Stocks Reversing Lower into Afternoon on Rising Fed Rate-Hike Odds, War-Induced Inflation Fears, Technical Selling, Tech/Biotech Sector Weakness

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -560 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -105 open in China
• KOSPI 200 Futures: Indicating +3 open in South Korea 

• DAX Futures: Indicating +7 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Lower: On losses in my tech/industrial/biotech sector longs
• Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
• Market Exposure: Moved to 75% net long

Monday's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (SAIC)/2.31

After the Close: 

• None of note

Economic Releases 

• None of note

Upcoming Splits

• (RUSHA) 3-for-2

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Dallas Fed Manufacturing Business Index for Aug. and the SMM World Leading Maritime Trade Show could also impact global trading on Monday.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Stocks Higher into Final Hour on AI Infrastructure Build-Out Optimism, Short-Covering, Technical Buying, Tech/Energy Sector Strength

Economic/Market Gauges:

• North American Investment Grade CDS Index 51.0 +.4%
• BofA Private Credit Proxy Index 73.7 -.01% 
• Bloomberg US Securitized MBS/ABS/CMBS Avg. OAS .29 +2.0 basis points
• BofA Global Financial Stress Indicator -.20 +1.0 basis point
• European Financial Sector CDS Index 53.6 +.5%
• Emerging Market CDS Index 136.9 +.04%
• Israel Sovereign CDS 53.7 -.3%
• Bloomberg Global Trade Policy Uncertainty Index 1.2 +.1
• US Morning Consult Daily Consume Sentiment Index 90.5 +1.4

• Citi US Economic Surprise Index 25.0 +.7

• Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 88.9 -1.0

• Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 24.1 +.9
• S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(481 of 500 reporting) +52.2% +2.6 percentage points
• S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 392.34 +.28:  Growth Rate +19.5% -13.7 percentage points, P/E 19.7 +.1
• S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 16.28% unch.
• NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(9 of 10 reporting) +133.3% -5.1 percentage points
• NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 954.51 +1.23: Growth Rate +84.1% +.2 percentage point, P/E 19.5 +.3
• Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index 1.25 +5.0 basis points
• US Yield Curve 44.0 basis points (2s/10s) unch.
• Bloomberg Industrial Metal Index 180.2 -.04%
• Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 68.1 euros/megawatt-hour +3.8%
• US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 13.9 -.8% percentage point
• US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q3 Forecast +4.6% unch.
• US 10-Year T-Note Yield 4.67% +2.0 basis points
• 1-Year TIPS Spread 2.06 +4.0 basis points

• Highest target rate probability for Oct. 28th FOMC meeting: 48.5% (+.6 percentage point) chance of 3.5%-3.75%. Highest target rate probability for Dec. 9th meeting: 45.3%(+.1 percentage point) chance of 3.75%-4.0%. (current target rate is 3.5-3.75%)
  

Overseas Futures:

• Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -220 open in Japan 
• China A50 Futures: Indicating -53 open in China
• KOSPI 200 Futures: Indicating -20 open in South Korea 

• DAX Futures: Indicating +32 open in Germany

Portfolio:

• Higher: On gains in my tech sector longs
• Disclosed Trades: None
• Market Exposure: 100% net long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

• Large-Cap Value -.2%

Sector Underperformers:

• 1) Restaurants -2.0% 2) Retail -1.7% 3) Computer Hardware -1.5%

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 

• DLTR, TITN, URBN, NSSC, HPQ, BBY, MRNA, BZ, TREE, HMY, BURL, PAY, HRL, NEXA, REAX, HQY and BBW

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:

• 1) HRL 2) AMBA 3) S 4) URBN 5) RBRK

Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:

• 1) WEN 2) CCOI 3) TITN 4) HRL 5) LUCK

Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:

• 1) XLF 2) DRAM 3) XLI 4) XLK 5) GDX

Charts:

• ETFs Falling on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Large-Cap Growth +1.8%

Sector Outperformers:

• 1) Software +7.3% 2) Cyber Security +7.1% 3) Oil Service +3.6%

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• OKTA, CRM, CRWD, PURR, OOMA, VEEV, SAIL, FIG, SRPT, TENB, FROG, MSTR, BRUN, RBRK, SNPS, S, SLS, TH, NEO, TEAM, KVYO, NTSK, ASST, NOW, NVDA, NTNX, MBUU, METC, REF, MARA, BTDR, MESO, BL, ESTC, ECO, DJT, BMNR, AYA, CRCL, CIFR, COIN, SAP, TYL, DG, ARCT, DT, BWLP, BOX, BWLP, CMBT, HP and RDVT

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) ANF 2) HONA 3) BMNU 4) DKS 5) VERA 

Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:

• 1) NVDA 2) CRWD 3) CRM 4) OKTA 5) OOMA 

Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:

• 1) SOXX 2) XLE 3) MGNR 4) BKGI 5) BUG

Charts: 

• ETFs Rising on Unusual Volume
• Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:

• (FRO)/2.74

After the Close: 

• None of note

Economic Releases 

9:45 am EST

• The MNI Chicago PMI for Aug. is estimated to rise to 57.9 versus 57.6 in July. 

10:00 am EST

• Final Univ. of Mich. Consumer Sentiment readings for Aug. 
• Preliminary Benchmark Payrolls Revision for 2026. 

11:00 am EST

• The Kansas City Fed Services Activity Index for Aug.  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Fed's Warsh speaking at Jackson Hole, the US Baker Hughes rig count and the weekly CFTC speculative net positioning reports could also impact global trading tomorrow.

US Equity Market Hours

• 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST