Thursday, May 15, 2025

Friday Watch

Around X:

  • @ZeroHedge
  • @MarioNawful
  • SPEAKER JOHNSON: COMEY IS EITHER THREATENING TRUMP OR SUGGESTING SOMEONE SHOULD. “President Trump has already survived TWO assassination attempts. Now, former disgraced FBI director James Comey is either threatening to kill Donald Trump or suggesting someone should. This is as outrageous as it is dangerous. Grateful Sec. Noem and FBI Director Kash are looking into this.” (video)
  • DNI TULSI GABBARD: COMEY SHOULD BE BEHIND BARS. “Any other person with his influence, his stature, and the way media built him up—people take what he says seriously. I’m very concerned for the president’s life. We’ve already seen assassination attempts. James Comey, in my view, should be held accountable and put behind bars for this.” (video)
  • TRUMP: WE WILL HAVE UNPRECEDENTED INVESTMENT IN THE U.S. WITH AI. “We're having numbers that we've never done before. That means AI plants — a really good example is Apple. Apple is now spending much more than $500B on plants." (video)
  • MIDDLE EAST MONEY STORMS INTO AMERICA — $1.1T ON THE TABLE. Qatar’s wealth fund just pledged $500 billion into the U.S. economy over the next decade. This comes days after Saudi Arabia dropped a $600B bombshell: future investments in U.S. energy, tech, and defense — plus Aramco shaking hands on 34 deals worth another $90B. Wall Street’s rolling out the red carpet.  
  • FOLLOW THE SILENCED — THE UNTOLD STORY OF THE COVID VACCINE. Their injuries were ignored. Their stories were buried. But not anymore. Follow the Silenced is the award-winning documentary from Mikki Willis, TFVC, and React19, uncovering what happened to the early participants in the Covid vaccine trials—and how they came together to demand answers, research, and recognition. Winner of Best Director and Best of Festival at the 2025 Santa Monica International Film Festival, this powerful film is finally premiering worldwide. (video)
  • TRUMP OFFICIALS: NO WORK, NO BENEFITS. Trump’s team breaks it down: If you're an able-bodied adult on Medicaid or food stamps, you’ll need to work, train, or volunteer 20 hours a week — or lose benefits. Health Sec. RFK Jr., Mehmet Oz, and others say it’s about “ending dependency” and saving tax dollars. Democrats are calling it cruelty in disguise. 41 million on SNAP — 71 million on Medicaid. The safety net’s not shrinking — it’s getting a work schedule. 
  • FDA TO YOUR SNACKS: YOU’RE ON THIN ICE. The FDA just said it’ll finally start reviewing what’s actually in our food — including preservatives and additives banned or flagged overseas. Top targets? BHT, BHA, and azodicarbonamide (the one in yoga mats and sandwich bread). Health Secretary RFK Jr. wants a diet overhaul, seed oil swaps, and a war on synthetic additives. No more “wait and see” — FDA says it’s going proactive. About time too.
  • @WallStreetApes
  • @HSajwanization
  • @KobeissiLetter
  • @JDunlap1974
  • @iAnonPatriot 
  • @unusual_whales
  • This is truly egregious. On May 13th, someone put $25 million in premium, 10,000x volume, in United Health, $UNH, $300 puts expiring 09/19/2025. Then news of DOJ investigating for fraud came out. $UNH dropped, and is down 50% in last month. This trader is up $80 million. Unusual. (graph)
  • BREAKING: This is unusual trading by a politican. Representative Greg Landsman sold up to $50,000 of United Health, $UNH, on 03/26/2025. Since, $UNH is down 53%, and it was disclosed that the DOJ was investigating $UNH for possible Medicare fraud. He sits on the House Subcommittee of Health. (pic)
  • @C_3C_3
  • @EricLDaugh
  • HOLY CRAP... Liberal Justice Kentaji Brown Jackson declares she wants nationwide injunctions because if not, the executive would no longer have to 'move quickly' to reclaim its Article 2 powers... https://x.com/i/status/1923038033776877741/video/1… She is basically saying here that she wants the lower courts to infringe on Article 2 as much as possible because it forces the executive to quickly try to re-claim its authority via the Supreme Court from an activist judge. This line of reasoning is utterly tyrannical and dangerous. It's how republics lose their republic status. (video)
  • @ExxAlerts
  • @catturd2
  • @VigilantFox
  • @cb_doge
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.25% on average. 
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 79.75 +.75 basis point. 
  • China Sovereign CDS 51.75 +.25 basis point.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 100.5 USD/Metric Tonne -.6%
  • Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.64 +.27%.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.98 -.03%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 70.0 -.3%.
  • US 10-Year Yield 4.42% -1.0 basis point.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 19.6 +.5%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.07%. 
  • S&P 500 futures -.12%. 
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.16%.
Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by commodity and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Reversing Modestly Higher into Final Hour on US-Global Trade Deals, Lower Long-Term Rates, Technical Buying, Utility/Pharma Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 18.2 -2.4%
  • S&P 500 Intraday % Swing .74 +36.2%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 70.1 -1.7% 
  • Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.61 +.59%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 182.9 -.73%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.38 +.48%
  • CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 20.0 -2.4% 
  • ISE Sentiment Index 162.0 -1.0
  • Total Put/Call .70 +1.5%
  • NYSE Arms 1.85 +131.2%
  • NYSE Non-Block Money Flow -$136.2M 
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 55.2 -.7%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 415.0 +3.3%
  • Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 233.0 -14.0
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 61.5 +.6%
  • Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 150.0 +2.6%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 100.0 basis points -1.0 basis point
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 80.37 +2.2%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 170.3 +.4%
  • Israel Sovereign CDS 99.7 +.9%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 23.9 +.02%
  • 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -21.25 basis points unch.
  • 3M T-Bill Treasury Repo Spread 8.5 basis point -2.0 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -1.75 -.25 basis point
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 152.0 unch.
  • Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 627.0 -4.0 basis points
  • Avg. Auto ABS OAS 65.0 -1.0 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.0 +.12% 
  • US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.46% -8.0 basis points
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.37% -2.0 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 100.4 USD/Metric Tonne -.8%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 35.3 euros/megawatt-hour +.7%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -10.5 -3.4 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 15.3 -.3 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 27.0 +.2 
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(459 of 500 reporting) +11.9% -.3 percentage point
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 276.41 +.07:  Growth Rate +12.1% unch., P/E 21.4 unch.
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.32% -1.0 basis point
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(7 of 10 reporting) +29.1% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 425.47 +.09: Growth Rate +23.0% unch., P/E 32.0 -.1
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .39 +2.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.18 -8.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 8.2 -.4
  • US Yield Curve 48.0 basis points (2s/10s) +.75 basis point
  • US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +2.5% +.2 percentage point
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 36.1% -1.4 percentage points
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.60% unch.: CPI YoY +2.38% unch.
  • 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.84 -1.0 basis point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.35 -3.0 basis points
  • Highest target rate probability for July 30th FOMC meeting: 61.4% (-3.7 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for Sept. 17th meeting: 50.8%(+1.7 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +25 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -8 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +105 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my consumer discretionary/technology/utility/financial/industrial sector longs and emerging market shorts
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

  • Mid-Cap Growth -.4%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Oil Service -2.2% 2) Airlines -1.4% 3) Gambling -1.2%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • APA, GLBE, DXC, HIMS, BULL, PEN, COIN, DAVA, OPFI, WMS, NTCL, JACK, NICE, RDDT, GAMB, UNH, DKS, FI, ELVN and BHVN
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) FL 2) APA 3) NFE 4) GPN 5) DKS
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) UNH 2) LAZR 3) FI 4) NFE 5) NPWR
Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:
  • 1) XOP 2) ARKK 3) XLC 4) SMH 5) XLU

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

  • Large-Cap Value +.7%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Pharma +2.2% 2) Computer Services +2.2% 3) Biotech +2.0%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • FL, IBTA, AEVA, NVEE, GRAL, BOOT, ETON, RDW, NTES, DLO, SEDG, NXT, SPIR, NPCE, UNFI, STE, EXEL, VSAT, BIRK, ALNY, SIMO, AKRO, CSCO, BCRX, ARGX, NAGE, ONON, XYF, SMR, IMCR, FERG, NGG, GSK, HNRG, LBTYA, TGS, HALO, LQDA and BJRI
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) GPN 2) TIGR 3) FL 4) MT 5) RRC
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) VRHI 2) IBTA 3) TOON 4) DLO 5) BOOT
Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:
  • 1) XLE 2) VGT 3) MSTY 4) PAVE 5) XLK
Charts:

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:
  • (BRC)/1.22
  • (FLO)/.37
  • (RBC)/2.71
After the Close: 
  • None of note
Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

  • Housing Starts for April is estimated to rise to 1363K versus 1324K in March.
  • Building Permits for April is estimated to fall to 1450K versus 1467K in March.
  • The Import Price Index MoM for April is estimated to fall -.3% versus a -.1% decline in March.
  • The Import Price Index ex Petrol MoM for April is estimated to rise +.1% versus unch. in March.
  • The Export Price Index MoM for April is estimated to fall -.4% versus unch. in March.
  • The NY Fed Services Business Activity Index for May.

10:00 am EST

  • Univ. of Mich. Consumer Sentiment for May is estimated to rise to 53.4 versus 52.2 in April.
  • Univ. of Mich. 1Y Inflation Expectations Index for May is estimated to rise +6.5% versus +6.5% in April.

4:00 pm EST

  • Net Long -Term TIC Flows for March.

Upcoming Splits

  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Daly speaking, Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 update, weekly US Baker Hughes oil rig count, weekly CFTC speculative net positioning reports, American Society of Gene/Cell Therapy Meeting, (ICE) annual meeting, (LSTR) annual meeting, (LEA) annual meeting, (FIX) annual meeting and the (ELAN) annual meeting could also impact global trading tomorrow.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • Volume Running +7.0% Above 100-Day Average 
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 19.8 -1.4
  • 2 Sectors Declining, 9 Sectors Rising
  • 64.4% of Issues Advancing, 34.4% Declining 
  • TRIN/Arms 1.78 +121.2%
  • Non-Block Money Flow -$139.7M
  • 47 New 52-Week Highs, 16 New Lows
  • 42.7% (+2.5%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 62.9 +.7
Other:
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 70.3 -1.4%
  • Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 243.5 -1.3%
  • Russell 1000: Growth/Value 21,229.8 -.5%
  • CNN Fear & Greed Index 70.0 (GREED) -1.0
  • 1-Day Vix 13.8 -9.3%
  • Vix 18.3 -1.9%
  • Total Put/Call .71 +2.9%