Thursday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.5% to +.5% on average. 
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 92.75 -.5 basis point. 
• China Sovereign CDS 58.5 -1.25 basis points.
• China Iron Ore Spot 97.9 USD/Metric Tonne -.43%
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.77 -.03%.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.0 -.01%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 59.4 -.9%.
• US 10-Year Yield 4.27% unch.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 23.0 +.2%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.38%. 
• S&P 500 futures unch. 
• NASDAQ 100 futures +.07%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by consumer discretionary and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Reversing Slightly Higher into Final Hour on US Global Trade Deal Hopes, Lower Long-Term Rates, FOMC Commentary, Alt Energy/Homebuilding Sector Strength

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.0 -.11% 
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.28% -1.0 basis point
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.32% +2.0 basis points

• China Iron Ore Spot 97.9 USD/Metric Tonne -.5%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 34.5 euros/megawatt-hour -.6%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -6.9 +.9 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 6.8 +3.4 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 20.8 +1.8 points
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(419 of 500 reporting) +12.3% +.6 percentage point
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 275.92 -.10:  Growth Rate +11.9% unch., P/E 20.4 -.1
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.33% -2.0 basis points
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(7 of 10 reporting) +29.1% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 424.05 +.25: Growth Rate +22.6% unch., P/E 29.7 -.3
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index -.13 -9.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.08 unch.
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 10.0 -.6
• US Yield Curve 47.75 basis points (2s/10s) -4.25 basis points
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +2.2% unch.
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 42.3% +.5 percentage point

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.61% unch.: CPI YoY +2.34% unch.
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 3.08 +2.0 basis points
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.27 -2.0 basis points
• Highest target rate probability for June 18th FOMC meeting: 75.3% (+6.5 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for July 30th meeting: 54.9%(-1.8 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +160 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -79 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +148 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my tech/consumer discretionary/industrial/utility sector longs and emerging market shorts
• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges, then covered some
• Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Value +.4%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Education +1.8% 2) Homebuilding +1.5% 3) Construction +1.1%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• PRCH, ANGI, OSCR, BBNX, NRDS, LIVN, ELAN, HRTG, TPB, CDRE, ATRO, CRL, HALO, SHOO, CPNG, EYE, ROK, ZK, CEP, PTCT, TRIP, DIS, PARR, REZI, TEM, PTLO, OPFI, VOYA, TEVA, GEN, NBIS, RXST, FVRR, BL, FLYW, CTRI, BAND, ET, ARDT, BULL, LOPE, CDW, XPEL, PHH, CRC, HLIO, NTGR, ES, PRGO, ACLS, TRMB, COR, IPGP, SIBN, ULS, BSY, IQV, HOLX, VRSK, KGC, SSRM, KVYO, TIC, AORT, BTSG, WWW, VRNS, ZTS, URGN, CRMD and MOS

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) EOSE 2) OSCR 3) BULL 4) SRPT 5) KVUE

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) PRCH 2) CURI 3) ELAN 4) OSCR 5) OPEN

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) SOXX 2) MSTY 3) XLE 4) XLY 5) XOP

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (AMG)/5.10
• (CG)/.95
• (CARS)/.49
• (LNG)/2.75
• (CHH)/1.37
• (COP)/2.05
• (CROX)/2.48
• (DNUT)/-.05
• (LTH)/.26
• (MTCH)/.38
• (TAP)/.78
• (PZZA)/.36
• (PENN)/-.22
• (PLNT)/.62
• (SN)/.73
• (SHOP)/.26
• (TPR)/.88
• (VITL)/.26
• (WRBY)/.11
• (WWW)/.11
• (YETI)/.27
  

After the Close: 

• (AFRM)/-.01
• (AKAM)/1.57
• (BILL)/.37
• (NET)/.16
• (COIN)/1.87
• (DKNG)/-.08
• (DBX)/.62
• (EXPE)/.35
• (HUBS)/1.77
• (ILMN)/.94
• (PODD)/.79
• (LYFT)/.19
• (MCK)/9.83
• (MCHP)/.10
• (MNST)/.46
• (NWSA)/.14
• (ONTO)/1.47
• (PINS)/.26
• (POST)/1.20
• (RNG)/.96 
• (RKLB)/-.11
• (TXRH)/1.76
• (TTD)/.25
• (TKO)/.58
• (TOST)/.18
• (YELP)/.33
• (ZIP)/-.16
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• 1Q Non-Farm Productivity is estimated to fall -.7% versus a +1.5% gain in 4Q.
• 1Q Unit Labor Costs is estimated to rise +5.1% versus a +2.2% gain in 4Q.
• Initial Jobless Claims for last week is estimated to fall to 230K versus 241K the prior week.
• Continuing Claims is estimated to fall to 1895K versus 1916K prior.
• Wholesale Trade Sales MoM for March is estimated to rise +.9% versus a +2.4% gain in Feb.
  

11:00 am EST

• NY Fed 1Y Inflation Expectations Index for April.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 update, 30Y T-Bond auction, Fed's weekly balance sheet report, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report, Oppenheimer Industrial Growth Conference, Needham Tech/Media/Consumer Conference, (FLUT) fireside chat with Barclays, Assoc. for Research in Vision/Ophthalmology Meeting, (CRH) annual meeting, (UPS) annual meeting, (UNP) annual meeting, (F) annual meeting, (NSC) annual meeting, (NUE) annual meeting, (URI) annual meeting, (ADM) annual meeting, (CME) annual meeting, (SYK) annual meeting, (COF) annual meeting, (AA) annual meeting, (CDNS) annual meeting, (CHRW) annual meeting, (ALK) annual meeting and the Truist Industrials/Services Conference could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -4.3% Below 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 15.0 +2.3
• 3 Sectors Declining, 8 Sectors Rising
• 60.3% of Issues Advancing, 37.2% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms 1.54 +52.0%
  
• Non-Block Money Flow +$139.5M
  
• 46 New 52-Week Highs, 31 New Lows
• 33.3% (+2.8%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 55.9 -.6

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 58.7 -1.1%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 227.7 +.21%
  
• Russell 1000: Growth/Value 20,148.1 -.71%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 56.0 (GREED) -2.0
• 1-Day Vix 20.5 -7.4%
  
• Vix 24.9 +.4%
  
• Total Put/Call .63 -30.0%

Wednesday Watch

Around X:

• @ElonMusk

• Anthony Fauci essentially restarted the bio-weapons arms race and did it under the pretention of developing vaccines — eventually moving his experiments offshore, mainly to the Wuhan Lab. @POTUS today moved to shut down this kind of research in this country and to stop funding it abroad. (video)
• How Norm Eisen’s 2025 Democracy Playbook Plans to takeover for the Midterms Without the Presidency. What happens if Democrats + globalist NGOs lose the White House? Nothing changes. Because they’ve spent years building a machine that runs WITHOUT needing the presidency. Here’s how they plan to rule through lawfare, NGOs, media + states + their plans for the 2026 midterms. (Yes I read the playbook)
• Finally, someone connects the dots. “In 2014, after 3 of Fauci’s bugs escaped, 300 scientists asked Obama to shut him down. Obama declared a moratorium—but Fauci moved the experiments offshore, mainly to the Wuhan lab. Now our own government—CIA, FBI, State, DOE—all say those experiments likely sparked the COVID pandemic. And it all started as bioweapons research in 1947. President Trump just moved to shut it down—for good.” — HHS Sec. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. (video)
  

• @ZeroHedge

• According to India’s NDTV, Operation Sindoor has only completed its first phase, with more strikes against targets in Pakistan likely. (video)
• Musk, Fink, Zuckerberg Set For Saudi Arabia's 'MAGA In The Desert' Conference To Attract U.S. Investment.
• *PBOC TO CUT RESERVE REQUIREMENT RATIO BY 0.5 PPT, PAN SAYS *PBOC TO CUT 7-DAY REVERSE REPO RATE TO 1.4% FROM 1.5%.
  
• India Confirms Strikes On Pakistan's "Terrorist Camps"; Pakistan Claims 5 Jets Shot-Down. 
• US, Chinese Delegations To Meet In Switzerland To Launch Trade Talks; S&P Futures Surge. (graph)
• Ex-Trump NSC Official Fears OpenAI 'Completely Penetrated' By Multiple Spy Agencies. 
• Moderna, Sarepta Puke After FDA Names Vinay Prasad As Vaccines, Biologics Head.
• Watch: Tren De Aragua-Affiliated Gangbangers Attack NYPD Officers.
  
• Thanks to @POTUS, the world has been coming to the US, and China has been the missing piece—we will meet on Saturday and Sunday to discuss our shared interests. The current tariffs and trade barriers are unsustainable, but we don’t want to decouple. What we want is fair trade. (video)
• OKLO spiking on report White House is planning executive action soon to try to speed nuclear reactors' deployment. (via Axios)
• *UK, US PACT WOULD LOWER UK STEEL AND CAR EXPORT TARIFFS: FT. *UK, US PACT SET TO BE SIGNED THIS WEEK: FT. *DISAGREEMENTS REMAIN OVER PHARMACEUTICALS FOR UK, US PACT: FT. 
• Bullion, Bonds, & Black Gold Bid, But Stocks Skid As Bessent Bats Down Beijing Deal Bets.
  

• @MarioNawful

• MICHAEL SHELLENBERGER: VIOLENT PROTESTS ARE NOW THE LEFT’S COMFORT ZONE—A SIGN OF CIVILIZATIONAL DECLINE. "Protests—often violent—are the new comfort zone for the left. They have no real agenda, so they retreat into rage. When elites sympathize more with foreigners than their own people, history shows it’s a warning sign. Toynbee called that a key marker of civilizational decline." (video)
• BREAKING: PROTESTS ERUPT IN PAKISTAN AS PM PROMISES "ROBUST RESPONSE" | INDIAN FLAGS BURNED AFTER MISSILE STRIKES. Anti-India protests have broken out in Pakistan's city of Hyderabad, with demonstrators defacing Indian flags and images of PM Modi as tensions reach boiling point between the nuclear-armed neighbors. Pakistan reports at least 8 people killed after India fired missiles into Pakistani-controlled territory early Wednesday, which India claims targeted "militant infrastructure." 
• TRUMP ADMIN GOES AFTER NY SCHOOL FOR “BOYS IN GIRLS’ SPORTS” POLICY. Saratoga Springs schools are under federal investigation for letting biological boys join girls’ sports teams and use girls’ locker rooms. Trump’s Education Secretary, Linda McMahon, says the school is breaking the law and “disrespecting women’s dignity.” In other words: they think it’s totally unfair. 

• @TheTranscript

• $AMD: "Data Center segment revenue in the quarter was $3.7B, up 57% YoY primarily driven by growth in AMD EPYC™ CPU and AMD Instinct™ GPU sales."
• AMD double beat CEO: "We delivered an outstanding start to 2025 as year-over-year growth accelerated for the fourth consecutive quarter driven by strength in our core businesses and expanding data center and AI momentum," $AMD: +5% AH.
• S&P 500 earnings took Liberation Day seriously: (graph)
  

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are +.25% to +1.25% on average. 
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 93.25 -1.25 basis points. 
• China Sovereign CDS 59.75 unch.
• China Iron Ore Spot 99.8 USD/Metric Tonne +2.4%
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.72 -.57%.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.0 -.04%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 59.2 -.1%.
• US 10-Year Yield 4.31% +2.0 basis points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 23.2 -1.4%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.31%. 
• S&P 500 futures +.92%. 
• NASDAQ 100 futures +1.07%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly higher, boosted by industrial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to maintain gains into the afternoon.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.