Sunday, December 14, 2025

Monday Watch

Around X:

  • @Business   
  • @Zerohedge
  • @CNBC
  • @WSJ.com
  • @Barron's 
  • Had bullish commentary on (CALM) and (CB).
  • @MarioNawful
  • @ShadowofEzra
  • @ProjectConstitu 
  • @JimFergusonUK
  • @annvandersteel
  • @Kagan_M_Dunlap
  • @DiligentDenizen
  • @CollinRugg
  • @Mirandadevine
  • @LaraLogan
  • @EricSpracklen
  • @RenzTom
  • @EricLDaugh
  • BREAKING: President Trump is now saying “TRUCKLOADS” of evidence will be coming out proving the 2020 election was rigged. “We have all the ammunition, all the stuff, and you'll see it come out. It's coming out in truckloads.” Trump’s DOJ is also now suing FULTON COUNTY, GA over 2020 records. “California more than any other place is so rigged. It's such a rigged election — If the vote in California was legitimate, which it's not, they have 38 million ballots. Everything is mail-in voting.” If there’s NOTHING TO HIDE, it should ALL be released. (video)
  • @ScottJenningsKY
  • After the shooter was disarmed, the hero let him walk away. The shooter then went and picked up another gun and kept shooting until police finally shot him. The West is under attack. Wake up.
  • @KobeissiLetter
  • @GlockfordFiles
  • @WallStreetMav
  • @TRobinsonNewEra
  • @RealDonKeith
  • @MarinaMedvin
  • @MichelleMaxwell
  • @BoLoudon
Night Trading
  • Asian indices are -1.25% to -.5% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 64.75 +.25 basis point.
  • China Sovereign CDS 43.0 +.25 basis point.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 100.8 USD/Metric Tonne -1.2%.
  • Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.86 +.2% 
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.14 -.01%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 95.64 -.3%.
  • US 10-Year Yield 4.18% unch. 
  • Japan 30-Year Yield 3.37% +1.0 basis point. 
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 18.6 +.1%. 
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.38%.
  • S&P 500 futures +.22%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.20%.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are modestly lower, weighed down by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 25% net long heading into the week.

Friday, December 12, 2025

Evening Headlines

Around X:

  • @Business 
  • @Zerohedge 
  • @WSJ
  • @CNBC  
  • @TheSCIF
  • @EmeraldRobinson
  • @RenzTom
  • @Real_RobN
  • @Rasmussen_Poll
  • @OcrazioCornPop
  • @WallStreetApes
  • @ImBreckWorsham
  • @C_3C_3
  • @ScottJenningsKY
  • @amuse
  • INDIANA REDISTRICTING: Bruesewitz says 21 Indiana Republicans killed a clean redistricting map after promises of cash from the Senate President Rodric Bray and GOP consultants. Democrats win, Trump gets stabbed in the back. Indiana’s mid decade redistricting reform was all but finished: Supreme Court precedent allowed it, the map was clean, and the State House passed it. Then 21 Senate Republicans flipped after consultant Cam Savage of Limestone Strategies allegedly promised campaign funding through Senate President Rodric Bray. Their betrayal delivered a massive victory to Democrats and blocked a map that would have saved control of the House in 2026. Since I know you'll ask, here are the 21 Republican Indiana state senators who voted against the redistricting bill (HB 1032): Eric Bassler (R-Washington), Vaneta Becker (R-Evansville), Mike Bohacek (R-Michiana Shores), Rodric Bray (R-Martinsville), Brian Buchanan (R-Lebanon), Jim Buck (R-Kokomo), Ed Charbonneau (R-Valparaiso), Brett Clark (R-Avon), Mike Crider (R-Greenfield), Spencer Deery (R-West Lafayette), Dan Dernulc (R-Highland), Blake Doriot (R-Goshen), Sue Glick (R-LaGrange), Greg Goode (R-Terre Haute), Travis Holdman (R-Markle), Jean Leising (R-Oldenburg), Ryan Mishler (R-Mishawaka), Rick Niemeyer (R-Lowell), Linda Rogers (R-Granger), Kyle Walker (R-Lawrence), Greg Walker (R-Columbus).
  • @JuanOSavin107
  • @EricLDaugh
  • @JoshHall2024
  • @TonySeruga
  • @KobeissiLetter
OpenVAERS:  
SKirsch.com:

Stocks Falling into Final Hour on AI Infrastructure Buildout Worries, Higher Long-Term Rates, Technical Selling, Tech/Alt Energy Sector Weakness

Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.14 -.12%
  • US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.19% +4.0 basis points
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 3.61% -4.0 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 100.8 USD/Metric Tonne -1.2%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 27.7 euros/megawatt-hour +3.3%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 16.3 -9.3 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 31.3 -.2 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 34.2 +1.6 points
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(2 of 500 reporting) +41.3% unch.
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 307.40 -.04:  Growth Rate +14.2% unch., P/E 22.2 -.2
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.74% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) +n/a +n/a
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 511.43 +.14: Growth Rate +24.6% unch., P/E 31.6 -.6
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .77 +5.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.41 +5.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 1.7 -.2
  • US Yield Curve 66.0 basis points (2s/10s) +5.0 basis points
  • US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +3.6% +10.0 basis points
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 27.5% -.9 percentage point
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.76% unch.: CPI YoY +2.96% unch.
  • 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.42 unch.
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.28 unch.
  • Highest target rate probability for March 18th FOMC meeting: 49.0% (-3.0 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for April 29th meeting: 43.9%(+1.1 percentage points) chance of 3.25%-3.5%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -650 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -82 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +55 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Lower: On losses in my consumer financial/tech/industrial sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and to my emerging market shorts
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 25% Net Long

Monday's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:
  • None of note
After the Close: 
  • None of note
Economic Release 
8:30 am EST
  • Empire Manufacturing for Dec. is estimated to fall to 9.5 versus 18.7 in Nov.
10:00 am EST
  • The NAHB Housing Market Index for Dec. is estimated to rise to 39.0 versus 38.0 in Nov.

Upcoming Splits

  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Miran speaking, Fed's Williams speaking and the Northland Virtual Growth Conference could also impact global trading on Monday.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST