Thursday, October 10, 2019

Stocks Higher into Final Hour on China Trade Deal Hopes, Oil Gain, Short-Covering, Financial/Commodity Sector Strength

 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 18.2 -2.3%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 123.41 +.78%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.27 +.73%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 44.0 -3.5%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 99.0 -13.1%
  • Total Put/Call 1.03 -4.6%
  • NYSE Arms .86 +14.7%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 60.28 -2.6%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 524.0 -.4%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 65.81 -3.52%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 142.75 +1.0 basis point
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 78.14 -.32%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 210.18 -1.34%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 166.34 -.01%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 3.0 +.5 -.5 basis point
  • TED Spread 34.25 -.5 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -25.5 -.25 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 65.43 +.33%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 1.67% unch.
  • Yield Curve .12 +1.0 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 85.90 USD/Metric Tonne -3.3%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 11.0 -6.7 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -79.0 -2.3 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -12.60 -1.4 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.52 +3.0 basis points
  • 89.8% chance of Fed rate cut at Dec. 11th meeting, 93.7% chance of cut at Jan. 29th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +124 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +73 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -25 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my tech/retail/industrial sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long

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