Thursday, October 31, 2019

Stocks Lower into Final Hour on China Trade Deal Concerns, Impeachment Uncertainty, Global Growth Worries, Energy/Transport Sector Weakness

 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  • Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Declining
  • Volume: Above Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 13.7 +10.7%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 124.98 -.79%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 7.20 +.56%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 33.01 +18.4%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 77.0 -16.0
  • Total Put/Call 1.12 +16.7%
  • NYSE Arms 1.37 +26.9%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 55.21 +1.58%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 483.0 -.62%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 59.82 +.62%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 133.0 -1.5 basis point
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 67.0 +.93%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 198.84 +1.85%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 167.22 +.05%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 3.25 +1.0 basis point
  • TED Spread 38.25 +4.75 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -19.0 -1.25 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 66.18 -.15%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 1.53% -7.0 basis points
  • Yield Curve .16 -3.0 basis points
  • China Iron Ore Spot 82.78 USD/Metric Tonne +2.3%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 4.7 -3.1 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -43.10 +9.1 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -27.0 -6.2 basis points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.60 -2.0 basis points
  • 53.6% chance of Fed rate cut at Jan. 29th meeting, 63.5% chance of cut at March 18th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating -209 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -31 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +1 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Lower: On losses in my tech/biotech/industrial/retail sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Added to my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 75% Net Long

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