Bull Radar

Style Outperformer:

• Small-Cap Growth (+.81%)

Sector Outperformers:

• Oil Tankers (+2.40%), REITs (+1.98%) and Disk Drives (+1.82%)

Stocks Rising on Unusual Volume:

• AIXG, SPN, CSTR, SVVS, BEXP, INTU, NLC, ASF and DTG
  

Stocks With Unusual Call Option Activity:

• 1) NWL 2) BP 3) POZN 4) CSTR 5) ME
  

Monday Watch

Weekend Headlines
Bloomberg:

• Greece Gets $146 Billion Rescue on EU, IMF Austerity Package. Euro-region ministers agreed to a 110 billion-euro ($146 billion) rescue package for Greece to prevent a default and stop the worst crisis in the currency’s 11-year history from spreading through the rest of the bloc.The first payment will be made before Greece’s next bond redemption on May 19, said Jean-Claude Juncker after chairing a meeting of euro-region finance ministers in Brussels yesterday. The 16-nation bloc will pay 80 billion euros at a rate of around 5 percent and the International Monetary Fund contributes the rest. Greece agreed to budget measures worth 13 percent of gross domestic product. “It’s an ambitious program, it’s austere but it’s absolutely necessary,” Juncker told reporters. Policy makers agreed to the unprecedented bailout after investors’ concerns about a potential Greek default sparked a rout in Portuguese and Spanish bonds last week and sent stock markets tumbling. At stake is the future of the euro 11 years after its creators left control of fiscal policy in national capitals. “The EU can afford to bail-out Greece and even Portugal, but it cannot afford bailing out Spain,” said Andrew Bosomworth, Munich-based head of portfolio management at Pacific Investment Management Co., which oversees the world’s largest mutual fund from Newport Beach, California. “Therefore a lot is resting on getting Greece right.” Germany will provide 28 percent of the euro region’s overall contribution. In return for rescue funds, Greece agreed to measures that the ADEDY civil servants union called “savage.” Greece will cut wages and freeze pensions for three years as well as increase the main sales tax to 23 percent from 21 percent. Rehn indicated that the Greek bailout plan can’t be seen as a blueprint for other euro nations as Greece is a “special case” because of the way previous governments fudged its deficit statistics. At 11.2 percent of GDP, Spain’s budget deficit was the third-highest in the euro region last year and Portugal’s was the fourth-biggest at 9.4 percent.
• Euro Declines on Concern Greece Bailout Won't Halt Debt Crisis. The euro fell from a one-week high against the dollar on concern a 110 billion-euro ($146 billion) bailout package for Greece will fail to contain the region’s sovereign-debt crisis. Europe’s currency also weakened versus 13 of its 16 major counterparts on speculation the European Union will struggle to win agreement from its members on the aid plan for Greece. “While the rescue package is welcome, it remains to be seen if the deal signals a closure to the sovereign debt crisis in the eurozone,” said Philip Wee, senior currency economist at DBS Group Holdings Ltd. in Singapore. “The EU nations now need their parliaments to approve the aid, and markets remain skeptical over Greece’s resolve to implement tough reforms. In short, it is still too early to conclude that the worst is over for the single currency.”
• China's Reserve-Ratio Rise May Not Be Enough to Whip Inflation. China’s third increase of bank reserve ratios this year left benchmark interest rates and the yuan’s peg to the dollar unchanged, risking the need for more concerted effort to contain property prices and inflation in coming months. The requirement will increase 50 basis points effective May 10, the People’s Bank of China said on its Web site yesterday. The current level is 16.5 percent for the biggest banks and 14.5 percent for smaller ones.
• China Bank Reserve Ratio May Increase to 18%, Beijing News Says. China may raise its reserve ratio requirement for the nation’s banks to 18 percent, the Beijing News reported today, citing an unidentified official with the China Banking Regulatory Commission’s branch in Guangdong province.
• China May 'Crash' in Next 9 to 12 Months, Faber Says. China’s economy will slow and possibly “crash” in the next nine to 12 months, Marc Faber, the publisher of the Gloom, Boom & Doom report, said. “The signals are all there, the symptoms of a major bubble are all there,” Faber said in a Bloomberg Television interview from Hong Kong. “The Chinese economy is going to slow down regardless. It is more likely that we will even have a crash sometime in the next nine to 12 months.” The Shanghai Composite Index has plunged 12 percent this year, the fourth-worst performer among 92 gauges tracked by Bloomberg globally, as the government stepped up measures to cool the property market and ordered banks to set aside more deposits as reserves. The opening of the World Expo in Shanghai, China’s richest city, is “not a particularly good omen,” Faber said, drawing parallels with 1873 World Exhibition in Vienna, which coincided with a slump in stock markets and a depression in the 1870s. BlackRock Inc.(BLK) is among money managers reducing their holdings on Chinese stocks on expectations that economic growth has peaked. The BlackRock Emerging Markets Fund has widened its “underweight” position for China versus the MSCI Emerging Markets Index to about 7.5 percent from 4.6 percent at the end of March, the fund’s London-based co-manager Dan Tubbs said.
• Buffett Backs Goldman Sachs(GS) on Abacus Trade, Praises Blankfein. Berkshire Hathaway Inc.’s(BRK/A) Warren Buffett praised Goldman Sachs Group Inc. Chief Executive Officer Lloyd Blankfein and said the bank shouldn’t be blamed for losses suffered by clients who invested in mortgage bets at the center of a fraud suit filed by regulators. “He’s done a great job running that firm,” Buffett said yesterday in Omaha, Nebraska, in a Bloomberg Television interview before Berkshire’s annual shareholders meeting. He said he supports Blankfein “100 percent.” Buffett, 79, has become one of Goldman Sachs’s most visible advocates after the firm was sued last month by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission for misleading clients who invested in a collateralized debt obligation known as Abacus 2007-AC1. Buffett, who is also Berkshire’s CEO, invested $5 billion in Goldman Sachs in 2008 and has praised the bank for its risk management. Berkshire makes $500 million a year in interest on its Goldman Sachs preferred stock. The warrants Buffett negotiated as part of the deal give Berkshire the option to buy $5 billion of common stock for $115 a share. The shares closed at $145.20 on April 30. Berkshire’s paper profit on the warrants is about $1.3 billion, down from about $3 billion before the SEC lawsuit was announced. Net earnings were $3.63 billion in the first quarter after a gain of $1.4 billion on derivatives and investments, compared with a loss of $3.2 billion in the same period a year earlier, Buffett said yesterday. Operating earnings at Berkshire rose 30 percent to $2.2 billion.
• FDIC's Bair Opposes Lincoln Proposal to Segregae Swaps Units. Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. Chairman Sheila Bair is opposing a Senate measure that could cut off privileges to banks like Goldman Sachs Group Inc.(GS) and JPMorgan Chase & Co.(JPM) that don’t segregate swaps trading units. The proposal would bar companies that deal in swaps, a form of derivative, from bank privileges such as access to the Federal Reserve’s discount lending window and emergency liquidity functions, and the FDIC’s deposit guarantee. The purpose, Lincoln has said, is to protect taxpayers and the banks who pay assessments to the Deposit Insurance Fund from financial institutions that deal in riskier forms of trading.
• Buffett Says Derivatives Law May Spare Berkshire(BRK/A) on Collateral. Warren Buffett, who has warned about the dangers of unregulated derivatives, said a Senate plan to add oversight of the contracts probably won’t require his Berkshire Hathaway Inc. to put up collateral. “If the bill passes tomorrow, we would not have to post a dime,” Buffett said yesterday in Omaha, Nebraska, at Berkshire’s annual shareholders meeting. Lawmakers, who are seeking to impose collateral requirements on previously written derivatives, will probably focus only on companies that are deemed to be in weak financial condition, Buffett said. Buffett uses derivatives to speculate on the direction of equity markets and the credit quality of companies. Berkshire, where Buffett is chief executive officer, has about $63 billion at risk in its contracts. The firm has been pressing Congress to ensure that any new legislation won’t require it to put up funds as security against default on previously written contracts. The plan for new regulation could require Berkshire to post billions of dollars if there is no exemption for previously written contracts involving stronger companies, said David Sokol, one of Buffett’s top lieutenants, in an interview yesterday.
• Clinton Team Should Have Done More on Derivatives, Gensler Says. Commodity Futures Trading Commission Chairman Gary Gensler said President Bill Clinton’s administration “ought to have done more” in regulating the derivatives market “to protect the American public.” “Looking back now, knowing what we know now -- and a lot has developed over the last 10 years -- I think we ought to have done more,” Gensler said in an interview on Bloomberg Television’s “Conversations with Judy Woodruff,” airing this weekend. “Some of the basic assumptions about these marketplaces have proved out to be wrong.” Gensler was part of the Treasury Department from 1997 to 2001, a period when Secretary Robert Rubin and his successor, Lawrence Summers, along with Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan, pushed to keep derivatives markets outside the scope of federal regulators. Bankers “have a point of view because they want to protect their market,” Gensler said. “There’s five large financial firms that are concentrated in this market, and they benefit and earn billions of dollars for their shareholders.” U.S. commercial banks held derivatives with a notional value of $212.8 trillion in the fourth quarter, according to the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency. The five U.S. banks with the biggest holdings of derivatives -- a group that includes Goldman(GS), JPMorgan Chase & Co.(JPM) and Bank of America Corp.(BAC) -- hold $206.2 trillion, or 97 percent, of that total, the comptroller’s office said. “One thing I can confirm is that Wall Street has had many of their people -- lobbyists, and their people advocating against key parts of this reform,” Gensler said. “Sometimes I see them as I’m going into a senator’s office and somebody’s coming out. Sometimes I see their e-mails, so I can confirm that they are very skeptical about some of the parts of this.”
• Train Carrying North Korea Leader May Be in China, Yonhap Says. A North Korean train, which may be carrying leader Kim Jong Il, arrived at the Chinese border town of Dandong, Yonhap News agency reported. The train arrived at about 5:20 a.m. local time, Seoul- based Yonhap reported. South Korea’s YTN news channel also reported the arrival of the train, which it said is likely to be carrying Kim. The trip, if confirmed, marks Kim’s first visit outside the country in four years. It comes amid heightened tensions on the Korean peninsula, with speculation North Korea may be responsible for the sinking of a South Korean naval ship on March 26. China, North Korea’s largest trading partner and its main political ally, also hosts the six-nation talks on North Korea’s nuclear weapons program.
• Asia Sovereign Risk Index Starts as Government Debt Focus Grows. Asia’s newest bond risk benchmark and only purely sovereign index begins trading tomorrow as European credit downgrades sharpen investor focus on government debt. The Markit iTraxx SovX Asia Pacific index will track credit-default swaps on debt of China, Malaysia, Thailand, South Korea, Vietnam, the Philippines, Indonesia, Japan, Australia and New Zealand. Each nation will be equally weighted and the index will be traded in U.S. dollars with a five-year maturity.
• BHP(BHP), Rio(RTP) Shares Drop on Australian Mine 'Super' Tax. BHP Billiton Ltd. and Rio Tinto Group, led declines in mining stocks in Sydney trading on concern Australia’s plans to impose the world’s heaviest tax regime on resource companies will cut billions of dollars from profits. BHP and Rio fell the most in 10 months after Australia announced the so-called super tax yesterday. The 40 percent tax on resource profits will start from 2012 and raise A$12 billion ($11 billion) in its first two years. BHP, with 51 percent of its assets in Australia, said taxes on its operations there will increase to 57 percent in 2013 from 43 percent now. “These proposals seriously threaten Australia’s competitiveness, jeopardize future investments and will adversely impact the future wealth and standard of living of all Australians,” BHP’s Chief Executive Officer Marius Kloppers said in an e-mailed statement. Australia, the world’s biggest iron ore and coal exporter, is now the most highly taxed mining nation, reducing its competitiveness, Citigroup Inc. said. The move may reduce BHP’s earnings by 17 percent and Rio’s by 21 percent in 2013, UBS AG said today in a report. “It’s a worst-case scenario,” Citigroup mining analyst Craig Sainsbury said. Mining companies will be taxed about 58 cents for every dollar of earnings, compared with 35 cents before the new regime, he said. The resource profits tax is on top of corporate tax and companies payments of state royalties will be rebated under the new regime. Resource mergers and acquisitions may “dry up” because of the uncertainty created by the proposed changes, Sainsbury said. This is “bad news for mid-cap Aussie miners,” he said. The government runs the risk of “taking away from Australia the strongest industry we have and the one that saved us from the global financial crisis,” Keith De Lacy, chairman of Brisbane-based Macarthur, the world’s largest producer of pulverized coal, said yesterday. “Always 50 percent of our net profits went into development and exploration and so much of that is going now so obviously we’ll grow slower.” “It is not the right solution and will ensure Australian commodity exports become less competitive globally and investment in Australia is reduced,” Charlie Aitken, director of Southern Cross Equities Ltd., said today in a report.
• Copper Falls to Seven-Week Low on Cocern China Demand Slowing. Copper dropped to a seven-week low in New York after China ordered banks to set aside more deposits as reserves for a third time this year, fueling concern the lending restrictions may damp demand for raw materials. Copper for May delivery on the Comex in New York fell 1.3 percent to $3.305 a pound, the lowest price since March 15, and traded at $3.3095 at 10:25 a.m. in Singapore. “The commodities that are relating to Chinese growth, I would avoid for the time being,” said Marc Faber, the publisher of the Gloom, Boom and Doom report. “The symptoms of a major bubble are all there.” Futures also declined after Shanghai copper stockpiles increased last week to the highest level since at least 2003 and as the dollar advanced against a basket of six currencies today, reducing the appeal of commodities as alternative investments.
• United Parent UAL, Continental Approve Ailine Merger. United Airlines parent UAL Corp. and Continental Airlines Inc. agreed to merge in a stock swap valued at $3.7 billion that would create the world’s biggest carrier, people with knowledge of the situation said.
• Google's(GOOG) AdMob Purchase Said to Be Opposed by U.S. FTC Staff.

