Tuesday, March 23, 2010

Today's Headlines


Bloomberg:

  • States Sue to Block Health Care Reform as Illegal. Thirteen states filed a lawsuit challenging the constitutionality of the health-care overhaul signed by U.S. President Barack Obama, said Bill McCollum, Florida’s attorney general. The states claim the legislation, signed today, places a fiscal burden on their cash-strapped budgets with an expansion of state-run Medicaid. The lawsuit seeks to bar enforcement of the healthcare legislation while the case proceeds in federal court in Pensacola, Florida. Also joining Florida in the lawsuit were Alabama, Colorado, Idaho, Louisiana, Michigan, Nebraska, Pennsylvania, South Carolina, South Dakota, Texas, Utah, and Washington. A copy of the complaint was posted on the Florida attorney general’s Web site. “Florida will not permit the constitutional rights of our citizens and the sovereignty of our state to be ignored or disregarded,” McCollum said in a statement.
  • Germany, France Back IMF Aid to Greece, Official Says. Germany and France have agreed to back International Monetary Fund aid for Greece, a German Finance Ministry official said, signaling a joint position after weeks of dispute over how to resolve the Greek crisis. Germany and France, the euro region’s two biggest economies, are now pulling together before a two-day EU summit in Brussels beginning March 25, the official said on condition of anonymity.
  • U.S. Economy: Sales of Existing Homes Decrease, Supply Climbs. Sales of existing U.S. homes fell in February for a third month, and the number of properties on the market climbed by the most in almost two years, casting a pall over the prospects for a recovery. Purchases dropped 0.6 percent to a 5.02 million annual rate, the lowest level in eight months, figures from the National Association of Realtors showed today in Washington. There were 3.59 million houses for sale, a 312,000 increase from January that marked the biggest gain since April 2008. The median price of a previously owned house decreased 1.8 percent to $165,100 from $168,200 a year ago, today’s report showed. The number of homes on the market jumped 9.5 percent, pushing the time it would take to sell all properties at the current sales pace up to 8.6 months from 7.8 months at the end of January. The increase in supply last month was “unusual” and “discomforting,” Lawrence Yun, the Realtors’ chief economist, said in a news conference. The jump may be caused by more distressed properties coming on the market, particularly condominiums, and by trade-up buyers who are now putting their houses up for sale before purchasing another property, he said. If inventories exceed a 10-months’ supply, it would lead to larger price declines and signal the housing slump was not over, he said.
  • Junk Defaults May Swell in 2011 as Debt Matures, Moody's Says. Defaults in Asia may rise next year as speculative-grade companies struggle to refinance maturing U.S. dollar debt, according to Moody’s Investors Service. The dollar bond refunding requirement in 2012 for high- yield companies in Asia is “concentrated among single-B issuers typically characterized as having limited financial flexibility,” Elizabeth Allen, a Moody’s vice president, wrote in a note to clients today. Debt maturing in 2011 and 2012 will be “higher than the historical average, indicating this will be a challenging issue after 2010.”
  • Leveraged Buyout Revival Seen in Default Swaps: Credit Markets. Credit-default swaps tied to the bonds of borrowers from Computer Sciences Corp. to Lubrizol Corp. are rising on speculation that leveraged buyouts will accelerate, saddling takeover targets with added debt. “Private-equity shops do have quite a bit of money on the sidelines,” said Mikhail Foux, a New York-based credit strategist at Citigroup Inc.
  • Gold May Fall to $1,074, Commerzbank Says: Technical Analysis.
  • Gold May Drop to $1,030 as Dollar Favored, GFMS Analytics Says. Gold may decline to $1,030 an ounce in the next few weeks as sovereign debt problems in Europe prompt investors to favor the dollar as an asset of “first resort,” GFMS Analytics Ltd. said.
  • Importers Defer Buying as Sugar Drops to 8-Month Low. Sugar buyers in India, the world’s biggest consumer, and other importers will probably defer purchases until prices stabilize after falling to an eight-month low, according to broker Sucden India Pvt. Sugar has tumbled 41 percent from a 29-year high of 30.4 cents per pound on Feb. 1 amid bets that global production will rebound after rain and drought cut output in Brazil and India. Al Khaleej Sugar Co., the world’s largest refiner, hasn’t increased sales as buyers may be waiting for even lower prices, according to General Manager Cyrus Raja. Waning demand may push down prices before cane harvesting next month in Brazil, the biggest producer, and reduce costs for importers from Egypt to Pakistan. Output in the Center South of Brazil, the largest growing area, will climb about 12 percent to 34.7 million tons next season, FCStone Group Inc. said March 15.
  • Google(GOOG) Exit Reminds Companies Asia Strategy Is Not Just China. Google Inc.’s retreat from China, where U.S. executives say the business climate is becoming less welcoming, may hasten moves by foreign companies to look beyond the world’s fastest-growing major economy for expansion in Asia. Google rerouted its Chinese Web site and today began directing traffic to Hong Kong, fulfilling a pledge to stop censoring searches as required by China. The move follows an American Chamber of Commerce report released in Beijing yesterday that said some U.S. businesses are losing Chinese sales because of rules to support home-grown technology. While China still “is the biggest game in town,” more recently “I see a lot of U.S. companies looking for alternatives,” Susan Schwab, U.S. Trade Representative between 2006 and 2009, said in an interview in Hong Kong last week.
  • Gregg Aims to Use Health-Care Bill to Stir Town-Hall Backlash. Senator Judd Gregg, who will lead Republican efforts to block a bill revising health-care legislation, said he’s aiming to spark an election-year backlash against Democrats that will rival the town-hall meetings that almost sank the measure last year. With the latest legislative fight expected to begin today, Gregg said Republicans will submit a host of amendments to the reconciliation bill, which the House approved on March 21 along with a broad health-care measure and sent to the Senate. Senate Democrats say they hope to finish this week. Gregg has other ideas, saying his goal is to force changes in the reconciliation bill. That would require the House to vote again on the bill, perhaps after a two-week Easter recess beginning March 26, during which Democrats could get an earful from voters, keeping the issue alive during this year’s congressional elections. “It will make last August look like a love fest,” Gregg, 63, said in an interview, referring to the town-hall meetings where constituents protested President Barack Obama’s plans for the biggest U.S. health overhaul in 45 years. “The only issue between now and the next election will be the repeal of it,” said Gregg, of New Hampshire, the top Republican on the Budget Committee. “Every election will turn on it. There will be nothing else.” Senator Ben Nelson, a Nebraska Democrat who voted for the broad health-care bill, gave the Republicans a boost yesterday when he said he couldn’t support the reconciliation measure. He cited student-loan provisions that amount to a “government takeover” of student lending, he said in a statement.
  • Euro May Drop to $1.25 as Greece Woes Persist, Nordvig Says. The euro may fall as low as $1.25 by year-end as Greece’s fiscal crisis drives investors from the region, said Nomura Holdings Inc.’s Jens Nordvig. “The continued uncertainty about the resolution is triggering a medium term asset allocation shift away from euros,” Nordvig, a managing director of currency research at Nomura Securities International in New York, said during a Bloomberg Radio interview. “It’s the longer-term players that are changing how they invest in the euro zone.”
Wall Street Journal:
  • Ford(F) on Course to Sell Volvo to Geely.
  • Start-up Turns Sugar Beets Into Alternative to Gasoline. A biofuels start-up, working with oil giant Royal Dutch Shell PLC, has begun turning sugar beets into a gasoline substitute compatible with existing engines and pipelines. Virent Energy Systems Inc. is expected to say Tuesday that its process of converting plants into liquid fuels is working at a 10,000-gallon-a-year pilot site in Madison, Wisc. "At today's crude-oil and biomass costs, our process is competitive," says Lee Edwards, Virent's chief executive.
  • 'Sarah Palin's Alaska' Goes to Discovery. The Discovery Channel is expected to announce a reality television deal with Sarah Palin, in which the former Alaska governor will highlight her home state, Variety reports.
Fox News:
  • Greek Bank Reportedly Had $1.3 Bln of CDS. Greece's state-controlled Hellenic Post Bank bought around 950 million euros ($1.28 billion) of credit default swaps on the country's debt in August, according to a report in newspaper Kathimerini. The bank's management sold the CDS in December, when the spread on five-year Greek bonds over the German bund had widened to 2.35 percentage points from 1.35 percentage points, the newspaper said. It added the bank made a profit of around 35 million euros on the transaction, the report said, citing documents seen by the newspaper.
Business Insider:
zerohedge:
AppleInsider:
Rasmussen Reports:
  • 49% Support State Lawsuits Against Health Care Plan. Forty-nine percent (49%) of U.S. voters favor their state suing the federal government to fight the requirement in the new national health care plan that every American must obtain health insurance. A new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey of likely voters finds that 37% disagree and oppose their state suing to challenge that requirement.
Politico:
  • After Health Care, a Climate Bill Push. Disagreement among Senate Democrats is slowing progress on the climate bill – even as supporters push to move forward with a proposal this week. Sens. John Kerry (D-Mass.), Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) and Joe Lieberman (I-Conn.) have been working overtime to move a draft of their climate bill forward before the Senate leaves for recess at the end of the week.
Real Clear Politics:
Il Messaggero:
  • Former European Commission President Romano Prodi said the euro will be damaged if Greece is forced to seek a bailout from the International Monetary Fund instead of the European Union, citing an editorial.
Financial Post:
  • U.S. Faces Possible US$52B Tax Hike. Not only is the cost of doing business in the United States set to rise with the passing of Barack Obama's health-care reform bill, but the expense for taxpayers may also be higher than anticipated. With an additional 32 million Americans expected to eventually receive health insurance coverage, much of the price tag will be paid by businesses. The U.S. Chamber of Commerce, which criticized the bill for saddling an already burdened corporate America with additional costs, noted that it will lead to US$52-billion in new taxes on companies as a result of the requirement that more employees be covered by insurance. At the same time, the organization said the legislation creates 16,500 new jobs in the Internal Revenue Service. "The House made a wrong and unfortunate decision that ignores the will of the American people," said Thomas Donohue, the Chamber's chief executive. "It will drive up health-care costs and make coverage less affordable for businesses and families.... It will further expand entitlements and explode the deficit, and raises taxes by a half a trillion dollars at the worst possible time." Construction equipment giant Caterpillar Inc., for example, estimates its insurance costs will rise by US$100-million, or 20%, in the first year alone. "We can ill-afford cost increases that place us at a disadvantage versus our global competitors," Gregory Folley, the company's vice-president and chief human resources officer, said in a recent letter to House leaders. "We are disappointed that efforts at reform have not addressed the cost concerns we've raised throughout the year." Most key provisions of the healthcare reform bill do not take effect until 2014. Meantime, the regulations that govern these changes will need to be drafted. There will also be two election cycles before then, which could affect what is ultimately implemented. Business will not be alone paying, so will taxpayers. "They passed this bill, but it's not done yet," said Andrew Busch, global currency strategist at BMO Capital Markets in Chicago. "There is still quite a bit to change." The reconciliation bill's price tag is lower at US$875-billion over 10 years, but it includes heftier subsidies to lower-income groups at the expense of higher taxes. The potential changes by Senate parliamentarians will depend on what they feel directly affects the budget. If the Senate makes any changes to this "side-car" bill, the House would need to vote on it again before it is sent to the President for signing. Calling the CBO's US$138-billion estimate "false advertising" and the reform terminology a "misnomer," Citigroup Inc. health-care analyst Charles Boorady said the bill will result in an additional US$1-trillion in U.S. health-care spending over the next 10 years. One the biggest assumptions included in the bill is more than US$400-billion in Medicare savings over the next decade. "I don't think Congress has any kind of history with reducing Medicare spending-- ever," Mr. Busch said. "I can't envision that they'll be able to cut spending for Medicare and send it over to another portion of the bill. It just doesn't seem to make any sense."

Bear Radar


Style Underperformer:

Large-Cap Growth (-.04%)

Sector Underperformers:
Hospitals (-1.37%), REITs (-1.04%) and HMOs (-.62%)

Stocks Falling on Unusual Volume:
CBL, NLY, FCFS, LINE, PLCM, SYNA, VSAT, GOOG, INSU, MDSO, BEC and ESE

Stocks With Unusual Put Option Activity:
1) SD 2) APC 3) CCL 4) GGP 5) MDT

Bull Radar


Style Outperformer:

Large-Cap Value (+.02%)

Sector Outperformers:
Steel (+2.53%), Computer Hardware (+.88%) and Agriculture (+.48%)

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:
TIE, CLF, MPWR, MRVL, PNR, PFE, RDN, BID, AGO, AN, AGAM, CTEL, PRGO, LOPE, GIVN, CISG, AMSC, HUSA, SHOO, EXLS, BCSI, EZCH, PLCE, STX, SNDK, SPWRB, TTEK, LRCX, TGI, PZJ, REV, AOS, RCL, CUK and BKD

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:
1)
TIE 2) LEN 3) FLEX 4) DO 5) SLXP

Tuesday Watch


Evening Headlines

Bloomberg:
  • Greek Stalemate Deepens as Trichet Rejects Loan 'Subsidy' Call. Europe’s stalemate over possible aid for debt-encumbered Greece deepened as European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet spoke out against offering low- interest loans for which the Greek government has pressed. Trichet’s demand for stringent terms and German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s push for sanctions against nations that breach deficit limits heightened the chance that Greece will leave a March 25-26 summit empty-handed. That could force Prime Minister George Papandreou to decide whether he’s ready to fulfill his threat and turn instead to the International Monetary Fund. “There shouldn’t be any subsidy element, no concessionary element” in a potential loan to Greece, Trichet told lawmakers in Brussels yesterday. Merkel said in Berlin that there’s no need for European Union leaders to make any “concrete decisions” on Greek aid this week.
  • Biggs Says Stocks Have 'Momentum,' May Rise Another 10%: Video. Barton Biggs, managing partner at Traxis Partners LLC, talks with Bloomberg’s Matt Miller and Carol Massar about the outlook for the U.S. stock market.
  • Texas Beats Other States Out of Recession, Comerica Report Says.
  • AIG Chief Benmosche Nominated to Credit Suisse Board. American International Group Inc. Chief Executive Officer Robert Benmosche was nominated to rejoin the board of Credit Suisse Group AG seven months after he stepped down as a director of the Swiss bank.
  • Health-Care Cost Lies Make Us Sing the Blues: Amity Shlaes. Everyone knows the bill will widen deficits over time. Entitlement and mandate expansions always do. And everyone knows that health-care reform isn’t about fiscal rectitude.
Wall Street Journal:
  • Sallie Mae(SLM) Says Lending Policy Changes Will Cost 2,500 Jobs. Student lender SLM Corp. (SLM) said Monday that changes approved by the U.S. House of Representatives on Sunday that will end federal funding to student lenders will lead it to cut more than a quarter of its workers and shutter the majority of its locations nationwide. In an emailed statement, the lender, best known as Sallie Mae, said, "The student loan provisions buried in the health-care legislation intentionally eliminate private sector jobs at a time when our country can least afford to lose them. We are profoundly disappointed that thousands of student loan originators will soon lose their jobs to less-experienced Washington, D.C., bureaucrats, although the Senate has the power to change this." Spokeswoman Martha Holler said in an email that the company estimates at this point it will have to cut 2,500 of its 8,600 current employees and expects to operate about five to seven locations, down from the 25 it runs now.
  • U.S. Aims to Bolster Overseas Fight Against Cybercime. The alleged Chinese cyber attacks on Google(GOOG) have spurred proposals at the State Department and on Capitol Hill to establish an ambassador-level cybersecurity post and to tie foreign aid to a country's ability to police cybercrime.
BusinessWeek.com:
  • States Say They'll Challenge Health Bill for Costs, Mandate. President Barack Obama is bumping up against a revolt over the health-care overhaul and its expansion of state-run Medicaid, with 12 states challenging its constitutionality in lawsuits to be filed once he signs it. Florida, Texas and Pennsylvania are among the states claiming the legislation places a fiscal burden on their cash- strapped budgets, according to statements by state attorneys general. The health-care overhaul will make as many as 15 million more Americans eligible for Medicaid nationwide starting in 2014 and will cost the states billions to administer. States faced with unprecedented declines in tax collections already are cutting benefits and payments to hospitals and doctors in Medicaid, the health program for the poor paid jointly by state and U.S. governments. The costs to hire staff and plan for the average 25 percent increase in Medicaid rolls may swamp state budgets, said Toby Douglas, who manages California’s Medicaid program. “We face enormous challenges just sustaining our existing program,” said Douglas, whose state has not joined the lawsuits, in a March 18 telephone interview. “I just don’t see states having the capacity to move forward on these changes in this environment.” For California, with a $20 billion budget deficit, the extra load will cost at least an additional $2 billion to $3 billion annually, said Douglas, chief deputy director for California’s health care programs.
