Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (AES)/.35
• (AXL)/.04
• (CBOE)/2.36
• (CVX)/2.16
• (DD)/.95
• (ETN)/2.71
• (XOM)/1.75
• (FLR)/.50
• (MGA)/.85
• (PIPR)/2.65
• (TROW)/2.13
• (TEX)/.53
• (CI)/6.35
• (WEN)/.20
• (GT)/-.03
  

After the Close: 

• None of note

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• The Change in Non-Farm Payrolls for April is estimated at +137K versus +228K in March.
• The Unemployment Rate for April is estimated at 4.2% versus 4.2% in March.
• Average Hourly Earnings MoM for April is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.3% gain in March.
  

10:00 am EST

• Factory Orders for March is estimated to rise +4.5% versus a +.6% gain in Feb.
• Factory Orders Ex Transports for March is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.4% gain in Feb.
• Final Durable Goods Orders readings for March.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The CFTC weekly speculative net positioning reports, US Baker Hughes weekly oil rig count, (LDOS) annual meeting, (ETR) annual meeting, (ZION) annual meeting, (LSCC) annual meeting, (MAN) annual meeting, (R) annual meeting and the (ITW) annual meeting could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Value +.4%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Gold & Silver -3.8% 2) Pharma -3.4% 3) Telecom -1.2%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• MGM, RYN, ATRC, GL, SCI, SAIA, HUBB, ICLR, EZPW, FTV, BR, PCVX, WCC, BLDR, RSI, SKT, ALHC, AIT, VTR, CHD, BE, CMPR, HCC, UTZ, QCOM, OCSL, THRY, CDNA, LLY, AGI, FTAI, PPC, GKOS, BDX, GPK and CFLT

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) IWD 2) OGN 3) MPW 4) FTAI 5) CART

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) LLY 2) SAIA 3) QCOM 4) GERN 5) SANA

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) XLF 2) XLI 3) XLP 4) ARKK 5) XLU

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth +2.0%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Software +5.2% 2) Networking +4.5% 3) Construction +2.8%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• CEP, TNDM, MYRG, UPBD, AEIS, AAOI, NTGR, TTMI, OLED, CNMD, GTLS, CRWV, FTDR, ATI, CARR, PWR, ZYBT, AGCO, EVER, OSIS, BPMC, IDXX, OKLO, COHR, HGV, MSFT, VRT, CWH, ANET, HWM, BTDR, CEG, CNH, VAL, CIEN, CLS, APG, MTZ, HIMS, FORM, MARA, PRIM, VST, MOD, DRS, QNST, CVS, H, ALKS, LRN, WAY, HAYW, META, PATK, CRS, KIM, SEI, AXGN, ZETA, AAON, SUI, EXTR, DE, APAM, CTSH, SION, HURN, ORCL, MGPI, FLEX, SON, SMG, ARM, CEPO, SION, TREE, CSTM, SMLR, ACT, KNSA, HLT, PTC, RDDT, HST, ETN, CAH, RDDT, ULS, MTX, JBGS, DUOL, CUK, NVT, AX and AVT

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) NXE 2) BMBL 3) MTCH 4) HST 5) FNGR

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) TTMI 2) MSFT 3) MAX 4) ATI 5) GTX

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) FDN 2) XLV 3) IGV 4) KRE 5) XLK

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +6.3% Above 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 14.2 -2.3
• 3 Sectors Declining, 8 Sectors Rising
• 54.0% of Issues Advancing, 44.4% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms 1.09 -9.9%
  
• Non-Block Money Flow -$160.5M
  
• 24 New 52-Week Highs, 15 New Lows
• 32.1% (+3.4%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 54.9 +2.6

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 58.3 +.2%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 228.9 +.6%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 20,466.0 +1.7%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 48.0 (Neutral) +16.0
• 1-Day Vix 22.2 -3.0%
  
• Vix 24.7 +.1%
  
• Total Put/Call .82 unch.

Thursday Watch

Around X:

• @ElonMusk

• Next came the moment no one expected—but everyone would be talking about. Elon Musk stepped in and everything went quiet. “I think this could be the greatest administration since the founding of the country.” It wasn’t a soundbite. It was a moment. At the 100-day milestone, Musk addressed the full cabinet. He didn’t waste words. He spoke with intent. “The American people voted for secure borders, safe cities, and sensible spending,” he said. “And that’s what they’ve gotten.” He praised the pace, the action, and the execution. “A tremendous amount has been accomplished in the first 100 days. As everyone has said, it's more than has been accomplished in ANY administration before. Ever. Period.” And then he looked ahead. “So this portends well for what happens for the rest of the administration.” This will be the quote that should dominate headlines: “I think this could be the greatest administration since the founding of the country.” (video)
• EYE-WATERING MOMENT: Trump’s cabinet erupts in applause for Elon Musk—thanking him for the personal sacrifices he’s made to help save the country. It wasn’t scripted. It wasn’t expected. But it was real—and it said everything that needed to be said. @elonmusk sat quietly at the table. (video)

• @ZeroHedge

• EPA Chief Lee Zeldin Touts 100 'Environmental Actions' Taken To 'Power The American Comeback'. 
• California Child Sex Trafficking Bill Advances After Language Removed To Make Purchase Of 16 & 17-Year-Olds A Felony.
• FBI Agents Who Bent The Knee To BLM In "Iconic Photo" Have Been Demoted.
• Ukraine Signs Final Trump-Brokered Minerals Deal, Giving US Preferential Access To Resources.
• Pakistan Warns It Has 'Credible Intelligence' India Will Attack Within 36 Hours.
• Elon Musk Not Working From White House Anymore, Chief Of Staff Confirms.
• 'Much Ado About Nothing': Nasdaq Ends April Higher Despite 'End Of US Exceptionalism'.

• @MarioNawful

• LINDA YACCARINO: 𝕏 COMMUNITY NOTES IS A MEGAPHONE FOR TRUTH—LEGACY MEDIA IS JUST A WHISPER. "Community Notes is global collective intelligence—fact-checking in real time at scale. We now have 1 million noters across 200 countries. If you interact with a post that gets noted, you're 60% less likely to share it. Authors are 80% more likely to delete it. Legacy media fact-checks with a whisper—X does it with a megaphone." (video)
• TESLA OPTIMUS EYED FOR $5 TRILLION ROBOT TAKEOVER. Morgan Stanley sees a $5 trillion humanoid robot market by 2050—and Tesla’s Optimus is in prime position. With up to 1 billion robots projected by mid-century, analysts say companies controlling the brains and branding will win big. Elon expects to build 10,000 to 12,000 Optimus units this year, calling it “a legion of robots.” Even 5,000, he says, is “the size of a Roman legion. Tesla isn’t just building machines—it’s building history. 
• LINDA YACCARINO: 𝕏 IS NOW THE WORLD’S MOST POWERFUL CULTURE SIGNAL—EVERY VOICE IS WELCOME. "In my old gig at NBCUniversal, I saw the power of Twitter. Now, 𝕏 is the world’s most powerful culture signal—the global town square where ideas collide, truth rises, and every voice is welcome. Biden dropped out on 𝕏, Brady retired on 𝕏, Beyoncé announced her tour on X. If it’s happening, it’s happening on 𝕏." (video)
• GOOGLE’S TRAINING ELECTRICIANS SO AI DOESN’T MELT THE POWER GRID. AI is eating so much electricity that Google’s now throwing $10 million at training 100,000 new electricians — because robots need juice, and the grid is already crying. Turns out, when your data centers slurp power like it’s Mountain Dew, you need more than just tech bros in hoodies — you need actual humans who know what wires do. Google’s also trying nuclear, geothermal, and a bunch of nerdy policy hacks to stop the lights from going out mid-prompt. Reminder: your favorite AI doesn’t run on magic — it runs on outlets.
• TESLA STACKS HUNDREDS OF CYBERCAB CASTINGS—ROBOTAXI TAKEOVER IN SIGHT. Tesla looks ready to shift its Robotaxi fleet from Model Y to Cybercab, with drone footage showing hundreds of castings piled up at Giga Texas. Though the Austin pilot will start with Model Ys, the Cybercab—Tesla’s two-seater autonomous vehicle—is clearly being prepped for scale. Tesla’s VP of Engineering confirmed builds are underway, sealing, crash-testing, and prepping full integration. While not in the June rollout, Cybercab is looming. 
• APPLE BREAKS COURT ORDER—NOW IT’S GETTING REFERRED TO THE FEDS. Apple tried to play lawyer with a federal judge—and lost. A U.S. court ruled the tech giant violated an order to loosen its grip on the App Store, and now Judge Yvonne Gonzalez Rogers is kicking the case to federal prosecutors for criminal contempt. She didn’t mince words: “This is an injunction, not a negotiation.” Apple’s workaround? Slap on a new 27% fee and scare users off non-Apple payments. The judge called it out. Epic sued. Apple stonewalled. Now the feds may knock. 

• @TheTranscript

• $MSFT CFO: "We delivered a strong quarter with Microsoft Cloud revenue of $42.4 billion, up 20% (up 22% in constant currency) year-over-year driven by continued demand for our differentiated offerings". (graph)
• $MSFT Microsoft Q3 FY25 revenue growth by product line [Constant Currency YoY] —Microsoft Cloud: +22% —Azure & other cloud services: +35% —Server products & cloud services: +24% —Microsoft 365 Commercial: +15% —Microsoft 365 Consumer: +12% —Dynamics 365: +18% —LinkedIn: +8% —Xbox content & services: +9% —Search & news ads (ex-TAC): +23% —Windows OEM & Devices: +3%. (table)
  
• $META CFO hikes their capex guidance for FY 25: "We anticipate our full year 2025 capital expenditures, including principal payments on finance leases, will be in the range of $64-72 billion, increased from our prior outlook of $60-65 billion". (graph)
• Meta CEO: "We continue to make good progress on AI, glasses, and the future of social media. I'm excited to see these efforts scale further in 2025." (table)

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.75% on average. 
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 97.0 +2.25 basis points. 
• China Sovereign CDS 61.5 +2.5 basis points.
• China Iron Ore Spot 96.7 USD/Metric Tonne -.73%
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.80 -.01%.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.0 -.04%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 57.6 -1.0%.
• US 10-Year Yield 4.19% +2.0 basis points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 23.4 -2.5%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures n/a. 
• S&P 500 futures +1.0%. 
• NASDAQ 100 futures +1.5%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open higher and to maintain gains into the afternoon.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Lower into Final Hour on US Economic Data, Earnings Outlook Jitters, Technical Selling, Energy/Alt Energy Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 25.2 +4.4%
• S&P 500 Intraday % Swing 1.58 +31.2%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 56.6 -4.9% 
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.83 +.03%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 182.1 +.10%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.6 unch.

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 35.6 +5.8% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 101.0 -22.0

• Total Put/Call .83 -4.6%

• NYSE Arms 1.24 -15.1%
• NYSE Non-Block Money Flow -$143.6M 
  

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 68.1 +1.7%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 491.9 +5.5%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 279.0 +4.0

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 73.2 +2.9%
  
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 165.2 +3.3%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 113.0 basis points +2.0 basis points

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 97.1 +2.8%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 198.4 +1.9%
• Israel Sovereign CDS 105.9 +3.4%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 23.6 -.34%

• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -24.0 basis points unch.

• 3M T-Bill Treasury Repo Spread -6.0 basis point +.5 basis point

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -1.5 +.25 basis point
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 160.0 +2.0 basis points
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 642.0 +3.0 basis points
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 77.0 unch.

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.97 -.07% 
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.18% +1.0 basis point
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.29% +1.0 basis point

• China Iron Ore Spot 96.6 USD/Metric Tonne -.83%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 32.3 euros/megawatt-hour +1.1%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -8.6 -2.4 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -15.7 +3.6 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 18.8 +5.3 points
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(254 of 500 reporting) +13.6% -1.5 percentage points
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 275.57 -.10:  Growth Rate +12.1% -.1 percentage point, P/E 20.0 -.1
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.40% -1.0 basis point
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(3 of 10 reporting) +43.2% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 421.62 +.23: Growth Rate +21.9% unch., P/E 29.0 -.2
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.19 +5.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.02 +4.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 10.8 +.1
• US Yield Curve 55.75 basis points (2s/10s) +4.25 basis points
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast -2.4% +30.0 basis points
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 47.5% +1.7 percentage points

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.61% +7.0 basis points: CPI YoY +2.34% -1.0 basis point
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 3.13 -8.0 basis points
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.24 +1.0 basis point
• Highest target rate probability for June 18th FOMC meeting: 63.7% (+3.9 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. Highest target rate probability for July 30th meeting: 59.4%(+6.6 percentage points) chance of 3.75%-4.0%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +105 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -28 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +230 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Lower: On losses in my utility/tech/consumer discretionary sector longs
• Disclosed Trades: None
  
• Market Exposure: 75% Net Long