Monday, March 24, 2025

Stocks Surging into Final Hour on US Economic Data, Diminished Tariff Worries, Short-Covering, Tech/Financial Sector Strength

  Broad Equity Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line: Substantially Higher
  • Sector Performance: Almost Every Sector Rising
  • Volume: Around Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • Volatility(VIX) 18.0 -6.6%
  • S&P 500 Intraday % Swing .79 +4.4%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk On/Risk Off Index 76.5 +3.2%
  • Euro/Yen Carry Return Index 182.1 -.7%
  • Emerging Markets Currency Volatility(VXY) 8.44 +.7%
  • CBOE S&P 500 Implied Correlation Index 21.2 -8.3% 
  • ISE Sentiment Index 125.0 -5.0 points
  • Total Put/Call .78 -7.1%
  • NYSE Arms .98 +1.0%
  • NYSE Non-Block Money Flow +$199.2M 
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 57.0 -4.4%
  • US Energy High-Yield OAS 341.2 -4.3%
  • Bloomberg TRACE # Distressed Bonds Traded 224.0 +2.0
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 63.2 -2.9%
  • Deutsche Bank Subordinated 5Y Credit Default Swap 144.7 -2.0%
  • Italian/German 10Y Yld Spread 110.0 basis points -1.0 basis point
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 76.7 -1.7%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 180.5 -2.3%
  • Israel Sovereign CDS 87.7 +1.4%
  • China Corp. High-Yield Bond USD ETF(KHYB) 24.3 unch.
  • 2-Year SOFR Swap Spread -18.0 basis points -1.5 basis points
  • 3M T-Bill Treasury Repo Spread 0.0 basis point unch.
  • 3-Month EUR/USD Cross-Currency Basis Swap 0.0 -.25 basis point
  • MBS  5/10 Treasury Spread 138.0 +2.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg CMBS Investment Grade Bbb Average OAS 601.0 -1.0 basis point
  • Avg. Auto ABS OAS 58.0 unch.
Economic Gauges:
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.9 -.06%
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield 4.29% unch.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 102.0 USD/Metric Tonne -.2%
  • Dutch TTF Nat Gas(European benchmark) 42.8 euros/megawatt-hour +.3%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index -2.5 +2.6 points
  • Citi Eurozone Economic Surprise Index 32.2 +9.2 points
  • Citi Emerging Markets Economic Surprise Index 4.7 -1.0 point
  • S&P 500 Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(13 of 500 reporting) +8.4% unch.
  • S&P 500 Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 277.83 +.25:  Growth Rate +12.8% +.1 percentage point, P/E 20.7 +.4
  • S&P 500 Current Year Estimated Profit Margin 13.55% -1.0 basis point
  • NYSE FANG+ Current Quarter EPS Growth Rate YoY(0 of 10 reporting) n/a
  • NYSE FANG+ Blended Forward 12 Months Mean EPS Estimate 412.86 +.55: Growth Rate +19.4% +.2 percentage point, P/E 29.7 +.8
  • Bloomberg US Financial Conditions Index .30 +2.0 basis points
  • Bloomberg Euro-Zone Financial Conditions Index 1.38 -5.0 basis points
  • US Yield Curve 29.0 basis points (2s/10s) -1.25 basis points
  • US Atlanta Fed GDPNow Q1 Forecast -1.76% unch.
  • US Recession Within 6 Months Probability(3M/18M Forward Yld Curve Spread) 35.1% -1.7 percentage points
  • Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast Core PCE YoY +2.60% unch.: CPI YoY +2.46% unch.
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.36 +3.0 basis points
  • Highest target rate probability for June 18th FOMC meeting: 58.6% (-8.7 percentage points) chance of 4.5%-4.25%. Highest target rate probability for July 30th meeting: 49.1%(+2.4 percentage points) chance of 4.0%-4.25%. (current target rate is 4.25-4.5%)
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei 225 Futures: Indicating +203 open in Japan 
  • China A50 Futures: Indicating -32 open in China
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +250 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On gains in my tech/financial/consumer discretionary/industrial/utility sector longs
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered some of my (IWM)/(QQQ) hedges
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long

Bear Radar

Style Underperformer:

  • Large-Cap Value 1.2%
Sector Underperformers:
  • 1) Agriculture -.5% 2) Pharma +.1% 3) Foods +.2%
Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume: 
  • MNSO, ERJ, LSPD, JKS, SCHL, PHH, ZIM and RGC
Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
  • 1) WEN 2) EXE 3) WMB 4) AM 5) WW
Stocks With Most Negative News Mentions:
  • 1) MODV 2) MRK 3) MRVI 4) VG 5) NKE
Sector ETFs With Most Negative Money Flow:
  • 1) XLI 2) KRE 3) XAR 4) XLE 5) XLK

Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

  • Mid-Cap Growth +2.6%
Sector Outperformers:
  • 1) Semis +3.2% 2) Networking +3.1% 3) Construction +2.8%
Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
  • AZEK, MARA, IONQ, TEM, OKLO, VSAT, COHR, ROOT, TSLA, HOOD, CVNA, W, HIMS, GAP, BROS, APP, SHOO, LMND, MSTR, CPRX, AMD, LZMH, KRUS, GLNG, TREE, RDDT, RH, BBIO, QXO, MAG, CAVA, GRPN, HQY, UAL, LIND, DECK, OUST, SHOP, FDX, HROW, VTS, DRI, PLTR, PVH, UPST, CARS, SOFI, RPD, RL, NUE, GENI, DOCS, FCX, AHCO, NVEE, LIF, ATRO, SKYW, CELH, SKYW, NVMI, ARES, CE, DLTR, CYTK, FWRG, ANAB, CENTA, RUSHA, GSHD, META, FRT, ALNY, TITN, ERO, BWIN, TREX, CRH, SN, BRDG and ENTG
Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
  • 1) CE 2) NAK 3) CG 4) AMDL 5) GBTC
Stocks With Most Positive News Mentions:
  • 1) TNXP 2) TSLA 3) AZEK 4) COHR 5) LUNR
Sector ETFs With Most Positive Money Flow:
  • 1) XLF 2) OIH 3) XBI 4) SMH 5) IYF
Charts:

Tomorrow's Earnings/Economic Releases of Note; Market Movers

Earnings of Note 
Company/Estimate 

Before the Open:
  • (CSIQ)/-.09
  • (MKC)/.64
After the Close: 
  • (GME)/.08
  • (WOR)/.70
Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
  • They Philly Fed Non-Manufacturing Activity Index for March.
9:00 am EST
  • The FHFA House Price Index MoM for Jan. is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.4% gain in Dec.
  • The S&P CoreLogic CS 20-City MoM SA for Jan. is estimated to rise +.3% versus a +.4% gain in Dec.

10:00 am EST

  • New Home Sales for Feb. is estimated to rise to 680K versus 657K in Jan.
  • Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index for March is estimated to fall to 93.9 versus 98.3 in Feb.
  • The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index for March is estimated to fall to 2.0 versus 6.0 in Feb.

Upcoming Splits

  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Williams speaking, Fed's Kuglar speaking, M2 Money Supply MoM for Feb., weekly US retail sales reports, weekly API crude oil stock report, 2Y T-Note auction,  and the UBS Energy/Utilities Conference could also impact global trading tomorrow.
US Equity Market Hours
  • 9:30 am - 4:00 pm EST

Mid-Day Market Internals

NYSE Composite Index:

  • Volume Running -6.3% Below 100-Day Average 
  • Nasdaq/NYSE Volume Ratio 13.9 +1.8
  • 0 Sectors Declining, 11 Sectors Rising
  • 84.5% of Issues Advancing, 14.2% Declining 
  • TRIN/Arms 1.05 +8.3%
  • Non-Block Money Flow +$357.9M
  • n/a New 52-Week Highs, n/a New Lows
  • 42.1% (+8.4%) of Issues Above 200-day Moving Average
  • Average 14-Day RSI 52.8 +2.2
Other:
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk-Off Index 76.3 +3.1%
  • Bloomberg Cyclicals/Defensives Index 239.3 +1.4%
  • Russell 1000: Growth/Value 19,884.6 +.6%
  • CNN Fear & Greed Index 28.0 (FEAR) +6
  • 1-Day Vix 11.5 -30.9%
  • Vix 18.2 -5.7%
  • Total Put/Call .71 -15.5%

Sunday, March 23, 2025

Monday Watch

Today's Headlines

Zero Hedge: 
Fox News:
TheGatewayPundit.com:

The Epoch Times:

Around X:
  • @elonmusk
  • @OliLondonTV
  • @WallStreetApes
  • The Elon Musk Tesla protests ARE PAID. Watch as these protesters pick through a pile of pre-made signs provided to them. This is all BEING FUNDED by Democrat donors and activist NGO groups. We demand investigations and accountability into the money trail. (video)
  • ER Nurse in Aurora, Colorado says if you are against ICE mass deportations, you don’t know what being a victim of illegal immigrants looks like. “I have seen personally in the ER: (video) 
  • Victor Davis Hanson talks about how California Democrat politicians amass UNBELIEVABLE wealth, “but their policies made sure that people where I live can't buy a house”. “Nancy Pelosi, Barbara Boxer, Dianne Feinstein, Kamala Harris, Jerry Brown, Gavin Newsom. They're all from the same place. They're all from the same class. They're all very wealthy. They all have estates, cabin's living in a $9 million home. Jerry's got a big Grass Valley estate. Feinstein had one of the most beautiful homes of Tahoe, Barbara Boxer's at Rancho Mirage.” (video)
  • Canada healthcare is horrifying. “My MRI to see if I have a brain tumor is in 2026. It's March 2025 right now”. “If you thought this was bad, it's actually worse than you thought. Because the appointment where we decided that I need this MRI was in December of last year. So it's not like it's 10 months from now. It's 13 months. It's a 13 month wait to see if I have a brain tumor”. (video)
  • @ItsJulliansRum
  • @MarioNawfal
  • @BigFish3000
  • @LeadingReport
  • BREAKING: HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has unveiled an online tool that allows users to search for chemical contaminants in their food and other products.
  • @amuse
  • @MilaLovesJoe
  • @OcrazioCornPop
  • @TonySeruga
  • @RealHickory
  • @ShadowofEzra
Night Trading
  • Asian indices are +.25% to +.75% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 77.5 +1.0 basis point.
  • China Sovereign CDS 52.0 +2.5 basis points.
  • China Iron Ore Spot 100.3 USD/Metric Tonne +.3%.
  • Bloomberg Emerging Markets Currency Index 36.9 -.01%.
  • Bloomberg Global Risk-On/Risk Off Index 74.4 +.3%.
  • Volatility Index(VIX) futures 18.9 -2.4%. 
  • Euro Stoxx 50 futures +.28%.
  • S&P 500 futures +.61%.
  • NASDAQ 100 futures +.76%.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and financial shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly higher and to maintain gains into the afternoon.  The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the week.

Saturday, March 22, 2025

Today's Headlines

Zerohedge:
WSJ.com:   

CNBC:

MarketWatch.com:  

NewsMax:       

Fox News:

TheGatewayPundit.com: 

Epoch Times:

Around X:
  • @elonmusk
  • @LauraLoomer
  • @amuse
  • @BehizyTweets
  • @DC_Draino 
  • Remember when CNN just magically happened to be at Roger Stone’s house when it was raided early AM by the FBI? Wonder how they got that tip. And how they knew to livestream Trump’s Butler PA rally. Puzzle pieces starting to connect.
  • @EricLDaugh
  • @MilaLovesJoe
  • @nataliegwinters 
  • @charliekirk11
  • @TimCast
  • @VigilantFox
  • @LIz_Wheeler
OpenVAERS: 
SKirsch.com: