Monday Watch

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:

• Trump Says Islamic State's Al-Baghdadi Killed in U.S. Raid.  

• U.S. Strike on Al-Baghdadi Built on Weeks of Syria Surveillance.

• Lawmakers Shower Praise on U.S. Forces After Al-Baghdadi Death.

• Brexit Impasse Persists as Johnson Says MPs Holding U.K. Hostage.   

• Xi Uses China’s Biggest Annual Meeting for Politics, Not Economy. 

• Hong Kong Protests Flare for 21st Weekend Amid Global Unrest.

• Louis Vuitton Maker Is Looking to Buy Tiffany.

• Carles Puigdemont Accuses EU of Ignoring Catalonia Protests.

• Stocks in Asia Muted, U.S. Treasuries Hold Losses. Stocks in Asia began the week with subdued trading Monday after the S&P 500 Index climbed toward a record. Ten-year Treasury yields held near five-week highs. Equity benchmarks were little changed from Tokyo and Seoul to Sydney. Shanghai and Hong Kong shares opened to modest gains, while Singapore was closed for a holiday. Investors await the Federal Reserve’s policy decision Wednesday, along with further developments on U.S.-China trade talks and corporate earnings. Oil is trading above $56 a barrel in New York. Japan’s Topix index was little changed as of 10:35 a.m. in Tokyo. Futures on the S&P 500 added 0.1%. The underlying gauge rose 0.4% on Friday. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index ticked up 0.1%. South Korea’s Kospi index added 0.4%. Shanghai Composite up 0.6%. Hang Seng rose 0.3%.  

• Oil Steady After Weekly Surge on Signs of Trade Deal Progress.   

• Five Things You Need to Know to Start Your Day.   

• Fed Cut Signals, U.S. Recession Debate, Hong Kong Slump: Eco Day.

• PG&E Cuts Off Power to More Than 2.5 Million as Fires Burn.  

• Fed, Consumers Turn a Deaf Ear to Wall Street’s Recession Siren.

• Winner-Take-All Bloat May Preserve Huge S&P 500 Profit Advantage.

• Biden Suggests He'd Be a One-Term President: Campaign Update.  

• Prologis to Buy Liberty Property in $9.7 Billion Stock Deal.

Wall Street Journal:

• Hong Kong Banks, Long Fat and Happy, Confront Leaner Times.

• Trump Moves Closer to Ending Another Post-Cold War Treaty.

• Georgia GOP on Pins and Needles Over Gov. Kemp’s Senate Choice.

• Tiffany(TIF) Receives LVMH Takeover Bid of About $120 a Share.

• Twilight of the Stock Pickers: Hedge Fund Kings Face a Reckoning.

• Microsoft’s(MSFT) Challenge of Amazon in the Cloud Gains Force.

Fox News:

• Al-Baghdadi takedown blunts criticism of Trump’s troop pullback; Dems out of the loop.

• Congresswoman steps down after reported affair that sparked ethics probe.

CNBC:

• The Fed and Apple earnings will make or break market’s return to record highs in the week ahead.

• Semis could rally up to 30% within two years, tech investor Paul Meeks predicts.

Zero Hedge:    

• California Fires Spark Massive Mandatory Evacuations; Wineries Burn As Winds Hit 93 MPH.

• UPS Drones Will Now Deliver CVS Prescriptions To Your Home.

• Mexican Oil Hedging Desk "Covered Against Downside Risk".

• Hillary's "A Donald Trump Asset" - Bill Maher Urges Clintons To "Go Away".

• The Fed's "Not QE" And How We Are Playing It.

• Trump Confirms ISIS Leader Al-Baghdadi Killed In US Raid.

• Homecoming Horror Leaves 2 Dead, 14 Injured In Mass Shooting At Texas A&M Off-Campus Party.

• Big Brother Meets Big Pharma: Harvesting Biometrics Of Everyone.

• Shocking Satire Shows 'Boston Dynamics' Testing New Robotic Super-Soldier.

Night Trading

• Asian indices are +.25% to +.75% on average.

• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 67.5 -1.0 basis point.

• China Sovereign CDS 38.75 -.5 basis point.

• Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 66.03 -.%.

• FTSE 100 futures +.09%.

• S&P 500 futures +.18%.

• NASDAQ 100 futures +.31%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note

Company/Estimate

Before the Open:

• (AMG)/3.14

• (T)/.94

• (CTB)/.49

• (DO)/-.69

• (L)/.68

• (WBA)/1.41

After the Close:

• (AKAM)/1.00

• (GOOG)/12.69

• (AVB)/2.35

• (BYND)/.04

• (BRO)/.39

• (CGNX)/.20

• (NXPI)/1.93

• (OI)/.55

• (RIG)/-.37

• (VNO)/1.31

• (XPO)/1.02

Economic Releases
8:30 am EST

• The Chicago Fed National Activity Index for Sept. is estimated to rise to .15 versus .10 in Aug.

• Advance Goods Trade Balance for Sept. is estimated at -$73.5B versus -$72.8B in Aug.

• Wholesale Inventories MoM for Sept. is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.2% gain in Aug.

10:30 am EST

• Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity for Oct. is estimated at 0.0 versus 1.5 in Sept.
  

Upcoming Splits

• None of note
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Japan CPI report could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are higher, boosted by technology and industrial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to rally into the afternoon, finishing modestly higher.  The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the week.