Wall Street Journal:

• Police Seek 'Furtive' Figure. Failed Times Square Device Described as Crude But Deadly; Videos Scoured for Clues.
• Attempts Suggest Shift to Small-Scale Strikes. Terrorism Investigators See Rash of Schemes by Small Groups or Individuals That Are Often Harder to Detect in Advance.
• Get Ready for a Nuclear Iran.
• How to Avoid a 'Bailout Bill'. A new bankruptcy process is the right way to deal with failing financial institutions.
  
• New Century Shipbuilding Cuts IPO Size Due to Eurozone Crisis - Source. China's New Century Shipbuilding Ltd. has slashed its initial public offer size by more than half as market conditions turned adverse due to the ongoing crisis in the euro zone, a person familiar with the situation said Saturday.
• 'No Big Deal' Defense. Among the defenses Goldman Sachs Group Inc.(GS) has laid out in response to the federal government's civil-fraud lawsuit against it is this: John Paulson was no big deal in early 2007. A more-nuanced picture of Mr. Paulson's importance to Goldman, however, emerges in interviews with people familiar with the hedge fund and the bank, and emails released by a Senate subcommittee. These emails suggest that in 2007 some Goldman employees were eager for his business and eventually came to respect him as the lead housing bear. "He's definitely the man in this space, up 2-3 bil on this trade," said an email from Joshua Birnbaum, a top Goldman Sachs trader, in July 2007, about three months after the bank struck the deal now under SEC scrutiny. "We were giving him a run for his money for a while but now are definitely #2," suggesting Paulson & Co.'s success on the trade was exceeding Goldman's. Goldman efforts to craft the 2007 deal for Paulson & Co. has put into focus the relationship between Wall Street's most elite bank and one of the world's most successful hedge funds, now managing $33 billion. Interviews with people familiar with the firms, emails and documents suggest that Goldman and Paulson & Co. became closer around the time of this trade.
• Dave & Buster's Sold in $570 Million Deal.
  

NY Times:

• Job Cuts at ABC Leave Workers Stunned and Downcast. If “Good Morning America” or “World News” look any different in the coming weeks, it might be because ABC News is employing nearly 400 fewer people.
• Who Knew Bankruptcy Paid So Well? MORE than $263,000 for photocopies in four months. Over $2,100 in limousine rides by one partner in one month. And $48 just to leave a message. Explanations for these charges? Priceless. The lawyers, accountants and restructuring experts overseeing the remains of Lehman Brothers have already racked up more than $730 million in fees and expenses, with no end in sight. Anyone wondering why total fees doled out in the Lehman bankruptcy alone could easily touch the $1 billion mark merely has to look at the bills buried among the blizzard of court documents filed in the case. They’re a Baedeker to the continuing bankruptcy bonanza, a world where the meter is always running.
• Greece Takes Its Bailout, but Doubts for the Region Persist. Analysts warned that Greece had not yet solved its fundamental problems and that other sovereign debt crises could arise as lenders and market speculators turned their attention to a handful of similarly vulnerable nations across southern Europe. “The immediate impact may be soothing, but the inflammation will soon show up again,” said Edward Hugh, an economist in Barcelona who writes for the influential Fistful of Euros blog. “My feeling is the rot has now gone too far.”

CNNMoney:

• Debt Roulette: Is Portugal Next?

Business Insider:

• The Future of the Global Public Debt Explosion.
• Beijing Real Estate Association Admits There's A 'Big Bubble', Supports New Measure to Ban Home Buying.
• Where Would We Be Without Offshore Oil? All the oil spilling into the Gulf of Mexico would not fill the gap between US production and demand. Econbrowser's James Hamilton posted this chart as a reminder of why we're drilling miles below the Gulf.
• Latest Oil Slick Map Shows How Rapidly This is Enveloping the Gulf.

Orange County Register:

• Foreclosures Mount in Wealthy Neighborhoods.

Kansas City Star:

• Government Passes the Buck in Goldman Sachs(GS) Fiasco. It’s hard to say which side looked worse in last week’s Goldman Sachs show trial. You had the suits from New York, squirming before the Senate inquisitors. And you had the politicians, preening themselves as guardians of financial rectitude — a display far from convincing. The courts will decide whether Goldman Sachs was guilty of fraud. The main purpose of last week’s spectacle was to deflect much of the blame for the crisis from the political class to Wall Street. Yet bankers didn’t set the crisis in motion. Washington did. The genesis of the debacle was a campaign, sustained over many years, to extend homeownership to people who manifestly could not afford it. Last year, the House Committee on Oversight and Government Reform issued the following findings: “The housing bubble that burst in 2007 and led to a financial crisis can be traced back to federal government intervention in the U.S. housing market intended to help provide homeownership opportunities to more Americans.… Government intervention … created a nexus of vested interests — politicians, lenders and lobbyists — who profited from the ‘affordable’ housing market and acted to kill reforms.… The ultimate effect was to create a mortgage tsunami that wrought devastation on the American people and economy.” In the late 1990s, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac — the two government-sponsored mortgage giants — began buying up and guaranteeing subprime mortgages on a vast scale. By 2008, Fannie and Freddie held or guaranteed $1.6 trillion in dodgy loans, for which the taxpayers are now on the hook. Alarms had been raised earlier, to no effect.

Rolling Stone:

• The Feds vs. Goldman(GS) by Matt Taibbi. The government's case against Goldman Sachs barely begins to target the depths of Wall Street's criminal sleaze.

Institutional Investor:

• Fortress(FIG) and Other Alternative Firms are Buying Traditional Asset Managers for Diversification.

Crain's Chicago Business:

• McDonald's Corp.(MCD) franchises may spend $55,000 per restaurant annually because of new U.S. health-care legislation, citing an analyst survey. Costs from the health-care law would drain 15% to 20% of a restaurant's profit, Crain's said, citing a survey of franchisees by Mark Kalinowski, an analyst at Janney Capital Markets in New York. Franchises may raise prices or spend less on renovations as costs increase, Crain's said.

Chicago Tribune:

• Kraft(KFT), Coke(KO) Move to iVend. The National Automatic Merchandising Association show, an annual three-day summit on vending machines, just wrapped at McCormick Place, and the two machines undoubtedly covered in the most fingerprints were from Kraft and Coca-Cola, and both, quite intentionally, resembled large iPhones. Instead of an array of plastic-wrapped foods behind a plastic window, Kraft's Diji-Touch resembles the menu on an iWhatever and offers images of those chips or candy bars. Tap it, the image enlarges. Brush the screen, the item swivels, allowing a peek at ingredients or nutritional information. "For 20 or 30 years nothing much new has happened with vending machines," said Kelly Brennan, a Kraft marketing manager. "This is the next step."

The Gainesville Sun:

• UF Expert Says Oil Spill Could Spread to East Coast of Florida. A University of Florida professor and oceanographic expert says he believes the east coast of Florida might see the worst of the impact of the oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico.

AP:

• Pakistani Taliban Promise US Attacks in New Video. A monitoring group says the Pakistani Taliban released a video — apparently dated early April — of their leader promising an attack on major U.S. cities "in some days or a month." The video is the second message purportedly from the militant network that has been discovered following an attempted weekend car bombing in New York City. It does not specifically mention that attack. Militant chief Hakimullah Mehsud says he is speaking on April 4 of this year, which would bolster recent reports that he did not die of a U.S. missile strike in January. IntelCenter, which keeps track of militant media messages, says Monday that the nearly 9 minute video appears credible.

Financial Times:

• Hedge Funds Begin to Restructure Fee System. What is a hedge fund? Some say the defining characteristic is the “2 and 20” fee structure, whereby investors typically pay annual charges of 2 per cent of assets under management and 20 per cent of returns. Funds of hedge funds usually layer “1 and 10” on top of this, claiming this pays for the value added by their manager selection and in some cases access to desirable hedge funds. Although this structure has been remarkably resilient, it is finally showing the strain. Just 38 per cent of global hedge funds surveyed by alternatives information provider Preqin still fit into the traditional model. Fees are also coming under downward pressure – the mean management fee in December 2009 was 1.65 per cent, with the median at 1.5 per cent. “As institutional investors find their voice, funds are having to be more flexible in how they charge,” says Amy Bensted, head of hedge fund research at Preqin. Not only are managers lowering their fees officially, they are open to negotiations of special terms for investors. “There’s a lot of individual changes in negotiations between investors and hedge fund managers,” says Ms Bensted. “It probably happens more than outsiders can be aware of.”

TimesOnline:

• Vote of Confidence. The Conservatives offer an optimistic vision for the renewal of Britain. The electorate has made a call for change and they deserve the chance to answer it. The Times has not endorsed the Conservative Party at a general election for 18 years. For far too much of that time, the Conservative Party turned inward and vacated the ground on which British electoral victory is won — a commitment to the prosperity and liberty fostered in a free-market economy and a sense of justice in an open and tolerant society. Tony Blair’s Labour Party took up the promise of modernity, through its commitment to enterprise and the courage to stand tall in the world. Sadly, over the past 13 years that promise has faded. We all know that Britain can do better: it is surely time to regain our optimism.

The Independent:

• Clients Prepare to Sever Goldman(GS) Ties. Capricorn Investment Group, one of the world's biggest family offices, could break its relationship with Goldman Sachs following accusations by the US financial watchdog that the firm misled clients over mortgage trading. The California-based firm is the first big client known to be reviewing ties with the investment bank in the wake of the fraud allegations which stunned the financial world, but dozens of others are said to be considering their relationship. Capricorn, headed by Stephen George, a former Goldman banker, manages around $7bn for its high-profile investors, which include the former US vice-president, Al Gore. The firm's executives are understood to be so angry with Goldman that they are deciding whether to continue using the firm for business transactions.

Bild am Sonntag:

• German Chancellor Angela Merkel said the European Union should be able to temporarily revoke voting rights from member states who violate deficit limits, citing an interview. Merkel, calling for "drastic" consequences after the Greek debt crisis, said sanctions for violating euro stability rules need to be changed.
• The majority of Germans oppose giving financial aid to Greece and call such support "wrong," citing an Emnid survey. The survey showed that 56% are against giving aid and 67% think the euro will have less stability in a year.
  

Neue Zuercher Zeitung:

• Credit Suisse Group AG Chief Investment Officer Stephan Keitel doesn't rule out a spreading of the Greek contagion, citing an interview.

Focus:

• The German government wants "radical" changes to the European stability and growth package and is examining options for the voluntary and compulsory exit of member states from the euro zone. The Finance Ministry commissioned a legal opinion in mid-April that should be available next week. The government also wants to enable debt-stricken euro zone members to go through an orderly insolvency process. In such cases, creditors such as banks would be force to forego some of their claims and the country would be required to carry out a reform program.

Toronto Star:

• Canada Warns of 'Imminent' Terror Threat in New Delhi. The Canadian government believes there is an “imminent” threat of a terrorist attack in India’s capital city.

Xinhua:

• China will increase its crack down on "harmful" Internet sites, citing State Council Information Office director Wang Chen.

Yonhap News:

• S. Korean Defense Minister Vows 'Punitive Action' Against Ship Sinking. South Korea's defense chief said Saturday some "punitive" action ought to be taken against those responsible for last month's sinking of a warship that is widely believed to be caused by a North Korean attack. South Korea has not officially blamed anyone for the March 26 sinking of the 1,200-ton Cheonan near the border with North Korea that left 46 sailors killed or missing, but suspicion has grown of the North's involvement.

South China Morning Post:

• Expo-Linked Building Boom Sparks Concern.

Weekend Recommendations
Barron's:

• Made positive comments on (BP), (JNJ) and (ALK).
• Made negative comments on (DELL).

Citigroup:

• Reiterated Buy on (GS), target $200.
• Downgraded (PHM) to Hold, target $14.

Night Trading

• Asian indices are -1.25% to -.50% on average.
• Asia Ex-Japan Investment Grade CDS Index 102.0 +3.0 basis points.
• S&P 500 futures +.08%.
• NASDAQ 100 futures +.23%.

Morning Preview Links

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate

• (ASF)/-.07
• (CLX)/1.08
• (L)/.96
• (MCK)/1.28
• (AB)/.50
• (APC)/.41
• (VMC)/-.37
• (PBI)/.53

Economic Releases
8:30 am EST

• Personal Income for March is estimated to rise +.3% versus unch. in February.
• Personal spending for March is estimated to rise +.6% versus a +.3% gain in February.
• The PCE Core for March is estimated unch. versus unch. in February.

10:00 am EST

• ISM Manufacturing for April is estimated to rise to 60.0 versus a reading of 59.6 in March.
• ISM Prices Paid for April is estimated at 75.0 versus 75.0 in March.
• Construction Spending for March is estimated to fall -.3% versus a -1.3% decline in February.

5:00 pm EST

• Total Vehicle Sales for April are estimated to fall to 11.4M versus 11.77M in March.

Upcoming Splits

• (ASA) 3-for-1
• (SLGN) 2-for-1
  

Other Potential Market Movers

• The Deutsche Bank Health Care Conference, RBC Capital Markets Financial Institutions Conference, (FPL) analyst conference and the (RDWR) analyst day could also impact trading today.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are lower, weighed down by technology and commodity shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open mixed and to weaken into the afternoon, finishing modestly lower. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the week.

Weekly Outlook

U.S. Week Ahead by MarketWatch (video).
Wall St. Week Ahead by Reuters.
Stocks to Watch Monday by MarketWatch.
Weekly Economic Calendar by Briefing.com.

BOTTOM LINE: I expect US stocks to finish the week modestly lower on terrorism fears, rising financial sector pessimism, increasing eurozone sovereign debt worries, profit-taking, rising oil prices, China bubble concerns and more shorting. My intermediate-term trading indicators are giving mixed signals and the Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the week.

Market Week in Review

S&P 500 1,186.69 -2.51%*



The Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com.

*5-Day Change

Weekly Scoreboard*

Indices

• S&P 500 1,186.69 -2.51%
  
• DJIA 11,008.61 -1.75%
  
• NASDAQ 2,461.19 -2.73%
  
• Russell 2000 716.60 -3.41%
  
• Wilshire 5000 12,279.27 -2.60%
  
• Russell 1000 Growth 526.84 -2.44%
  
• Russell 1000 Value 616.06 -2.64%
  
• Morgan Stanley Consumer 714.12 -2.25%
  
• Morgan Stanley Cyclical 936.36 -3.17%
• Morgan Stanley Technology 599.04 -3.93%
  
• Transports 4,670.92 -1.69%
  
• Utilities 387.95 -.15%
  
• MSCI Emerging Markets 42.35 -1.08%
  
• Lyxor L/S Equity Long Bias Index 1,011.85 -.74%
  
• Lyxor L/S Equity Variable Bias Index 870.70 unch.
  
• Lyxor L/S Equity Short Bias Index 849.95 +1.49%
  

Sentiment/Internals

• NYSE Cumulative A/D Line +93,638 +1.16%
  
• Bloomberg New Highs-Lows Index +512 -704
  
• Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 43.0 +22.86%
  
• CFTC Oil Net Speculative Position +106,264 -10.05%
  
• CFTC Oil Total Open Interest 1,395,964 +2.88%
  
• Total Put/Call 1.0 +42.86%
  
• OEX Put/Call 1.86 +313.33%
  
• ISE Sentiment 95.0 -34.03%
  
• NYSE Arms 2.16 +72.80%
  
• Volatility(VIX) 22.05 +32.67%
  
• G7 Currency Volatility (VXY) 11.24 +.18%
  
• Smart Money Flow Index 9,769.05 -.63%
  
• Money Mkt Mutual Fund Assets $2.872 Trillion -.2%
  
• AAII % Bulls 41.36 +8.50%
  
• AAII % Bears 28.64 -16.38%
  

Futures Spot Prices

• CRB Index 277.71 -.48%
  
• Crude Oil 86.15 +1.28%
  
• Reformulated Gasoline 239.94 +1.72%
  
• Natural Gas 3.92 -9.37%
  
• Heating Oil 231.57 +1.68%
  
• Gold 1,180.70 +1.86%
  
• Bloomberg Base Metals 215.95 -3.81%
  
• Copper 335.35 -5.18%
  
• US No. 1 Heavy Melt Scrap Steel 373.33 USD/Ton unch.
  
• China Hot Rolled Domestic Steel Sheet 4,599 Yuan/Ton -1.73%
• S&P GSCI Agriculture 310.09 +.04%
  

Economy

• ECRI Weekly Leading Economic Index 133.70 +.53%
  
• Citi US Economic Surprise Index +20.30 -3.2 points
  
• Fed Fund Futures imply 98.0% chance of no change, 2.0% chance of 25 basis point cut on 6/23
• US Dollar Index 81.87 +.67%
  
• Yield Curve 269.0 -5 basis points
  
• 10-Year US Treasury Yield 3.65% -16 basis points
  
• Federal Reserve's Balance Sheet $2.313 Trillion -.30%
  
• U.S. Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap 36.0 -5.26%
  
• Western Europe Sovereign Debt Credit Default Swap Index 116.0 +15.81%
  
• 10-Year TIPS Spread 2.40% +3 basis points
  
• TED Spread 19.0 +2 basis points
  
• N. America Investment Grade Credit Default Swap Index 90.27 +1.68%
  
• Euro Financial Sector Credit Default Swap Index 99.76 +3.33%
  
• Emerging Markets Credit Default Swap Index 221.65 +4.83%
  
• CMBS Super Senior AAA 10-Year Treasury Spread 234.0 +8 basis points
  
• M1 Money Supply $1.691 Trillion +.30%
• Business Loans 618.20 -.05%
  
• 4-Week Moving Average of Jobless Claims 462,500 +.3%
  
• Continuing Claims Unemployment Rate 3.6% unch.
  
• Average 30-Year Mortgage Rate 5.06% -1 basis point
  
• Weekly Mortgage Applications 534.60 -2.89%
  
• ABC Consumer Confidence -49 +1 point
  
• Weekly Retail Sales +2.7% -30 basis points
  
• Nationwide Gas $2.88/gallon +.03/gallon
  
• U.S. Cooling Demand Next 7 Days 53.0% above normal
• Baltic Dry Index 3,359 +11.74%
  
• Oil Tanker Rate(Arabian Gulf to U.S. Gulf Coast) 62.50 -7.41%
  
• Rail Freight Carloads 212,347 +1.16%
  
• Iraqi 2028 Government Bonds 83.25 -.12%
  

Best Performing Style

• Large-Cap Growth -2.44%

Worst Performing Style

• Small-Cap Value -3.64%

Leading Sectors

• Gold +4.21%
• Gaming +.36%
• Biotech +.19%
• Utilities -.15%
• Telecom -.84%

Lagging Sectors

• Semis -4.31%
• Steel -5.07%
• Oil Service -8.65%
• Education -9.0%
• Disk Drives -10.26%

One-Week High-Volume Gainers

One-Week High-Volume Losers

*5-Day Change