Stocks Surging into Final Hour on US/Greenland Deal Optimism, Falling Long-Term Rates, Less Global Tariff Uncertainty, Financial/Energy Sector Strength

Economic/Market Gauges:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 48.9 -2.6%
• Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .20 unch.
• BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator -.16 +6.0 basis points
• European Financial Sector CDS Index 54.7 -1.4%
• Emerging Market CDS Index 125.8 -3.0%
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 4.7 +.8

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 17.6 -.7 point

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 17.9 -2.7 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 19.9 -.6 point 
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(49 of 500 reporting) +18.1% +1.4 percentage points
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 313.17 -.21:  Growth Rate +16.3% -.1 percentage point, P/E 21.8 -.1
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.30% +9.0 basis points
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(1 of 10 reporting) +40.2% +n/a
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 491.70 +.14: Growth Rate +19.7% +.1 percentage point, P/E 30.4 -.6
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .65 +7.0 basis points
• US Yield Curve 66.25 basis points (2s/10s) -3.25 basis points 
• Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 168.1 +.04% 
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 26.3% +1.2 percentage points
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q4 Forecast +5.4% +10.0 basis points
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.25% -4.0 basis points
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.87 +6.0 basis points

• Highest target rate probability for March 18th FOMC meeting: 82.2% (+3.3 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for April 29th meeting: 68.6%(+2.8 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +616 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating +27 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating +400 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my tech/financial/industrial/consumer discretionary/biotech sector longs
• Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and some of my emerging market shorts
• Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (ABT)/1.50
• (FCX)/.29
• (GE)/1.43
• (MKC)/.88
• (MBLY)/.06
• (NTRS)/2.37
• (PG)/1.86 
• (ROK)/2.46
• (LUV)/.57 

After the Close: 

• (ALK)/.11
• (AA)/.93
• (COF)/4.14
• (CSX)/.41
• (INTC)/.08
• (ISRG)/2.27 

Economic Release 

8:30 am EST

• 3Q GDP revisions. 
• Initial Jobless Claims for last week are estimated to rise to 209K versus 198K the prior week.
• Continuing Claims is estimated to rise to 1892K versus 1884K prior.
• BEA to release Oct.-Nov. Personal Income data. 

11:00 am EST

• The Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Activity Index for Jan. is estimated rise to 5.0 versus 1.0 in Dec. 

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q4 update, Dallas Fed PCE for Nov., weekly EIA natural gas inventory report, Fed's weekly balance sheet report, SPIE Photonics West Expo, CIBC Western Institutional Investor Conference, (JBL) annual meeting and the (INTU) annual meeting could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

• Volume Running +6.9% Above 100-Day Average 
• Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 11.5 -.8
• 4 Sectors Declining, 7 Sectors Rising
• 64.5% of Issues Advancing, 32.9% Declining 
• TRIN/Arms 1.34 +86.1%
• Non-Block Money Flow +$268.0M
  
• 194 New 52-Week Highs, 31 New Lows
• 68.7% (+1.9%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
• Average 14-Day RSI 59.9 -1.0

Polymarket:

• Supreme Court Rules in Favor of Trump's Tariffs? 31.0% unch.
• Will there be another US government shutdown by January 31st? 12.0% unch.
• Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? 12.0% -1.0 percentage point
• US strikes Iran by June 30th 60.0% +6.0 percentage points

Other:

• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 99.8 -.02%
• US High-Yield Tech Sector OAS Index 416.75 +.5 basis point
• Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 263.6 +.9%
• Morgan Stanley Growth vs Value Index 153.9 -2.0%
• CNN Fear & Greed Index 48.0 (NEUTRAL) -5.0
• 1-Day Vix 13.6 -19.1%
  
• Vix 19.3 -3.8%
  
• Total Put/Call .72 -16.3%

Wednesday Watch

Around X:

• @Business  

• A sharp rise in Japanese government bond volatility “risks resulting in a rise in volatility in other asset classes, particularly US Treasuries, necessitating a reduction in overall portfolio size,” according to Citigroup Global Markets.
• Japan’s financial stocks declined as Tuesday’s government bond meltdown raised alarms about potential losses for lenders and brokerages. 
• OpenAI says it will pay for the costs of developing energy-related infrastructure required by its Stargate data centers to address concerns the facilities may drive up consumers’ utility bills.
• The embattled interim US attorney in eastern Virginia, Lindsey Halligan, is leaving her post, according to US Attorney General Pam Bondi.
• Data centers that have lined up new electricity capacity for their facilities would get priority in connecting to the largest US power grid under a proposal by PJM.
• Get up to speed on what's moving global markets.
• Here's what you need to know to start your day.   

• @ZeroHedge

• Putting A Stake In Stakeholder Capitalism.
• "Out Of Touch": Marylanders Fume As Gov. Moore Prioritizes Building Energy-Hungry 'Sphere' Amid Power Bill Crisis.
• Fauci & Collins Brushed Off 'Impressive' Data For COVID Natural Immunity.
• Great catching up with the real star of the 2026 World Economic Forum, my friend Gavin Newsom. So glad he’s here calling out world leaders for believing appeasement works when it comes to Trump. It doesn’t. It only emboldens him to become more chaotic and destructive. World leaders could take a page out of Newsom’s book. It’s time to stand tall, stand firm, and stand united — before it’s too late. -@AlexanderSoros.  
• Trump Says 'Agitators' In Minnesota Church Should Be Jailed, Wants Broader Investigation.
• Democrats Are Trying To Weaponize The 25th Amendment Again, And It Won't Work.
• The population of Greenland is about ~50,000. We could easily send 100,000+ illegals there, burn their flags, demand free stuff, and then vote in their elections! Or would that be problematic?  
• Maybe It's Time For Conservative Patriots To Rally In Minneapolis.
• Trump Disguises Himself As Muslim Migrant So Europe Will Let Him Invade Greenland.
• Leftists Call For Political Purge Of MAGA If They Return To Power.
• By The Numbers... Trump's (Second) First Year In 10 Charts.
• Gold Jumps, Crypto Dumps As Trump Tensions & Tokyo Tumult Spark Global Bond Rout.    

• @CNBC

• CNBC Daily Open: Trump's intensifying pressure on Greenland prompts investors to 'sell America'
  .
• Asia-Pacific markets set for lower open, tracking Wall Street losses after Trump escalates Greenland tariff rhetoric
  .
• Wednesday's big stock stories: What’s likely to move the market in the next trading session.
    
• Stock futures tick higher after S&P 500 and Dow notch worst day since October: Live updates.
• Stocks making the biggest moves after hours: Netflix, United Airlines, Interactive Brokers and more.
• United Airlines could hit record earnings after strong start to 2026.
• Netflix posts narrow earnings beat, reports 325 million global subscribers.

• @MarioNawful 

• BREAKING: AIR FORCE ONE TURNED AROUND DUE TO MECHANICAL ISSUE, TRUMP SWITCHING TO BACKUP PLANE. False alarm. Mechanical issue, not an emergency. Trump is still heading to Davos, just swapping planes at Joint Base Andrews.

• @LaraLogan

• It’s increasingly obvious those responsible for putting Tina Peters behind bars to cover up their election crimes do not want her to survive. If Pres Trump doesn’t move heaven & earth to intervene & Tina dies, it will cost him dearly. The traitors know this. 

• @GenFlynn

• If you don’t listen to Ms. Catherine Austin Fitts, you need to start paying attention. Her
  @solari_the report is worth reading all the time. (video)

• @MJTruthUltra

• This is bullshit! Tina Peters deemed the aggressor in an assault that took place against her and now faces Felony Assault Charges Tina was inside a maintenance closet to fill up a water unit when an inmate approached her in the closet and began striking her in anger. Tina raised her hands and pushed the inmate away in defense of herself. Per Tina, the camera showed her pushing the inmate away from her out of the closet. She was subsequently handcuffed, shackled, and brought to solitary confinement. Tina was told she is being charged with Felony Assault for defending herself against an unprovoked attack. She will be locked down completely for 24-72 hours and held in IDO (the hole) for an unknown period of time. (video)

• @ShadowofEzra

• The President and CEO of the World Economic Forum says the organization will “orchestrate” the right conditions to guide the world forward. Calling this an uncertain moment, the WEF says it wants to shape new global dialogues and bring the public into them. Do you want to engage in a dialogue with the World Economic Forum? (video)

• @greg_price11

• Democrats now control the legislature and Governor's office in Virginia. Here are just a few of the bills they've introduced... (list)

• @BGatesIsaPsycho

• “The Trump Administration and I are here to make a very clear point:….” “GLOBALISM HAS FAILED”. “Why are you going to do solar and wind, why would Europe agree to become that zero when you don’t make a battery? “You’re entitled to have borders” “Globalism has left the American people behind - America First different model one that we encourage other countries to adopt”. US Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick just went nuclear on the globalist at The WEF in Davos. (video)

• @RepLuna

• Democrats in Virginia have introduced a bill to eliminate mandatory minimum sentencing for rape, manslaughter, assaulting a law enforcement officer, possession and distribution of child pornography, and all repeat violent felonies. This is satanic. It’s time to call out this stuff out by what it is.

• @Liz_churchill10

• The Liars, Thieves and Medical Murderers would like your trust back. “The World now places far less trust in us to help shape what comes next…”. “If the World Economic Forum is going to be useful going forward, it has to regain that trust…” (video)
• One of the most dangerous men in the World. Larry Fink is the Chief DEI Officer of the World Economic Forum and new co-President. Infamously known for stating, “We force people to change their behaviours”, Fink is solely responsible for the Global DEI Disasters.

• @Breaking911

• Aerial footage reveals widespread devastation in Penco, Chile, after a massive wildfire destroyed hundreds of structures and forced thousands of residents to flee. (video)

• @ArthurMacwaters

• Let me get this straight: 1. nearly every major democracy requires ID to vote and prohibits mail-in ballots 2. it's impossible to measure cheating if you don't measure the thing which would be cheated against 3. the Senate *still* has not passed the SAVE act This is essential to secure elections. Without them, our elections cannot be even measured fully in their level of security or insecurity. This is critical. Easily the most important thing the Senate can do right now. (list)

• @MaryBowdenMD

• DOJ has canceled 3 enforcement actions against Pfizer, and @AGPamBondi is trying to have @IamBrookJackson’s case against Pfizer dismissed. Bondi previously worked for Pfizer.

• @ValerieAnne1970

• Planes & helicopters are dropping millions of live, genetically engineered rabies “vaccine baits” across America—without public notice or consent. The USDA confirms the operation spans 6 states, coating rural communities with lab-made oral vaccines known as RABORAL V-RG®. What most don’t realize is that these baits contain a live recombinant virus capable of infecting multiple species. A 2019 Vaccine study found it can persist & shed for weeks, leaving animals contagious long after exposure. Even the CDC admits people may be “at risk for vaccine virus infection.” (video)

• @WallStreetMav

• While you weren’t paying attention, the Senate took a 7-day recess ending on January 24. That leaves them 5 work days to get 6 government funding bills passed, and all of them are still bloated with hundreds of millions of dollars in earmarks and wasteful spending like the $315 million for the National Endowment for Democracy. This “Republican” majority would sooner give illegal aliens amnesty than eliminate waste, fraud, and abuse. If you’re a Republican, you need to vote RINOs out in the primaries. It’s the only way to get a party that will fight the Democrats and win.

• @discloseTV

• MORE - Palantir's Alex Karp to Larry Fink: "I still view myself as a card-carrying progressive... the [AI] revolution that's coming is going to expose the actual market value of what you're doing."

• @Shilohmarx

• The United States processed 27 million online voter registration applications between 2018 and 2020. These 27 million online applications required no proof of citizenship.
• Senator John Thune won South Dakota by 151,309 votes in 2022. South Dakota processed 147,980 voter registrations applications between 2020-2022. South Dakota does not require proof of citizenship to register to vote.

• @Cernovich

• Democrats won Virginia and are going full Marxist. Taxes at California levels. Banning white men from government contracts. Surveillance tech cameras to issue tickets. Internet voting. Gun bans. There is no such thing as a moderate Democrat.

Night Trading 

• Asian equity indices are -.5% to unch. on average. 
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 66.75 +.5 basis point.
• China Sovereign CDS 43.5 unch.
• China Iron Ore Spot 103.2 USD/Metric Tonne -.8%. 
• Gold 4,833.1 USD/t oz. +1.4%. 
• Swiss Franc/Offshore Chinese Renminbi Cross 8.81 +.09%.
• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.1 +.01%.
• Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 99.4 -.4%.
• US 10-Year Yield 4.28% -1.0 basis point.
• Japan 30-Year Yield 3.83% -5.0 basis points. 
• Volatility Index(VIX) futures 19.9 -2.4%.
• Euro Stoxx 50 futures -.30%. 
• S&P 500 futures +.25%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures +.23%.

Morning Preview Links

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower, weighed down by technology and consumer discretionary shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower.  The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.

Stocks Falling Substantially into Final Hour on Rising Long-Term Rates, Escalating Tariff Uncertainty, Earnings Outlook Jitters, Tech/Transport Sector Weakness

Economic/Market Gauges:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 50.21 +3.2%
• Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .20 -1.0 basis point
• BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator -.22 +3.0 basis points
• European Financial Sector CDS Index 55.4 +.8%
• Emerging Market CDS Index 129.7 +1.9%
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 3.9 +1.2

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 18.3 +3.7 points

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 20.6 -2.6 points

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 20.5 -3.6 points 
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(37 of 500 reporting) +16.7% -.9 percentage point
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 313.38 +1.05:  Growth Rate +16.4% +.4 percentage point, P/E 21.9 -.4
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.21% -5.0 basis points
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) +n/a +n/a
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 491.56 +1.55: Growth Rate +19.6% +.3 percentage point, P/E 31.0 -1.1
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .57 -18.0 basis points
• US Yield Curve 69.5 basis points (2s/10s) +6.25 basis points 
• Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 168.1 -.6% 
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 25.1% -1.8 percentage points
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q4 Forecast +5.3% unch.
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.29% +6.0 basis points
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.81 +3.0 basis points

• Highest target rate probability for March 18th FOMC meeting: 76.6% (-2.3 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for April 29th meeting: 62.3%(-3.5 percentage points) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -680 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -80 open in China

• DAX Futures: Indicating -12 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Lower: On losses in my tech/financial/industrial/consumer discretionary sector longs
• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges and to my emerging market shorts
• Market Exposure: Moved to 25% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth -2.2%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Computer Services -3.6% 2) Road & Rail -3.0% 3) Gambling -2.8%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• WST, DPZ, EVMD, SRAD, CEG, IR, MESO, NPB, FAST, MS, LIF, TSM, UNP, OTEX, WIX, AZN, NTNX, TRMB, IBN, LOGI, TWO, PFSI, FIG, RDW, VITL, VELO, CRML, ADUR, MMM, IOT, GLOB, RUN, NTAP, MUR, AVAV and BKKT

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) WEN 2) AQST 3) GFS 4) IBRX 5) MMM

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) BTGR 2) NTAP 3) STUB 4) CRWV 5) MMM

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) AIRR 2) SMH 3) VAW 4) XLI 5) IXN

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume