Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (APOG)/.47

After the Close: 

• None of note

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• Personal Income for May is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.8% gain in April.
• Personal Spending for May is estimated to rise +.1% versus a +.2% gain in April.
• The Core PCE Price Index MoM for May is estimated to rise +.1% versus a +.1% gain in April. 

10:00 am EST

• Final Univ. of Mich. Consumer Sentiment readings for June.

11:00 am EST 

• The Kansas City Fed Services Activity Index for June. 

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Cook speaking, Fed's Williams speaking, Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 update, Fed bank stress test results, Bloomberg June US Economic Survey, weekly US Baker Hughes oil rig count, (AON) annual meeting and the (BOX) annual meeting could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +7.0% Above 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 15.3 -.2
• 2 Sectors Declining, 9 Sectors Rising
• 76.6% of Issues Advancing, 21.0% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms .88 -45.7%
  
• Non-Block Money Flow +$305.3M
  
• 74 New 52-Week Highs, 12 New Lows
• 45.0% (+3.5%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 61.8 +3.2

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 72.0 -.2%
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 247.3 +1.1%
  
• Morgan Stanley Growth vs Value Index 169.0 +.1%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 63.0 (GREED) +2.0
• Polymarket: Another US military action against Iran by 6/30 1.0% -3.0 percentage points 
• Polymarket: Will Iran Close the Straight of Hormuz in 2025? 20.0% +3.0 percentage points
• 1-Day Vix 8.8 -15.2%
  
• Vix 16.4 -2.1%
  
• Total Put/Call .76 -5.0%

Thursday Watch

Around X:

• @Business

• China has stepped up construction of drilling rigs and other platforms off its east coast to tap into maritime resources such as natural gas and fish, raising the ire of Japan and South Korea and fanning fresh concerns about Beijing’s regional ambitions. 
• The Treasury Department is nearing a deal with countries that impose taxes on US firms that would make the so-called "revenge tax" irrelevant, the agency’s second-in-command says. 
• Here’s the latest news and analysis on the oil market. 
• The Defense Department’s proposed $961 billion budget for the fiscal year beginning Oct. 1 includes funding to purchase 24 F-35 fighters, 21 new model F-15 jets and two Virginia-class submarines.
• Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told US lawmakers he’s extending the latest period for deploying special accounting measures to keep within the debt limit through July 24, 2025. 
• US ranchers are moving to expand their herds from a seven-decade low, paving the way for a long-awaited recovery in beef supplies, according to top producer JBS. 
• Global natural gas demand returned to growth last year and hit a fresh record, serving as a wake-up call for the renewables expansion. 
• Deputy Treasury Secretary Michael Faulkender said the expectation is that, following negotiations with US trading partners, tariffs won’t go back as high as the reciprocal levies that President Donald Trump announced on April 2.
• Nvidia shares hit an all-time high today. Learn which stock it eclipsed to become the world's largest on the latest Stock Movers report. 
• Micron, the largest US maker of computer memory chips, gave an upbeat forecast for the current quarter, helped by demand for artificial intelligence equipment. 
• Shares of companies linked to New York City real estate fell Wednesday as Zohran Mamdani, a state Assembly member who has vowed to freeze rents, looks all but certain to become the Democratic nominee for mayor. 
• The Fed unveiled plans to roll back an important capital rule that big banks have complained limits their ability to hold more Treasuries and act as intermediaries in the $29 trillion market: Here’s your Evening Briefing. 
• Get up to speed on what's moving global markets.
• Here's what you need to know to start your day. 

• @ZeroHedge 

• California Risks Federal Actions Over Transgender Athletes On Women's Sports.
• Iran Confirms Death Of 'War-Time Chief Of Staff' After Israeli Attacks.
• Hegseth Readies Presser For "Dignity of Great American Pilots" As FBI Probes Iran Strike Intel Leak.  
• The Persistent Presence Of Absence. 
• Israel & The CIA Agree With Trump On 'Destruction' Of Iran's Nuclear Capability.
• Google Searches For "Communist Control Act 1954" Soar After Zohran Mamdani's NYC Primary Victory.
• JUST IN - CIA says Iran's nuclear program has been severely damaged by the recent U.S. strikes.  
• Trump's Disbanding Of A Secret "Deep State" Working Group Raises Hopes Of Peace With Russia.
• Crypto & MegaCaps Rise As Dismal Data Drags Rate-Cut Odds Higher. 

• @TheTranscript 

• $MU CEO on Data Centers: "Data center revenue more than doubled year-over-year and reached a quarterly record, and consumer-oriented end markets had strong sequential growth".
• Micron CEO: "We are on track to deliver record revenue with solid profitability and FCF in fiscal 2025..." $MU: +4% AH.

• @amuse 

• IRAN WAR: IAEA is reporting that Trump's strike on Iran's nuclear weapons facilities were more devastating that first appeared. The report refutes a leak from a disgruntled deep state leaker to CNN that the strikes failed. The IAEA confirms the enrichment areas and storage rooms were destroyed.

• @kylenabecker

• It's clear what the radical Democrats' plan is: Destroy the nation's major cities and you destroy America. They are getting dangerously close to succeeding. (pic)
  Quote

• @disclosetv

• NEW - German police today raided the homes of 170 citizens for allegedly spreading "hate" or insulting politicians on the Internet.

• @EYakoby

• The financial capital of the world just nominated a guy who proudly says, “Capitalism is theft.” Let that sink in.

• @IanJaeger29

• BREAKING: Republicans in New York are calling on President Trump to invoke the Communist Control Act of 1954 in an effort to prevent Zohran Mamdani from becoming Mayor.

• @FBIDirectorKash

• Former FBI leadership withheld the facts and misled the public on China’s 2020 election interference. And they did so for political gain. This FBI is exposing all of it and giving Americans the truth they deserve.

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.5% to +.5% on average. 
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 76.5 +1.0 basis point. 
• China Sovereign CDS 51.25 +1.5 basis points.
• China Iron Ore Spot 92.6 USD/Metric Tonne -.15%.
• Polymarket: Another US military action against Iran by 6/30 2.0% -5.0 percentage points
• Polymarket: Will Iran Close the Straight of Hormuz in 2025? 17.0% +1.0 percentage point
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.91 +.02%.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.07 +.06%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 72.32 +.26%.
• US 10-Year Yield 4.27% -2.0 basis points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 19.1 +.43%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.02%. 
• S&P 500 futures unch. 
• NASDAQ 100 futures +.05%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by industrial and financial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Slightly Higher into Final Hour on Israel-Iran Ceasefire Holding, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Technical Buying, Tech/Defense Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Declining

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Underperforming

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 17.3 -1.3%
• S&P 500 Intraday % Swing .32 -38.0%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 72.6 +1.2% 
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.91 +.15%

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 190.41 +.58%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 7.99 -.37%

• CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 18.54 -2.1% 

• ISE Sentiment Index 186.0 +44.0

• Total Put/Call .76 -13.6%

• NYSE Arms 1.12 -18.3%
• NYSE Non-Block Money Flow -$58.4M 
  

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 53.2 +.7%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 391.0 -.47%
• Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 207.0 +1.0

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 60.6 +.2%
  
• Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 134.8 -.4%
  

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 92.0 unch.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 76.37 +1.8%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 162.0 +1.4%
• Israel Sovereign CDS 94.7 +.8%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.0 -.03%

• 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -21.75 basis points +1.75 basis points

• 3M T-Bill Treasury Repo Spread .75 basis point +.75 basis point

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap .25 +1.5 basis points
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 150.0 unch.
• Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 598.0 unch.
• Avg. Auto ABS OAS 57.0 +1.0 basis  point

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 37.1 -.1%
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.30% +1.0 basis point
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.29% +2.0 basis points

• China Iron Ore Spot 92.7 USD/Metric Tonne -.1%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 35.4 euros/megawatt-hour -.6%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index -26.0 -1.4 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 29.2 +2.1 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 29.2 -.3 point
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(13 of 500 reporting) +3.3% -.8 percentage point
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 279.85 +.14:  Growth Rate +10.0% unch., P/E 21.8 unch.
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.26% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 444.34 +.61: Growth Rate +19.0% +.2 percentage point, P/E 32.7 +.3
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .43 +10.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.18 +12.0.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 4.3 -.5
• US Yield Curve 50.75 basis points (2s/10s) +3.0 basis points
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +3.4% unch.
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 44.3% +3.0 percentage points

• Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.58% unch.: CPI YoY +2.64% unch.
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.52 -1.0 basis point
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.30 +1.0 basis point
• Highest target rate probability for Sept. 17th FOMC meeting: 67.1% (-2.9 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. Highest target rate probability for Oct. 29th meeting: 50.5%(+.1 percentage point) chance of 3.75%-4.0%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
  

Polymarket:

• US-EU Trade Agreement by July 9th 37.0% +2.0 percentage points 
• Reconciliation Bill Passed by July 31st 85.0% +7.0 percentage points

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +53 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -21 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +110 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my financial/tech sector longs and index hedges
• Disclosed Trades: None
• Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth -.8%
  

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Homebuilding -1.8% 2) Airlines -1.7% 3) Oil Service -1.6%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• BWIN, GSRT, GIS, RTAC, FLG, CCCM, SLG, AMR, VNO, ASTS, QXO, TOST, CHA, PAYX, WGO, SRPT, MBAV, LZMH and SITM

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) QS 2) BHF 3) TIGR 4) FDX 5) BB

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) CURV 2) ALLT 3) CRWS 4) SRPT 5) SLG

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) IGV 2) XLE 3) GDX 4) XLY 5) XLI

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth +.4%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Networking +1.6% 2) Defense +1.3% 3) Computer Hardware +1.1%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• NKTR, LIMN, AVAV, YSG, AAOI, ADPT, VSAT, SYM, KEP, LNW, MIR, FUTU, MBX, COHR, CLSK, SBET, CLS, TTMI, IREN, CDTX, KTOS, SII, TEN, NVDA, VICR, SEDG, ARQQ, FCFS, AMD, EH, KMT, OI, TBBB, JHX

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) TIGR 2) CHYM 3) CONY 4) QS 5) SKX

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) AVAV 2) QS 3) BMBL 4) NKTR 5) MIR

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) SMH 2) ARKK 3) XBI 4) KBWB 5) XHB

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume