Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (KMX)/.73
• (CCL)/1.35 

After the Close: 

• (AIR)/1.29
• (CNXC)/2.71
• (FDXF)/1.39 

Economic Releases 

9:00 am EST

• The FHFA House Price Index MoM for July is estimated to rise +.1% versus unch. in June.
• The S&P Cotality CS 20-City MoM SA for July is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +.24% gain in June. 

10:00 am EST

• The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index for Sept. is estimated to fall to 89.1 versus 89.4 in Aug.
• JOLTS Job Openings for Aug. is estimated fall to 7228K versus 7271K in July. 
• 10:30 am EST
• The Dallas Fed Services Activity for Sept. is estimated to fall to 1.6 versus 4.2 in Aug. 

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Waller speaking, Fed's Williams speaking, Fed's Goolsbee speaking, Fed's Barr speaking, Fed's Bowman speaking, US retail sales reports, RBC Capital Communications Infrastructure Conference, (SNPS) investor day, (ALK) investor day, (MDB) investor day and the Denver Gold Americas Mining Forum could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Afternoon Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running -1.1% Below 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 10.7 -2.5
• 3 Sectors Rising, 8 Sectors Declining
• 27.3% of Issues Advancing, 71.2% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms .80 -21.6%
• Non-Block Money Flow -$291.0M
  
• 15 New 52-Week Highs, 433 New Lows
• 40.5% (-3.0%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 32.0 -4.0

Polymarket: 

• Will China invade Taiwan by June 30th 2027? 8.0% -1.0 percentage point
• Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31st 8.0% +1.0 percentage point
• Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by Dec. 31st 17.0% +4.0 percentage points
• Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31st 5.0% unch.
• US Invades Iran before 2027 15.0% +1.0 percentage point
• US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31st 33.0% +2.0 percentage points

Other

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 137.80 +.6%
• Global Monitor Iran Instability Index 60.0 unch.
• Strait of Hormuz Oil Tanker Traffic Curtailed Estimate 60.0% -30.0 percentage points
• US High-Yield Tech Sector OAS Index 433.0 +9.0 basis points
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 271.3 -.7%
• Morgan Stanley Growth vs Value Index 152.6 -1.4%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 34.0 (FEAR) -3.0
• 1-Day Vix 11.0 -11.8%
• Vix 15.9 +7.2%
• Total Put/Call .84 +12.0%

Monday Watch

Around X:

• @Business   

• President Donald Trump said he expects talks with Iran to resume this week, even after rejecting the latest Iranian proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, Axios reported, citing a phone interview with the president. 
• President Donald Trump said that some of the men arrested Sunday on terrorism charges by the UK near an air base used by the US military were under surveillance and aimed to inflict major damage. 
• Donald Trump and Xi Jinping discuss Taiwan arms sales every time they get together but the US stance on the self-ruled island remains unchanged following Xi’s visit to Washington last week, the US president’s top envoy to Beijing said. 
• Global anxiety over AI risks has intensified following fresh disclosures about a wide range of breaches by advanced AI models, setting the stage for a high-stakes meeting between Anthropic CEO Dario Amodei and President Trump.
• Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said Federal Reserve policymakers should keep an “open mind” on interest rates, arguing that productivity gains from artificial intelligence and deregulation will help keep US inflation in check. 
• The bond market is on the brink of signaling that investors expect a series of Federal Reserve interest-rate hikes will start shifting the narrative from worries over sticky inflation toward the risk that the US economy stalls out. 
• With AI advancing at unprecedented speed at companies around the world, many CFOs are realizing that their old ways of budgeting no longer work. 
• Here’s the latest news and analysis on the oil market. 
• Get up to speed on what's moving global markets.
• Here’s what you need to know to start your day: Morning Briefing Asia.    

• @Zerohedge  

• *TRUMP TO MAKE AN ANNOUNCEMENT 2PM ET MONDAY: WHITE HOUSE.
• INNIO says grid connection times have stretched from ~2 years historically to 7+ years today, which is why hyperscalers are now signing 15-year contracts for BTM power.
• TikTok To Pay Alabama At Least $100 Million, Add Teen Limits Before First State Trial.
• Beyond The SPR: Stifel Spots Another Depleted Strategic Stockpile In Urgent Need Of Rebuilding.
• Bond Market On The Brink Of Sounding Alarm On US Economy.
• Failing Lesbian Bar Faces Angry Leftist Mob After Finally Ending Mask Mandate.
• Homan Says 157,000 Missing Unaccompanied Immigrant Children Located.
• *TRUMP: DIESEL EXPORT BAN MAY CAUSE A LITTLE CAR GASOLINE RISE.
• *TRUMP ON DIESEL EXPORT BAN: THINKING OF IT VERY SERIOUSLY. *TRUMP ON MEETING WITH AMODEI: WILL SAY LET'S GO, LET'S WIN.
• "Looking To Do Big Damage": Trump Says Suspected UK Airbase Plotters Had Been Under Surveillance.
• Almost Half Of Americans Now Hold Positive Views Of Socialism.
• Iran 'Fully Prepared' To Resume War, We Don't Trust Trump: Iran FM.        
• Morgan Stanley: Investors Are Raising Expectations For Future Growth Even Faster Than Rates Are Rising.
• Xi Will Return And Put His Foot On The Pedal To Develop Better Chips, Better Models, And The Energy To Drive That Compute.
• The DOE Demands Faster Uranium Enrichment Buildout. Who's Answering The Call? 
• The Easy Money Fairy Tale Is About To End...Violently.
• FDA Commissioner Nominee Says Every Vaccine On US Market Is Safe, Effective.
• Consumer Credit Stress: What The Data Really Shows.
• "Coming Monday": Trump To Roll Back Costly 'Green' Rules To Drive Down Car Prices.
• Mamdani: Socialism "Will Absolutely Translate" Nationwide.
• US Stealth Bomber Base In UK On "Delta" Alert As Counter-Terror Police Make Arrests, Deploy Bomb Squad Search Of Vans.
• The Socialist Indoctrination Machine: Schools Are Teaching Young People To Embrace Big Government, Hate Capitalism.
• California Has Highest Personal Income Tax Rate, 8 States Have None....
• Hartnett Unveils The Two Numbers That Trigger A Risk-Off Deleveraging Cascade.        
• Goldman Says 'Don't Wait For The Midterms': Stagflation's Priced, Goldilocks Is Coming.
• Prepping For A Cashless Control Grid How Digital Currency Becomes Digital Control.
• Cuba In Crosshairs: US Army Reportedly Checks Troop Availability As Trump Says Communist Regime "Will Fail".      

• @CNBC 

• Stock futures slip after winning week on Wall Street: Live updates.
• Anthropic CEO Amodei set to meet with Trump after missing state dinner.
• China weighs allowing ByteDance, Alibaba to buy new Nvidia chips, The Information reports.
• Meta's Muse agent is attacking one of the economy's most profitable weak spots.
• Iran's foreign minister keeps indirect talks with the U.S. open; Iranian navy claims capture of underwater drone.      

Night Trading

• Asian indices are -.75% to +.25% on average.
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 70.25 +.25 basis point.
• China Sovereign CDS 34.0 +.25 basis point.
• China Iron Ore Spot 95.10 USD/Metric Tonne -.2%.
• Crude Oil 93.42/bbl. +1.1%
• Gold 4,252.60 USD/t oz. -1.6% 
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.09 -.23%. 
  
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 33.80 -.03%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 138.6 +1.2%.
• US 10-Year Yield 5.20% +4.0 basis points. 
• Japan 30-Year Yield 4.18% +2.0 basis points. 
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 17.7 +.8%. 
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.40%.
• S&P 500 futures -.26%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures -.32%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by technology and financial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to maintain losses into the afternoon. The Portfolio is 50% Net Long heading into the week.

Stocks Higher into Afternoon on Mideast War De-Escalation Hopes, AI Infrastructure Build-Out Optimism, Stable Long-Term Rates, Tech/Consumer Discretionary Sector Strength

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +50 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -20 open in China
• KOSPI 200 Futures: Indicating +1 open in South Korea 

• DAX Futures: Indicating +312 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Slightly Higher: On gains in my tech/consumer discretionary/industrial sector longs
• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
• Market Exposure: Moved to 75% net long

Monday's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• None of note

After the Close: 

• (MTN)/-5.35

Economic Releases 

10:30 am EST

• The Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity report for Sept. is estimated to fall to 7.3 versus 11.6 in Aug. 

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Williams speaking, Fed's Barkin speaking, Wolfe Research Utilities/Midstream, ROTH Healthcare Opportunities Conference and the RBC Communications Infra Conference could also impact global trading on Monday.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Friday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.25% to +.25% on average. 
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 71.5 +.75 basis point. 
• China Sovereign CDS 34.0 +.5 basis point.
• China Iron Ore Spot 95.60 USD/Metric Tonne unch. 
• Crude Oil 93.75/bbl. -.9%. 
• Gold 4,308.0 USD/t oz. +.23%. 
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.11 -.03%.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 33.76 -.07%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 136.7 +.3%.
• US 10-Year Yield 5.19% -1.0 basis point.
• Japan 30-Year Yield 4.23% +6.0 basis points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 18.0 +1.0%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.40%. 
• S&P 500 futures -.21%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures -.21%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by metals & mining and financial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.