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Wednesday, May 18, 2005
Wednesday Watch
Late-Night Headlines
Bloomberg:
- The US House approved a $30.8 billion spending bill for the Department of Homeland Security that boosts funds for border protection.
- Companies worldwide from Fannie Mae to Infineon Technologies AG replaced CEOs at a record rate last year as boards and investors sought to boost earnings and share prices, according to Booz Allen Hamilton.
- North Korea and South Korea failed to agree on a joint statement for their first bilateral talks in 10 months after the North balked at giving a commitment it will address concerns about its nuclear weapons program.
Wall Street Journal:
- Pequot Capital Management, a US hedge fund, formed a joint venture with Singapore-based Pangaea Capital Management to invest in distressed assets.
Washington Post:
- The Federal Communications Commission is set to issue rules tomorrow requiring most Internet phone services to provide 911 services.
Financial Times:
- T&F Informa Plc, publisher of Lloyd's List shipping newspaper and the Routledge Encyclopedia of Philosophy, may be planning to spend as much as $550 million on US acquisitions.
Shanghai Daily:
- Aluminum Corp. of China, parent of China's biggest aluminum maker, plans to raise output fivefold by 2010 to meet local demand and boost exports.
21st Century Business Herald:
- China may allow companies to award stock options to senior managers as part of employee incentives.
Late Buy/Sell Recommendations
Goldman Sachs:
- Reiterated Outperform on MSFT.
- Reiterated Underperform on VRTX and AMAT.
Night Trading
Asian Indices are -.25% to +.50% on average.
S&P 500 indicated -.04%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated -.17%.
Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Before the Bell CNBC Video(bottom right)
Global Commentary
Asian Indices
European Indices
Top 20 Business Stories
In Play
Bond Ticker
Daily Stock Events
Macro Calls
Rasmussen Consumer/Investor Daily Indices
CNBC Guest Schedule
Earnings of Note
Company/EPS Estimate
BEAS/.09
POS/.37
EV/.28
FL/.38
HOTT/.11
INTU/1.55
PETM/.22
MW/.53
JBX/.50
SNPS/.08
TOO/.20
TLB/.63
Splits
MHP 2-for-1
NXY 2-for-1
Economic Releases
8:30 EST
- The Consumer Price Index for April is estimated to rise .4% versus a .6% gain in March.
- The CPI Ex Food & Energy for April is estimated to rise .2% versus a .4% increase in March.
- Energy Inventory Report
Bloomberg:
- The US House approved a $30.8 billion spending bill for the Department of Homeland Security that boosts funds for border protection.
- Companies worldwide from Fannie Mae to Infineon Technologies AG replaced CEOs at a record rate last year as boards and investors sought to boost earnings and share prices, according to Booz Allen Hamilton.
- North Korea and South Korea failed to agree on a joint statement for their first bilateral talks in 10 months after the North balked at giving a commitment it will address concerns about its nuclear weapons program.
Wall Street Journal:
- Pequot Capital Management, a US hedge fund, formed a joint venture with Singapore-based Pangaea Capital Management to invest in distressed assets.
Washington Post:
- The Federal Communications Commission is set to issue rules tomorrow requiring most Internet phone services to provide 911 services.
Financial Times:
- T&F Informa Plc, publisher of Lloyd's List shipping newspaper and the Routledge Encyclopedia of Philosophy, may be planning to spend as much as $550 million on US acquisitions.
Shanghai Daily:
- Aluminum Corp. of China, parent of China's biggest aluminum maker, plans to raise output fivefold by 2010 to meet local demand and boost exports.
21st Century Business Herald:
- China may allow companies to award stock options to senior managers as part of employee incentives.
Late Buy/Sell Recommendations
Goldman Sachs:
- Reiterated Outperform on MSFT.
- Reiterated Underperform on VRTX and AMAT.
Night Trading
Asian Indices are -.25% to +.50% on average.
S&P 500 indicated -.04%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated -.17%.
Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Before the Bell CNBC Video(bottom right)
Global Commentary
Asian Indices
European Indices
Top 20 Business Stories
In Play
Bond Ticker
Daily Stock Events
Macro Calls
Rasmussen Consumer/Investor Daily Indices
CNBC Guest Schedule
Earnings of Note
Company/EPS Estimate
BEAS/.09
POS/.37
EV/.28
FL/.38
HOTT/.11
INTU/1.55
PETM/.22
MW/.53
JBX/.50
SNPS/.08
TOO/.20
TLB/.63
Splits
MHP 2-for-1
NXY 2-for-1
Economic Releases
8:30 EST
- The Consumer Price Index for April is estimated to rise .4% versus a .6% gain in March.
- The CPI Ex Food & Energy for April is estimated to rise .2% versus a .4% increase in March.
- Energy Inventory Report
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher on strength in commodity-related shares in the region. I expect US equities to open mixed. However, stocks may rise later in the day as inflation worries subside. The Portfolio is 100% net long heading into the day.
Tuesday, May 17, 2005
Monday, May 16, 2005
Stocks Finish Higher as Hedge Fund Blow-up Worries Subside
Evening Review
Detailed Market Summary
Market Gauges
Daily ETF Performance
Style Performance
Market Wrap CNBC Video(bottom right)
S&P 500 Gallery View
Economic Calendar
Timely Economic Charts
GuruFocus.com
PM Market Call
After-hours Movers
Real-time/After-hours Stock Quote
In Play
Detailed Market Summary
Market Gauges
Daily ETF Performance
Style Performance
Market Wrap CNBC Video(bottom right)
S&P 500 Gallery View
Economic Calendar
Timely Economic Charts
GuruFocus.com
PM Market Call
After-hours Movers
Real-time/After-hours Stock Quote
In Play
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio finished slightly lower today on losses in my Oil Tanker and Base Metal shorts. I took profits in a few shorts from various sectors in the afternoon and added a few new Tech and Retail longs, thus leaving the Portfolio 100% net long. One of my new longs is AEOS and I am using a $26.50 stop-loss on this position. The tone of the market strengthened into the afternoon as the advance/decline finished at session highs, almost every sector advanced and volume was light. Overall, today’s market action was positive considering the weaker-than-expected Empire Manufacturing report and bounce in oil from morning lows. Tomorrow, I expect the PPI to meet expectations, housing starts to exceed estimates and industrial production to come in weaker-than-expected. This should result in further gains for US stocks.
Weekly Outlook
There are some important economic reports and a few significant corporate earnings reports scheduled for release this week.
Economic reports for the week include:
Mon. - Empire Manufacturing, Net Foreign Security Purchases, NAHB Housing Market Index
Tues. - Producer Price Index, Housing Starts, Industrial Production
Wed. - Consumer Price Index
Thur. - Initial Jobless Claims, Leading Indicators, Philly Fed.
Fri. - None of note
Some of the more noteworthy companies that release quarterly earnings this week are:
Mon. - Agilent(A), BMC Software(BMC), Lowe's(LOW), Limited Brands(LTD)
Tues. - Applied Materials(AMAT), Barnes & Noble(BKS), Deere & Co.(DE), Dick's Sporting Goods(DKS), Hewlett-Packard(HPQ), Home Depot(HD), JC Penney(JCP), Nordstrom(JWN), Sears Holdings(SHLD), Staples Inc.(SPLS)
Wed. - Intuit(INTU)
Thur. - Ann Taylor(ANN), Aeropostale(ARO), Gap Inc.(GPS), Marvell Technology(MRVL)
Fri. - None of note
Other events that have market-moving potential this week include:
Mon. - American Society of Clinical Oncology, JP Morgan Tech Conference, Thomas Weisel Internet Conference
Tue. - American Society of Clinical Oncology, Thomas Weisel Internet Conference, JP Moran Tech Conference, Goldman Sachs Basic Materials Conference, Banc of America Healthcare Conference
Wed. - Banc of American Healthcare Conference, JP Morgan Tech Conference
Thur. - Semi Book-to-Bill, Fed's Guynn speaks, Fed's Olson speaks, Fed's Greenspan speaks, JP Morgan Tech Conference
Fri. - None of note
Economic reports for the week include:
Mon. - Empire Manufacturing, Net Foreign Security Purchases, NAHB Housing Market Index
Tues. - Producer Price Index, Housing Starts, Industrial Production
Wed. - Consumer Price Index
Thur. - Initial Jobless Claims, Leading Indicators, Philly Fed.
Fri. - None of note
Some of the more noteworthy companies that release quarterly earnings this week are:
Mon. - Agilent(A), BMC Software(BMC), Lowe's(LOW), Limited Brands(LTD)
Tues. - Applied Materials(AMAT), Barnes & Noble(BKS), Deere & Co.(DE), Dick's Sporting Goods(DKS), Hewlett-Packard(HPQ), Home Depot(HD), JC Penney(JCP), Nordstrom(JWN), Sears Holdings(SHLD), Staples Inc.(SPLS)
Wed. - Intuit(INTU)
Thur. - Ann Taylor(ANN), Aeropostale(ARO), Gap Inc.(GPS), Marvell Technology(MRVL)
Fri. - None of note
Other events that have market-moving potential this week include:
Mon. - American Society of Clinical Oncology, JP Morgan Tech Conference, Thomas Weisel Internet Conference
Tue. - American Society of Clinical Oncology, Thomas Weisel Internet Conference, JP Moran Tech Conference, Goldman Sachs Basic Materials Conference, Banc of America Healthcare Conference
Wed. - Banc of American Healthcare Conference, JP Morgan Tech Conference
Thur. - Semi Book-to-Bill, Fed's Guynn speaks, Fed's Olson speaks, Fed's Greenspan speaks, JP Morgan Tech Conference
Fri. - None of note
BOTTOM LINE: I expect US stocks to finish the week modestly higher on short-covering, good earnings reports, better inflation readings and bargain-hunting. My trading indicators are still giving neutral signals and the Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the week. I will resume full blogging on Wednesday.
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