Monday's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (BKU)/.75
• (DPZ)/4.04
  

After the Close: 

• (BYON)/-.63
• (BRO)/1.29
• (CDNS)/1.49
• (CR)/1.31
• (FFIV)/3.10
• (NE)/.43
• (NUE)/.71
• (NXPI)/2.60
• (SANM)/1.38
• (SBAC)/3.16
• (TER)/.62
• (RIG)/-.10
• (UHS)/4.35
  

Economic Releases

10:30 am EST

• The Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity Index for April is estimated to rise to -14.2 versus -16.3 in March.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Canadian snap election, American Assoc. for Cancer Research Meeting, (C) annual meeting, (VMI) annual meeting, (GPC) annual meeting and the (WFC) annual meeting could also impact global trading on Monday.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -6.3% Below 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 16.1 +.3
• 7 Sectors Declining, 4 Sectors Rising
• 35.8% of Issues Advancing, 62.1% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms 1.29 -2.3%
  
• Non-Block Money Flow -$155.9M
  
• 18 New 52-Week Highs, 7 New Lows
• 28.8% (-3.8%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 50.8 -.8

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 60.0 +3.0%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 229.1 +.54%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 20,086.9 +1.1%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 34.0 (FEAR) +4.0
• 1-Day Vix 21.1 -17.7%
  
• Vix 26.7 +.8%
  
• Total Put/Call .73 -27.7%

Friday Watch

Around X:

• @ElonMusk

• ActBlue has been caught funneling money from foreign countries, blatantly exploiting our campaign finance laws. This is not only unethical—it’s ILLEGAL. With his new memorandum, President Trump is building on the House’s efforts to hold ActBlue accountable by cracking down on foreign contributions. Thank you
  @POTUS for standing up for election integrity, putting America FIRST, and fighting back against fraudulent schemes from groups like ActBlue.
• Act Blue is guilty of widespread criminal identity theft.
• Judicial coup continues.
• CLOSED BORDER: President Nicolás Maduro coordinated the release of his nation's most dangerous prison gang - TdA in an effort invade the United States and undermine our way of life. Democrats allowed the invasion and now federal judges are trying to protect it.

• @ZeroHedge

• HF sentiment toward tech is about the worst it's ever been. (graph)
• Alphabet Surges After Easily Beating Estimates, New $70 Billion Stock Buyback.
  
• GOOGL Q1 capex $17.2BN, beat est $17.1BN. (graph) 
• 19-Year-Old Arrested For Sparking Massive New Jersey Wildfire.
• Stocks & Bonds Extend Gains As Fed Feud Fades, 'Executive Put' Strengthens.
  

• @MarioNawful

• AMAZON AND NVIDIA ARE BUILDING DATA CENTER CITY-STATES. Recession? What recession? These tech giants are out here leveling up like it's the AI Olympics. Amazon says demand for data centers is so high, they're basically printing concrete and GPUs nonstop. Nvidia’s laughing at Wall Street panic, saying AI needs way more power—like 50-nuclear-reactors more. So while your school Wi-Fi can't load a video, these guys are wiring up enough servers to teach robots how to write essays for you.
• $27B FOR GOLDEN DOME: TRUMP’S MISSILE SHIELD JUST GOT A MASSIVE BOOST. Congressional Republicans just stuffed a $150 billion defense bombshell into Trump’s tax bill—$27 billion of it aimed straight at his Golden Dome missile shield. The plan packs new THAAD batteries, 14 warships, and a $5 billion leap in autonomous weapons, all while SpaceX gears up to track incoming threats. GOP leaders say it’s a preemptive flex for China: peace through overwhelming firepower. 
• SEC. BESSENT: SOUTH KOREA TALKS MOVING “FASTER THAN I THOUGHT”. "We had a very successful bilateral meeting with the Republic of South Korea today. We may be moving faster than I thought — and we will be talking technical terms as early as next week." (video)
• VANCE MAKES SURPRISE GERMANY STOP—SERVES BEERS TO U.S. TROOPS. VP Vance turned a refueling layover into a full-blown morale boost at Ramstein Air Base. On his way back from India, @JDVance and his family popped into a hangar, greeted U.S. troops, handed out cold beers, and posed for photos. The visit wasn’t on the schedule—but the message was clear: boots on the ground come first. No speeches, no press—just a surprise toast and a handshake. (video) 
• LAVROV: U.S. AND RUSSIA ‘MOVING IN THE RIGHT DIRECTION’ TOWARD UKRAINE DEAL.Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov said talks with the U.S. over Ukraine are progressing, though key parts of a deal still need refining. In a recent interview, he referenced Trump’s earlier comments and confirmed Moscow is ready to make a deal—just not yet. Sergey Lavrov, foreign minister: "We continue our contacts with the American side on the situation in Ukraine, there are several signs that we are moving in the right direction.”
• JESSE WATERS: ELON EXPOSED HOW DEMOCRATS REALLY OPERATE. "The contribution that Elon made is not how much he saved the taxpayers. It's exposing how much Democrats stole from the taxpayers. It's so easy.” (video

• @LauraLoomer

• There is a coordinated take down of Hegseth happening right now. Interesting timing as Jeffrey Goldberg is invited to the Oval Office to meet with and interview President Trump. Why isn’t anyone this heated over @MikeWaltz47, and how come we don’t see Waltz coming out hard defending Hegseth? Koch Coup is moving along as the Koch aligned factions in DC work to replace Hegseth with someone they can control as Defense Secretary. (video)

• @WallStreetApes

• WOW! Take the time to listen to this. “Turns out the GMO seeds — The biggest concern is that some of these crops already have a pesticide in them. There's a certain crop called BT-Corn and it has a BT Gene. When the insects eat this corn, it makes their stomachs explode. What I think is really interesting about this is that what it's doing is it's creating holes in the stomach lining of the bugs. (video)

• @NationFirstAust

• THREAD: THE FALL OF SCHWAB. Why was Klaus Schwab, the godfather of globalism, pushed out of the World Economic Forum after 55 years in charge? His own staff blew the whistle. Here’s what they exposed—and why it shatters the Great Reset.

• @nicksortor

• #BREAKING: A DC judge has BLOCKED an order by President Trump requiring proof of citizenship to vote Because of course they did. It’s ALL part of the Democrat plan to continue to allow illegals they imported to vote. I REALLY hope we can rely on the Supreme Court to actually put an end to this sht.

• @jasongoepfert

• Forget the Zweig breadth thrust - the NYSE just triggered a SuperZweig. Both extremes were significantly further than the thresholds of the original signal. The S&P 500 returned more than +20% the year following every prior thrust. Talk about a bear killer. (graph)

• @JimFergusonUK 

• BREAKING: THE UK IS ABOUT TO TRY AND “DIM THE SUN”. Yes, you read that right. In the next few days, Britain will begin geoengineering experiments to block sunlight from reaching the earth — in a scheme straight out of a dystopian sci-fi novel. (video)

• @ImMeme0 

• BREAKING: U.S. Tariff Revenues Hit Record $15 Billion in April, Surging Over 60%. (graph)
• BREAKING: The FBI has arrested New Mexico Judge Juan Cano and his wife after they were found harboring a member of the Tren de Aragua gang in their home. (video)

• @IndoPac_Info

• 5,000 Chinese spies in Taiwan. Government offices are primary targets for Chinese spies, who aim to access industrial secrets and information about policies, an official said. Taiwan’s national security authorities estimate that about 5,000 individuals are collecting state secrets in Taiwan on behalf of the Chinese government, and the nation’s civilian administration is no less vulnerable or compromised than its military, said the official, who spoke on condition of anonymity.

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are +.75% to +1.75% on average. 
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 97.5 -1.25 basis points. 
• China Sovereign CDS 63.25 -1.5 basis points.
• China Iron Ore Spot 99.2 USD/Metric Tonne -.3%
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.78 -.42%.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.9 -.1%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 58.4 +1.1%.
• US 10-Year Yield 4.33% +1.0 basis point.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 24.2 -1.5%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.61%. 
• S&P 500 futures +.55%. 
• NASDAQ 100 futures +.70%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are higher, boosted by industrial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to maintain gains into the afternoon.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Surging into Afternoon on US/Global Trade Deal Hopes, Lower Long-Term Rates, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Tech/Alt Energy Sector Strength

  Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Rising

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 22.7 -2.5%
• S&P 500 Intraday % Swing 1.6 -25.2%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 57.6 +1.2% 
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.80 +.39%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 182.2 +.02%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.99 -.99%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 38.4 -2.4% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 128.0 +32.0

• Total Put/Call .94 +3.3%

• NYSE Arms 1.41 +.71%
• NYSE Non-Block Money Flow +$226.6M 
  

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 66.9 -2.1%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 445.0 -.7%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 257.0 -20.0

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 71.9 -2.2%
  
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 171.6 -1.4%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 110.0 basis points -3.0 basis points

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 100.2 +.8%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 195.7 -2.5%
• Israel Sovereign CDS 104.4 -1.7%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 23.79 +.5%

• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -24.5 basis points -.5 basis point

• 3M T-Bill Treasury Repo Spread 3.0 basis point +1.0 basis point

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -1.5 -.25 basis point
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 157.0 -3.0 basis points
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 644.0 unch.
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 74.0 -1.0 basis point

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.9 +.17% 
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.31% -7.0 basis point
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.30% -1.0 basis point

• China Iron Ore Spot 98.9 USD/Metric Tonne -.6%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 33.6 euros/megawatt-hour -1.7%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -.4 +14.7 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -7.4 +5.9 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 12.1 -.6 point
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(156 of 500 reporting) +13.1% +7.4 percentage points
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 275.26 -.50:  Growth Rate +12.0% -.2 percentage point, P/E 19.5 -.1
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.42% -3.0 basis points
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(2 of 10 reporting) +22.8% -.9 percentage point
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 417.81 -.32: Growth Rate +20.8% -.1 percentage point, P/E 28.7 +1.0
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.36 +17.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index .92 +27.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 10.9 -1.1
• US Yield Curve 50.75 basis points (2s/10s) -2.0 basis points
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 Forecast -2.5% -30.0 basis points
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 40.6% -1.2 percentage points

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.54% unch.: CPI YoY +2.35% unch.
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 3.22 +4.0 basis points
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.31 +1.0 basis point
• Highest target rate probability for June 18th FOMC meeting: 57.6% (+2.1 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. Highest target rate probability for July 30th meeting: 45.3%(+5.4 percentage points) chance of 3.75%-4.0%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +550 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +69 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +214 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my utility/consumer discretionary/industrial/tech sector longs
• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
• Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Value +1.2%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Computer Services -4.5% 2) Foods -.8% 3) Airlines -.6%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• TYL, TSCO, PG, PEP, SRAD, WTW, RHI, CMCSA, PRCT, WNS, IBM, POOL, CCS, BULL, JACK, EGBN, ALK, LKQ, GSHD, HELE, CHDN, ASGN, MTSR and FI

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) VIST 2) NOW 3) LYV 4) IBM 5) OWL

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) IBM 2) JACK 3) ZBIO 4) ACNB 5) RC

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) XLE 2) GDX 3) KWEB 4) PAVE 5) XLI

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Mid-Cap Growth +2.8%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Semis +5.5% 2) Alt Energy +3.6% 3) Computer Hardware +4.0%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• CEP, PI, FARO, HAS, NOW, HZO, PSIX, MCHP, MP, RMD, CACI, ALLE, URI, TECX, TREE, COHU, FTI, HCSG, ON, FCFS, TEAM, LFUS, ADI, IONQ, LFUS, HOOD, VRT, RKLB, EW, TXN, KYMR, FCX, MDB, SEIC, MRVL, IRDM, APH, PEN, LVS, TRU, BHVN, EDU, LRCX, STX, STM, ESTC, TEL, ESTC, TECK, LOB, MU, FAF, ZS, LAD, COF, DFS, SOFI, TTWO, CR, GRPN, EYE, RYTM, NFLX, NEM, CALX, MBLY, IPG, LOMA, KEYS, VAC, NMRK, TTAN, CNH, CRS, LII, GLPG, JHX, MRX, SMMT, PPBI, CBRE, SYRE, CBRE, MRUS, EGP, MASI, OII, DOW, SCVL and NSIT

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) OMEX 2) INSM 3) AZUL 4) NOW 5) AI

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) NOW 2) TMC 3) HWNI 4) HAS 5) PI

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) KRE 2) XLP 3) XLY 4) XLF 5) XRT

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume