Friday, May 23, 2025

Evening Headlines

Around X:

  • @elonmusk
  • The effort undertaken by @DOGE and @elonmusk is one of the most important of my lifetime and I am committed to not letting the bureaucracy slow it down. We need to get the costs under control; we need to get government efficiency under control; and we need to make the government work better for the American people. At @USTreasury we’re committed to doing that. Much appreciated on behalf of the @DOGE team. (video)
  • I wonder if this why Elon has somewhat moved away from politics in order to accelerate GDP growth with humanoid robots. If he believes this is the only solution then this would be his most logical choice. I have come to the perhaps obvious conclusion that accelerating GDP growth is essential. @DOGE has and will do great work to postpone the day of bankruptcy of America, but the profligacy of government means that only radical improvements in productivity can save our country.
  • @Zerohedge
  • @MarioNawful  
  • ALEX SOROS CONDEMNED FOR CROCODILE TEARS AFTER FUNDING ANTI-JEWISH HATE. Alex Soros is getting torched online for condemning the murder of two Israeli embassy staffers—while his Open Society Foundation bankrolls the very groups that fuel anti-Jewish hatred. Sarah Milgrim and Yaron Lischinsky were gunned down outside D.C.'s Capital Jewish Museum by suspect Elias Rodriguez, who allegedly shouted "Free Palestine!" while in custody.
  • ELON BRIEFS GOP SENATORS ON AI ARMS RACE. Elon reportedly spent over an hour with Republican Commerce Committee members discussing America's AI competition with China, energy production challenges, and innovation roadblocks. Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX): "This was for Republican members of the Commerce Committee to ask questions, and he brought his X AI team to answer technical questions about what they're doing and what the challenges are they're facing. I think it was very productive." The meeting covered ramping up US energy production to fuel AI development, because apparently teaching computers to think requires more electricity than powering small countries.
  • CANADA EYES ENTRY INTO TRUMP’S $175B GOLDEN DOME MISSILE SHIELD. The north wants in. Canada is in high-level talks to join Trump’s colossal Golden Dome—an orbiting missile defense fortress meant to vaporize threats before they touch American soil. The $175 billion project promises full coverage over North America, with Trump declaring it will “intercept missiles from anywhere—even space.” Congress has already queued $25 billion to kickstart it. Carney’s team confirmed Canada is considering partnership as tensions rise and defense deals tighten.
  • NUCLEAR’S NEW ROLE IN POWERING AI’S ENERGY HUNGER. AI is gobbling electricity—and Goldman Sachs Research says nuclear will help feed the beast. By 2030, global data center power demand could surge over 160%, driven by AI. Nuclear’s zero-emission, 24/7 output makes it a prized baseload option—but it’ll cover less than 10% of the new need by decade’s end. Renewables and gas must fill the gap. Big tech already inked over 10 GW in new U.S. nuclear deals, signaling confidence.
  • BREAKING: SPACEX NAILS 450TH FALCON LANDING AS REUSABLE ROCKETS BECOME ROUTINE. SpaceX just stuck its 450th Falcon landing after launching 27 Starlink satellites from Vandenberg—proving Elon's vision of reusable rockets is now standard operating procedure. The veteran booster completed its 18th flight (previously launching military and commercial payloads) before touching down on the "Of Course I Still Love You" droneship in the Pacific. Remember when landing rockets seemed impossible? (video)
  • WHITE HOUSE GUTS NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL IN 30-MINUTE PURGE. More than 100 National Security Council staffers were placed on administrative leave today in a sweeping shakeup led by Secretary of State Rubio and National Security Advisor Rubio.
  • BIDEN ADMIN PUT COVID SKEPTICS ON DOMESTIC TERROR WATCHLIST
  • @DNIGabbard: "Parents [are] concerned their children may be forcibly vaccinated without consent Citizens who opposed Biden’s border policy — these Americans were flagged as having propensities to join militias or become domestic violent extremists." (video)
  • @LauraLoomer
  • @C_3C_3
  • @WallStreetApes
  • @EYakoby
  • @MikeBenzCyber
  • @stocktalkweekly
  • @VigilantFox
  • REPORT: BlackRock is quietly erasing homeownership—and it’s all part of the Great Reset plan. Globalist governments are quietly engineering a future where you’ll never own a home… because they’ve decided you don’t deserve to. It’s called Build to Rent, and it’s spreading like wildfire. It started in Australia, where foreign-backed corporations are getting tax breaks, fast-track approvals, and access to prime land, while everyday Aussies are being priced out of the market. This isn’t about solving the housing crisis. It’s a land grab. And it’s the Great Reset in action. “You will own nothing and be happy” isn’t just a slogan anymore—it’s public policy. Smart cities, CBDCs, AI surveillance, and Build to Rent housing all lead to the same end: total control and a complete loss of freedom. (video)
  • BREAKING: The Biden administration KNEW about deadly heart risks from COVID shots and DELIBERATELY kept it from the public. Sen. Ron Johnson just released subpoenaed records exposing a damning timeline of what officials knew and when. Pfizer and Moderna got insider updates from the government while those warning the public got censored. (video)

Weekly Scoreboard*


S&P 500 5,815.4 -2.3%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Weekly Market Wrap by Edward Jones.

Indices

  • DJIA 41,703.0 -2.1%
  • NASDAQ 18,798.0 -2.1%
  • Russell 2000 2,042.0 -3.3%
  • NYSE FANG+ 13,491.5 -.9%
  • Goldman 50 Most Shorted 171.7 -5.0%
  • Wilshire 5000 57,464.7 -2.4%
  • Russell 1000 Growth 3,944.3 -2.3%
  • Russell 1000 Value 1,832.5 -2.4%
  • S&P 500 Consumer Staples 902.6 -.23%
  • Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index(Ex Telecom) 239.67 -.8%
  • NYSE Technology 5,645.6 -2.6%
  • Transports 14,586.9 -3.8%
  • Utilities 1,035.6 -.8%
  • Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 143.1 -1.2%
  • MSCI Emerging Markets 46.3 -.07%
  • Credit Suisse AllHedge Long/Short Equity Index 215.3 +.7%
  • Credit Suisse AllHedge Equity Market Neutral Index 123.1 +.8%
Sentiment/Internals
  • NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 545,222 -.37%
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 15.2 -9.0%
  • Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 51 -266
  • Crude Oil Commercial Bullish % Net Position -18.9 +2.0%
  • CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 185,301 +5.6%
  • CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,948,499 -1.7%
  • Total Put/Call .89 +27.1%
  • OEX Put/Call .90 -44.7%
  • ISE Sentiment 145.0 -7.0
  • NYSE Arms .65 -24.1%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 68.7 -3.2%
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .27 -10.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg European Financial Conditions Index 1.46 +25.0 basis points
  • Volatility(VIX) 21.9 +25.9%
  • S&P 500 Intraday % Swing .70 -18.9%
  • CBOE S&P 500 3M Implied Correlation Index 24.0 +20.5%
  • G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 9.34 +8.5%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 8.69 +2.5%
  • Smart Money Flow Index 22,927.9 +3.3%
  • NAAIM Exposure Index  80.9 +10.3
  • ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $6.969 Trillion +.40%
  • ICI Domestic Equity Long-Term Mutual Fund/ETFs Weekly Flows +$8.426 Million
  • AAII % Bulls 37.7 +5.0%
  • AAII % Bears 36.7 -17.3%
  • CNN Fear & Greed Index 64.0 (GREED) -7.0
Futures Spot Prices
  • CRB Index 296.27 +.14%
  • Crude Oil 61.68/bbl. -1.3%
  • Reformulated Gasoline 211.2 -1.4%
  • Natural Gas 3.33 +.03%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 36.5 euros/megawatt-hour +3.8%
  • Heating Oil 211.0 -1.5% 
  • Newcastle Coal 106.5 (1,000/metric ton) +4.4%
  • Gold 3,361.9 +4.9%
  • Silver 33.48 +3.7%
  • S&P GSCI Industrial Metals Index 447.1 -.2%
  • Copper 485.8 +6.0%
  • US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 340.0 USD/Metric Tonne -.9%
  • China Iron Ore Spot 98.1 USD/Metric Tonne -1.4%
  • China Battery Grade Lithium Carbonate 9,025.0 USD/metric tonne n/a
  • CME Lumber  600.0 -.5%
  • UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,454.4 +.4%
  • US Gulf NOLA Potash Spot 321.0 USD/Short Ton +1.1%
Economy
  • Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +2.4% unch.
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 37.0 -1.8 percentage points
  • NY Fed Real-Time Weekly Economic Index 1.9 -8.2%
  • US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 265.9 -55.2%
  • Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 5.5 -25.1%
  • DOGE Total Taxpayer Dollars Saved $170.0 Billion($1,055.90 Savings Per Taxpayer) unch.
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(478 of 500 reporting) +11.3% -.6 percentage point
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 275.88 -.52:  Growth Rate +11.8% -.2 percentage point, P/E 21.2 -.2
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.30% -4.0 basis points
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(7 of 10 reporting) +29.1% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 425.79 +.58: Growth Rate +23.1% +.1 percentage point, P/E 31.8 -.2
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 6.0 +18.8 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 12.5 -2.9 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 30.9 +2.3 points
  • Fed Fund Futures imply 5.4%(-3.2 percentage points) chance of -25.0 basis point cut to 4.0-4.25%, 94.6%(+3.2 percentage points) chance of no change, 0.0%(unch.) chance of +25.0 basis point hike to 4.5-4.75% on 6/18
  • US Dollar Index 99.1 -1.8%
  • MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,819.6 +.23%
  • Bitcoin/USD 108,804.5 +4.6%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 182.0 -.34%
  • Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.73 +1.5%
  • Yield Curve(2s/10s) 51.5 +5.5 basis points
  • 10-Year US Treasury Yield 4.51% +7.0 basis points
  • Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $6.641 Trillion -.37%
  • Federal Reserve's Discount Window Usage $1.892 Billion -19.2%
  • U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 54.4 +1.8%
  • Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 233.1 +1.5%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 102.0 +1.0 basis point
  • UK Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 19.8 -1.2%
  • China Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 53.8 +2.8%
  • Brazil Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 169.5 +2.3%
  • Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 103.2 +2.6%
  • South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 31.2 +.5%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 23.89 -.31%
  • China High-Yield Real Estate Total Return Index 121.98 -.42%
  • Atlanta Fed Low Skill Wage Growth Tracker YoY +3.8% unch.
  • Zillow US All Homes Rent Index YoY +3.3% unch.
  • US Urban Consumers Food CPI YoY +2.7% unch.
  • CPI Core Services Ex-Shelter YoY +3.0% unch.
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.60% unch.: CPI YoY +2.40% +2.0 basis points
  • 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.98% +11.0 basis points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.35 -1.0 basis point
  • Treasury Repo 3M T-Bill Spread 7.25 basis points +11.25 basis points
  • 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -23.5 -3.0 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -3.5 -1.75 basis points
  • N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 59.6 +6.6%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 251.0 +1.7
  • Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 226.0 -7.0
  • European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 65.5 +6.4%
  • Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 153.2 +3.9%
  • Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 175.2 +4.0%
  • MBS 5/10 Treasury Spread 157.0 +5.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 615.0 -2.0 basis points
  • Avg. Auto ABS OAS .61 -3.0 basis points
  • M2 Money Supply YoY % Change +4.1% unch.
  • Commercial Paper Outstanding $1,442.9B +1.7%
  • 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 231,500 +.43%
  • Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.2% unch.
  • Kastle Back-to-Work Barometer(entries in secured buildings) 53.4 -.09%
  • Average 30-Year Fixed Home Mortgage Rate 6.91% +5.0 basis points
  • Weekly Mortgage Applications 238,500 -5.1%
  • Weekly Retail Sales +5.6% -20.0 basis points
  • OpenTable US Seated Diners % Change YoY +7.0% +2.0 percentage points
  • Box Office Weekly Gross $115.5M -39.4%
  • Nationwide Gas $3.20/gallon +.01/gallon
  • Baltic Dry Index 1,341.0 -3.4%
  • Drewry World Container Freight Index $2,276.3/40 ft Box +1.9%
  • China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 1,107.4 +.23%
  • Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 30.0 unch.
  • Truckstop.com Market Demand Index 85.0 +43.8%
  • Rail Freight Carloads 261,549 -4.3%
  • TSA Total Traveler Throughput 2,959,287 +28.0%
Best Performing Style
  • Large-Cap Growth -2.4%
Worst Performing Style
  • Small-Cap Value -3.8%
Leading Sectors
  • Gold & Silver +7.6%
  • Biotech +.2%
  • Video Gaming +.1%
  • Construction -.3%
  • Pharma -.3%
Lagging Sectors
  • Regional Banks -4.6%
  • Digital Health -4.7%
  • Alt Energy -5.1%
  • Oil Service -5.5%
  • Homebuilding -5.7%
Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (26)
  • LTBR, MRUS, NNE, OKLO, LEU, QUBT, SMR, CCJ, BWXT, X, FLR, INTU, DXYZ, DOMO, MIR, ARQQ, KEP, SEI, RGTI, GME, GOOS, CRWV, IONQ, QBTS, NBIS, GSRT, SPRY and CW
Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (13)
  • BIRK, DAVA, OLLI, HNRG, BULL, ROST, CPRT, WDAY, GOGO, PONY, BAH, MNSO and DECK
ETFs
Stocks
*5-Day Change


Stocks Modestly Lower into Afternoon on US-Global Trade Deals Uncertainty, Earnings Outlook Jitters, Technical Selling, Tech/Retail Sector Weakness

Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.1 +.26% 
  • US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.51% -2.0 basis points
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.33% -1.0 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 98.1 USD/Metric Tonne -.02%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 36.5 euros/megawatt-hour +.3%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 6.0 +1.8 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 12.5 +4.2 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 30.9 +2.1 points
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(478 of 500 reporting) +11.3% unch.
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 275.88 +.02:  Growth Rate +11.8% unch., P/E 21.0 -.2
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.30% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(7 of 10 reporting) +29.1% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 425.79 -.07: Growth Rate +23.1% unch., P/E 31.6 -.4
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .27 -2.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.46 -64.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 5.5 -.5
  • US Yield Curve 51.5 basis points (2s/10s) -3.25 basis points
  • US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +2.4% unch.
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 37.0% unch.
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.60% unch.: CPI YoY +2.40% unch.
  • 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.98 +3.0 basis points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.35 -1.0 basis point
  • Highest target rate probability for July 30th FOMC meeting: 77.6% (+4.5 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for Sept. 17th meeting: 47.9%(-1.8 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -295 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +2 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +35 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my industrial/utility sector longs and index hedges
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long

Tuesday's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:
  • (AZO)/37.10
  • (PDD)/18.89
After the Close: 
  • (BOX)/.26
  • (OKTA)/.77
  • (SMTC)/.37
  • (SQM)/.58
  • (CRMT)/.86
Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

  • Durable Goods Orders for April is estimated to fall -8.0% versus a +9.2% gain in March.
  • Durables Ex Transports for April is estimated to rise +.1% versus unch. in March.
  • Cap Goods Orders Non-Defense Ex-Air for April is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.1% gain in March.

9:00 am EST

  • FHFA House Price Index MoM for March is estimated to rise +.1% versus a +.1% gain in Feb.
  • 1Q House Price Purchase Index QoQ.
  • S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM for March is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.4% gain in February. 

10:00 am EST

  • The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index for May is estimated to rise to 87.0 versus 86.0 in April.
  • Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity for May.

Upcoming Splits

  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Kashkari speaking, Fed's Waller speaking, Fed's Williams speaking, weekly US retail sales reports, KeyBanc Industrials/Basic Materials Conference, TD Cowen Tech/Meida/Telecom Conference, (TTD) annual meeting, (MRK) annual meeting and the Craig-Hallum Institutional Investor Conference could also impact global trading on Tuesday.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST