Stocks Rising into Afternoon on Economic Optimism, Stimulus Hopes, Earnings Outlooks, Tech/Biotech Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 16.1 -3.9%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 3,519.0 +70.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 134.80 +.05%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.16 +.66%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 47.8 +.2%

• ISE Sentiment Index 117.0  -1.0 point
  

• Total Put/Call .66 -5.7%

• NYSE Arms .95 +4.4%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 50.70 -.96%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 436.0 -.02%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 58.36 -1.0%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 110.0 -1.0 basis point
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 85.77 -.44%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 160.07 +.03%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KCCB) 39.40 +.25%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 8.5 +.25 basis point

• TED Spread 12.75 -.5 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -1.0 unch.
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  62.25 -1.25 basis points
  
• IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 71.75 -.25 basis point
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 61.38 +.12%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .01% unch.
  

• Yield Curve 147.0 +4 basis points
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 188.50 USD/Metric Tonne +2.3%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 4.4 +1.1 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 154.70 +10.0 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 54.0 +2.3 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.45 +1.0 basis point
• 89.0% chance of no change at Sept. 22nd meeting, 89.0% chance of no change at Nov. 3rd meeting

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -59 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -21 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -9 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my technology/commodity/industrial/biotech/medical sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: None
  

• Market Exposure: 100% Net Long
  

Morning Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +13.6% Above 100-Day Average 
• 8 Sectors Rising, 3 Sectors Declining
• 51.2% of Issues Advancing, 44.2% Declining
• 149 New 52-Week Highs, 12 New Lows
• 87.8% of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 52.2%
  
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 3,506.0 +57.0 points
• Vix 16.5 -1.5%
• Total Put/Call .68 -2.9%
• TRIN/Arms 1.08 +18.7%

Friday Watch

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are +.25% to +1.25% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 85.75 -.25 basis point.

• China Sovereign CDS 36.75 -.5 basis point.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 61.29 -.03%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 3,321.0 -128.0 points.
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 18.7 +.5%.
• FTSE 100 futures +.47%.

• S&P 500 futures +.32%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.19%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

 

Before the Open: 

• (BIG)/1.73
• (CAL)/.03
• (HIBB)/2.44
  

After the Close:

• None of note
  

Economic Releases

8:30 am EST

• Advance Goods Trade Balance for April is estimated to widen to -$92.0B versus -$90.6B in March. 
• Wholesale Inventories MoM for April is estimated to rise +.7% versus a +1.3% gain in March.
• Retail Inventories MoM for April is estimated to fall -2.0% versus a -1.4% decline in March.
• Personal Income for April is estimated to fall -14.3% versus a +21.1% gain in March.
• Personal Spending for April is estimated to rise +.2% versus a +3.6% gain in March.
• The PCE Core MoM for April is estimated to rise +.6% versus a +.4% gain in March.
  

9:45 am EST

• MNI Chicago PMI for May is estimated to fall to 68.0 versus 72.1 in April.

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Eurozone CPI report and the (PUK) investor day could also impact global trading today.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST
  

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Slightly Higher into Final Hour on US Economic Data, Oil Gain, Technical Buying, Commodity/Industrial Sector Strength

Broad Equity Market Tone:

• Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  

• Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  

• Volume: Around Average

• Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
  

Equity Investor Angst:

• Volatility(VIX) 16.8 -3.2%
• Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 3,422.0 +86.0 points

• Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 138.34 +.64%

• Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 9.2 -.1%

• S&P 500 Implied Correlation 48.3 -3.9%

• ISE Sentiment Index 117.0  +1.0 point
  

• Total Put/Call .66 -10.8%

• NYSE Arms .58 -4.9%

Credit Investor Angst:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 51.21 -.92%
  

• US Energy High-Yield OAS 436.35 -.72%

• European Financial Sector CDS Index 58.95 -.87%

• Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 111.0 -3.0 basis points
  

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 86.13 +.13%
  

• Emerging Market CDS Index 160.02 -.51%
  

• China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KCCB) 39.39 +.23%

• 2-Year Swap Spread 8.25 +.25 basis point

• TED Spread 13.5 +.5 basis point
  

• 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -1.0 +.5 basis point
  
• MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread  63.5 +1.25 basis points
  
• IHS Markit CMBX BBB- 6 72.0 +.25 basis point
  

Economic Gauges:

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 61.31 +.12%
• 3-Month T-Bill Yield .01% unch.
  

• Yield Curve 143.0 unch.
  

• China Iron Ore Spot 185.0 USD/Metric Tonne +11.1%

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 3.3 -.3 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 144.70 +8.0 points
  

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 51.7 -1.6 points

• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.44 +1.0 basis point
• 89.0% chance of no change at Sept. 22nd meeting, 89.0% chance of no change at Nov. 3rd meeting

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +146 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +49 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -3 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my technology/commodity/industrial sector longs
  

• Disclosed Trades: None
  

• Market Exposure: 100% Net Long
  

Bear Radar

 Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth +.1%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Tobacco -.7% 2) Pharma -.5% 3) Airlines -.4%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• TVTX, WOOF, CROX, DLTR, OSH, RLGY, OKTA, PLAN and NXGN
  

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) AMRS 2) DLTR 3) BOX 4) GE 5) BBY
  

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) EXPR 2) CCIV 3) PDD 4) SKLZ 5) PTON
  

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Value +1.3%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Steel +2.6% 2) Oil Service +1.7% 3) Networking +1.7%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• AMC, LNTH, BOLT, BYND, FOSL, CEIX, TGI, ORGO, VSTO, TPX, RBLX, DASH, SPCE, VSAT, F, GE, AFIB, GOGO, PSAC, X, ANF, RETA, SNCY, UA, WWD, ABNB, EVRI, AVIR, DXC, TDG and SWBI
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) AMRS 2) OKTA 3) COMM 4) DLTR 5) BLUE

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) TITN 2) TELL 3) VSTO 4) ANF 5) OOMA
  

Charts:

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume