -12.4 versus -19.3 in March.

9:15 am EST

• Industrial Production MoM for March is estimated to fall -.2% versus a +.7% gain in Feb.
• Capacity Utilization for March is estimated to fall to 77.9% versus 78.2% in Feb.
• Manufacturing Production for March is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.9% gain in Feb.

10:00 am EST

• Business Inventories for Feb. is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.3% gain in Jan.
• The NAHB Housing Market Index for April is estimated to fall to 38.0 versus 39.0 in March.

4:00 pm EST

• Net Long-Term TIC Flows for Feb.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Powell speaking, Fed's Hammack speaking, Fed's Schmid speaking, Atlanta Fed GDPNow 1Q update, 20Y bond auction, weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report, BofA Auto Summit, (RF) annual meeting, (HUM) annual meeting and the (EQT) annual meeting could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -10.5% Below 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 15.5 -2.0
• 2 Sectors Declining, 9 Sectors Rising
• 69.8% of Issues Advancing, 28.7% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms 1.45 +27.2%
  
• Non-Block Money Flow -$9.7M
  
• 23 New 52-Week Highs, 13 New Lows
• 25.2% (+5.4%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 46.3 +1.7

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 57.0 +1.9%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 224.2 -.12%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 19,746.7 -.1%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 20.0 (EXTREME FEAR) +1.0
• 1-Day Vix 21.3 -25.4%
  
• Vix 28.9 -6.4%
  
• Total Put/Call 1.0 -1.0%

Tuesday Watch

Around X:

• @elonmusk

• Elon Musk: If the bureaucracy is preventing the president from implementing what the people want, then we live in a bureaucracy, not a democracy. (video)
• Since its inception George Soros’s Open Society Foundation has given Democrat NGOs and candidates 32 BILLION DOLLARS. Talk about oligarchy. Yup.
• RARE EARTHS AREN’T RARE—CHINA OWNS THE REFINING, NOT THE MINES. Elon’s right: rare earth minerals are found all over the world—including in the U.S.—but China controls over 85% of global refining. That’s the chokehold. The problem isn’t digging the stuff up. It’s turning it into magnets for EVs, missiles, and wind turbines. Even U.S.-mined material often gets sent to China for processing. Until America rebuilds its heavy industry, it will stay dependent. The minerals are here—but the power is still there.
  

• @MarioNawful

• NGOS RAN A PARALLEL GOVERNMENT UNDER BIDEN—AND NO ONE VOTED FOR IT. What started as humanitarian aid turned into an unaccountable empire. NGOs had the funding, the infrastructure, and the cover of virtue—but no voters, no oversight, and no checks. Under Biden, they didn’t just assist the government—they became it. From day one, they executed policies outside the chain of command: mass immigration, ideological programming, and public manipulation—without ever facing the public. This wasn’t a glitch. It was the plan. While officials dodged blame, NGOs operated in the shadows—a bloodless coup hiding in plain sight. 
• EXTREME LEFTISTS DEFEND CHILD SACRIFICE AS “SPIRITUAL”—YES, REALLY. 3 toddlers under the age of 4 were found buried at a Teotihuacan altar in Guatemala—sacrificed in blood-soaked rituals to ancient gods. And how does the radical academic left respond? By defending it. Archaeologist María Belén Méndez claims this wasn’t violence at all—just a “connection with celestial bodies.” This is the modern progressive mindset: romanticize ritual child murder, rewrite barbarism as cultural nuance, and call depravity “divine.” These are the same people lecturing you about morality, history, and who should run society. If you ever needed proof the far-left has completely lost its moral compass—this is it. (pic)
• MIKE BENZ: THE BAR ASSOCATION TOOK $40 MILLION IN GRANTS AND IS SHAPING FOREIGN COURTS. "Look at these grants. $10 million from USAID, $4 million from USAID, $4 million from USAID, $5 million from USAID. $22 million from USAID and $17 million from the State Department. The American Bar Association has gotten $40 million in just these grants alone.” (video) 
• INFLATION COOLS TO 4-YEAR LOW WHILE TRUMP TACKLES TRADE IMBALANCE. U.S. inflation dropped to 2.4% in March, lowest since early 2021. Core inflation fell below 3% for first time in three years as gas prices dipped 10%. Housing costs show signs of improvement at 4.0%, the slowest increase since November 2021. Trump's strategic tariff plan aims to strengthen American manufacturing while markets already anticipate 66% chance of June rate cut. (graph)
• MILEI: ARGENTINA IS READY TO SIGN TRUMP’S RECIPROCAL TRADE PLAN. "At the commercial level, we understand the proposal of Aracela Recíproco that President Trump elaborated, and we are ready to sign a commercial agreement on this line. Greater commercial integration means citizens of both nations can access better goods and services at better prices."
  

• @zerohedge

• Wall Street making an absolute killing. (graph)
• *HARVARD HIT WITH $2.2 BLN FUNDING FREEZE AFTER DEFYING TRUMP.
• speaking of self-inflicted wounds, US debt increase while Janet Yellen was in charge of Fed or US Treasury : $15 trillion.
• OPEC Lowers 2025 Oil Demand Forecast On Trade Tensions.
• China Would Lose A 'Trade War' With The US... "Gradually, Then Suddenly".
• BESSENT: SAYS LONG WAY FROM NEEDING CONTINGENCY PLANS. SAYS "SURE" WHEN ASKED IF ALL OPTIONS ON THE TABLE, SAYS TREASURY HAS BIG TOOLKIT, COULD BOOST BUYBACKS.
• *BESSENT: SOMETIME IN THE FALL FOR DISCUSSING NEXT FED CHAIR.
• Treasury Yields Tumble As S&P Suffers 'Death Cross', Dollar Decline Continues.  

• @MikeZaccardi

• Mag 7 cheapest in more than 2 years. (graph)

• @JackPosobiec

• ADHD WAS A NATIONAL SCAM THAT TARGETED YOUNG BOYS. THIS WAS CRIMINAL. THE NYT JUST ADMITTED IT. (video)

• @TPV_John

• “REAL ID is just your drivers license, silly…What is wrong with you?!” “You will only need REAL ID to fly.” “REAL ID will be used for Voter ID.” Meanwhile, the UNITED NATIONS is literally rolling out a “Journey Pass” which will utilize FULL BIOMETRICS, by way of scrapping all physical boarding passes and this WILL be rolled out to all airports across the world over the next three years, and MANDATORY compliance will be required if you want to fly… This WILL lead directly to the DIGITAL ID, and the coming SOCIAL CREDIT SYSTEM, you know, like the one they utilize in Communist China. Yea, that is EXACTLY where this leads…

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are unch. to +1.0% on average. 
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 107.75 -8.0 basis points. 
• China Sovereign CDS 70.75 -2.25 basis points.
• China Iron Ore Spot 97.6 USD/Metric Tonne -.54%
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.95 -.28%.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.8 -.05%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 55.2 -1.2%.
• US 10-Year Yield 4.36% -1.0 basis point
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 25.7 +.01%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.21%. 
• S&P 500 futures -.14%. 
• NASDAQ 100 futures -.16%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly higher, boosted by financial and consumer discretionary shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Rising into Final Hour on Lower Long-Term Rates, Diminished Global Trade War Fears, Short-Covering, Biotech/Utility Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Falling

• Volume: Heavy

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 42.5 +26.5%
• S&P 500 Intraday % Swing 3.8 +82.8%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 48.0 -8.6%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 182.1 +1.4%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.7 -3.8%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 46.0 +17.1% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 108.0 -21.0 points
  

• Total Put/Call 1.10 +4.8%

• NYSE Arms .89 +423.5%
• NYSE Non-Block Money Flow -$285.1M 
  

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 71.8 +5.7%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 533.1 +4.6%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 330.0 -18.0

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 81.9 -10.6%
  
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 188.5 -10.8%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 121.0 basis points -8.0 basis points

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 113.0 -11.0%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 212.3 +5.3%
• Israel Sovereign CDS 118.8 -1.8%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 23.0 -1.6%

• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -25.0 basis points -3.0 basis points

• 3M T-Bill Treasury Repo Spread -8.75 basis points -5.25 basis points

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -3.5 +.75 basis point
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 158.0 +3.0 basis points
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 639.0 -1.0 basis points
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 66.0 +1.0 basis point

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.7 +.3% 
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.37% -12.0 basis points
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.30% -1.0 basis point
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 97.9 USD/Metric Tonne -.23%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 34.5 euros/megawatt-hour +3.1%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -18.3 -.5 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 8.7 -1.5 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 9.2 +5.7 points
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(30 of 500 reporting) +7.4% n/a
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 277.34 n/a:  Growth Rate +12.9% n/a, P/E 19.4 n/a
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.49% -1.0 basis point
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 418.21 n/a: Growth Rate +20.9% n/a, P/E 27.5 n/a
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.81 +8.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .42 -24.0 basis points
• US Yield Curve 52.25 basis points (2s/10s) unch.
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 Forecast -2.4% unch.
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 38.0% +2.25 percentage points

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.54% unch.: CPI YoY +2.42% unch.
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.24 +3.0 basis points
• Highest target rate probability for June 18th FOMC meeting: 64.3% (-.1 percentage point) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. Highest target rate probability for July 30th meeting: 50.2%(+1.9 percentage points) chance of 3.75%-4.0%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +560 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -21 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +123 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my tech/industrial/consumer discretionary/utility sector longs
• Disclosed Trades: None
• Market Exposure: 75% net long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth +1.0%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Airlines -.2% 2) Healthcare Providers -.2% 3) Gambling +.3%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• BTU and FL

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) ALGM 2) ACI 3) MP 4) TMC 5) HU YA

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) APP 2) BBAI 3) ECG 4) BKKT 5) DVA

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) QTEC 2) IGV 3) KWEB 4) XLE 5) XLI

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Mid-Cap Value +1.3%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Computer Hardware +2.5% 2) Electric Vehicles +2.4% 3) Biotech +2.4%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• MTSR, MP, SUPV, BMA, BBAR, GGAL, BYRN, PAM, GPCR, TGS, LOMA, YPF, LENZ, JKS, VKTX, SMMT, ATAT, CERT, QFIN, BBWI, PPTA, EH, ZLAB, CEPU, ZLAB, QFIN, BEAM, FUTU, BABA, BNTX, PDD, SDGR, CRESY, HRTG, CBRL, ADMA, FIVE, JD, BUR, SBGI, YMM, HSAI, PLTR, MAG, PAAS, ONC, TAL, SAFE, XENE, TCOM, ARGX, KROS, DELL, KRUS, APTV, OCFC, ATHM, GM, OR, AAPL, ORLA, LOGI, SRRK, BX and ERO

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) TMC 2) MP 3) SBLK 4) KMX 5) TCOM

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) MP 2) VERV 3) GPCR 4) TMC 5) CERT

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) XLF 2) SMH 3) MSTY 4) XLV 5) MAGS

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume