Monday, April 21, 2025

Tuesday Watch

Around X:

  • @ElonMusk
  • @LauraLoomer
  • @MarioNawful
  • @zerohedge 
  • @kylenabecker
  • This is how propaganda works. Count the number of times the media calls an MS-13 gang member and foreign national a "Maryland man." (video)
  • @LiveSquawk
  • @Libsoftiktok
  • @KobeissiLetter
  • @WallStreetApes
  • @amuse
  • TREASON: Top Democrats sends chilling warning to countries cooperating with the US - once Democrats are in power they will punish nations who dare to work with the US while Trump is in power. Congress should censure Rep Raskin. (pic)
  • @Matt_Vanswol
  • @judgejeaninne
  • @JimFergusonUK 
  • FOLLOW THE MONEY: DOCTORS WERE PAID TO PUSH THE SHOT! A doctor just exposed the truth: “Blue Cross Blue Shield offered huge bonuses to vax doctors — if I’d jabbed all 6,000 of my COVID patients, I would’ve made $1.5 MILLION.” That’s not medicine. That’s a business model. THEY DIDN’T FOLLOW SCIENCE — THEY FOLLOWED THE PAYCHECK. WHAT THIS MEANS:
  • @WallStreetMav 
  • @ScottPresler
  • @GuntherEagleman
  • They rounded up pastors for showing up at church on Easter over a virus with a 99.8% survival rate. Never forget. (pic)
  • @catturd2
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -1.0% to unch. on average. 
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 105.75 +2.0 basis points. 
  • China Sovereign CDS 69.75 +.5 basis point.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 98.7 USD/Metric Tonne -.7%
  • Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 9.0 -.2%.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.94 -.08%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 50.0 +.7%.
  • US 10-Year Yield 4.40% -1.0 basis point.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 27.9 -2.1%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.70%. 
  • S&P 500 futures +.45%. 
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.46%.
Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by technology and consumer discretionary shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Falling Substantially into Final Hour on China's Trade War Escalation Moves, Increasing Fed Chairman Uncertainty, Rising Long-Term Rates, Tech/Healthcare Provider Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Lower
  • Sector Performance: Every Sector Declining
  • Volume: Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 35.0 +18.2%
  • S&P 500 Intraday % Swing 2.1 +52.4%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 53.2 -5.0% 
  • Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 9.03 +.95%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 181.77 -.01%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.2 -5.3%
  • CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 44.4 +10.6% 
  • ISE Sentiment Index 118.0 +5.0
  • Total Put/Call 1.05 +15.4%
  • NYSE Arms .88 +10.0%
  • NYSE Non-Block Money Flow -$648.0M 
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 74.67 +6.7%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 526.26 +5.6%
  • Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 296.0 unch.
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 77.5 +.07%
  • Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 184.2 +.3%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 118.0 basis points unch.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 103.4 -1.5%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 211.9 +1.8%
  • Israel Sovereign CDS 109.0 -.3%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 23.4 -.54%
  • 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -27.0 basis points -3.0 basis points
  • 3M T-Bill Treasury Repo Spread .25 basis point +.25 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -1.25 +1.5 basis points
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 163.0 +5.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 643.0 unch.
  • Avg. Auto ABS OAS 73.0 unch.
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.0 +.2% 
  • US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.40% +8.0 basis points
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.31% unch.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 98.9 USD/Metric Tonne -.5%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 35.7 euros/megawatt-hour unch.
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -20.2 +1.6 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -3.5 -4.1 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 14.4 +.6 point
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(59 of 500 reporting) +6.8% +.4 percentage point
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 276.21 -.16:  Growth Rate +12.4% -.1 percentage point, P/E 18.6 -.6
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.43% -3.0 basis points
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(1 of 10 reporting) +23.7% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 417.86 +.38: Growth Rate +20.8% +.1 percentage point, P/E 25.8 -.9
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.47 unch.
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .68 unch.
  • Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 12.7 -.9
  • US Yield Curve 65.75 basis points (2s/10s) +13.5 basis points
  • US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 Forecast -2.2% unch.
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 43.9% +2.0 percentage points
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.54% unch.: CPI YoY +2.38% unch.
  • 1-Year TIPS Spread 3.13 -8.0 basis points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.23 unch.
  • Highest target rate probability for June 18th FOMC meeting: 63.5% (+3.4 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. Highest target rate probability for July 30th meeting: 59.7%(+10.2 percentage points) chance of 3.75%-4.0%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -120 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -87 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +155 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Lower: On losses in my utility/consumer discretionary/industrial/tech sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to Market Neutral

