Wednesday, May 28, 2025

Thursday Watch

Around X:

  • @ElonMusk
  • @ZeroHedge
  • @MarioNawful
  • @LauraLoomer
  • @TheTranscript 
  • @WallStreetApes
  • @StephenM
  • @BennyJohnson
  • @GlobalMktObserv 
  • @tonyclimate
  • @EricLDaugh 
  • BREAKING: Florida Governor Ron DeSantis just went OFF about no DOGE cuts being voted on by Congress. "DOGE fought the swamp, and so far, the swamp has won." "DON'T tell me it can't be done." "@ElonMusk went into this DOGE effort - he was getting LAMPOONED...firebombing his tesla dealerships, media smearing him relentlessly..." "We have a Republican congress and to this day, we're at the end of May, past Memorial Day, and not one CENT in DOGE cuts have been implemented by the Congress!" "That's one of the reasons why we need a balanced budget amendment to the U.S. Constitution. That's another reason why we need term limits for members of Congress." (video)
  • @prime_sapiens
  • @PeterSweden7
  • @catturd2
  • @IanJaeger29
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are unch. to +1.0% on average. 
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 77.5 -1.0 basis point. 
  • China Sovereign CDS 50.75 -.25 basis point.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 95.5 USD/Metric Tonne +.3%.
  • Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.65 -.51%.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.98 -.1%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 70.0 +.6%.
  • US 10-Year Yield 4.50% +2.0 basis points.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 19.2 -3.9%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.93%. 
  • S&P 500 futures +1.5%. 
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +1.8%.
Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly higher, boosted by industrial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open higher and to maintain gains into the afternoon.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Slightly Lower into Final Hour on Long-Term Rate Rise, Technical Selling, Profit-Taking, Homebuilding/Utility Sector Weakness

Broad Equity Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 18.8 -1.0%
  • S&P 500 Intraday % Swing .64 -46.7%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 70.7 +2.8% 
  • Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.69 +.03%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 183.9 +.05%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.46 -.7%
  • CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 20.3 +2.4% 
  • ISE Sentiment Index 194.0 +47.0
  • Total Put/Call .72 -18.2%
  • NYSE Arms .69 -33.7%
  • NYSE Non-Block Money Flow -$139.7M 
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 55.9 +.4%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 418.5 -.9%
  • Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 217.0 -8.0
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 62.0 -.3%
  • Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 146.2 -1.9%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 98.0 basis points -3.0 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 78.6 -1.1%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 170.5 +.1%
  • Israel Sovereign CDS 97.1 -1.8%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 23.93 -.03%
  • 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -22.0 basis points +1.75 basis points
  • 3M T-Bill Treasury Repo Spread 2.75 basis point +2.75 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -2.75 +.5 basis point
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 154.0 -3.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 612.0 -1.0 basis point
  • Avg. Auto ABS OAS 60.0 -1.0 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.02 -.2% 
  • US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.48% +3.0 basis points
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.33% +3.0 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 95.4 USD/Metric Tonne +.3%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 36.7 euros/megawatt-hour -.9%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 14.3 +1.1 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 13.6 -1.1 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 34.1 +2.6 points
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(479 of 500 reporting) +11.3% unch.
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 276.22 +.05:  Growth Rate +12.0% unch., P/E 21.4 unch.
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.30% +1.0 basis point
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(7 of 10 reporting) +29.1% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 426.53 +.04: Growth Rate +23.3% unch., P/E 32.4 +.2
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .33 +20.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.45 -34.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 6.5 +.5
  • US Yield Curve 48.25 basis points (2s/10s) +2.75 basis points
  • US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +2.2% unch.
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 39.7% unch.
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.60% unch.: CPI YoY +2.40% unch.
  • 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.92 unch.
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.34 unch.
  • Highest target rate probability for July 30th FOMC meeting: 75.6% (unch.) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for Sept. 17th meeting: 47.2%(-1.8 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +205 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -106 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +131 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my tech sector longs, index hedges and emerging market shorts
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

  • Small-Cap Value -.7%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Homebuilding -2.6% 2) Utilities -1.5% 3) Pharma -1.2%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • FBIN, PHR, OSCR, TTAN, NPCE, AOS, SKY, GME, DXYZ, ARQQ, GDS, HURN, PLAB, NNE, PONY, OKTA and TEM
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) ANF 2) JOBY 3) OKTA 4) LFMD 5) WEN
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) CODI 2) KC 3) IFRX 4) TEM 5) ZBIO
Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:
  • 1) XLE  2) FDN 3) KRE 4) XBI 5) XLP

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

  • Large-Cap Growth +.2%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1)  Gold & Silver +.9% 2) Alt Energy +.8% 3) Disk Drives +.6%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • MNRO, BOX, ITOS, U, ANF, OUST, AEVA, FICO, CPS, MTN, HEI, HEI/A, LTBR, BNED, EH, WBD, AAP, MBLY, AEHR, OKLO, QXO, ANAB, ZTO, ANGO, KYMR, MP, BWXT, PFGC and LINC
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) ANF 2) JOBY 3) OKTA 4) MP 5) KBE
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) JOBY 2) BOX 3) ANF 4) BROG 5) HEI
Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:
  • 1) SMH 2) XLK 3) MSTY 4) XRT 5) XLC
Charts:

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:
  • (AMWD)/1.42
  • (BBWI)/.42
  • (BBY)/1.09
  • (BURL)/1.43
  • (FL)/-.05
  • (HRL)/.34
  • (KSS)/-.25
  • (SPTN)/.46
After the Close: 
  • (AMBA)/.04
  • (AEO)/-.25
  • (COO)/.93
  • (COST)/4.24
  • (DELL)/1.70
  • (GAP)/.45
  • (MRVL)/.61
  • (NTAP)/1.90
  • (PD)/.19
  • (ULTA)/5.81
  • (ZS)/.75
Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

  • 1Q GDP revisions.
  • Initial Jobless Claims are estimated to rise to 230K versus 227K the prior week.
  • Continuing Claims is estimated to fall to 1892K versus 1903K prior. 

10:00 am EST

  • Pending Home Sales MoM for April is estimated to fall -1.0% versus a +6.1% gain in March.

10:30 am EST

  • Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory decline of -173,830 barrels versus a +1,328,000 barrel gain the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to rise by +118,500 barrels versus a +816,000 barrel gain the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to rise by +560,830 barrels versus a +579,000 barrel gain the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to rise by +.82% versus a +.5% gain prior.

Upcoming Splits

  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Daly speaking, Fed's Goolsbee speaking, Fed's Kugler speaking, Fed's Barkin speaking, Fed's Logan speaking, 7Y T-Note auction, Fed's weekly balance sheet report, weekly EIA natural gas inventory report, Bernstein Strategic Decisions Conference, Jefferies Software Summit, Jefferies Public Tech Conference, American Society of Clinical Oncology Meeting, (ZBH) annual meeting, (DG) annual meeting, (ALL) annual meeting, (DOCU) annual meeting, (MOS) annual meeting, (DG) annual meeting, (MOS) annual meeting, (RBLX) annual meeting, (LOCO) annual meeting, (NTGR) annual meeting, (AXON) annual meeting and the (IRM) annual meeting could also impact global trading tomorrow.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • Volume Running -4.7% Below 100-Day Average 
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 15.7 +.4
  • 8 Sectors Declining, 3 Sectors Rising
  • 27.0% of Issues Advancing, 71.2% Declining 
  • TRIN/Arms .73 -29.8%
  • Non-Block Money Flow -$100.0M
  • 50 New 52-Week Highs, 9 New Lows
  • 40.6% (-4.5%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 57.5 -1.9
Other:
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 70.6 +2.7%
  • Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 241.9 +.14%
  • Russell 1000: Growth/Value 21,223.3 +.43%
  • CNN Fear & Greed Index 66.0 (GREED) unch.
  • 1-Day Vix 15.7 +19.7%
  • Vix 19.0 +.4%
  • Total Put/Call .73 -17.1%