  • Corporate Balance Sheets Show Surprising Strength. Despite a harsh recession and alluringly low interest rates, many companies have shrunk debt and other obligations over the past yea.
CNBC:
IBD:
Business Insider:
zerohedge:
Forbes:
Huffington Post:
  • Why Fannie Mae, Freddie Mac Continue To Cost US Taxpayers Billions. Of all the companies bailed out by the federal government, mortgage finance giants Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are shaping up as the deepest money pits. A close look at their past and recent financial filings shows why their losses continue to mount. Fannie and Freddie effectively became wards of the government in 2008. The Obama administration had promised to reveal its plans for the agencies last month, but Washington's focus on reforming the banking system pushed them to the bottom of the to-do list. Fannie and Freddie aren't mentioned in either the Senate or House financial regulatory reform bills. Together the two firms have already tapped $125 billion from government lifelines and the Congressional Budget Office predicts they ultimately will drain $380 billion. That would far exceed the final tabs for rescuing the big banks, the automakers or even insurance behemoth American International Group (AIG). "These calls on taxpayer funds are troubling to all of us," Edward J. DeMarco, acting director of the Federal Housing Finance Agency, said in a letter to congressional leaders last month. DeMarco's predecessor at the housing finance agency, Fannie and Freddie's regulator, has acknowledged that taxpayers are unlikely to ever see a full return on their investment.
Politico:
  • Financial Reform Bill Sent to Senate. The Senate Banking Committee approved sweeping financial reform legislation Monday on a party line vote, with Republicans refusing to offer a single amendment, providing a stark reminder that Democrats still have a long way to go to gain essential GOP support. Hopes had been high that financial reform would avoid the partisan rancor that has marked other major legislation atop the White House agenda. But after months of talks with multiple Republican partners, Senate Banking Chairman Chris Dodd still lacks a single GOP vote for his bill.
Real Clear Politics:
  • ObamaCare is Politically Vulnerable. It's an impenetrable labyrinth of new taxes, benefits, and regulations, passed on the narrowest of possible majorities with more than 10% of the Democratic caucus joining every Republican. Even Wile E. Coyote would be embarrassed by its inefficiencies. Still, the thought among its proponents at the moment is that the legislation, once enacted, cannot be repealed. It will have the benefit of our system's strong "status quo bias." Accordingly, expect yesterday's critics of the filibuster to become its valiant defenders should push come to shove. The status quo bias is a very real thing, and it makes the Republican efforts to modify or repeal challenging. The GOP must control the entire government by January, 2013 to enact major changes to the legislation. By then, the thinking goes among proponents, those with a personal stake in preserving the legislation will be in place to protect it, just as seniors have been on guard against raids on Social Security. Yet it's not that simple. The Democrats crammed a $2 trillion bill into a $1 trillion package by delaying the distribution of most benefits for four years, until 2014. This creates two major political vulnerabilities for ObamaCare.
Reuters:
  • Japan Govt to Face Big Fund Shortage in 2011/12 - Nikkei. Japan's government may need to issue more bonds or drop some spending plans as it faces a shortage of up to 7 trillion yen ($78 billion) in funds in the year to March 2012, the Nikkei newspaper reported. An increase in bond issuance would raise the spectre of a cut in Japan's sovereign ratings as the national debt is nearing 200 percent of its gross domestic product, analysts say. Fitch, Moody's and Standard and Poor's have all warned Japan it faces a ratings downgrade, which could raise the borrowing costs for the most indebted of the industralised nations and rattle investors who are already nervous about Greece's debt and the sovereign risk facing other European nations. "The government has said it will launch a fiscal framework this year, and that could be the trigger for a downgrade if it doesn't go well," said Nobuto Yamazaki, executive fund manager at DIAM Asset Management in Tokyo.
  • Google(GOOG) Reroutes China Search, Beijing Lashes Back.
  • Distressed U.S. Home Sales on the Rise. Purchases of homes in or near foreclosure last month hit the highest percentage of total sales since July 2008, indicating a trend that is closely correlated with falling home prices, according to a survey released on Monday. Distressed properties made up 48.1 percent of home purchases in February, according to the Campbell/Inside Mortgage Finance Monthly Survey of Real Estate Market Conditions.The survey, which polls more than 1,500 real estate agents, found distressed sales were as low as 37 percent in November.
Financial Times:
  • Renminbi Reform is Just the Start for China. The friction between Washington and Beijing over exchange rates is about to get a lot worse. On April 15, the US Treasury will issue the first of two semi-annual currency reports, mandated by law since 1988, in which China may be deemed to be manipulating its currency “for the purposes of preventing effective balance of payments adjustments or gaining unfair competitive advantage in international trade”. If China continues to stand firm in the face of US pressure for policy change, the case will almost certainly go to the World Trade Organisation. More to the point, it will become the most prominent of several bilateral spats, in which the US could threaten to impose across-the-board tariffs on Chinese imports and China could threaten to dump holdings of US Treasury bonds. A major economic dispute between the US and China would be in no one’s interest, least of all China’s, but it looks unavoidable for three reasons.
Telegraph:
  • Greece Accuses Germany of 'Squalid Game' in Debt Crisis. Greece has further complicated its chances of an EU rescue package this week, accusing Germany of exploiting the debt crisis to enrich its banks and drive down the euro for global export advantage. "By speculating on Greek bonds and allowing credit institutions to participate in this squalid game, some people are making money," said deputy premier Theodoros Pangalos. "As long as southern Europe is under fire and the euro is falling , they (the Germans) can win massive exports in the rest of the world," he said.
Economic Daily News:
  • Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. lifted its estimate for global semiconductor market output to grow by 22% this year from the previous forecast of an 18% increase, citing Chairman Morris Chang.
Securities Times:
  • Chinese companies owned by the central government with overcapacity will be barred from buying shares in commercial banks, citing an official at the China Banking Regulatory Commission. Steel, cement, shipbuilding and coal were among industries named as having overcapacity.
Haaretz:
  • Netanyahu tells AIPAC: Jerrusalem is no settlement. Jerusalem is not a settlement, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu told thousands of participants at AIPAC's annual conference here on Monday. The prime minister met Monday with U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton in an attempt to put an end to the crisis that began when the report broke of plans to build 1,600 new units in Ramat Shlomo in East Jerusalem two weeks ago during the visit to Israel of U.S. Vice President Joe Biden. Before Netanyahu left for Washington he asked Housing Minister Ariel Atias not to participate in the dedication ceremony for a new neighborhood in Pisgat Ze?ev in East Jerusalem. Netanyahu made the request in light of the recent tensions between Israel and the United States over construction in East Jerusalem. Atias canceled his participation and the festive ceremony, which could have overshadowed Netanyahu?s Washington visit. Netanyahu informed Clinton that the ceremony had been postponed but also said he would not change government policy on construction in East Jerusalem, which has not changed in the 42 years it has been in Israeli hands. Netanyahu is to meet Tuesday evening at the White House with U.S. President Barak Obama.
Evening Recommendations
Citigroup:
  • Reiterated Buy on (CVG), target $15.
Night Trading
  • Asian indices are -.25% to +1.0% on average.
  • Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 103.0 -3.0 basis points.
  • S&P 500 futures +.01%
  • NASDAQ 100 futures -.09%
Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
  • (SCS)/.00
  • (CCL)/.12
  • (KBH)/-.41
  • (WAG)/.71
  • (JBL)/.27
  • (DRI)/.92
  • (ADBE)/.37
Economic Releases
10:00 AM EST
  • Existing Home Sales for February are estimated to fall to 5.0M versus a reading of 5.05M in January.
  • The House Price Index for January is estimated to fall -.8% versus a -1.6% decline in December.
Upcoming Splits
  • None of note
Other Potential Market Movers
  • The Fed's Plosser speaking, Fed's Yellen speaking, Richmond Fed Manufacturing report, Treasury's $44B 2-Year Note Auction, weekly retail sales reports, Treasury's Geithner testifying before the House, (RMBS) Analyst Day, Barclays Healthcare Conference, Howard Weil Energy Conference, ABC consumer confidence reading and the API energy inventory report could also impact trading today.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, boosted by technology and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower and to rally into the afternoon, finishing mixed. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.

Monday, March 22, 2010

Stocks Reversing Higher into Final Hour on Short-Covering, Less Sovereign Debt Angst, Technical Buying


Broad Market Tone:

  • Advance/Decline Line: Higher
  • Sector Performance: Most Sectors Rising
  • Volume: Above Average
  • Market Leading Stocks: Outperforming
Equity Investor Angst:
  • VIX 16.93 -.24%
  • ISE Sentiment Index 131.0 +22.43%
  • Total Put/Call .92 -5.15%
  • NYSE Arms .60 -52.97%
Credit Investor Angst:
  • North American Investment Grade CDS Index 91.47 bps +6.32%
  • European Financial Sector CDS Index 78.66 bps +10.18%
  • Western Europe Sovereign Debt CDS Index 76.72 bps -2.44%
  • Emerging Market CDS Index 223.21 bps +2.52%
  • 2-Year Swap Spread 19.0 bps -1.0 bp
  • TED Spread 15.0 +2.0 bps
Economic Gauges:
  • 3-Month T-Bill Yield .14% -1 bp
  • Yield Curve 269.0 bps -1 bp
  • Copper Days Demand 15.26 days +1.65%
  • Citi US Economic Surprise Index +41.80 +3.4 points
  • 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.20% unch.
Overseas Futures:
  • Nikkei Futures: Indicating -100 open in Japan
  • DAX Futures: Indicating +12 open in Germany
Portfolio:
  • Higher: On strength in my Retail, Medical, Biotech and Tech long positions
  • Disclosed Trades: Covered all my (IWM)(QQQQ) hedges, covered some of my (EEM) short
  • Market Exposure: Moved to 100% Net Long
BOTTOM LINE: Today's overall market action is bullish as the major averages reverse morning losses, despite the recent surge in credit default swaps, China bubble/trade concerns, healthcare reform fears, tax hike worries and Greece bailout concerns. On the positive side, Airline, Gaming, Hospital, Disk Drive, Semi and Computer shares are especially strong, rising 2.0%+. Small-cap and market leading stocks are also outperforming. Despite an equity rally, bounce in the euro and rise in oil, gold is lower on the day, the 10-year yield is down slightly and inflation expectations are stable. On the negative side, I-Bank, Insurance, Oil Service, Energy, Oil Tanker, Coal and Utility stocks are down on the day. Transportation shares are also underperforming. The market's performance today is very impressive, considering the news, its technically overbought state and overseas losses. The passage of this health-care reform package is a huge long-term negative for US stocks and the economy if implemented, in my opinion. However, a lifting of the uncertainty regarding this outcome is likely providing a near-term boost to stocks. The debt situation in Europe continues to bare close monitoring. I expect US stocks to trade mixed-to-higher into the close from current levels on short-covering, less sovereign debt angst and technical buying.