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

  • Large-Cap Growth -3.1%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Healthcare Providers -4.7% 2) Oil Service -3.9% 3) Networking -3.7%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • MMM, SAP, MRX, GSL, MGNI, SSRM, SNA, ATGE, HXL, AXP, OPRA, CG, CAR, RUSHA, GPN, PAHC, LMB, SCVL, ESI, CMA, UNH, CRM, OWL, RXO, OLLI, BX, EHC, HUM, ALGM, HELE, TFIN, CAVA, MAGN, PTLO, SG, BBW, UHS, PSIX, BULL, ACHC, MP and SEZL
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) FND 2) EH 3) SPCE 4) XLI 5) SDS
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) SMTC 2) RDZN 3) RJKB 4) QUBT 5) TSLA
Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:
  • 1) SMH 2) XLE 3) XLF 4) KBE 5) XLV

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

  • Small-Cap Value -2.1%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Gold & Silver -.1% 2) Foods -.1% 3) Biotech -.1%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • BEAM, MTSR, ARWR, QURE, PRAX, ARQT, HSAI, GPCR, NRIX, TRML, DNTH, EXAS, IMCR, ANGI, FIS and DFS
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) MGA 2) SA 3) PRMW 4) XLI 5) UUP
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) UPXI 2) LXEO 3) CCBG 4) DFS 5) PCRX
Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:
  • 1) XLU 2) VGT 3) XOP 4) OIH 5) PPH
Charts:

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:
  • (MMM)/1.77
  • (DHR)/1.63
  • (ELV)/11.41
  • (EFX)/1.41
  • (GE)/1.27
  • (GPC)/1.68
  • (HAL)/.60
  • (HRI)/2.25
  • (KMB)/1.90
  • (LMT)/6.34
  • (MCO)/3.53
  • (NTRS)/1.85
  • (NOC)/6.24
  • (PHM)/2.43
  • (DGX)/2.15
  • (RTX)/1.35
  • (VMI)/4.36
  • (VZ)/1.16
After the Close: 
  • (BKR)/.47
  • (COF)/3.64
  • (CB)/3.19
  • (EQT)/1.04
  • (ISRG)/1.74
  • (MANH)/1.03
  • (PEGA)/.48
  • (SAP)/1.45
  • (STLD)/1.39
  • (TSLA)/.43
  • (TRMK)/.82
  • (WFRD)/.86
Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

  • Philly Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity for April.

10:00 am EST

  • Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index for April is estimated to fall to -6.0 versus -4.0 in March.

Upcoming Splits

  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Jefferson speaking, Fed's Harker speaking, Fed's Kugler speaking, Fed's Barkin speaking, Fed's Kashkari speaking, weekly US retail sales reports, (BAC) annual meeting, (DPZ) annual meeting, (TXT) annual meeting and the (TRMK) annual meeting could also impact global trading tomorrow.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • Volume Running -28.5% Below 100-Day Average 
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 14.6 +3.2
  • 11 Sectors Declining, 0 Sectors Rising
  • 11.7% of Issues Advancing, 87.1% Declining 
  • TRIN/Arms 1.0 +25.0%
  • Non-Block Money Flow -$558.6M
  • 24 New 52-Week Highs, 72 New Lows
  • 22.4% (-8.5%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 40.3 -4.8
Other:
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 48.5 -9.5%
  • Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 217.4 -1.0%
  • Russell 1000: Growth/Value 19,177.6 -1.0%
  • CNN Fear & Greed Index 18.0 (EXTREME FEAR) -1.0
  • 1-Day Vix 25.3 -19.4%
  • Vix 34.6 +16.8%
  • Total Put/Call 1.01 +11.0%