Tuesday, October 29, 2019

Stocks Slightly Lower into Final Hour on China Trade Deal Jitters, Oil Decline, Profit-Taking, Tech/Retail Sector Weakness

 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Slightly Higher
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Above Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 13.2 +.8%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 125.59 +.02%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 7.11 -.56%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 31.16 +3.73%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 98.0 -7.0
  • Total Put/Call .92 +13.6%
  • NYSE Arms .76 -24.8%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 54.0 +1.21%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 492.0 -1.68%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 58.58 +2.06%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 133.75 unch.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 66.13 -1.69%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 192.88 +.79%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 167.11 +.02%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 2.75 -.25 basis point
  • TED Spread 33.25 +6.5 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -21.5 +1.25 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 66.34 -.05%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 1.60% -4.0 basis points
  • Yield Curve .20 +2.0 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 83.15 USD/Metric Tonne -.81%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 1.4 -1.6 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -52.30 +.2 point
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -17.0 -.4 basis point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.62 -3.0 basis points
  • 95.6% chance of Fed rate cut at Dec. 11th meeting, 96.6% chance of cut at Jan. 29th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -29 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -8 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -13 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Lower: On losses in my tech/retail sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

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