Thursday, May 22, 2025

Friday Watch

Around X:

  • @ElonMusk
  • The legacy media puppet parade. (video)
  • Elon Musk in the United States: • Tesla’s HQ and factories. • SpaceX’s facilities and launch sites. • Starlink’s operations. • SpaceX Starbase city. • The Boring Company’s tunnels. • Neuralink’s research centers. • xAI’s AI initiatives. • X Corp’s digital influence.
  • @ZeroHedge
  • @MarioNawful
  • JUDGE PLAYS "WHACK-A-MOLE" WITH TRUMP'S STUDENT VISA CRACKDOWN. A federal judge just blocked the Trump administration from deporting international students whose visas were revoked—comparing the government's efforts to a children's arcade game. Judge Jeffrey White granted a nationwide injunction protecting thousands of students, claiming officials "uniformly wreaked havoc" by revoking their immigration status. Judge White: "It is unclear how this game of whack-a-mole will end unless defendants are enjoined from skirting their own mandatory regulations." The ruling came hours after Harvard lost its ability to enroll international students. Now every student in the exchange visitor program gets a free pass while lawyers debate.
  • TESLA’S OPTIMUS BOT: COOKS, CLEANS, AND WILL CHANGE THE FUTURE FOR THE BETTER. Tesla’s humanoid robot, Optimus, isn’t just walking—it’s working. Designed to handle chores like cooking, vacuuming, and folding laundry, Optimus is Tesla’s leap into domestic automation. With sensors, neural networks, and a frame built for agility, it can navigate cluttered homes and messy kitchens while improving its skills over time. More than a sci-fi showpiece, it’s being trained to adapt to household routines. Think of it as a second set of hands—unfazed by spills or socks. It’s here, and it’s learning to make dinner.
  • SEC. KENNEDY: THE ENTIRE CABINET AGREES, CHRONIC DISEASE IS AN EXISTENTIAL THREAT. "It's the first time in American history that all of government—the entire cabinet, most of whom participated in drafting this report or commenting on it—all reached a consensus. And the consensus is that we're in the middle of a chronic disease epidemic that is existential for our country. We spend $4.5 trillion here on our healthcare.” 
  • LAWMAKERS BLAST ALLSTATE OVER DISASTER CLAIM DENIALS AS PROFITS SOAR. Natalia Migal’s hurricane-ravaged Georgia home became the face of a Senate showdown over how insurers treat everyday Americans. Allstate offered her $46K for nearly $500K in damages. CEO Tom Wilson made $26 million. Lawmakers aren’t buying the excuses. Adjusters say they were told to alter damage reports. Profits across the industry hit a record $169B in 2024, up 90%. Senator Hawley called it “institutionalized fraud.” The takeaway for homeowners: document everything, question denials, and don’t expect the safety net to catch you unless you fight.  
  • TRUMP ADMIN DROPS HAMMER ON HARVARD—NO MORE FOREIGN STUDENTS. The Department of Homeland Security just yanked Harvard’s ability to enroll international students, citing “violence, antisemitism, and CCP coordination.” Nearly 7,000 students now face transfer or deportation. The message? Hosting foreign students is a privilege, not a right—and elite schools aren't immune from federal standards. For Harvard this is retaliation. DHS says it’s nothing but enforcement. A red line’s been drawn—and it runs right through Cambridge.
  • TRUMP DECLARES ENERGY EMERGENCY, MOVES TO SUPERCHARGE U.S. NUCLEAR POWER. Trump is done waiting. Facing an AI-fueled power crunch, he’s invoking Cold War-era authority to launch a nuclear revival. Executive orders expected Friday will fast-track reactor approvals, unlock federal land for plant construction, and pour billions into uranium supply chains—cutting dependence on Russia and China. The goal: reclaim America’s nuclear dominance with speed and scale. Utilities like Constellation are already lining up. Trump’s not just boosting watts—he’s redrawing the energy map with uranium, reactors, and raw executive power. The AI boom demands it. The future runs on fission. 
  • This week’s episode is going to be fun. Flying cars are around the corner. (video
  • @LauraLoomer
  • @TheTranscript
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are +.25% to +.75% on average. 
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 81.25 -1.0 basis point. 
  • China Sovereign CDS 53.5 -1.5 basis points.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 98.9 USD/Metric Tonne -.15%.
  • Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.70 +.13%.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.99 -.04%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 70.1 -.7%.
  • US 10-Year Yield 4.52% -1.0 basis point.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 20.6 -.43%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.24%. 
  • S&P 500 futures +.06%. 
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.04%.
Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly higher, boosted by industrial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Reversing Higher into Afternoon on Lower Long-Term Rates, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Short-Covering, Retail/Tech Sector Strength

Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.0 -.11% 
  • US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.55% -5.0 basis points
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.34% unch.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 99.2 USD/Metric Tonne +.2%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 36.4 euros/megawatt-hour -.7%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 4.2 +12.2 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 8.3 -10.6 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 28.8 unch.
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(472 of 500 reporting) +11.3% +.1 percentage point
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 275.86 +.05:  Growth Rate +11.8% unch., P/E 21.2 -.3
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.30% -1.0 basis point
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(7 of 10 reporting) +29.1% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 425.86 +.06: Growth Rate +23.1% unch., P/E 32.0 -.2
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .29 -13.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 2.10 +58.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 6.0 -.1
  • US Yield Curve 54.75 basis points (2s/10s) -3.0 basis points
  • US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +2.4% unch.
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 37.0% unch.
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.60% unch.: CPI YoY +2.40% unch.
  • 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.95 -2.0 basis points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.36 -1.0 basis point
  • Highest target rate probability for July 30th FOMC meeting: 73.1% (unch.) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for Sept. 17th meeting: 49.6%(-2.0 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +215 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -12 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +120 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my industrial/financial/technology/consumer discretionary sector longs 
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

  • Large-Cap Growth +.7%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1)  Retail +2.0% 2) AI Innovation +1.6% 3) Cyber Security +1.5%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • AAP, IONQ, DFDV, DOMO, RGTI, QBTS, URBN, RAMP, SERV, QUBT, SEI, CEP, PONY, AEVA, SNOW, SYM, GLXY, RDW, ATAT, DK, NNE, TSSI, BULL, OKLO, GTX, ODD, GOOS, LFMD, DXYZ, MNSO, GT, XYZ, SMR, GME, GAP, OMCL, ALAB, CYBR, TEM, HUT, BFAM, GOGO, COIN, KRNT, RRR, HSAI, TD, STX, AKRO and SNRE
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) NVTS 2) MGA 3) CSX 4) COMP 5) AAP
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) URBN 2) SNOW 3) DOMO 4) AAP 5) RAMP
Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:
  • 1) BAI 2) SMH 3) XLE 4) XOP 5) XME
Charts:

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:
  • (BAH)/1.61
  • (BKE)/.69
  • (FRO)/.19
After the Close: 
  • None of note
Economic Releases

10:00 am EST

  • New Home Sales for April is estimated to fall to 695K versus 724K in March.

11:00 am EST

  • Kansas City Fed Services Activity for May.

Upcoming Splits

  • (COKE) 10-for-1
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Cook speaking, Fed's Schmid speaking, Bloomberg May US Economic Survey, weekly US Baker Hughes rig count, weekly CFTC speculative net positioning reports, (AMGN) annual meeting, (SOUN) annual meeting, (LYB) annual meeting and the (UPST) annual meeting could also impact global trading tomorrow.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • Volume Running +9.5% Above 100-Day Average 
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 15.5 -7.1
  • 8 Sectors Declining, 3 Sectors Rising
  • 40.9% of Issues Advancing, 56.7% Declining 
  • TRIN/Arms .70 -49.3%
  • Non-Block Money Flow -$152.3M
  • 18 New 52-Week Highs, 56 New Lows
  • 38.8% (-1.2%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 54.4 -6.6
Other:
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 71.5 +2.4%
  • Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 241.3 +.8%
  • Russell 1000: Growth/Value 21,208.3 +.9%
  • CNN Fear & Greed Index 68.0 (GREED) -1.0
  • 1-Day Vix 14.5 -19.7%
  • Vix 20.1 -3.7%
  • Total Put/Call .79 -10.2%

Wednesday, May 21, 2025

Thursday Watch

Around X:
  • @ElonMusk
  • @ZeroHedge
  • @MarioNawful
  • SEC. RUBIO: JUST 12 CENTS OF EACH AID DOLLAR REACHED RECIPIENT—THE REST FED FOREIGN INDUSTRIAL COMPLEX. "But these reforms had to happen at USAID. Twelve cents of every dollar was reaching the recipient. That means that in order for us to get, we had to spend all this southern money supporting this foreign aid industrial complex. We're gonna find more efficient ways to deliver aid to people directly, and it's gonna be part of a holistic approach to our foreign policy." (video)
  • FDA SLAPS STRONGER HEART WARNINGS ON COVID SHOTS FOR YOUNG MEN. The FDA just expanded heart inflammation warnings on Pfizer and Moderna’s COVID-19 vaccines — specifically targeting males 16–25. The agency cited persistent heart abnormalities in follow-up studies and new data showing 8 cases of myocarditis per million doses. These new labels follow earlier alerts for teens and young adults. The CDC still says the benefits outweigh the risks, but the FDA’s move coincides with stricter approval rules for future boosters under age 65. Senate hearings are also probing whether feds downplayed early myocarditis data. 
  • CHINA SLAMS TRUMP'S GOLDEN DOME, WARNS OF SPACE ARMS RACE. Beijing is fuming over Trump’s orbiting missile shield. China’s Foreign Ministry called the $175B Golden Dome plan a global destabilizer, accusing the U.S. of chasing “absolute security” at the cost of strategic balance. “Gravely concerned,” Beijing urged Washington to kill the project before it militarizes space. Trump fired back Tuesday, announcing the system will be “fully operational” within three years and able to intercept threats from space or anywhere on Earth. Four U.S. states and Canada are already enlisted. 
  • COLUMBIA GRADUATION ERUPTS AS PROTESTERS TORCH DIPLOMAS AND CLASH WITH COPS. What was meant to be a celebration of achievement turned into chaos at Columbia University’s graduation as pro-Palestinian protesters burned diplomas, booed speakers, and demanded the release of former student Mahmoud Khalil, now facing deportation for alleged ties to Hamas. President Claire Shipman was shouted down mid-speech, while police made arrests outside. With tightened campus security and federal pressure, tensions boiled over yet again. But Shipman’s remarks honoring Khalil shocked even some supporters, leaving parents and graduates stunned by the spectacle. 
  • TRUMP PLAYS “WHITE GENOCIDE” CLIPS—SA DELEGATION DOESN'T EVEN LOOK. Trump hits play in the Oval Office—videos of calls for “white genocide” in South Africa roll on screen... …and the South African delegation? Stone-faced. Barely a glance. No outrage. No denial. Just silence. Already seen it? Been there themselves? Or too embarrassed to face it? And Trump? He didn’t just talk about the issue—he made them watch it. (video)
  • THE ATLANTIC GOES FULL MASK-OFF ON ELON. The Atlantic just unloaded 6,000+ words on Elon—called "The Decline and Fall of Elon Musk." It’s all in there: anonymous backroom chatter, digs at his wardrobe, whispers from "unnamed officials," and a barely concealed sigh of relief that the world’s richest man didn’t bulldoze the federal machine. He challenged sacred cows, slashed red tape, and asked hard questions D.C. didn’t want to answer. Now the old guard is crowing that the system held, because they have to. This isn’t about Elon. It’s about the machine defending itself.
  • @TheTranscript
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -1.0% to -.25% on average. 
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 82.25 +3.25 basis points. 
  • China Sovereign CDS 55.0 +2.5 basis points.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 99.4 USD/Metric Tonne -.4%.
  • Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.73 +.02%.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.1 +.03%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 69.5 -.5%.
  • US 10-Year Yield 4.59% -1.0 basis point.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 20.7 -.4%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.57%. 
  • S&P 500 futures +.11%. 
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.12%.
Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly lower, weighed down by consumer discretionary and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower.  The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the day.