Tuesday, August 12, 2025

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

  • Large-Cap Value +1.1%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Computer Services -.7% 2) Education -.5% 3) Insurance -.1%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • PSIX, HROW, DUOL, PONY, GIL, SAP, SKYT, CAH, LENZ, HNRG, ETOR, SMMT, CE, TATT and ACVA
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) AI 2) SYF 3) OHI 4) FBTC 5) WEN
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) EK 2) BBAI 3) PUBM 4) FLNC 5) BWEN
Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:
  • 1) XLC 2) SMH 3) VOX 4) IGV 5) XLY

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

  • Small-Cap Value +2.5%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Airlines +8.3% 2) Semis +2.7% 3) Regional Banks +2.5%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • GDOT, ARCT, TNXP, LTBR, MRCY, USAR, ICHR, CRNC, SBGI, HI, REZI, ALGT, AAOI, SONO, LQDA, CLDX, LIF, ASTS, SNCY, AAL, CRMD, UAL, AAON, DAL, AMPH, RH, BE, PSKY, VREX, ON, PGY, AMN, GRDN, RKT, MCHP, AEIS, ALAB, TNDM, MBC, VSH, PDFS, SHEN, ETSY, RPD, AMR, ARLO, LPX, IIPR, CDRE, ARLO, OFIX, IIPR, DFIN, METC, ELF, FTNT, BLFS, MIDD, THS, SLVM, ACHR, THS, OKLO, FORM, ECPG, TXN, CVLT, SSYS, INSM, FOUR, POWI, RIGL, LITE, FND, GPCR, THO, ACAD, PANW, ACIW, GFS, DAN, MRTN, CWAN, BMNR, PATK, MDB, AEVA, SPHR, CBU, RDNT, ASPI, WLDN, TEM, META, LRCX, SAIL, GS, BRDG, INOD, FUN, TWLO, COHR, WT, ISSC, BG, LNW, ESAB, INTA, INTC, FUL, MELI and PAR
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) EQX 2) CIVI 3) HBI 4) OLN 5) ALTS
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) MRCY 2) TLS 3) ARCT 4) HBI 5) SE
Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:
  • 1) ARKK 2) XLI 3) KRE 4) XLU 5) XLF
Charts:

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:
  • (EAT)/2.47
  • (PFGC)/1.46
  • (SSYS)/.03 
  • (CRMT)/.83
  • (BBWI)/.38 
After the Close: 
  • (CSCO)/.98
  • (COHR)/.92 
Economic Releases 

10:30 am EST

  • Bloomberg consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory decline of -1,062,000 barrels versus a -3,029,000 barrel decline the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to fall by -648,200 barrels versus a -1,323,000 barrel decline the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to rise by +454,600 barrels versus a -565,000 barrel decline the prior week. Finally, Refinery Utilization is estimated to fall -.24% versus a +1.5% gain prior.

Upcoming Splits

  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Bostic speaking, Fed's Goolsbee speaking, weekly MBA Mortgage Applications, (MELI) investor meeting with Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan Hardware/Semis Access Forum, Needham FinTech & Digital Transformation Conference report and the Oppenheimer Tech/Internet/Communications Virtual Conference could also impact global trading tomorrow.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • Volume Running +11.3% Above 100-Day Average 
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 13.8 -3.2
  • 1 Sector Declining, 10 Sectors Rising
  • 74.4% of Issues Advancing, 23.2% Declining 
  • TRIN/Arms 1.26 -.79% 
  • Non-Block Money Flow +$305.2M
  • 95 New 52-Week Highs, 18 New Lows
  • 50.7% (+5.2%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 55.7 +1.0
Other:
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 78.4% +3.0%
  • Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 248.2 +.9%
  • Morgan Stanley Growth vs Value Index 164.9 -1.4%
  • CNN Fear & Greed Index 63.0 (GREED) +6.0
  • 1-Day Vix 8.4 -47.5%
  • Vix 15.0 -7.5%
  • Total Put/Call .93 +12.0%

Monday, August 11, 2025

Tuesday Watch

 Night Trading 

  • Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.75% on average. 
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 68.75 -1.0 basis point.
  • China Sovereign CDS 44.75 +.25 basis point.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 103.8 USD/Metric Tonne +.29%. 
  • Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.86 +.03%.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.6 -.1%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 76.7 +.8%.
  • US 10-Year Yield 4.28% unch.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 19.32 +.12%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.28%. 
  • S&P 500 futures +.07%. 
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.08%.
Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by industrial and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Friday, August 01, 2025

Monday's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:
  • (BNTX)/-2.28
  • (CNA)/.97
  • (ENR)/.62
  • (IDXX)/3.30
  • (ON)/.53
  • (TSSEM)/.45
  • (RIG)/-.01
  • (WAT)/2.94
  • (W)/.33 
After the Close: 
  • (ADTN)/.01
  • (ANDE)/.51
  • (AXON)/1.45
  • (FANG)/2.77
  • (EHC)/1.21
  • (EQR)/.98
  • (HIMS)/.15
  • (IAC)/-.33
  • (LSCC)/.24
  • (MELI)/11.93
  • (ODD)/.84
  • (PLTR)/.14 
  • (SPG)/3.05
  • (TDWE)/.52
  • (VNO)/.53
  • (WMB)/.48 
Economic Releases 

10:00 am EST

  • Factory Orders for June is estimated to fall -5.0% versus a +8.2% gain in May. 
  • Factory Orders Ex Transports for June is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.2% gain in May.
  • Final Durable Goods Orders readings for June. 

Upcoming Splits

  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The CB Employment Trends Index for July, Loan Officer Survey, (EXP) annual meeting and the (SPB) annual meeting could also impact global trading on Monday.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST