Monday, May 09, 2005

Stocks Quietly Higher Mid-day Ahead of Tomorrow's Cisco Report

Indices
S&P 500 1,177.70 +.54%
DJIA 10,379.98 +.33%
NASDAQ 1,975.73 +.43%
Russell 2000 600.70 +.70%
DJ Wilshire 5000 11,596.45 +.53%
S&P Barra Growth 568.11 +.37%
S&P Barra Value 605.00 +.66%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 583.01 +.46%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 715.60 +.32%
Morgan Stanley Technology 449.72 +.32%
Transports 3,557.14 +.66%
Utilities 367.25 +.65%
Put/Call .86 -18.10%
NYSE Arms .66 -30.65%
Volatility(VIX) 13.72 -2.35%
ISE Sentiment 151.00 -7.36%
US Dollar 84.67 +.06%
CRB 300.59 +.04%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 51.00 +.08%
Unleaded Gasoline 146.85 -.51%
Natural Gas 6.63 +.14%
Heating Oil 142.20 -.64%
Gold 426.60 -.07%
Base Metals 123.87 +.85%
Copper 144.60 +.35%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.27% +.38%

Leading Sectors
I-Banks +3.15%
Networking +1.67%
Oil Service +1.20%

Lagging Sectors
Computer Hardware -.24%
Papers -.44%
Oil Tankers -.87%
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is unchanged mid-day as gains in my Gaming and Homebuilding longs are offsetting losses in my Internet and Airline longs. I have not traded today, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. The tone of the market is modestly positive as the advance/decline line is slightly higher, most sectors are rising and volume is light. Measures of investor anxiety are mostly lower. Today’s overall market action is positive considering last week’s gains. I expect US stocks to trade modestly higher into the close on short-covering, bargain-hunting and increased optimism from merger activity.

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:
- JP Morgan Chase chief China economist Frank Gong, who predicted the government would let its pegged currency appreciate last week, now expects a move before June 30.
- Duke Energy, the largest US utility company, agreed to buy Cinergy Corp. at a 13.4% premium.
- Bloated inventories and high energy prices will cause the recent slowdown in US economic growth to linger into the second quarter as businesses and consumers curb spending, a Bloomberg News survey of economists found.

Wall Street Journal:
- Qwest Communications and its bankers are talking to MCI Inc. shareholders, and say there may be enough support to defeat MCI’s acceptance of an $8.4 billion takeover offer from Verizon Communications in preference to a higher Qwest bid.
- US Airways and America West Holdings have intensified their merger talks, hoping to reach an agreement before America West’s May 17 annual meeting.
- Medem Inc., a not-for-profit company affiliated with the American Medical Association, today plans to start an Internet-based health recording system patients can use to organize medical histories.
- MasterCard International is trying to close Web sites that sell stolen credit card information or trick consumers into divulging confidential information.
- Wilbur Ross, CEO of US leveraged-buyout firm WL Ross & Co., made money over the past three years buying bankrupt steel companies and is now betting on auto-parts makers and coal mining companies.
- The US Justice Department is preparing to sue the National Association of Realtors, on the grounds that its policies will illegally restrict discounting of sale commissions and place online rivals at a disadvantage.

NY Times:
- E*Trade Financial offered to buy rival online brokerage Ameritrade Holding for more than $5.5 billion on May 6.
- Avanir Pharmaceuticals is seeking FDA approval for a new drug to treat the uncontrollable laughing and crying that can be caused by some neurological diseases such as Alzheimer’s.
- Matrix Semiconductor is developing memory chips with vertically stacked circuits that may be a cheaper and denser alternative to flash memory chips made by companies such as Intel Corp.

Detroit News:
- Executives at some of the biggest US auto parts suppliers told the United Auto Workers union to boost the health of the industry by re-opening labor contracts with Ford Motor and GM.

USA Today:
- US cellular phone users are facing new local taxes of as much as $10 on monthly bills as cities and states try to make up for declining revenue from traditional phone taxes.

LA Times:
- Boeing is designing a plane that mostly will be built out of thin layers of carbon fibers instead of aluminum sheets.

Inventories Rise at a Slower Pace

- Wholesale Inventories for March rose .4% versus estimates of a .7% increase and a .6% gain in February.

Bottom Line: The increase in US wholesale inventories was paced by metals, machinery and energy. The ratio of inventories to purchases held at 1.19 months, matching the highest since November 2003. The build in energy inventories during the first quarter may result in less production in coming months as companies sell from existing stockpiles, economists said. Wholesalers account for about 25% of all business inventories.

Links of Interest

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Monday Watch

Weekend Headlines
Bloomberg:
- US stocks are at the lowest prices relative to earnings and dividends in eight years, based on the S&P 500, and the comparison may help sustain their rebound from the lows of 2005.
- Wal-Mart Stores said May sales at US stores open at least a year are rising within its forecast.
- The US warned N. Korea that a nuclear-weapons test would be considered a "provocative act," after reports suggested the North may be ready to conduct its first detonation.
- Another aide to terrorist Abu Musab al-Zarqawi responsible for many recent suicide bombings in Iraq was captured by Iraqi security forces.

New York Times:
- Genentech's Susan Desmond-Hellmann, a cancer doctor who runs the company's drug development unit, deserves credit for a string of recent clinical trial successes, citing analysts.
- US companies including Boeing, Cisco Systems, Motorola and GM, which have considerable sales in China, would likely benefit from a revaluation of the Chinese yuan.
- Iraq's new government plans to name Sunni Arabs to the Cabinet post of minister of defense and minister of industry, which are six of the nominations set to be presented for approval tomorrow.
- Pfizer, Eli Lilly and four other drugmakers are among the biggest beneficiaries of a temporary break allowing them to bring home overseas profit at a lower tax rate.
- Verizon Communications, Time Warner Cable and other telephone and cable television providers are aiming to cut into Vonage Holdings' lead in Internet-based phone services by developing their own online services.

Washington Post:
- Senate Democratic Leader Harry Reid of Nevada called President Bush a "loser" while speaking to high school students in his home state.
- The shift of government work to outside contractors by the Bush administration has created a boom for companies that specialize in working with federal agencies.
- A remote New Mexico town is one of several locations being used in a multi billion-dollar government initiative that simulates terrorist attacks to train emergency personnel.

Rocky Mountain News:
- EchoStar Communications was ordered by a Denver jury to pay $8 million to a blind man, who was refused a customer-service job at the company.

LA Times:
- A lack of honeybees and cold, wet weather is causing a shortage of almonds, which are leading to higher prices.
- California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger has about $2 billion more to close a gap in the state's budget because improvements in the state's economy have lead to higher tax revenue.

Dow Jones Neswires:
- OPEC won't consider another production increase because of an over-supply of oil.

Financial Times:
- Liberty Media, a US cable tv company that doubled its stake in Rupert Murdoch's News Corp. last year to almost 19%, is close to striking an agreement that will remove the threat it poses to Murdoch's control of his company.
- US lawmakers have called on President Bush to encourage China and Japan to revalue their currencies to ease pressure on US carmakers.
- The board at GM meets on Monday as the company faces pressure to restructure its North American operations and questions over what to do about its dividend.
- GE Chairman Jeff Immelt may today announce plans for the company to invest in and produce technology to reduce the environmental impact of industrial development.

Finanz & Wirtschaft:
- Alcon Inc., the world's largest eye-care company, aims to lift sales by 8% to 10% annually, CEO Cary Raymont said

International Herald Tribune:
- The Wall Street Journal, published by Dow Jones & Co., may change its European and Asian newspapers to a tabloid format from the current broadsheet in a bid to stem losses by its international editions.

Clarin:
- Argentina's government is considering plans that would spark an increase in investments by the country's energy companies

Financial Mail:
- Home Depot may acquire Kingfisher Plc, the UK's third-largest home-improvement retailer, after executives from both companies met to discuss terms.

Economic Times:
- Wal-Mart Stores is holding preliminary talks with companies in India to start its retail business in the country.

Weekend Recommendations
Bulls and Bears:
- Had guests that were positive on AXP, CMP, DELL, MSO and mixed on URBN, GS, SINA, HEW.

Forbes on Fox:
- Had guests that were positive on JRC, SEB, LBTYA, VRSN and mixed on DPH, JJZ.

Cashin' In:
- Had guests that were positive on VE, LUK, CVS, CEDC, PFE, mixed on WEN and negative on SIRI, PKZ.

Cavuto on Business:
- Had guests that were positive on COST, UPS, SBTV and mixed on WWY.

Forbes:
- Had a positive column on cell phone entertainment.

Barron's:
- Had positive comments on ETN.
- Had negative comments on IBM.

Goldman Sachs:
- Reiterated Outperform on DIS, BSX and NFP.

Night Trading
Asian indices are -1.0% to +.50% on average.
S&P 500 indicated +.10%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated +.03%.

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Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
AL/.56
ADBL/.00
CELL/.21
PCLN/.20
SSI/.09
TSO/.55

Splits
GNTX 2-for-1

Economic Releases
10:00 EST
- Wholesale Inventories for March are estimated to rise .7% versus a .6% gain in February.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian Indices are mixed as strength in India and Australia is being offset by weakness in China and Korea. I expect US stocks to open mixed as higher energy prices offset more economic optimism. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the week.

Sunday, May 08, 2005

Weekly Outlook

There are a few important economic reports and some significant corporate earnings reports scheduled for release this week.

Economic reports for the week include:

Mon. - Wholesale Inventories
Tues. - None of note
Wed. - Trade Balance, Monthly Budget Statement
Thur. - Advance Retail Sales, Initial Jobless Claims
Fri. - Import Price Index, Business Inventories, Univ. of Mich. Consumer Confidence

Some of the more noteworthy companies that release quarterly earnings this week are:

Mon. - Tesoro Corp>(TSO)
Tues. - Cisco Systems(CSCO), El Paso Corp.(EP)
Wed. - Federated Dept. Store(FD), May Dept. Stores(MAY), Walt Disney(DIS)
Thur. - Dell Inc.(DELL), Kohl's Corp.(KSS), Target Corp.(TGT), Wal-Mart Stores(WMT), Analog Devices(ADI), American Eagles Outfitters(AEOS)
Fri. - Liberty Media(LBTYA), Tiffany & Co.(TIF)

Other events that have market-moving potential this week include:

Mon. - UBS Global Financial Services Conference, Prudential Software Summit
Tue. - Prudential Software Summit, Merrill Lynch Global Industries Conference, Bear Stearns Intl. Healthcare Conference, Merrill Lynch Metals and Mining Conference, UBS Global Financial Services Conference, CIBC Communications and Tech Conference, Fed's Fisher speaks, Fed's Hoenig speaks
Wed. - Goldman Consumer Symposium, Lehman Brothers Financial Services Conference, Piper Jaffray Tech Conference, UBS Leveraged Finance Conference, CIBC Communications and Tech Conference, UBS Global Financial Services Conference, Prudential Software Summit, Merrill Lynch Global Industries Conference, TXN Analyst Meeting, Fed's Bies speaks, Fed's Poole speaks
Thur. - Piper Jaffray Tech Conference, UBS Leveraged Finance Conference, Bear Stearns Global Transportation Conference, Lehman Brothers Financial Services Conference
Fri. - American Society of Clinical Oncology Meeting begins, Piper Jaffray Tech Conference

BOTTOM LINE: I expect US stocks to finish the week modestly higher on short-covering, good earnings reports and bargain-hunting. The recent rally will likely continue near-term as a result of the relatively high levels of skepticism regarding its validity. However, a more significant advance will not occur until it is perceived that the Fed will slow the pace of rate hikes and oil falls meaningfully below $50/bbl. I continue to believe US growth is slowing to around 2.5% temporarily, notwithstanding the strong employment report on Friday. However, I am monitoring recent data carefully for signs that growth is stronger than I currently perceive. Slower growth and decelerating measures of inflation should allow the Fed to slow the pace of rate hikes after the June 29-30 meeting. As I stated in the prior post, I continue to believe oil has seen its cycle highs and will begin an accelerated downward move during the second half of the year, thus helping boost GDP growth back to more healthy levels. My trading indicators are giving neutral signals and the Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the week.