Saturday, June 21, 2025

Today's Headlines

Around X:

  • @realDonaldTrump
  • @Business
  • @Zerohedge 
  • @MarioNawful
  • CHINA THREATENS U.S. WITH GLOBAL BLOWBACK IF IT BACKS ISRAEL. A top Chinese Communist Party official warned that if the U.S. or its allies jump into the war on Israel’s side, they won’t be the only ones showing up armed. He called the conflict against Iran an "unjustified and undeclared act of aggression" and argued Tehran has every legal right to fire back. The most eyebrow-raising part? “Other major countries want to fight together with Iran.” Not exactly subtle. Beijing may not be launching missiles, but it’s clearly lighting rhetorical ones. (video)
  • BarronsOnline
  • Had bullish commentary on (PINS) and (TPR).
  • @IGSquawk 
  • Polymarket
  • Fordow nuclear facility destroyed before July? 79% Chance.
  • Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz in 2025? 54% Chance.
  • @WSJ
  • @CNBC
  • @Osint613
  • @LauraLoomer
  • @FoxNews 
  • @GatewayPundit 
  • @WallStreetApes
  • @EYakoby
  • @unusual_whales
  • @GordonGChang
  • @DC_Draino
  • @FirstSquawk
  • @SpartaJustice
  • @GlobalMktObserv
  • China's official holdings of US Treasuries have dropped for the 2nd month straight: The value of Treasuries held by China has fallen $27 billion to $757 billion in April, the lowest in 16 YEARS. However, China is likely owning $300-$700 billion through Belgium and Luxembourg. (graph)
  • US economic activity is deteriorating: The US Economic Surprise index dropped to the lowest level in 9 months. Most recently, US retail sales and industrial production readings disappointed. (graph)
  • @mitchellvii
  • @LeadingReport
  • @cb_doge
  • @LawrenceSellin
OpenVAERS: 
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Friday, June 20, 2025

Weekly Scoreboard*


S&P 500 5,970.3 -1.2%

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Weekly Market Wrap by Edward Jones.

Indices

  • DJIA 42,152.4 -1.8%
  • NASDAQ 19,429.2 -1.1%
  • Russell 2000 2,109.4 -1.4%
  • NYSE FANG+ 14,072.4 -1.2%
  • Goldman 50 Most Shorted 193.1 +.2%
  • Wilshire 5000 58,901.6 -1.2%
  • Russell 1000 Growth 4,068.7 -1.5%
  • Russell 1000 Value 1,865.7 -.9%
  • S&P 500 Consumer Staples 890.5 -1.4%
  • Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index(Ex Telecom) 240.7 -.1%
  • NYSE Technology 5,910.8 -1.0%
  • Transports 14,728.2 -1.1%
  • Utilities 1,037.8 -.4%
  • Bloomberg European Bank/Financial Services 140.47 -.8%
  • MSCI Emerging Markets 46.5 -2.9%
  • Credit Suisse AllHedge Long/Short Equity Index 224.8 +2.1%
  • Credit Suisse AllHedge Equity Market Neutral Index 125.4 +.3%
Sentiment/Internals
  • NYSE Cumulative A/D Line 552,496 -.2%
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 9.0 -30.2%
  • Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index 127 -489
  • Crude Oil Commercial Bullish % Net Position -20.4 -9.9%
  • CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position 191,941 +14.3%
  • CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 2,017,212 +.34%
  • Total Put/Call .86 -5.56%
  • OEX Put/Call 1.03 -.05%
  • ISE Sentiment 147.0 +8.0
  • NYSE Arms .79 -41.8%
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 69.9 +5.0%
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .04 -36.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg European Financial Conditions Index 1.18 -1.0 basis point 
  • Volatility(VIX) 24.0 +13.1%
  • S&P 500 Intraday % Swing .99 -6.2%
  • CBOE S&P 500 3M Implied Correlation Index 23.1 +16.6%
  • G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 8.57 -2.6%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility (EM-VXY) 8.0 unch.
  • Smart Money Flow Index 22,816.9 -.63%
  • NAAIM Exposure Index  94.1 +11.4
  • ICI Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $7.007 Trillion -.13%
  • ICI Domestic Equity Long-Term Mutual Fund/ETFs Weekly Flows -$2.074 Million
  • AAII % Bulls 33.2 -9.5%
  • AAII % Bears 41.4 +23.2%
  • CNN Fear & Greed Index 57.0 (GREED) -5.0
Futures Spot Prices
  • CRB Index 314.4 +3.7%
  • Crude Oil 75.50/bbl. +8.9%
  • Reformulated Gasoline 232.3 +7.1%
  • Natural Gas 3.85 +8.6%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 40.9 euros/megawatt-hour +9.0%
  • Heating Oil 256.3 +15.2% 
  • Newcastle Coal 112.4 (1,000/metric ton) +2.1%
  • Gold 3,367.6 -1.9%
  • Silver 36.1 -.7%
  • S&P GSCI Industrial Metals Index 454.9 +.2%
  • Copper 483.5 -.1%
  • US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 342.0 USD/Metric Tonne +1.8%
  • China Iron Ore Spot 93.9 USD/Metric Tonne +.05%
  • China Battery Grade Lithium Carbonate 8,650.0 USD/metric tonne unch.
  • CME Lumber  618.0 -1.4%
  • UBS-Bloomberg Agriculture 1,427.7 +.9%
  • US Gulf NOLA Potash Spot 327.5 USD/Short Ton unch.
Economy
  • Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +3.4% -.4 percentage point
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 39.7 -1.0 percentage point
  • NY Fed Real-Time Weekly Economic Index 2.01 +3.6%
  • US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index 308.9 -11.8%
  • Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 4.3 -.7%
  • DOGE Total Taxpayer Dollars Saved $180.0 Billion($1,118.01 Savings Per Taxpayer) unch.
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(8 of 500 reporting) +1.4% n/a
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 278.51 +.72:  Growth Rate +9.6% +.3 percentage point, P/E 21.5 -.3
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.24% +3.0 basis points
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 433.34 +1.82: Growth Rate +16.0% +.4 percentage point, P/E 32.7 -.3
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -23.9 -15.5 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 29.5 +3.1 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 30.0 -3.5 points
  • Fed Fund Futures imply 16.5%(-6.5 percentage points) chance of -25.0 basis point cut to 4.0-4.25%, 83.5%(+6.6 percentage points) chance of no change, 0.0%(-.1 percentage point) chance of +25.0 basis point hike to 4.5-4.75% on 7/30
  • US Dollar Index 98.7 +.8%
  • MSCI Emerging Markets Currency Index 1,831.3 -.23%
  • Bitcoin/USD 102,874.5 -1.9%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 189.5 +1.2%
  • Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.79 -.75%
  • Yield Curve(2s/10s) 46.5 +.25 basis point
  • 10-Year US Treasury Yield 4.37% -5.0 basis points
  • Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $6.630 Trillion unch.
  • Federal Reserve's Discount Window Usage $3.067 Billion unch.
  • U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 44.7 -5.4%
  • Illinois Municipal Debt Credit Default Swap 211.3 -.12%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 98.0 +3.0 basis points
  • UK Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 17.1 -2.4%
  • China Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 53.5 +13.9%
  • Brazil Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 157.5 +1.9%
  • Israel Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 111.9 -8.9%
  • South Korea Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 27.7 +1.6%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 23.9 unch.
  • China High-Yield Real Estate Total Return Index 120.35 -.03%
  • Atlanta Fed Low Skill Wage Growth Tracker YoY +3.9% unch.
  • Zillow US All Homes Rent Index YoY +3.1% -20.0 basis points
  • US Urban Consumers Food CPI YoY +2.9% unch.
  • CPI Core Services Ex-Shelter YoY +3.1% unch.
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.58% unch.: CPI YoY +2.62% +1.0 basis point
  • 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.70 +9.0 basis points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.34 +4.0 basis points
  • Treasury Repo 3M T-Bill Spread 3.0 basis points -5.0 basis points 
  • 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -22.75 +.25 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -1.5 +1.25 basis points
  • N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 56.32 +.7%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield Credit Default Swap Index 209.0 +4.2
  • Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 226.0 +5.0
  • European Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 63.1 +1.6%
  • Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 143.7 +.7%
  • Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 169.9 +1.3%
  • MBS 5/10 Treasury Spread 153.0 +4.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 600.0 -4.0 basis points
  • Avg. Auto ABS OAS .56 -1.0 basis point
  • M2 Money Supply YoY % Change +4.4% unch.
  • Commercial Paper Outstanding $1,470.7B unch.
  • 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 245,500 +2.0%
  • Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 1.3% unch.
  • Kastle Back-to-Work Barometer(entries in secured buildings) 53.7 -1.1%
  • Average 30-Year Fixed Home Mortgage Rate 6.88% unch.
  • Weekly Mortgage Applications 248,100 -2.6%
  • Weekly Retail Sales +5.0% +.3 percentage point
  • OpenTable US Seated Diners % Change YoY +22.0% +11.0 percentage points
  • Box Office Weekly Gross $161.2M -22.3%
  • Nationwide Gas $3.22/gallon +.09/gallon
  • Baltic Dry Index 1,751.0 -11.0%
  • Drewry World Container Freight Index $3,278.7/40 ft Box -7.5%
  • China (Export) Containerized Freight Index 1,342.5 +8.0%
  • Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 40.0 +45.5%
  • Truckstop.com Market Demand Index 64.1 -10.2%
  • Rail Freight Carloads 260,959 +1.0%
  • TSA Total Traveler Throughput 2,980,490 +18.5% 
  • Rasmussen Reports Daily Presidential Approval Tacking Poll 52% -1.0 percentage point
Best Performing Style
  • Mid-Cap Growth -.5%
Worst Performing Style
  • Small-Cap Value -1.5%
Leading Sectors
  • Social Media +2.8%
  • Nuclear +2.2%
  • Energy +2.0%
  • Disk Drives +1.4%
  • Banks +.9%
Lagging Sectors
  • Homebuilding -3.3%
  • Pharma -5.5%
  • Airlines -5.8%
  • Steel -8.5%
  • Electrification -8.8%
Weekly High-Volume Stock Gainers (42)
  • GRRR, BASE, GMS, CRCL, OSCR, AAOI, SMLR, ARQQ, BKSY, TSSI, GXO, ZETA, KR, LMND, LEU, PHH, NEON, QXO, CRWV, BATRK, IREN, KMX, RKLB, INOD, APG, WEN, GIII, RKT, BLD, GLXY, ASTS, URGN, COIN, HIMS, CCOI, RDFN, COOP, MDLZ, SKE and ACI
Weekly High-Volume Stock Losers (12)
  • INFY, CTSH, KSPI, GWRE, SGRY, VERX, LASR, BRZE, HSTM, KBR, ACN and MESO
ETFs
Stocks
*5-Day Change