Monday, September 19, 2005

Monday Watch

Weekend Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Wal-Mart Stores said September sales at its US stores open at least a year are rising within its forecast in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina.
- OPEC should raise output quotas for the sixth time in 15 months as oil and gas prices stay near record highs, the ministers for Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates said.
- Qatar is planning a $1.8 billion refinery to process heavy crude oil as gasoline and diesel demand rises and regulations stall construction of new plants in Europe and the US.
- Afghans voted today in the country’s first legislative elections since 1969.
- Kuwait is in talks with the Bush administration to build an oil refinery in the US, seeking to construct the nation’s first new plant in three decades.
- The euro is falling to a month’s low versus the US dollar in Asia after German opposition leader Angela Merkel and Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder each claimed the right to run the government after an inconclusive result in elections yesterday.

Wall Street Journal:
- Centennial Communications, which provides wireless-telephone services in the US and the Caribbean, is considering selling itself in a deal worth as much as $1.5 billion.
- Wal-Mart Stores has created a prototype store in a Dallas suburb with wider aisles, lower shelves and more displays of pricier products as it seeks to lure more wealthy shoppers.

TheDeal.com:
- After raising $4 billion in a 14.2 million-share secondary offering late last week, Google Inc. is sitting on a total of roughly $7 billion in cash.

Washington Post:
- The US is realigning its forces in the Pacific in reaction to China’s escalating power.
- The Washington, DC police dept. plans to deploy several hundred officers to counter an antiwar rally and march near the White House on Sept. 24.

NY Times:
- New Orleans residents including Barry Kern of Kern Studios are looking ahead to holding Mardi Gras next year as they recover from Hurricane Katrina.
- The Walt Disney Co. will release the first of four computer-animated films on Nov. 4 as it tries to match the success of rivals Pixar and DreamWorks Animation SKG.

Boston Globe:
- AES Corp. has proposed building a $500 million liquefied natural-gas plan on Outer Brewster Island in Boston Harbor.

Philadelphia Inquirer:
- Philadelphia and neighboring country health-care facilities are spending more than $4 billion to build and expand their properties after years of closings in the area.

AFP:
- Iraqi lawmakers approved amendments to the country’s draft constitution and sent the charter to the United Nations, which will print five million copies for the public before an Oct. 15 referendum.

Independent on Sunday:
- UK Prime Minister Tony Blair accused the British Broadcasting Corp. of “gloating” over the devastation to the southern US from Hurricane Katrina.

The Business:
- Tesco Plc, the biggest UK food retailer, is considering a purchase of Albertson’s Inc. that could value the second-largest US grocery chain at $7.6 billion.

Weekend Recommendations
Barron's:
- Had positive comments on APC, BP, COCO, COP, DUK, ETR, EXC, WYE, MO, HPQ, FD, EMR, DSX and PMCS.
- Had negative comments on HXM, BA and IP.

Goldman Sachs:
- Reiterated Outperform on EMC.
- Reiterated Underperform on EDS.

Night Trading
Asian indices are unch. to +.25% on average.
S&P 500 indicated -.12%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated -.12%.

Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Before the Bell CNBC Video(bottom right)
Global Commentary
Asian Indices
European Indices
Top 20 Business Stories
In Play
Bond Ticker
Daily Stock Events
Macro Calls
Rasmussen Consumer/Investor Daily Indices
CNBC Guest Schedule

Earnings of Note
Company/Estimate
AES/.15
CCL/1.35
NKE/1.42

Upcoming Splits
None of note

Economic Releases
1:00 pm EST
- The NAHB Housing Market Index for September is estimated at 67 versus a reading of 67 in August.

BOTTOM LINE: Asian Indices are higher, spurred by gains in mining shares in the region. I expect US stocks to open modestly lower on higher energy prices and rising apprehension ahead of Tuesday’s Fed meeting. The Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the week.

Sunday, September 18, 2005

Weekly Outlook

There are a few important economic reports and some significant corporate earnings reports scheduled for release this week.

Economic reports for the week include:

Mon. - NAHB Housing Market Index
Tues. - Housing Starts, Building Permits, FOMC Rate Decision
Wed. - None of note
Thur. - Initial Jobless Claims, Continuing Claims, Leading Indicators
Fri. - None of note

A few of the more noteworthy companies that release quarterly earnings this week are:

Mon. - AES Corp.(AES), Nike Inc.(NKE)
Tues. - Circuit City(CC), Goldman Sachs(GS)
Wed. - Autozone(AZO), Bed, Bath & Beyond(BBBY), Biomet(BMET), Carmax(KMX), Cintas(CTAS), ConAgra(CAG), FedEx Corp.(FDX), Morgan Stanley(MWD)
Thur. - Darden Restaurants(DRI), General Mills(GIS), KB Home(KBH), Oracle Corp.(ORCL), Palm Inc.(PALM), Solectron(SLR)
Fri. - GTECH Holdings(GTK)

Other events that have market-moving potential this week include:

Mon. - OPEC Ordinary Meeting, Banc of America Investment Conference
Tue. - JP Morgan Software Forum, Banc of America Investment Conference, Semi Book-to-Bill
Wed. - Goldman Sachs Global Communacopia Conference, Banc of America Investment Conference
Thur. - Banc of America Investment Conference
Fri. - Goldman Sachs Telecommunications Conference

BOTTOM LINE: I expect US stocks to finish the week modestly higher. The Fed will likely raise the benchmark Fed Funds rate 25 basis points on Tues. However, the policy statement will probably contain language that overtly states they will “pause” temporarily to allow for further evaluation of data in the aftermath of Katrina. Initial Jobless Claims will take another large jump higher this week as more hurricane victims are able to file. My trading indicators are giving bullish signals and the Portfolio is 75% net long heading into the week.

Market Week in Review

S&P 500 1,237.91 -.29%*

Image hosted by Photobucket.com

Click here for the Weekly Wrap by Briefing.com.

BOTTOM LINE: Overall, last week's market performance was neutral considering weaker economic data and rising long-term interest rates. The advance/decline line fell, most sectors declined and volume was slightly above average on the week. Measures of investor anxiety were lower. The AAII % Bulls rose for the week and is now at above-average levels. The average 30-year mortgage rate rose to 5.74%, but is still only 53 basis points above all-time lows set in June 2003 and down from 2005 highs of 6.04% set in April. The benchmark 10-year T-note yield rose 15 basis points on the week as investors seem to be factoring in the possibility of stagflation. This also boosted the US dollar and Gold. While Hurricane Katrina may result in a few more weeks of weaker economic data and higher inflation readings, I strongly disagree that inflation or stagflation will be a problem over the intermediate-term. Finally, most commodity prices fell again as more evidence of slowing global demand was evident. Unleaded Gas futures have now plunged almost 40% since their peak during the immediate aftermath of Katrina.

*5-day % Change

Friday, September 16, 2005

Weekly Scoreboard*

Indices
S&P 500 1,237.91 -.29%
DJIA 10,641.94 -.34%
NASDAQ 2,160.35 -.70%
Russell 2000 671.98 -.89%
DJ Wilshire 5000 12,354.21 -.43%
S&P Equity Long/Short Index 1,066.32 -.03%
S&P Barra Growth 590.06 -.70%
S&P Barra Value 643.63 +.12%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 588.22 -.66%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 736.29 -1.46%
Morgan Stanley Technology 504.43 -.35%
Transports 3,633.72 +.31%
Utilities 428.85 +1.85%
S&P 500 Cum A/D Line 7,727.00 -.78%
Bloomberg Crude Oil % Bulls 39.0 -15.77%
Put/Call .81 +6.58%
NYSE Arms .75 +1.35%
Volatility(VIX) 11.22 -6.34%
ISE Sentiment 108.0 -30.77%
AAII % Bulls 51.43 +21.56%
US Dollar 88.06 +1.39%
CRB 315.39 -2.45%

Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 63.00 -1.87%
Unleaded Gasoline 178.51 -8.69%
Natural Gas 11.14 -.77%
Heating Oil 183.70 -3.82%
Gold 463.50 +2.16%
Base Metals 124.20 -2.27%
Copper 159.00 -3.28%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.27% +3.64%
Average 30-year Mortgage Rate 5.74% +.53%

Leading Sectors
Gold & Silver +7.74%
Utilities +1.85%
Computer Hardware +1.75%

Lagging Sectors
Gaming -3.63%
Alternative Energy -4.04%
Airlines -5.87%

One-Week High-Volume Gainers
One-Week High-Volume Losers

*5-Day % Change

***Alert***

Due to a scheduling conflict I am done blogging for the day. I will post the Weekly Scoreboard this evening.

Chart of Interest

Image hosted by Photobucket.com

BOTTOM LINE: With all the talk about inflation it is good to keep it in perspective. Moreover, the CRB Index, which has been highly correlated to measures of inflation, has declined about 6% over the last week and a half. Capacity Utilization for August was 79.8% below the long-term average of 80.78%.