Wednesday, October 16, 2019

Stocks Slightly Lower into Final Hour on Brexit Deal Concerns, Earnings Jitters, Profit-Taking, Tech/Energy Sector Weakness

 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Around Even
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 14.0 +3.0%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 124.93 +.2%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 7.94 unch.
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 33.33 +4.4%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 119.0 -5.74%
  • Total Put/Call .90 -11.8%
  • NYSE Arms .86 +30.3%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 56.42 -.03%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 483.0 -2.64%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 58.55 -2.82%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 131.50 -4.0 basis points
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 72.83 -1.73%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 204.55 +1.55%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 166.59 +.03%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 4.25 unch.
  • TED Spread 35.0 -.5 basis point
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -14.5-.5 basis point
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 65.52 +.15%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 1.66% +1.0 basis point
  • Yield Curve .16 +1.0 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 83.0 USD/Metric Tonne -4.23%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 13.60 -2.3 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -70.3 +1.3 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -19.80 -.2 point
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.57 unch.
  • 90.6% chance of Fed rate cut at Dec. 11th meeting, 93.8% chance of cut at Jan. 29th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +101 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating +15 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating -5 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Higher: On losses in my retail/industrial/biotech sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

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