Bloomberg:
- Saudi Prince Alwaleed bin Talal told CNBC that he doesn’t expect to add to his stake in Citigroup and sold some of his Apple stake recently.
- GE’s first quarter profit rose 25%, the most in five quarters, spurred by orders for industrial goods and a shift into faster-growing areas including health care, water treatment, security and consumer finance.
- Brookstone agreed to be acquired for $417 million by a group led by OSIM International, which plans to expand the chain internationally.
- Crude oil fell, heading for a second-straight weekly loss, as higher output from OPEC bolsters inventories.
The Wall Street Journal:
- Rising demand for water, whether it be for drinking, agriculture or industry, is proving a boon for companies involved in its delivery, purification and storage.
- US retailers are rushing to add security systems for financial information and meet a June 30 deadline set by credit-card organizations for making their Web sites and databases safe.
- Gap Inc., Liz Claiborne and other apparel companies are developing snugger, sleeker clothes for women over 35, in a shift away from fashion’s traditional focus on younger women.
Philadelphia Inquirer:
- Some of Comcast’s seven million high-speed Internet customers became angry after three service disruptions in the past week.
NY Times:
- Ford and GM aren’t doing enough to set themselves apart from rivals by offering reliability, consistent quality or compelling beauty.
- Medicare is testing a program that awards workers incentives for meeting quality goals.
- Lower Manhattan is experiencing a residential boom not seen in 50 years as people move to the area and residential buildings go up near the World Trade Center site.
- Iraqis have found several mass graves in the southern part of the country, including one near Basra that may contain 5,000 Iraqi soldiers killed after they rose up against Saddam Hussein after the 1991 liberation of Kuwait.
LA Times:
- Southern California house prices rose about 19%(YoY) in March, the first time in a year they rose less than 20%.
Friday, April 15, 2005
Economic Releases
- Empire Manufacturing for April fell to 3.1 versus estimates of 18.0 and a reading of 20.2 in March.
- The Import Price Index for March rose 1.8% versus estimates of a 1.4% increase and a .8% gain in February.
- Net Foreign Security Purchases for February rose to $84.5B versus estimates of $65.0B and an upwardly revised $92.5B in January.
- Industrial Production for March rose .3% versus estimates of a .3% increase and a .2% gain in February.
- Capacity Utilization for March rose to 79.4% versus estimates of 79.6% and 79.3% in February.
- Preliminary Univ. of Mich. Consumer Confidence for April fell to 88.7 versus estimates of 91.5 and a reading of 92.6 in March.
- The Import Price Index for March rose 1.8% versus estimates of a 1.4% increase and a .8% gain in February.
- Net Foreign Security Purchases for February rose to $84.5B versus estimates of $65.0B and an upwardly revised $92.5B in January.
- Industrial Production for March rose .3% versus estimates of a .3% increase and a .2% gain in February.
- Capacity Utilization for March rose to 79.4% versus estimates of 79.6% and 79.3% in February.
- Preliminary Univ. of Mich. Consumer Confidence for April fell to 88.7 versus estimates of 91.5 and a reading of 92.6 in March.
Morning Buy/Sell Recommendations
Please check the new Daily Action Table on the right side of the page.
Friday Watch
Late-Night Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Samsung Electronics posted a first-quarter profit drop of 52% on falling prices of chips and liquid crystal displays.
- Oil may fall for a third week because of an increase in US crude and gasoline inventories, a Bloomberg survey showed.
- Japan's government may agree to joint drilling with China in a gas filed in a disputed area in the East China Sea.
Financial Times:
- Increased Iraqi oil production may help meet a rise in global oil demand this year if security in the country continues to improve.
China Securities Journal:
- China's asset regulator said "conditions are right" for pilot programs to start selling government stakes in publicly listed companies.
Late Buy/Sell Recommendations
Goldman Sachs:
- Reiterated Outperform on TPX and MXT.
Night Trading
Asian Indices are -1.75% to -1.0% on average.
S&P 500 indicated -.16%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated -.35%.
Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Before the Bell CNBC Video(bottom right)
Asian Indices
European Indices
Top 20 Business Stories
In Play
Bond Ticker
Analyst Actions
Macro Calls
Rasmussen Consumer/Investor Daily Indices
CNBC Guest Schedule
Earnings of Note
Company/EPS Estimate
BE/.08
CEN/.16
C/1.02
DECK/.70
GE/.37
GPC/.61
KEY/.61
KRI/.71
MAT/.03
RF/.56
TRB/.40
WB/1.01
Splits
None of note
Economic Releases
8:30 EST
- Empire Manufacturing for April is estimated to fall to 18.0 versus a reading of 19.6 in March.
- The Import Price Index for March is estimated to rise 1.4% versus a .8% gain in February.
9:00 EST
- Net Foreign Security Purchases for February are estimated to fall to $65.0B versus $91.5B in January.
9:15 EST
- Industrial Production for March is estimated to rise .3% versus a .3% increase in February.
- Capacity Utilization for March is estimated to rise to 79.6% versus 79.4% in Februray.
9:45 EST
- Preliminary Univ. of Mich. Consumer Confidence for April is estimated to fall to 91.5 versus a reading of 92.6 in March.
Bloomberg:
- Samsung Electronics posted a first-quarter profit drop of 52% on falling prices of chips and liquid crystal displays.
- Oil may fall for a third week because of an increase in US crude and gasoline inventories, a Bloomberg survey showed.
- Japan's government may agree to joint drilling with China in a gas filed in a disputed area in the East China Sea.
Financial Times:
- Increased Iraqi oil production may help meet a rise in global oil demand this year if security in the country continues to improve.
China Securities Journal:
- China's asset regulator said "conditions are right" for pilot programs to start selling government stakes in publicly listed companies.
Late Buy/Sell Recommendations
Goldman Sachs:
- Reiterated Outperform on TPX and MXT.
Night Trading
Asian Indices are -1.75% to -1.0% on average.
S&P 500 indicated -.16%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated -.35%.
Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Before the Bell CNBC Video(bottom right)
Asian Indices
European Indices
Top 20 Business Stories
In Play
Bond Ticker
Analyst Actions
Macro Calls
Rasmussen Consumer/Investor Daily Indices
CNBC Guest Schedule
Earnings of Note
Company/EPS Estimate
BE/.08
CEN/.16
C/1.02
DECK/.70
GE/.37
GPC/.61
KEY/.61
KRI/.71
MAT/.03
RF/.56
TRB/.40
WB/1.01
Splits
None of note
Economic Releases
8:30 EST
- Empire Manufacturing for April is estimated to fall to 18.0 versus a reading of 19.6 in March.
- The Import Price Index for March is estimated to rise 1.4% versus a .8% gain in February.
9:00 EST
- Net Foreign Security Purchases for February are estimated to fall to $65.0B versus $91.5B in January.
9:15 EST
- Industrial Production for March is estimated to rise .3% versus a .3% increase in February.
- Capacity Utilization for March is estimated to rise to 79.6% versus 79.4% in Februray.
9:45 EST
- Preliminary Univ. of Mich. Consumer Confidence for April is estimated to fall to 91.5 versus a reading of 92.6 in March.
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are sharply lower, led down by technology stocks in the region. I expect US equities to open lower on losses in Asia, earnings worries and disappointing economic data, however stocks may rally later in the day on short-covering, lower long-term interest rates and bargain-hunting. The Portfolio is Market Neutral heading into tomorrow.
Thursday, April 14, 2005
Thursday Close
Indices
S&P 500 1,162.05 -1.0%
DJIA 10,278.75 -1.20%
NASDAQ 1,946.71 -1.40%
Russell 2000 591.94 -1.76%
DJ Wilshire 5000 11,429.62 -1.08%
S&P Barra Growth 562.17 -.84%
S&P Barra Value 595.51 -1.16%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 585.52 -.17%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 709.75 -2.71%
Morgan Stanley Technology 439.03 -1.32%
Transports 3,441.30 -3.02%
Utilities 363.40 -1.05%
Put/Call 1.09 +15.96%
NYSE Arms 1.20 -27.24%
Volatility(VIX) 14.53 +9.17%
ISE Sentiment 152.00 -13.14%
US Dollar 85.00 +.71%
CRB 299.38 -.48%
Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 51.23 +.20%
Unleaded Gasoline 150.20 -.14%
Natural Gas 7.06 -.06%
Heating Oil 148.30 +.05%
Gold 425.60 unch.
Base Metals 123.55 -1.46%
Copper 142.85 unch.
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.31% -1.01%
Leading Sectors
Drugs +.51%
Foods -.13%
Energy -.25%
Lagging Sectors
HMOs -3.86%
Airlines -3.97%
Steel -6.42%
After-hours Movers
NUTR +5.0% after a US judge overturned the FDA’s ban on low-dose ephedra diet supplements.
CREE +6.3% after beating 3Q estimates and reiterating 4Q guidance.
LLY +6.9% after winning a court ruling that will prevent generic-drug makers from selling low-cost versions of its $4.4 billion-a-year Zyprexa schizophrenia drug before 2011.
CCRN -5.8% after announcing 3M share secondary.
IBM -3.75% after reporting first quarter profit rose 3%, less than expected, as the firm’s key computer-services business fell short of its sales goals and higher pension costs hurt it’s bottom line.
Evening Review
Detailed Market Summary
Daily ETF Performance
Style Performance
Market Wrap CNBC Video(bottom right)
Futures Recap
S&P 500 Gallery View
Timely Economic Charts
PM Market Call
Real-time/After-hours Stock Quote
In Play
Afternoon Recommendations
Goldman Sachs:
- Reiterated Outperform on MDT, GNW, IDIX, GD and Underperform on DJ.
Afternoon/Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:
- A weeklong sweep led by the US Marshals Service resulted in the capture of 10,340 fugitives in the largest such operation in US history.
- Emerging market bonds had their biggest decline in 11 months as losses in General Motors bonds curbed demand worldwide for high-yield, high-risk securities.
- Arizona regulators approved an air-pollution permit for an investor group planning a new $2.5 billion oil refinery, a milestone no other US project has reached in three decades.
- The US Congress passed legislation to force some consumers to pay part of their debts in bankruptcy.
- Members of the Chicago Board of Trade, the second-biggest US futures market, today approved a plan to convert to a for-profit company, paving the way for a possible IPO.
- GM and the United Auto Workers Union will work within their current contract to reduce health-care costs, company and labor officials said.
Reuters:
- The White House budget office told federal agencies this week to stop specifying brand names in procurement contracts, a move applauded by Intel Corp. rival AMD.
Financial Times:
- Nasdaq Stock Market is negotiating to buy Reuters Group’s Instinet.
Financial Times Deutschland:
- SAP AG isn’t considering buying US-based competitor Siebel Systems.
S&P 500 1,162.05 -1.0%
DJIA 10,278.75 -1.20%
NASDAQ 1,946.71 -1.40%
Russell 2000 591.94 -1.76%
DJ Wilshire 5000 11,429.62 -1.08%
S&P Barra Growth 562.17 -.84%
S&P Barra Value 595.51 -1.16%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 585.52 -.17%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 709.75 -2.71%
Morgan Stanley Technology 439.03 -1.32%
Transports 3,441.30 -3.02%
Utilities 363.40 -1.05%
Put/Call 1.09 +15.96%
NYSE Arms 1.20 -27.24%
Volatility(VIX) 14.53 +9.17%
ISE Sentiment 152.00 -13.14%
US Dollar 85.00 +.71%
CRB 299.38 -.48%
Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 51.23 +.20%
Unleaded Gasoline 150.20 -.14%
Natural Gas 7.06 -.06%
Heating Oil 148.30 +.05%
Gold 425.60 unch.
Base Metals 123.55 -1.46%
Copper 142.85 unch.
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.31% -1.01%
Leading Sectors
Drugs +.51%
Foods -.13%
Energy -.25%
Lagging Sectors
HMOs -3.86%
Airlines -3.97%
Steel -6.42%
After-hours Movers
NUTR +5.0% after a US judge overturned the FDA’s ban on low-dose ephedra diet supplements.
CREE +6.3% after beating 3Q estimates and reiterating 4Q guidance.
LLY +6.9% after winning a court ruling that will prevent generic-drug makers from selling low-cost versions of its $4.4 billion-a-year Zyprexa schizophrenia drug before 2011.
CCRN -5.8% after announcing 3M share secondary.
IBM -3.75% after reporting first quarter profit rose 3%, less than expected, as the firm’s key computer-services business fell short of its sales goals and higher pension costs hurt it’s bottom line.
Evening Review
Detailed Market Summary
Daily ETF Performance
Style Performance
Market Wrap CNBC Video(bottom right)
Futures Recap
S&P 500 Gallery View
Timely Economic Charts
PM Market Call
Real-time/After-hours Stock Quote
In Play
Afternoon Recommendations
Goldman Sachs:
- Reiterated Outperform on MDT, GNW, IDIX, GD and Underperform on DJ.
Afternoon/Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:
- A weeklong sweep led by the US Marshals Service resulted in the capture of 10,340 fugitives in the largest such operation in US history.
- Emerging market bonds had their biggest decline in 11 months as losses in General Motors bonds curbed demand worldwide for high-yield, high-risk securities.
- Arizona regulators approved an air-pollution permit for an investor group planning a new $2.5 billion oil refinery, a milestone no other US project has reached in three decades.
- The US Congress passed legislation to force some consumers to pay part of their debts in bankruptcy.
- Members of the Chicago Board of Trade, the second-biggest US futures market, today approved a plan to convert to a for-profit company, paving the way for a possible IPO.
- GM and the United Auto Workers Union will work within their current contract to reduce health-care costs, company and labor officials said.
Reuters:
- The White House budget office told federal agencies this week to stop specifying brand names in procurement contracts, a move applauded by Intel Corp. rival AMD.
Financial Times:
- Nasdaq Stock Market is negotiating to buy Reuters Group’s Instinet.
Financial Times Deutschland:
- SAP AG isn’t considering buying US-based competitor Siebel Systems.
BOTTOM LINE: US stocks finished sharply lower today as energy prices bounced and worries over slowing economic growth and earnings shortfalls rose. The Portfolio finished substantially higher on gains in my Base Metal, Oil Tanker and Chinese ADR shorts. I added a new Medical Information Systems short in the afternoon and added LLY long in after-hours trading, thus leaving the Portfolio Market Neutral. I am using a stop-loss of $56 on this new position. The tone of the market weakened into the afternoon as the advance/decline finished sharply lower, almost every sector fell and volume was above-average. Measures of investor anxiety were mostly higher into the afternoon. Overall, today’s market action was negative, considering another decline in the CRB Index, the market’s oversold state and another fall in long-term interest rates. While stocks may weaken a bit further over the coming weeks into earnings outlooks, I continue to believe the major averages are very close to meaningful bottoms for the year. I do not believe the US is falling into recession, which is what recent price movements seem to suggest. Longer-term investors should use any further weakness to begin building positions in favorite longs.
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