Thursday, May 29, 2025

Friday Watch

Around X:

  • @ElonMusk
  • For the past several days, Tesla has been testing self-driving Model Y cars (no one in driver’s seat) on Austin public streets with no incidents. A month ahead of schedule. Next month, first self-delivery from factory to customer.
  • @ZeroHedge
  • @MarioNawful
  • NVIDIA + DELL + TRUMP = NEXT-LEVEL SUPERCOMPUTER. The government just hit “build” on a mega AI brain. Nvidia and Dell are teaming up with Trump’s crew to launch “Doudna.” This monster supercomputer is dropping in 2026. It’s basically Iron Man’s lab, but real, and at Berkeley Lab. It’s 10x faster than anything before, and it’s built to crack fusion energy, invent new meds, and mess with quantum stuff most people pretend to understand. Trump’s calling it a power move. Nvidia says it’s a "science time machine." Either way, it’s America going full nerd... on purpose. 
  • TAP, PAUSE, GOOGLE IT: YOUTUBE’S NEW POWER MOVE. YouTube’s adding Google Lens to Shorts, which means you can now pause a video and search anything you see—without leaving the app. Watching a clip in Paris and wondering what that fancy tower is? Tap it. Like someone’s shoes? Highlight them. Lens will give you instant answers right on top of the video. No ads (yet), and it won’t work on paid promos or shopping links—but everything else? Fair game. Basically, YouTube just made being nosey way easier. TikTok and Instagram? Still catching up. 
  • TRADE CZAR NAVARRO: “MAIN STREET GETS IT, WALL STREET DOESN’T”. "The emergency is $1.3 trillion a year going abroad, $18 trillion of American wealth so far transferred into foreign hands. Millions of jobs lost, hundreds of thousands of factories gone. That’s the emergency. Main Street understands this, Wall Street is in denial.". (video) 
  • PRESS SEC LEAVITT: “ACTIVIST JUDGES ARE SABOTAGING THE U.S.”. "Last night, the Trump administration faced another example of judicial overreach. 3 judges brazenly abused their judicial power to usurp the authority of Trump. The president’s rationale for imposing these powerful tariffs was legally sound and grounded in common sense." (video)
  • QUANTUM COMPUTING: THE NEXT TECH GOLD RUSH. Quantum computing (QC) is about to blow up the tech world. Think of it as AI on steroids—but here’s the kicker: the entire U.S. quantum sector is worth less than Dogecoin. Imagine buying Bitcoin at $500. That’s where QC is today. Regular computers process in 1s and 0s. QCs use qubits, which can be 1, 0, or both at the same time (superposition). Translation? They solve ridiculously complex problems insanely fast. 
  • AI COULD OUT-ENERGY BITCOIN BY YEAR’S END. Artificial intelligence isn’t just hungry for data; it’s power-thirsty too. New estimates say AI could burn more electricity than Bitcoin mining by the end of 2025, potentially guzzling as much energy as the UK. And that’s with efficiency gains, they are offset by increased usage (Jevons paradox). Why? Because big tech keeps chasing bigger models, bigger bragging rights, and building data centers that light up like small cities. Researchers are calling it the next energy crisis no one’s measuring. And AI isn’t cooling off: it’s just getting started.
  • @LauraLoomer 
  • @TheTranscript 
  • @RodDMartin
  • @AGPambondi
  • @DerrickEvans4WV
  • @WallStreetApes
  • @SecScottBessent
  • @KobeissiLetter 
  • @matt_vanswol
  • @catturd2
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -1.25% to -.25% on average. 
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 77.75 +.25 basis point. 
  • China Sovereign CDS 51.0 +.25 basis point.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 96.0 USD/Metric Tonne -.92%.
  • Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.73 -.04%.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.07 -.16%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 68.5 -1.0%.
  • US 10-Year Yield 4.42% unch.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 20.2 +1.0%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.15%. 
  • S&P 500 futures -.27%. 
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.37%.
Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by consumer discretionary and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to maintain losses into the afternoon.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Modestly Higher into Final Hour on Lower Long-Term Rates, Declining Inflation Expectations, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Energy/Biotech Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 19.2 -.4%
  • S&P 500 Intraday % Swing .77 -8.0%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 68.5 -1.7% 
  • Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.74 +.51%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 184.34 +.24%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.43 -.59%
  • CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 21.9 +3.5% 
  • ISE Sentiment Index 176.0 +10.0
  • Total Put/Call .73 -8.8%
  • NYSE Arms 1.64 +74.5%
  • NYSE Non-Block Money Flow +$43.4M 
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 56.4 +.5%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 418.95 -2.9%
  • Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 215.0 -2.0
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 61.7 -.6%
  • Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 143.7 -1.7%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 98.0 basis points unch.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 76.9 -2.1%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 171.0 +.3%
  • Israel Sovereign CDS 98.1 +1.1%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 23.77 +.04%
  • 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -22.5 basis points -.5 basis point
  • 3M T-Bill Treasury Repo Spread 2.25 basis point -.5 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -1.5 +1.25 basis points
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 155.0 +1.0 basis point
  • Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 614.0 +2.0 basis points
  • Avg. Auto ABS OAS 60.0 unch.
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.15 +.36% 
  • US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.42% -6.0 basis points
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.34% +1.0 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 97.0 USD/Metric Tonne +.06%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 35.2 euros/megawatt-hour -4.2%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 11.9 -2.4 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 14.9 +1.3 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 35.5 +1.4 points
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(487 of 500 reporting) +12.5% +1.2 percentage points
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 276.19 -.03:  Growth Rate +8.7% -3.3 percentage points, P/E 21.3 -.1
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.26% -4.0 basis points
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(8 of 10 reporting) +32.5% +3.4 percentage points
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 426.46 -.07: Growth Rate +23.3% unch., P/E 32.2 -.2
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .33 unch.
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.45 unch.
  • Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 6.8 +.3
  • US Yield Curve 48.25 basis points (2s/10s) unch.
  • US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +2.2% unch.
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 37.5% -2.2 percentage points
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.60% unch.: CPI YoY +2.40% unch.
  • 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.78 -14.0 basis points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.32 -2.0 basis points
  • Highest target rate probability for July 30th FOMC meeting: 74.9% (-2.7 percentage points) chance of 4.25%-4.5%. Highest target rate probability for Sept. 17th meeting: 52.8%(+4.7 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -527 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -136 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +20 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my utility/financial/industrial sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

  • Mid-Cap Value +.1%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Alt Energy -1.2% 2) Road & Rail -1.2% 3) Computer Hardware -1.2%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • BULL, BURL, UBER, U, NTNX, ETON, GME, ANF, SMR, CRM, PSTG, ANET, BBWI, PONY, BBY, GPQ, ARQQ, S, HLNE, LTBR and CAL
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) EOSE 2) NTNX 3) AI 4) ELF 5) S
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) NTLA 2) HPQ 3) S 4) BBY 5) CAR
Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:
  • 1) XLF  2) XLE 3) EXI 4) ITB 5) XLV

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

  • Large-Cap Growth +.5%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1)  Biotech +1.7% 2) Semis +.9% 3) Healthcare Providers +.9%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • LZMH, AI, ELF, VEEV, BBW, DOOO, MRUS, XYF, ARWR, BPMC, NDSN, AVBP, NVMI, AKRO, VERA, SPTN, RDDT, DNLI, KYMR, PRSU, ANAB, ICUI, NVDA, JD, AGIO, LI, VRNA, LQDA, EL, ETSY, PLAB, MRNA, DECK, PHR and IONS
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) S 2) AGNC 3) UBS 4) PRMW 5) AI
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) VEEV 2) ELF 3) NVDA 4) AI 5) ORIC
Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:
  • 1) SMH 2) XLK 3) MSTY 4) ITA 5) CIBR
Charts:

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:
  • (SCVL)/.30
After the Close: 
  • None of note
Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

  • Personal Income  for April is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.5% gain in March.
  • Personal Spending for April is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.7% gain in March.
  • Core PCE Price Index MoM for April is estimated to rise +.1% versus unch. in March.
  • The Advance Goods Trade Balance report for April is estimated at -$143.0B versus -$162.0B in March.
  • Wholesale Inventories MoM for April is estimated to rise +.4% versus a +.4% gain in March.
  • Retail Inventories MoM for April is estimated to fall -.1% versus a -.1% decline in March.

9:45 am EST

  • The MNI Chicago PMI for May is estimated to rise to 45.0 versus 44.6 in April.

10:00 am EST

  • Final U. Mich. Consumer Sentiment readings for May.

Upcoming Splits

  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Bostic speaking, Fed's Goolsbee speaking, Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 update, Dallas Fed PCE for April, US Baker Hughes rig count, weekly CFTC speculative net positioning reports, American Society of Clinical Oncology Meeting, (LOW) annual meeting, (RIG) annual meeting, (XP) annual meeting and the (ANET) annual meeting could also impact global trading tomorrow.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • Volume Running +.8% Above 100-Day Average 
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 27.2 +11.5
  • 5 Sectors Declining, 6 Sectors Rising
  • 57.5% of Issues Advancing, 39.9% Declining 
  • TRIN/Arms 1.52 +61.7%
  • Non-Block Money Flow +$35.7M
  • 39 New 52-Week Highs, 10 New Lows
  • 40.8% (+1.3%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 56.3 -1.2
Other:
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 69.1 -.9%
  • Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 241.0 -.03%
  • Russell 1000: Growth/Value 21,315.4 +.5%
  • CNN Fear & Greed Index 66.0 (GREED) unch.
  • 1-Day Vix 14.7 -24.7%
  • Vix 19.2 -.4%
  • Total Put/Call .68 -15.0%