Monday, October 14, 2019

Stocks Stocks Slightly Lower into Final Hour on China Trade Deal Uncertainty, Oil Decline, Profit-Taking, Retail/Gaming Sector Weakness

 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Modestly Lower
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Light
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 14.9 -4.7%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 124.08 -.11%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 7.98 -2.21%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 35.81 -4.9%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 90.0 -8.16%
  • Total Put/Call 1.28 +29.3%
  • NYSE Arms 1.23 +98.4%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 56.62 -1.66%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 498.0 -3.82%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 62.97 +3.18%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 137.0 -1.25 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 75.0 -.44%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 205.37 +.54%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 166.47 +.05%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 6.0 +.5  basis point
  • TED Spread 34.0 +1.0 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -14.0 +4.0 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 65.56 -.14%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 1.66% unch.
  • Yield Curve .14 n/a
  • China Iron Ore Spot 85.85 USD/Metric Tonne -2.76%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 15.20 -.1 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -75.0 +3.1 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -19.90 -2.0 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.56 -1.0 basis point
  • 82.8% chance of Fed rate cut at Dec. 11th meeting, 88.5% chance of cut at Jan. 29th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +237 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -9 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -8 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Higher: On gains in my tech/biotech sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

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