Stocks Surging into Final Hour on Mideast War Resolution Hopes, Calming Inflation Worries, Earnings Outlook Optimism, Tech/Alt Energy Sector Strength

Economic/Market Gauges:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 49.8 -1.4%
• BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 70.6 -1.5% 
• Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .24 -1.0 basis point
• BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator -.23 -8.0 basis points
• European Financial Sector CDS Index 53.8 -2.0%
• Emerging Market CDS Index 139.6 -3.8%
• Israel Sovereign CDS 48.4 -1.1% 
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index .4 -.3
• US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 88.1 -1.2

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 52.0 -3.4

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -37.5 +5.7

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 43.6 -1.1
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(498 of 500 reporting) +27.9% unch.
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 364.79 +.68:  Growth Rate +24.0% +.2 percentage point, P/E 20.8 +.7
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 15.50% +2.0 basis points
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(10 of 10 reporting) +66.6% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 912.83 +4.60: Growth Rate +76.0% +.9 percentage point, P/E 19.3 +1.0 
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.08 +18.0 basis points
• US Yield Curve 39.75 basis points (2s/10s) unch.
• Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 181.3 -.7%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 42.50 euros/megawatt-hour -9.2%
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 14.8% +1.3 percentage points
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 Forecast +3.3% unch.
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.46% -2.0 basis points
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.17 -11.0 basis points

• Highest target rate probability for July 29th FOMC meeting: 92.4% (+3.1 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for Sept. 16th meeting: 71.7%(+.2 percentage point) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +520 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -78 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -25 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my tech/industrial/biotech/energy sector longs
• Disclosed Trades: None
• Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Small-Cap Value +.1%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Energy -3.4% 2) Oil Service -2.7% 3) Computer Services -2.0%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• SBGI, OTF, TFII, TOYO, MEC, SBAC, DXYZ, TFC, VOR, LDOS, AA, ELVN, WDS, MH, PTRN, TBN, FISV, PRCT, CENX, VCX, LRN, BAND and FOX

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) KLAC 2) FRO 3) AR 4) TRIP 5) VSH

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) FOXA 2) LRN 3) BAND 4) FISV 5) TFC

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) AGIX 2) KWEB 3) IXJ 4) XLP 5) IDU

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth +2.3%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) AI Innovation +6.3% 2) Semis +5.7% 3) Gold & Silver +5.7%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• WYFI, BRUN, XNDU, POET, WOLF, MRAM, ASST, WDC, QUBT, OUST, AAOI, QBTS, RVI, NTLA, CMCO, SHAZ, INFQ, HYMC, VECO, DASH, SMR, SEZL, RGTI, MRVL, AUGO, ENTG, AEVA, MBX, ESAB, AYA, EGO, ARM, TXG, IDR, VSH, TEM, ASTS, GENB, CAAP, AFRM, TLN, BMNR, UEC, GFI, SVM, BLSH, DAVE, UPST, RKT, GRND, HL, UPST, STEP, CHRN, STX, KEP, AU, RKLB, XYZ, EMBJ, WPM, SKE, CVNA, BIOA, AGI, VPG, PAAS, EQX, FNV, ROAD, BHVN, AIP, UBER, AEM, CEVA, TRIP, MUX, PLAB, OGC, COF, BA, LTM, ALOY, ONTO, SW, BKNG, MMYT, AEIS, IE, KRUS, RACE, UAL, APP, TFPM, CHDN, HON, SNEX, VMET, ERO, GEV, PSUS, CTGO, AMAT, ABVX, DB, AMKR, CHEF, ROG, AAL, APPS and EVTC

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) FEZ 2) IP 3) GT 4) KLAC 5) NNDM 

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) WDC 2) MU 3) OUST 4) DASH 5) MRVL

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) ARKK 2) SOXX 3) NASA 4) XLF 5) IYM

Charts: 

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (WLY)/1.65

After the Close: 

• (LZB)/.82

Economic Releases 

8:30 am EST

• The Import Price Index MoM for May is estimated to rise +.9% versus a +1.9% gain in April.
• The Import Price Index Ex Petrol MoM for May is estimated to rise +.5% versus a +.7% gain in April.
• The Export Price Index MoM for May is estimated to rise +.6% versus a +3.3% gain in April.
• NY Fed Services Business Activity Index for June.
• Housing Starts for May is estimated to fall to 1430K versus 1465K in April.
• Building Permits for May is estimated to fall to 1419K versus 1423K in April. 

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q2 update, 20Y T-Note auction, weekly ADP employment change report, weekly US retail sales reports, API weekly crude oil stock report, AWS summit, (FIVE) annual meeting, (MA) annual meeting, (VMI) investor day, (TDW) annual meeting, (DLTR) annual meeting, (PENN) annual meeting, (WDAY) annual meeting, (IONQ) annual meeting, (TWLO) annual meeting, (LQDA) annual meeting, (XYZ) annual meeting, (COIN) annual meeting and the TD Cowen Disruptive Tech Summit could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Afternoon Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +2.9% Above 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 15.1 +1.2
• 7 Sectors Rising, 4 Sectors Declining
• 63.4% of Issues Advancing, 34.9% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms 1.10 +10.0%
• Non-Block Money Flow +$169.9M
  
• 145 New 52-Week Highs, 23 New Lows
• 57.6% (+2.8%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 62.3 +1.6

Polymarket: 

• Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? 6.0% unch.
• US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30th 98.0% +82.0 percentage points 
• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15th 50.0% +5.0 percentage points 
• Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by July 31st 47.0% +10.0%
• Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31st 15.0% +3.0 percentage points 
• US Invades Iran before 2027 13.0% -13.0 percentage points

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 123.0 +1.7%
• Global Monitor Iran Instability Index 68.0 +2.0
• Strait of Hormuz Oil Tanker Traffic Curtailed Estimate 95.0% -1.0 percentage point
• US High-Yield Tech Sector OAS Index 436.5 -8.75 basis points
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 259.6 +1.3%
• Morgan Stanley Growth vs Value Index 161.8 +4.2%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 42.0 (FEAR) +8.0
• 1-Day Vix 10.4 -45.9%
• Vix 16.0 -9.4%
  
• Total Put/Call .85 +11.8%

Monday Watch

Around X:

• @Business   

• The US and Iran say they have reached a deal to halt more than three months of war. Follow the latest news and analysis. 
• Iran’s Deputy Foreign Minister Gharibabadi confirms the country reached a peace deal with the US. 
• A joint statement from the leaders of the UK, France, Germany and Italy says they “are prepared to lift relevant sanctions in response to clear, verifiable steps by Iran on its nuclear programme”. 
• Grain futures declined in Chicago as a potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz could improve access to vital crop inputs, helping to ease the threats to food inflation brought on by the months-long war.
• After SpaceX and its bankers pulled off the largest-ever IPO without a hitch last week, investors are returning their focus back to Earth.
• Xi Jinping is shifting tactics in his campaign to pressure Taiwan by swapping fighter jets for ramped up diplomatic isolation. 
• Here’s the latest news and analysis on the oil market.
• Get up to speed on what's moving global markets.
• Here’s what you need to know to start your day.    

