Friday, October 04, 2019

Stocks Rising into Final Hour on US Economic Data, Less European/Emerging Markets/US High-Yield Debt Angst, Technical Buying, Homebuilding/Metals & Mining Sector Strength

 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  • Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Rising
  • Volume: Below Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 17.7 -7.4%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 121.85 +.12%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.02 -.99%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 43.6 -5.5%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 73.0 -9.3%
  • Total Put/Call 1.06 -22.0%
  • NYSE Arms 1.27 +64.9%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 61.10 -2.96%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 496.0 -.50%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 68.29 -1.24%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 141.75 unch.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 78.87 +.33%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 209.38 -1.23%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 166.11 -.01%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 2.75 -1.5 basis points
  • TED Spread 35.25 -2.5 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -27.0 +.5 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 65.67 +.29%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 1.69% -1.0 basis point
  • Yield Curve .12 -3.0 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 88.30 USD/Metric Tonne -.32%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 23.20 -1.3 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -76.70 +.5 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -9.40 -.6 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.50 +2.0 basis points
  • 91.6% chance of Fed rate cut at Dec. 11th meeting, 96.8% chance of cut at Jan. 29th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +90 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -54 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +11 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my biotech/tech/medical/industrial/retail sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long

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