Friday, August 05, 2005

US Employers Added More Workers Than Expected in July

- The Unemployment Rate for July remained at 5.0% versus estimates of 5.0% and 5.0% in June.
- Average Hourly Earnings for July rose .4% versus estimates of a .2% increase and a .2% gain in June.
- The Change in Non-farm Payrolls for July was 207K versus estimates of 180K and an upwardly revised 166K in June.
- The Change in Manufacturing Payrolls for July was -4K versus estimates of -5K and an upwardly revised -21K in June.

BOTTOM LINE: US employers added 207,000 workers in July, a bigger increase than expected, suggesting companies are gaining confidence as the economy accelerates, Bloomberg reported. Moreover, the Unemployment Rate remained at 5.0%, near a 4-year low. Average monthly job growth is 191,000 this year versus 183,000 last year. The strong employment report is sending long-term rates higher, thus pressuring stocks.

Links of Interest

Market Snapshot
Detailed Market Summary
Market Internals
Economic Commentary
Movers & Shakers
IBD New America
NYSE OrderTrac
I-Watch Sector Overview
NYSE Unusual Volume
NASDAQ Unusual Volume
Hot Spots
NASDAQ 100 Heatmap
DJIA Quick Charts
Chart Toppers
Option Dragon
Real-time Intraday Chart/Quote

Friday Watch

Late-Night Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Crude oil may fall for the first week in four on expectations higher oil imports will increase inventories and gasoline demand will fall as the US summer driving season winds down, a Bloomberg survey showed.

Wall Street Journal:
- Amazon.com has had discussions with record companies about licensing music in order to sell a digital music service on its Web site by the end of the year.

London-based Times:
- London Underground’s weekend travel business has declined 30% since the July 7 bomb attacks compared with last year.

Asian Wall Street Journal:
- China is restricting media coverage on Cnooc’s failed bid to buy Unocal to muffle criticism of the US before a meeting between Chinese President Hu Jintao and President Bush next month.

Beijing News:
- Boeing will upgrade its representative office in China to a shareholding company to help it expand business in the country.

Late Buy/Sell Recommendations
Goldman Sachs:
- Reiterated Outperform on DEX.
- Reiterated Underperform on DRI and CSC.

Business Week:
- Shares of Charles Schwab(SCH) may gain as much as 48% by the end of the year because of rising profit and its decreasing percentage of revenue from trading services, which can be unpredictable.
- Brink’s(BCO), which provides armored truck and home-security services, will likely sell BAX Global, its air-freight delivery business, which has weighed on earnings

Night Trading
Asian Indices are -1.0% to +.50% on average.
S&P 500 indicated +.02%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated +.03%.

Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Before the Bell CNBC Video(bottom right)
Global Commentary
Asian Indices
European Indices
Top 20 Business Stories
In Play
Bond Ticker
Daily Stock Events
Macro Calls
Rasmussen Consumer/Investor Daily Indices
CNBC Guest Schedule

Earnings of Note
Company/EPS Estimate
CAH/.89
L/.02
NOV/.44

Upcoming Splits
None of note

Economic Releases
8:30 am EST
- The Unemployment Rate for July is estimated to remain at 5.0% versus 5.0% in June.
- Average Hourly Earnings for July are estimated to rise .2% versus a .2% increase in June.
- The Change in Non-farm Payrolls for July is estimated at 180K versus 146K in June.
- The Change in Manufacturing Payrolls for July is estimated at -5K versus -24K in June.

3:00 pm EST
- Consumer Credit for June is estimated to rise to $6.0B versus -$3.0B in May.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly lower on worries that rising energy prices will curtail growth in the region. I expect US equities to open modestly lower and to rally later in the afternoon. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the day.

Thursday, August 04, 2005

Stocks Finish Near Session Lows on Light Volume

Indices
S&P 500 1,235.86 -.74%
DJIA 10,610.10 -.82%
NASDAQ 2,191.32 -1.15%
Russell 2000 671.84 -1.69%
DJ Wilshire 5000 12,338.00 -.82%
S&P Barra Growth 592.12 -.91%
S&P Barra Value 639.36 -.57%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 587.51 -.83%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 756.57 -.86%
Morgan Stanley Technology 505.06 -.79%
Transports 3,766.27 -.96%
Utilities 402.73 -.63%
Put/Call 1.04 +16.85%
NYSE Arms 1.25 +33.03%
Volatility(VIX) 12.52 +5.83%
ISE Sentiment 205.00 -24.63%
US Dollar 87.80 -.22%
CRB 315.73 +.13%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 61.70 +.55%
Unleaded Gasoline 181.10 +.48%
Natural Gas 8.49 +.27%
Heating Oil 171.00 +.13%
Gold 442.90 -.18%
Base Metals 127.82 -.40%
Copper 164.80 -.39%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.31% +.46%

Leading Sectors
Oil Tankers +4.07%
Broadcasting +.61%
Oil Service +.55%

Lagging Sectors
Retail -2.33%
Semis -2.43%
Airlines -3.11%

Evening Review
Detailed Market Summary
Market Gauges
Daily ETF Performance
Style Performance
Market Wrap CNBC Video(bottom right)
S&P 500 Gallery View
Economic Calendar
Timely Economic Charts
GuruFocus.com
PM Market Call
After-hours Movers
Real-time/After-hours Stock Quote
In Play

Afternoon Recommendations
Goldman Sachs:
- Reiterated Outperform on LVS.
- Reiterated Underperform on WGR.

Afternoon/Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Microsoft name Wal-Mart Stores’ Kevin Turner, once the retailer’s youngest-ever executive, as chief operating officer to free up Chief Executive Steve Ballmer to spend more time on products.
- Exxon Mobil CEO Raymond will retire at the end of 2005, ending a 12-year reign in which he built a Standard Oil Trust successor into the world’s largest publicly traded company.
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio finished modestly lower today on losses in my Semiconductor/Retail longs and Oil Tanker shorts. I did not trade in the afternoon, thus leaving the Portfolio 75% net long. The tone of the market was negative today as the advance/decline line finished substantially lower, sector performance was mostly negative and volume was below average. Measures of investor anxiety remained higher into the close. Overall, today’s market action was negative. I am anticipating that tomorrow's non-farm payrolls exceed estimates of 180,000. This should send the U.S. dollar and long-term rates modestly higher. Based on the market's action today, I suspect this will pressure stocks slightly near-term. However, the belief that better employment prospects mean continuing positive income trends will offset higher gas and interest rates should mute losses.

Stocks Lower Mid-day on Rising Energy Prices and Long-term Rates

Indices
S&P 500 1,236.43 -.69%
DJIA 10,619.40 -.73%
NASDAQ 2,193.46 -1.05%
Russell 2000 673.63 -1.42%
DJ Wilshire 5000 12,345.71 -.75%
S&P Barra Growth 592.66 -.81%
S&P Barra Value 639.35 -.58%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 587.57 -.82%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 757.19 -.76%
Morgan Stanley Technology 505.93 -.57%
Transports 3,768.23 -.91%
Utilities 402.60 -.66%
Put/Call 1.12 +25.84%
NYSE Arms 1.11 +17.87%
Volatility(VIX) 12.47 +5.41%
ISE Sentiment 196.00 -27.94%
US Dollar 87.78 -.24%
CRB 316.54 +.39%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 61.85 +1.63%
Unleaded Gasoline 180.50 +1.93%
Natural Gas 8.57 +2.68%
Heating Oil 171.70 +1.72%
Gold 443.70 +.25%
Base Metals 127.82 -.40%
Copper 165.45 -1.02%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.31% +.46%

Leading Sectors
Oil Tankers +3.69%
Hospitals +.83%
Oil Service +.82%

Lagging Sectors
Semis -2.15%
Retail -2.38%
Airlines -2.81%
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is lower mid-day on losses in my Retail/Semiconductor longs and Oil Tanker shorts. I took profits in a few longs and added IWM and QQQQ short this morning, thus leaving the Portfolio 75% net long. The tone of the market is negative as the advance/decline line is lower, most sectors are lower and volume is below average. Measures of investor anxiety are higher. Today’s overall market action is mildly negative considering recent gains and the rise in oil/rates. The AAII % Bulls fell to 47.83% this week from 57.52% the prior week; this is now back to average levels. Likewise, the % Bears rose to 26.09% from 17.65% the prior week; this is also back to average levels. These readings should help keep any consolidation modest. I expect US stocks to trade modestly higher from current levels into the close on short-covering ahead of tomorrow’s employment report.

Today's Headlines

Bloomberg:
- The New York Civil Liberties Union filed a lawsuit challenging the New York Police Department’s searches of passengers’ bags on city subways.
- Sharp will raise production of liquid crystal displays used in televisions by 20% over the next year at its Kameyama plant, by making additional investments and changing its factory layout to speed up output.
- Dell probably raised second-quarter shipments in China by about 30%.
- Wal-Mart Stores said July sales rose 4.4% as grocery buying and fewer clearance sales helped the gain.
- The Bank of England reduced its benchmark interest rate for the first time in more than two years after the UK economy grew in the second quarter at the slowest pace since 1993.
- Crude oil in NY is approaching the record of $62.50/bbl. as below-normal gas inventories increased speculation that fuel consumption will outpace refinery production.
- US retailers including Neiman Marcus and JC Penney posted 3.6% sales gains in July for stores open at least a year.

Wall Street Journal:
- A prolonged drought in the US Midwest, the worst since 1998, is shrinking anticipated harvest estimates for corn and soybeans and slowing commercial shipping on some of the nation’s busiest waterways.
- Adidas-Salomon AG’s planned $3.8 billion acquisition of Reebok International may help the company realize its goal of broadening the appeal of its footwear to urban consumers.
- Nokia Oyj designer Frank Nuovo has reverted to classic design for the company’s stainless steel 8800 model cell phone to counter growing competition from Motorola.
- The European Union, the world’s second largest clothing importer, agreed to lift emergency quotas set on Chinese-made sweaters and allow millions of products awaiting customs clearance to be delivered.
- Medicare has decided to start paying hospitals for the use of the Genentech drug that dissolves stroke patients’ blood clots.
- Sony is selling PictureStation kiosks to hospitals and craft stores as it, Eastman Kodak and Fuji Photo Film seek to gain from demand for digital picture printing.
- The US government is offering drives of hybrid cars, which run on a combination of electricity and gasoline power, benefits such as tax breaks and free parking.

NY Times:
- Some US companies with no experience in the phone business are selling mobile phone services.
- Yahoo! is testing a search engine that will seek out music for users by looking through 50 million music, voice and other audio files.

LA Times:
- Bain Capital LLC and MacGregor Golf made an offer to buy Callaway Golf for as much as $1.24 billion in cash.

Washington Post:
- The International Association of Chiefs of Police, representing the heads of police departments worldwide, have issued a new recommendation saying that officers facing a suicide bomber should shoot the suspect in the head.