Weekly Outlook

Click here for Wall St. Week Ahead by Reuters.

Click here for Stocks to Watch Monday by MarketWatch.

There are several economic reports of note and some significant corporate earnings reports scheduled for release this week.

Economic reports for the week include:

Mon. – None of note

Tues. – Weekly retail sales reports, Preliminary 2Q Non-farm Productivity, Preliminary 2Q Unit Labor Costs, Wholesale Inventories, IDB/TIPP Economic Optimism, ABC Consumer Confidence

Wed. – Bloomberg Global Confidence Index, Weekly MBA Mortgage Applications report, Weekly EIA energy inventory report, Trade Deficit, Monthly Budget Statement, FOMC rate decision

Thur. – Import Price Index, Advance Retail Sales, Initial Jobless Claims, Business Inventories

Fri. – Consumer Price Index, Industrial Production, Capacity Utilization, Univ. of Mich. Consumer Confidence

Some of the more noteworthy companies that release quarterly earnings this week are:

Mon. – Dish Network(DISH), Sysco Corp.(SYY), priceline.com(PCLN), Dynegy(DYN), Flour Corp.(FLR), McDermott(MDR)

Tues. – Bob Evans(BOBE), Warnaco Group(WRC), Fossil(FOSL), Dendreon(DNDN), Applied Materials(AMAT)

Wed. – Liz Claiborne(LIZ), Advance Auto Parts(AAP), Macy’s(M), Sara Lee(SLE), Ethan Allen(ETH)

Thur. – Royal Gold(RGLD), Urban Outfitters(URBN), Dr Pepper Snapple(DPS), Wal-Mart(WMT), Kohl’s(KSS), Nordstrom(JWN), Estee Lauder(EL), DeVry(DV), Autodesk(ADSK)

Fri. – Abercrombie & Fitch(ANF), JCPenney(JCP)

Other events that have market-moving potential this week include:

Mon. – Pacific Crest Tech Forum

Tue. – Pacific Crest Tech Forum, CanaccordAdams Growth Conference, Oppenheimer Communications/Tech/Internet Conference, Morgan Keegan Security/Safety/Defense Conference, Morgan Keegan Tech Conference, Jeffries Industrial Summit

Wed. – CanaccordAdams Growth Conference, Oppenheimer Communications/Tech/Internet Conference, Jeffries Industrial Summit

Thur. – (ERIC) investor relations forum, (ATV) general meeting, CanaccordAdams Growth Conference, UBS Engineering & Construction Conference, (MF) shareholders meeting, (MDCI) shareholders meeting, (RHT) shareholders meeting, (QSII) shareholders meeting

Fri. – None of note

BOTTOM LINE: I expect US stocks to finish the week mixed as less financial sector pessimism, diminishing economic fear, declining commercial real estate worries, investment manager performance anxiety and mostly positive earnings reports offset more shorting, Chinese asset bubble concerns, healthcare reform worries, profit-taking and higher long-term rates. My trading indicators are giving bullish signals and the Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the week.

Market Week in Review

S&P 500 1,010.48 +2.33%*

Click here for the Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com.

*5-Day Change

Weekly Scoreboard*

Indices
S&P 500 1,010.48 +2.33%
DJIA 9,370.07 +2.16%
NASDAQ 2,000.25 +1.10%
Russell 2000 572.40 +2.82%
Wilshire 5000 10,320.97 +2.60%
Russell 1000 Growth 443.53 +1.08%
Russell 1000 Value 522.39 +4.0%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 597.17 +2.23%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 721.85 +5.66%
Morgan Stanley Technology 498.78 +1.15%
Transports 3,749.58 +4.74%
Utilities 371.22 +.47%
MSCI Emerging Markets 36.43 +1.36%

Sentiment/Internals
NYSE Cumulative A/D Line +49,328 +7.26%
Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index +135 -42.06%
Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 22.0 +57.14%
CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position +34,145 +646.18%

CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,202,598 +2.47%
Total Put/Call .73 -9.88%
OEX Put/Call 1.61 -18.69%
ISE Sentiment 133.0 -6.34%
NYSE Arms .85 +10.39%
Volatility(VIX) 24.76 -4.47%
G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 13.41 +4.85%
Smart Money Flow Index 8,676.95 +.96%
AAII % Bulls 50.0 +4.89%
AAII % Bears 35.16 +11.97%

Futures Spot Prices
CRB Index 264.77 +2.84%

Crude Oil 70.93 +2.06%
Reformulated Gasoline 200.81 -.19%
Natural Gas 3.67 +.68%
Heating Oil 191.22 +4.58%
Gold 959.50 +.27%
Base Metals 178.61 +4.49%
Copper 278.55 +5.97%

US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 221.67 USD/Ton unch.

China Hot Rolled Domestic Steel Sheet 4,420 +5.74%

Agriculture 306.63 +.60 %

Economy
ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index 121.80 +1.92%

Citi US Economic Surprise Index +55.50 +79.61%

Fed Fund Futures imply 55.0% chance of no change, 45.0% chance of 25 basis point cut on 8/12

US Dollar Index 78.98 +.80%

Yield Curve 255.0 +18 basis points

10-year US Treasury Yield 3.85% +37 basis points

U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 28.0 -6.67%

10-year TIPS Spread 2.01% +24 basis points
TED Spread 29.0 -1 basis points
N. Amer. Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 106.81 -3.33%

Euro Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 80.31 +9.77%
Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 298.10 -9.17%
CMBS Super Senior AAA 10-year Treasury Spread 477.0 -8.97%

Business Loans 730.40 -.99%
4-Wk MA of Jobless Claims 555,300 -.80%

Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 4.7% unch.
Average 30-year Mortgage Rate 5.22% -3 basis points
Weekly Mortgage Applications 517,300 +4.42%

ABC Consumer Confidence -49 -4.26%
Weekly Retail Sales -5.60%
Nationwide Gas $2.63 /gallon +.11/gallon
US Cooling Demand Next 7 Days 22.0% above normal
Baltic Dry Index 2,907 -15.62%

Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to US Gulf Coast) 27.0 unch.

Rail Freight Carloads 193,684 +.18%

Iraqi 2028 Govt Bonds 68.67 +2.02%

Best Performing Style
Mid-cap Value +5.51%

Worst Performing Style
Small-cap Growth +.87%

Leading Sectors
REITs +15.73%
Banks +12.39%

Airlines +11.34%
Homebuilders +8.83%
Steel +8.30%

Lagging Sectors
Oil Service -.73%
HMOs -1.68%
Telecom -2.08%
Semis -2.14%
Biotech -2.30%

One-Week High-Volume Gainers

One-Week High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change

Stocks Finish Higher, Boosted by Disk Drive, Bank, Insurance, Construction, Homebuilding, Gaming and Transportation Shares

Evening Review
Market Summary
Top 20 Biz Stories
Today’s Movers
Market Performance Summary
WSJ Data Center
Sector Performance
ETF Performance
Style Performance
Commodity Futures
S&P 500 Gallery View
Timely Economic Charts
GuruFocus.com
PM Market Call
After-hours Commentary
After-hours Movers
After-hours Real-Time Stock Bid/Ask
After-hours Stock Quote
After-hours Stock Chart
In Play

Stocks Jumping on Less Economic Fear, Diminishing Healthcare Reform Worries, Technical Buying, Short-Covering

BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is higher into the final hour on gains in my Technology longs, Gaming longs, Financial longs, Medical longs and Biotech longs. I have not traded today, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market is positive as the advance/decline line is substantially higher, almost every sector is rising and volume is above average. Investor anxiety is high. Today’s overall market action is bullish. The VIX is falling 4.44% and is high at 24.56. The ISE Sentiment Index is below average at 122.0 and the total put/call is slightly below average at .71. Finally, the NYSE Arms has been running below average most of the day, hitting .53 at its intraday trough, and is currently .90. The Euro Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index is falling .44% today to 80.31 basis points. This index is down from its record March 10th high of 208.75. The North American Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index is falling 3.77% to 106.81 basis points. This index is also well below its Dec. 5^th record high of 285.99. The TED spread is falling 1.72% to 29 basis points. The TED spread is now down 437 basis points since its all-time high of 463 basis points on October 10th. The 2-year swap spread is rising 5.77% to 47.0 basis points. The Libor-OIS spread is falling 1.55% to 26 basis points. The 10-year TIPS spread, a good gauge of inflation expectations, is up 10 basis points to 2.0%, which is down 66 basis points since July 7th. The 3-month T-Bill is yielding .17%, which is unch. today. Cyclical and Small-cap shares are substantially outperforming the averages today on the better-than-expected jobs report. The transports are blasting 4.2% higher. US dollar strength in the face of this report is a big positive and may indicate another change in trend. On the negative side, the Semis are lower on the day and select market leaders are displaying relative weakness. As well, I am hearing rising worries over the true state of China’s economy. Nikkei futures indicate an +288 open in Japan and DAX futures indicate a -5 open in Germany on Monday. I expect US stocks to trade mixed-to-lower into the close from current levels on profit-taking, more shorting, China worries and rising long-term rates.