Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (ABBV)/2.38
• (AON)/6.01
• (AN)/4.42
• (CRI)/.53
• (CLS)/1.12
• (CNC)/2.52
• (CHTR)/8.44
• (CL)/.86
• (GNTX)/.42
• (HCA)/5.75
• (LAZ)/.31
• (LYB)/.42
• (PSX)/-.72
• (SAIA)/2.76
• (SLB)/.73
  

After the Close: 

• None of note

Economic Releases

10:00 am EST

• Final Univ. of Mich. Consumer Sentiment readings for April.
  

11:00 am EST

• The Kansas City Fed Services Activity Index for April.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Bloomberg US Economic Survey for April, (STLD) annual meeting, (SWK) annual meeting, (ABT) annual meeting, (LTH) annual meeting, (GGG) annual meeting and the (BMI) annual meeting could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -5.9% Below 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 15.8 +3.4
• 2 Sectors Declining, 9 Sectors Rising
• 77.6% of Issues Advancing, 20.8% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms 1.34 -5.3%
  
• Non-Block Money Flow +$149.9M
  
• 13 New 52-Week Highs, 8 New Lows
• 27.4% (+.2%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 51.6 +1.8

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 58.0 +1.9%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 226.2 +1.4%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 19,819.6 +1.2%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 30.0 (FEAR) +3.0
• 1-Day Vix 23.1 -24.1%
  
• Vix 27.4 -3.8%
  
• Total Put/Call .90 -1.1%

Thursday Watch

Around X:

• @ElonMusk

• The Department of Justice has started cutting millions of dollars in wasteful grants. Some of the greatest hits include: $2M for “national listening sessions of individuals with lived experience” $695k for “a parallel convergent mixed-methods case study research design to assess the efficacy of police departments’ LGBTQ liaison services” $250k for “working with incarcerated transgender individuals providing gender affirming care to including housing in gender appropriate facilities”
• Grok Vision is absolutely mind blowing. It can read a book and instantly translate it into several languages. This page is written in French, and Grok translated the first three lines into English, Spanish, and German as I requested.

• @ZeroHedge

• The One Stock Reaction Banks Will Watch Closely Tomorrow...
• *HAMMACK: VERY HIGH BAR FOR FED TO STEP INTO FINANCIAL MARKETS *HAMMACK: FED INTERVENTION ONLY WHEN MARKETS TRULY BREAKING DOWN. Like 2 months before the election when the S&P is at all time highs.
• NIH Director Gives Update On New Project To Find Causes Of Autism.
• Palestinian Authority's Abbas Calls Hamas 'Sons Of Dogs' & Demands Release Of Hostages In Fiery Speech.
• *TRUMP: POWELL MAKING MISTAKES BY NOT LOWERING INTEREST RATES *TRUMP: MIGHT CALL POWELL
• Trump To Exempt US Carmakers From Some Tariffs: Report.
• *TRUMP: TARIFF RATE FOR CHINA COULD COME OVER NEXT 2-3 WEEKS.
• A Recap Of Trump's First Three Months.
• Headline Roulette Returns To Wreak Havoc Across Markets.

• @MarioNawful

• NEURALINK HITS $8.5B VALUATION AS IT EYES $500M FUNDING ROUND. Neuralink is reportedly prepping a $500 million raise at an $8.5 billion pre-money valuation. Talks are still early, but the momentum is clear: Neuralink’s human trials are now live—and already making headlines. 
• TRUMP: ELON IS A WONDERFUL PERSON, I CAN’T SPEAK MORE HIGHLY. “I can’t speak more highly about any individual. He’s an incredible guy. He’s a brilliant guy. He is a wonderful person. I’ve seen him with his family, with a lot of his children—he’s got a lot of children. He treats them good. He loves his children. But he’s a brilliant guy, and he was a tremendous help both in the campaign and in what he’s done with DOGE.” 
• TRUMP ORDERS AI BOOT CAMP FOR AMERICAN KIDS AND TEACHERS. Trump just signed an executive order forcing schools to train students and teachers in artificial intelligence - creating a White House task force stacked with Cabinet members and crypto billionaire David Sacks. Trump during the Oval Office signing: "That's a big deal, because AI is where it seems to be at".
• TRUMP SIGNS EXECUTIVE ORDER TO REFORM UNIVERSITY ACCREDITATION. Trump’s new Executive Order directs the Department of Education to fix what he calls a “broken” accreditation system. Elite universities are admitting students who “can’t do basic math” — while top high school students are denied entry. The order demands a tougher, merit-based approach to admissions and instruction. “Real standards. Real accountability.”
  

• @BennyJohnson

• BREAKING: Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard has REFERRED Intel officials to the DOJ for prosecution for leaking classified information. (pic)

• @Liz_Churchill10

• Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth apologizes for the ‘Covid Vaccine Mandate’ stating the previous Administration committed UNLAWFUL Acts by imposing an ‘Experimental Vaccine’ on the Military. (video)

• @DC_Draino 

• I think this is the political plan of these judges:
• It’s quite simple - there are 3 things that the MAGA base wants: 1. Mass deportations 2. Deep State arrests 3. Passing the Trump agenda into law Do those 3 things, and we’ll expand our majorities in the midterms Don’t do those 3 things and we’ll lose the House and Trump will get impeached.

• @NationFirstAust

• THREAD: THE FALL OF SCHWAB. Why was Klaus Schwab, the godfather of globalism, pushed out of the World Economic Forum after 55 years in charge? His own staff blew the whistle. Here’s what they exposed—and why it shatters the Great Reset.

• @NiohBerg

• BREAKING: India has ordered every Pakistani national to leave the country within 48 hours.

• @C_Herridge

• BREAKING: Top US Neuroscientist & Military Advisor Confirms Reports Are ‘Credible’ That Directed Energy Weapon Attacks Have Happened on US Soil And Targeted US Personnel Abroad; Exclusive New Records Reveal Exposure to “Microwave Weapon” After Intel Officer Discovered Secret Op.

• @IndoPac_Info

• Japan’s railgun ready to zap Chinese hypersonic missiles. Japan deploys a ship-based railgun, marking a breakthrough in electromagnetic weaponry and saturation missile defense. Japan’s ship-mounted railgun offers a cost-effective and rapid response to potential missile saturation threats by utilizing electromagnetic energy to launch projectiles at hypersonic velocities.

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.75% on average. 
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 98.75 -.5 basis point. 
• China Sovereign CDS 64.75 -1.0 basis point.
• China Iron Ore Spot 99.9 USD/Metric Tonne -.34%
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.8 +.35%.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.9 +.04%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 57.0 +.2%.
• US 10-Year Yield 4.36% -2.0 basis points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 25.3 -.54%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.18%. 
• S&P 500 futures +.20%. 
• NASDAQ 100 futures +.22%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by industrial and financial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Higher into Final Hour on Global Trade Deal Hopes, Diminished Fed Chairman Uncertainty, Stable Long-Term Rates, Tech/Financial Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Rising

• Volume: Above Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 28.6 -6.4%
• S&P 500 Intraday % Swing 2.1 +9.9%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 56.8 +5.7% 
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.78 -1.6%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 182.3 +.44%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.1 -1.1%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 39.9 -3.7% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 94.0 -27.0

• Total Put/Call .88 +3.5%

• NYSE Arms 1.50 +92.3%
• NYSE Non-Block Money Flow +$43.3M 
  

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 68.5 -5.3%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 444.7 -4.8%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 277.0 unch.

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 73.5 -5.0%
  
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 174.1 -5.9%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 113.0 basis points -4.0 basis points

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 99.5 -5.0%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 200.6 -3.4%
• Israel Sovereign CDS 106.2 -3.3%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 23.74 +.57%

• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -24.0 basis points +2.0 basis points

• 3M T-Bill Treasury Repo Spread 2.0 basis point +.75 basis point

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -1.25 +.25 basis point
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 160.0 -1.0 basis point
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 644.0 -2.0 basis points
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 75.0 unch.

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.9 -.21% 
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.39% -1.0 basis point
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.31% +1.0 basis point

• China Iron Ore Spot 100.3 USD/Metric Tonne +.01%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 34.2 euros/megawatt-hour -.3%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -15.1 +5.1 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -13.3 -6.4 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 12.7 -1.2 points
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(109 of 500 reporting) +5.7% -.4 percentage point
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 275.76 -.21:  Growth Rate +12.2% -.1 percentage point, P/E 19.6 +.4
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.45% +4.0 basis points
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(1 of 10 reporting) +23.7% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 418.13 +.03: Growth Rate +20.9% unch., P/E 27.7 +1.0
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.53 +14.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .65 -57.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 12.0 -.7
• US Yield Curve 52.75 basis points (2s/10s) -5.25 basis points
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 Forecast -2.2% unch.
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 41.8% -.3 percentage point

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.54% unch.: CPI YoY +2.35% -3.0 basis points
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 3.18 -4.0 basis points
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.30 +3.0 basis points
• Highest target rate probability for June 18th FOMC meeting: 55.5% (-8.6 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. Highest target rate probability for July 30th meeting: 45.4%(+8.2 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +650 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +17 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +106 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my utility/consumer discretionary/industrial/tech sector longs
• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and then covered some
• Market Exposure: 75% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Value +1.1%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Gold & Silver -1.5% 2) Oil Service -.3% 3) Utilities -.3%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• TFPM, CHKP, LAD, GFI, AMT, PMT, CAPR, OTIS, HMY, WFRD, SRAD, AU, LII, SEDG, WSO, BULL and ENPH

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) MCHI 2) AZUL 3) DAN 4) VSCO 5) ENPH

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) NPWR 2) FLNC 3) IBTA 4) RC 5) TXRH

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) GDX 2) XLP 3) XLE 4) XLY 5) COPX

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Mid-Cap Growth +2.9%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Semis +5.2% 2) Computer Hardware +4.6% 3) Networking +4.1%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• PEGA, HCSG, PSIX, TEM, GRAL, XYF, SMMT, BCAX, VRT, DYN, BLFS, AAOI, APPN, HSAI, DUOL, APH, BNTX, MKSI, ALGT, MANH, FARO, AOSL, OKLO, PLTR, AFRM, KVYO, LOMA, EWBC, SAP, WAB, GTLS, HOOD, CRS, TSLA, RKLB, KC, PCOR, CASH, SHOP, EOLS, BPOP, UPST, WGS, PI, DAVA, BOOT, MDB, NOW, ZWS, MEOH, FRO, AMD, W, TYRA, RBRK, AS, BA, PRCT, FIVN, GEHC, AR, LMB, STM, XPO, VSH, MAR, GLBE, COHU, MATX, RTX, OWL, HUT, YUMC, KKR, ICLR, MU, TME, CWH, ACHC, CVNA, SOFI, HUBS, ACHC, TXN, AMZN, BSX, PSMT, FBP, FUTU, VNO, AVBP, GEV, JHX, AXP, DFS, MT, NBBK, STX, TSM and COF

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) MCHI 2) MMM 3) TAL 4) PRMW 5) UUP

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) PEGA 2) SUMMT 3) TEM 4) APH 5) VRT

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) SMH 2) XLI 3) XLU 4) IGM 5) XOP

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume