Tuesday, December 16, 2025

Wednesday Watch

Around X:

  • @Business  
  • @ZeroHedge
  • @CNBC
  • @RenzTom
  • All of MAGA most certainly does not love Susie. Susie was a managing partner at Mercury - a lobbying firm that represented Pfizer, GAVI, Gilead, Alibaba, and many other bad actors. She’s a Bush loyalist and controls the administration with an iron fist (Trump called her the most powerful woman in the world). Did you notice every single person in the administration had to pay something demonstrating their loyalty to her today after the interview where they literally quoted her (and this wasn’t the first interview where she ripped Trump). It wasn’t hit piece - it was her words. I’m MAGA. I’m MAHA. And I’m praying I’m wrong but everything I hear about her out of Washington is bad. Ask yourself why Bondi (a Susie pushed to be AG) and so many others won’t do anything to support Trump?
  • @EmeraldRobinson
  • @lsferguson
  • @RWMaloneMD
  • @BGatesIsaPsycho
  • @JamesOKeefeIII
  • @EricLDaugh
  • BOOM! JD VANCE: I have seen so many people who will say one thing to the president and then will do the exact opposite! AUDIENCE MEMBER: They are TRAITORS! VANCE: They ARE. (video)
  • BREAKING: President Trump confirms the Senate GOP is STILL letting Democrats block his U.S. attorneys and judges through the "blue slip" tradition. "I am UNABLE to put anybody in office having to do with U.S. attorneys, or judges. If you have ONE Democrat senator in a state, it's not possible to appoint because of blue slips." "Blue slips are a DISGRACE. They should not be relevant anymore! This is a different world from 15-20 years ago!" He's right. FIX IT, SEN. GRASSLEY AND THUNE! (video)
  • @RealHickory
  • @rawsalerts
  • @seanmdav
  • @Barnes_law
  • In her own words @SusieWiles confirmed long-held suspicions of her hostility to #MAGA principles, including her opposition to pardoning all J6ers, her opposition to taking apart USAID, her belief EpsteinFiles are no big deal & her dislike of deportation raids. Susie is the swamp.
  • @JoshHall2024
  • @mattvanswol
Night Trading 
  • Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.5% on average. 
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 65.5 +.25 basis point.
  • China Sovereign CDS 43.0 +.25 basis point.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 103.4 USD/Metric Tonne +.8%. 
  • Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.85 +.04%.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.11 -.06%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 93.6 +.2%.
  • US 10-Year Yield 4.16% +2.0 basis points.
  • Japan 30-Year Yield 3.35% unch. 
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 18.5 -.1%.
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.05%. 
  • S&P 500 futures -.01%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.05%.
Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and consumer discretionary shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Slightly Lower into Final Hour on US Economic Data, Quad Witching Positioning, Technical Selling, Energy/Healthcare Sector Weakness

Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.1 -.04%
  • US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.15% -3.0 basis points
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 3.61% -1.0 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 103.1 USD/Metric Tonne +.5%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 26.7 euros/megawatt-hour -2.4%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 8.0 -3.0 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 32.4 +1.6 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 30.9 -.3 point
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(2 of 500 reporting) +41.3% unch.
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 307.32 +.21:  Growth Rate +14.2% +.1 percentage point, P/E 22.1 -.1
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.49% unch.
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) +n/a +n/a
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 516.63 +.68: Growth Rate +25.7% +.1 percentage point, P/E 30.6 -.1
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .68 -4.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.41 +6.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 1.5 unch.
  • US Yield Curve 66.75 basis points (2s/10s) -.5 basis point
  • US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +3.5% -10.0 basis points
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 28.1% +.8 percentage point
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.76% unch.: CPI YoY +2.96% unch.
  • 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.26 -12.0 basis points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.23 -3.0 basis points
  • Highest target rate probability for March 18th FOMC meeting: 46.0% (-3.0 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for April 29th meeting: 44.8%(+.8 percentage point) chance of 3.25%-3.5%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +475 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -9 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +175 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my tech sector longs, index hedges and emerging market shorts
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

  • Mid-Cap Value -1.0%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Oil Service -4.2% 2) Energy -3.2% 3) Healthcare Providers -1.9%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • XEL, ELP, MUFG, INSP, BP, HLIO, NKTR, MOS, ABVX, PFE, CPNG, KYTX, RDNT, CORT, BAH, AXTI, VITL, DXYZ and NAVN
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) EQNR 2) XOP 3) CARR 4) WGMI 5) RILY
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) IRBT 2) NAVN 3) VITL 4) CRWV 5) STUB
Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:
  • 1) XLE 2) XLV 3) FXR 4) XLF 5) ARKK

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

  • Large-Cap Growth -.2%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Education +2.0% 2) Software +.4% 3) Computer Hardware +.32%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • VOR, GLUE, AFRM, SEZL, CRCL, PVLA, CLPT, UPB, NTSK, MIRM, UBS, CGNX, RH, CMCSA, IMNM, STAA, JMIA, ZG, SLDE, EL, GLIBK and KMTS
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) ECH 2) MGNI 3) GGAL 4) ALDX 5) PZZA 
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) RILY 2) TLRY 3) RZLV 4) AFRM 5) GLUE
Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:
  • 1) MISL 2) XBI 3) SOXX 4) XLP 5) VGT
Charts:

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:
  • (ABM)/1.09
  • (GIS)/1.03
  • (JBL)/2.70
  • (TTC)/.87 
  • (WS)/.39 
After the Close: 
  • (MU)/3.96
  • (MLKN)/.41 
Economic Release 

10:00 am EST

  • Business Inventories MoM for Sept.
  • Retail Inventories Ex Autos MoM for Sept. 

10:30 am EST

  • Bloomberg Consensus estimates call for a weekly crude oil inventory decline of -2,426,170 barrels versus a -1,812,000 barrel decline the prior week. Gasoline supplies are estimated to rise by +1,427,170 barrels versus a +6,397,000 barrel gain the prior week. Distillate inventories are estimated to fall by -439,000 barrels versus a +2,502,000 barrel gain the prior week.

Upcoming Splits

  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Bostic speaking, Fed's Williams, Fed's Waller speaking, 20Y T-Note auction, weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report and the (AZO) annual meeting could also impact global trading tomorrow.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • Volume Running -13.8% Below 100-Day Average 
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 12.2 -1.1
  • 9 Sectors Declining, 2 Sectors Rising
  • 37.7% of Issues Advancing, 59.7% Declining 
  • TRIN/Arms 1.07 -7.8%
  • Non-Block Money Flow -$26.9M
  • 50 New 52-Week Highs, 33 New Lows
  • 63.1% (-2.2%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 56.4 -3.9
Polymarket:
  • Supreme Court Rules in Favor of Trump's Tariffs? 28.0% +1.0 percentage point
  • Will there be another US government shutdown by January 31st? 34.0% +1.0 percentage point
  • Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? 13.0% -1.0 percentage point
  • US-Venezuela military engagement by Jan. 31st 33.0% +2.0 percentage points
Other:
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 93.1 -1.4%
  • US High-Yield Tech Sector OAS Index 439.75 +8.5 basis points
  • Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 262.9 unch.
  • Morgan Stanley Growth vs Value Index 157.9 +.6%
  • CNN Fear & Greed Index 46.0 (Moved to NEUTRAL from FEAR) +3.0
  • 1-Day Vix 10.8 -16.3%
  • Vix 16.9 +2.3%
  • Total Put/Call .87 -1.1%