Friday, October 18, 2019

Stocks Lower into Afternoon on Brexit Deal Worries, Global Growth Concerns, Profit-Taking, Tech/Defense Sector Weakness

 Broad Equity Market Tone:
  • Advance/Decline Line: Lower
  • Sector Performance: Mixed
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Performing In Line
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 14.3 +3.5%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 125.69 +.16%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 7.76 -.89%
  • S&P 500 Implied Correlation 33.65 -.03%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 75.0 +34.1%
  • Total Put/Call .96 +6.67%
  • NYSE Arms .93 -13.1%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 55.50 -.58%
  • America Energy Sector High-Yield CDS Index 486.0 +1.06%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 59.97 -1.7%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 130.75 +1.0 basis point
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 70.71 -1.6%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 201.17 -.29%
  • iBoxx Offshore RMB China Corporate High Yield Index 166.69 +.01%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 4.75 +.25 basis point
  • TED Spread 30.5 -4.25 basis points
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap -20.25 -2.5 basis points
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 66.04 +.42%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 1.66% unch.
  • Yield Curve .17+1.0 basis point
  • China Iron Ore Spot 82.69 USD/Metric Tonne +.18%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index 8.0 -.2 point
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index -67.0 +1.8 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index -19.60 unch.
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 1.60 +2.0 basis points
  • 91.3% chance of Fed rate cut at Dec. 11th meeting, 94.0% chance of cut at Jan. 29th meeting
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +37 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -9 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +12 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Slightly Lower: On losses in my industrial/tech sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: None
  • Market Exposure: 100% Net Long

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