• @Zerohedge 

• Trump Says Hormuz To Reopen Friday After Signing Of "Great Peace Deal" With Iran. 
• Odds of a permanent US-Iran peace deal by June 15 surge on Polymarket from 50% to 87%, and from 80% to 96% by Dec 31 (just mind the fine print). 
• "Let The Oil Flow": Trump Declares Iran Peace Deal Complete As Pakistan PM Confirms Signing Ceremony Next Friday. 
• An LNG tanker appears to be heading to the Strait of Hormuz, just as the US and Iran say they have reached a deal to reopen the waterway. The Disha (which is chartered by India) has been stuck in the Persian Gulf for >3 months. The tanker is carrying a cargo from Qatar. 
• Space: The Now Frontier And The AI Revolution. 
• Mojtaba Khamenei’s brother-in-law. Backs the deal, says those Iranian hardliners who oppose it are doing netanyahu’s work. 
• Gonorrhea Rate Are Soaring In NYC: Mamdani Rushes Free Chocolate Condoms To Citizens Of Big Apple! 
• Despite all the headlines, YTD performance across the private markets fund is actually above the benchmarks. Bears of course argue defaults are still ahead.  
• Fear Of The Signal: Why The State Urgently Wants To Bind Prediction Markets. 
• *TRUMP SAYS MOU SUSPENDS TOLLS IN THE STRAIT FOR 60 DAYS: NYT.
• Mehr News has released a short version of the 14-clauses of the MoU that will be signed on Friday, between Iran & US. 1. The permanent and immediate halt of war on all fronts, including Lebanon. 2. A U.S. commitment not to interfere in Iran’s internal affairs and to respect the sovereignty of the Islamic Republic of Iran. 3. The complete lifting of the naval blockade within 30 days. 4. A U.S. commitment to withdraw its forces from the areas surrounding Iran. 5. The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz within 30 days under Iranian “arrangements”...
• Reporter with Israeli news outlet Maariv: "According to Israeli sources, in a conversation with Trump, Netanyahu clarified that Israel does not consider itself bound by the Lebanese clause in the American-Iranian agreement. Netanyahu told the American president that the IDF will not withdraw from Lebanon, will remain in the positions it currently holds, and will continue to act to thwart the threat from Hezbollah". 
• Trump Says New Israeli Attack On Beirut "Should Not Have Happened" - Also Warns Hezbollah "Let's Not Blow It". 
• Iran's President Pezeshkian via Fars News: Recent diplomatic efforts have yielded positive results. Recent developments have shown that no country cares more about Iran's interests than ourselves Even if my personal opinion differs, I consider myself obliged to follow the final decision of the system Resolution of the Supreme National Security Council is the basis of action, and whatever is approved and deemed appropriate by the Supreme Leader will be mandatory for all of us. I regret the neighboring countries being exposed to the consequences of military actions. Our operation targeted the US bases on the soil of these countries. Issues and misunderstandings with Gulf countries are being resolved Ties with Gulf region countries are on path to improvement. Talks do not mean abandoning principles. Iran won't bow to any kind of bullying or illegal pressure. Media reports on war, negotiations do not necessarily reflect Supreme National Security Council views.
• Trump: I spoke with the Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu, I told him, “What the f- are you doing?”
• America's Energy Future Is Being Decided In Obscure Utility Commission Races.
• *TRUMP SAYS ISRAEL MUST STOP ALL ATTACKS IN LEBANON.
• Iran Reveals Draft Of Trump-Touted MoU To Be Signed Sunday: $25BN Asset Unfreeze, Enriched Uranium Dilution On The Table.
• *IDF SAYS STRUCK HEZBOLLAH COMMAND CENTER IN BEIRUT. *IDF SAYS BEIRUT STRIKE FOLLOWS HEZBOLLAH LAUNCHES TOWARD ISRAEL. *BEIRUT STRIKES CREATING ISSUES WITH FINALIZING IRAN-US DEAL:FOX.
• A draft of the US-Iran memorandum of understanding included diluting highly enriched uranium within Iran and the release of $25b of Iran’s frozen assets, Reuters reports citing a senior Iran official. Final deal to be discussed in the 60 days following agreement by the two sides. Also includes Iran immediately reopening Hormuz Strait to all commercial vessels and US lifting its naval blockade. Tehran in draft agrees ⁠that will neither produce nor acquire nuclear weapons. To maintain the nuclear status quo until final deal is ⁠reached, including by not enriching uranium and not expanding nuclear facilities.
• Former UK Prime Minister Admits Mass Migration Is Being Weaponized To Undermine Western Civilization.
• The existence, history, locations and funding of these U.S. funded biolabs was intentionally covered up by powerful people falsely claiming that the labs do not exist and accusing anyone who says otherwise to be foreign assets and traitors to America. Those lies are still being propagated today by the same powerful people and their allies who wish to see this dangerous research continue with little to no oversight.
• Slide 2: A map created by ODNI using U.S. government data to show lab locations, biosafety levels at each location, the type of research being conducted, and if biological weapons were being stored.
• Here is the TRUTH: Dangerous gain-of-function research was funded by the U.S. government around the world, directed and approved by people like Dr Fauci.
  @DNIGabbard exposed that yesterday. Using U.S. government data, put together and uncovered by career subject matter experts in the Intelligence Community and other government agencies, yesterday’s release highlighted one example of the many overseas biolabs funded by the U.S., the research conducted there, and the significant risks they pose to the world, especially when located in a country at war.​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​
• Which States Are Leading America's Economy?    
• *TEENS WILL GET SOCIAL MEDIA CURFEW AND CHATBOT BAN IN UK: TIMES.
• Venezuela's crude exports just hit 1,300,000 barrels per day. The Hormuz crisis made this possible. January 2026: exports collapsed to 450 kbd as the Iran war broke out. June 2026: exports surged to 1,300 kbd nearly tripling in 6 months.
• Discs, Orbs, 'Heavenly' Phenomena, & More Revealed In 3rd Batch Of Declassified UFO Files.
• Trump Mulls Farmer Aid As Fertilizer And Fuel Costs Bite.
• Former NIH Head Secretly Helped With Paper Dismissing Theory COVID-19 Came From Lab.   

• @CNBC 

• CNBC Daily Open: For real this time? U.S., Iran peace deal at hand.  
• U.S. crude oil falls nearly 5% after Trump says U.S. and Iran complete deal to open Strait of Hormuz.
• Stock futures jump after the U.S. and Iran reach a deal to end the war: Live updates.
• One quality will be most in-demand from job-seekers in the AI era, Animoca co-founder Siu says.    

• @MarioNawful

• The Pentagon just rated Israel a critical counterintelligence threat, and Congress is voting to merge America's military and spy services with it anyway. Anthony Aguilar went to Washington to fight these bills and came back with a warning about how deep the merger runs.

• @TheSCIF

• OBAMA was involved in the CREATION of U.S. BIOLABS conducting gain-of-function research of deadly pathogens across the world, especially in Ukraine using U.S. taxpayer dollars, through agencies like USAID. After the bioweapons convention ban ended in 2001 and after the anthrax attacks, Dr. Fauci essentially restarted the bioweapons arms race under the pretension of developing vaccines. In 2014, Obama moved Fauci's gain-of-function research offshore after Obama was essentially begged to shut down operations from over 250+ scientists because of the dangerous research Dr. Fauci was conducting. President Trump was the one who shut down gain-of-function research in the U.S. and abroad. DNI Tulsi Gabbard first exposed these labs in 2022 and now the proof of 120+ biolabs in 30+ countries, with a heavy focus on Ukraine, where the U.S. built and supported over 40 labs has been released and it all goes right back to the Obama administration and Dr. Fauci.

• @WallStreetApes 

• The conspiracy theorists were right. A new FDA data mining report shows they knew the Covid vaccine had 25 major side effects and they all conspired to hide it from the public. Senator Ron Johnson’s Senate PSI Majority Staff Interim Report has been released on FDA data mining and the March 2021 analysis by Dr. Ana Szarfman. There was a “masking” in the standard FDA system, where signals from Pfizer and Moderna reportedly cancelled each other out. Meaning they lied and hid the side effects from the public and told you it was 100% safe and effective. I have compared the whole list for you:
• Mass surveillance is here. You see this black line above the steering wheel on this Lexus? It might not look like much but that’s the new Diver Monitor System. If you set your camera to the right frame rate, you can actually see the 2 red dots used to monitor and track your eyes. These invisible red dots are always watching you. This is the start of a mass surveillance state that can control your driving. (video)

• @KylieJaneKremer

• Georgia gubernatorial candidate Rick Jackson has now spent more than $107 million in the Republican primary alone trying to buy himself the Governor’s Mansion. Let that sink in. If it takes $107 million to convince Republicans you’re one of them, maybe you’re not.

• @WarClandestine

• Somebody pinch me. It’s just wild to see the MSM finally admitting that the US-funded biolabs in Ukraine were real this whole time. I’ve dedicated the last 4+ years of my life to exposing this story, and it’s finally coming to fruition. (video)
• Now that we have established that Covid was man-made, and that the US were funding gain-of-function research at biolabs around the world, including Ukraine… The question becomes, why the Biden admin cover all this up? Because Covid is how they stole the 2020 election… (video) 

• @TheInsidePaper

• JUST IN - President Trump told Axios: "Why did Bibi have to do a fucking attack? I was so pissed off. I let him know. He has no fucking judgement. I let him know that".

• @rahulbali

• BREAKING NEWS: President Donald Trump endorses Congressman Mike Collins in Tuesday's Georgia Republican primary runoff for U.S. Senate. #gapol He is running against Derek Dooley, who is backed by Governor Brian Kemp.

• @realMaalouf

• TERRIFYING: Islamic scholars in the U.S. reveal their plan: “There are not enough Muslims in America right now to demand full Sharia law and replace its secular system. We must gain political power first and implement it little by little.” (video)

• @visegrad24

• BREAKING: Thousands of Italians have taken to streets of Rome today to demand REMIGRATION. (video)

• @OCOCReport

• The Hidden Merger Between US & Israel While everyone focuses on military aid, Congress is quietly pushing something far more serious: Section 224 → Fuses US & Israeli militaries. Section 622 → Legally forces the US President to share almost all intelligence. with Israel with almost no ability to stop it. Even if the Pentagon calls Israel a "critical espionage threat", these bills would legally weld the intelligence spigot wide open. This moves the US-Israel relationship from public aid into permanent, secret integration with almost zero accountability. America’s secrets. Israel’s control.

• @pepesgrandma

• CONFIRMED: Barack Obama Was Involved in Creation of US Biolabs Handling Especially Dangerous Pathogens in Ukraine. Obama truly is an evil person. There are at least ten documents implicating Obamas Department of Defense in funding the Ukrainian Biolabs. The US Embassy even scrubbed documents from their website that shows the US Department of Defense funded the creation of a Ukrainian diagnostic biolab. They were found in archives. (pic)

• @jackunheard

• This is getting insane. Rick Jackson has some serious explaining to do. Everything about him represents the Democrat Party yet he's running as a Republican in Georgia. You can't claim to be a Conservative but. - hire criminal aliens at your mansion. - Promote DEI. - Recruit for planned parenthood. Just doesn't work.

• @MargaretHenzig

• The merger between the U.S. and Israel has a third piece almost nobody is talking about. While Section 224 fuses the militaries, Section 622 moves to fuse the intelligence services... Buried in a 192-page intelligence authorization bill from Sen.Tom Cotton, Section 622 would legally require the president to "expand and enhance intelligence sharing" with Israel across nearly every topic of intelligence interest in the Middle East. It would prohibit any reduction in that sharing except for a "specific and identifiable national security concern," then force a detailed report to Congress within 15 days justifying it. Read that mechanism again carefully. EVERY SINGLE MEMBER OF CONGRESS, no matter if they’re Republican or Democrat, needs to be charged with ESPIONAGE if they support &/or approve of this “merger”.

Night Trading

• Asian indices are +1.5% to +3.5% on average.
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 69.25 -2.5 basis points.
• China Sovereign CDS 39.25 -.25 basis point.
• China Iron Ore Spot 101.70 USD/Metric Tonne +.3%.
• Crude Oil 80.84/bbl. -4.7%
• Gold 4,338.0 USD/t oz. +2.4%. 
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.50 -.16%. 
  
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 35.19 +.1%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 121.96 +1.0%.
• US 10-Year Yield 4.43% -5.0 basis points. 
• Japan 30-Year Yield 3.77% -3.0 basis points. 
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 19.1 -2.7%. 
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +1.73%.
• S&P 500 futures +1.06%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures +1.75%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are sharply higher, boosted by consumer discretionary and technology shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open higher and to maintain gains into the afternoon. The Portfolio is 100% Net Long heading into the week.