Tuesday, April 04, 2006
Monday, April 03, 2006
Tuesday Watch
Late-Night Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Congressman Tom DeLay, former majority leader of the US House of Representatives, plans to quit his post “within months,” Time magazine reported on its web site.
- The Univ. of Florida beat UCLA 73-57 in the championship game of the national men’s college basketball tournament for the school’s first title.
USA Today:
- A growing number of US doctors are making house calls under a three-year Medicare pilot program in California, Texas and Florida.
Nikkei English News:
- Hitachi Ltd. will increase production of flat-panel screens to better match demand and improve its position in the market.
Xinhua News Agency:
- Chinese Internet search firm Baidu.com(BIDU) had a 56.6% share of China’s Internet search market in 2005, ahead of Google’s(GOOG) 32.8% market share.
Wen Wei Po:
- China should gradually reduce its holdings of US debt, citing Cheng Siwei, vice chairman of the Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress.
Late Buy/Sell Recommendations
- None of note
Night Trading
Asian Indices are unch. to +.25% on average.
S&P 500 indicated +.07%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated +.04%.
Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Before the Bell CNBC Video(bottom right)
Global Commentary
Asian Indices
European Indices
Top 20 Business Stories
In Play
Bond Ticker
Daily Stock Events
Macro Calls
Rasmussen Consumer/Investor Daily Indices
CNBC Guest Schedule
Earnings of Note
Company/EPS Estimate
- (DLP)/.46
- (DRC)/.39
- (PQE)/.52
- (TDS)/.31
Upcoming Splits
- (PVR) 2-for-1
- (BER) 3-for-2
Economic Releases
- None of note
Bloomberg:
- Congressman Tom DeLay, former majority leader of the US House of Representatives, plans to quit his post “within months,” Time magazine reported on its web site.
- The Univ. of Florida beat UCLA 73-57 in the championship game of the national men’s college basketball tournament for the school’s first title.
USA Today:
- A growing number of US doctors are making house calls under a three-year Medicare pilot program in California, Texas and Florida.
Nikkei English News:
- Hitachi Ltd. will increase production of flat-panel screens to better match demand and improve its position in the market.
Xinhua News Agency:
- Chinese Internet search firm Baidu.com(BIDU) had a 56.6% share of China’s Internet search market in 2005, ahead of Google’s(GOOG) 32.8% market share.
Wen Wei Po:
- China should gradually reduce its holdings of US debt, citing Cheng Siwei, vice chairman of the Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress.
Late Buy/Sell Recommendations
- None of note
Night Trading
Asian Indices are unch. to +.25% on average.
S&P 500 indicated +.07%.
NASDAQ 100 indicated +.04%.
Morning Preview
US AM Market Call
NASDAQ 100 Pre-Market Indicator/Heat Map
Pre-market Commentary
Before the Bell CNBC Video(bottom right)
Global Commentary
Asian Indices
European Indices
Top 20 Business Stories
In Play
Bond Ticker
Daily Stock Events
Macro Calls
Rasmussen Consumer/Investor Daily Indices
CNBC Guest Schedule
Earnings of Note
Company/EPS Estimate
- (DLP)/.46
- (DRC)/.39
- (PQE)/.52
- (TDS)/.31
Upcoming Splits
- (PVR) 2-for-1
- (BER) 3-for-2
Economic Releases
- None of note
BOTTOM LINE: Asian indices are mostly higher, on gains in commodity stocks in the region. I expect US equities to open mixed and to trade modestly lower into the afternoon. The Portfolio is 50% net long heading into the day.
Stocks Finish Mixed, Closing Near Session Lows
Indices
S&P 500 1,297.81 +.23%
DJIA 11,144.94 +.32%
NASDAQ 2,336.74 -.13%
Russell 2000 759.22 -.77%
Wilshire 5000 13,131.27 +.07%
S&P Barra Growth 610.55 +.10%
S&P Barra Value 684.14 +.36%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 609.95 +.35%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 821.11 +.89%
Morgan Stanley Technology 550.25 +.39%
Transports 4,622.04 +1.18%
Utilities 390.37 +.35%
Put/Call .67 -16.25%
NYSE Arms .63 -61.77%
Volatility(VIX) 11.57 +1.58%
ISE Sentiment 141.00 +17.50%
US Dollar 89.64 -.10%
CRB 335.61 +.73%
Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 66.37 -.55%
Unleaded Gasoline 185.60 -.39%
Natural Gas 7.17 -1.02%
Heating Oil 185.65 -.31%
Gold 592.80 -.25%
Base Metals 182.91 +3.21%
Copper 254.55 -.08%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.86% +.25%
Leading Sectors
Steel +1.17%
Semis +1.11%
Wireless +.91%
Lagging Sectors
Retail -1.29%
Biotech -1.44%
REITs -1.96%
Evening Review
Detailed Market Summary
Market Gauges
Daily ETF Performance
Style Performance
Market Wrap CNBC Video(bottom right)
S&P 500 Gallery View
Economic Calendar
Timely Economic Charts
GuruFocus.com
PM Market Call
After-hours Movers
Real-time/After-hours Stock Quote
In Play
Afternoon Recommendations
Banc of America:
- Rated (ISE) Buy, target $50.
Cowen:
- Rated (FLEX), (JBIL) Outperform.
Afternoon/Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:
- BKF Capital Group plans to shut down its hedge funds that generated about 20% of its revenue last year because two senior managers quit over a disagreement about long-term compensation.
- Continental AG, which provides vehicle-stability systems to GM and Porshe AG, agreed to buy the car-electronics unit of Motorola(MOT) for $1 billion to become the world’s biggest provider of in-vehicle communications.
- Novartis AG increased its offer for the rest of Chiron Corp.(CHIR) to about $5.33 billion from about $5.1 billion to win backing from shareholders who opposed the deal because the price was too low.
CNBC:
- General Motors(GM) is negotiating with lenders for an $8 billion to $9 billion loan.
Reuters:
- Clear Channel Communications(CCU) signed an agreement with Google(GOOG) to use Google’s software for Internet searches and advertising on radio Web sites.
Financial Times:
- McDonald’s Corp.(MCD) will put photographs of customers on the side of its burger packaging as part of a marketing competition.
S&P 500 1,297.81 +.23%
DJIA 11,144.94 +.32%
NASDAQ 2,336.74 -.13%
Russell 2000 759.22 -.77%
Wilshire 5000 13,131.27 +.07%
S&P Barra Growth 610.55 +.10%
S&P Barra Value 684.14 +.36%
Morgan Stanley Consumer 609.95 +.35%
Morgan Stanley Cyclical 821.11 +.89%
Morgan Stanley Technology 550.25 +.39%
Transports 4,622.04 +1.18%
Utilities 390.37 +.35%
Put/Call .67 -16.25%
NYSE Arms .63 -61.77%
Volatility(VIX) 11.57 +1.58%
ISE Sentiment 141.00 +17.50%
US Dollar 89.64 -.10%
CRB 335.61 +.73%
Futures Spot Prices
Crude Oil 66.37 -.55%
Unleaded Gasoline 185.60 -.39%
Natural Gas 7.17 -1.02%
Heating Oil 185.65 -.31%
Gold 592.80 -.25%
Base Metals 182.91 +3.21%
Copper 254.55 -.08%
10-year US Treasury Yield 4.86% +.25%
Leading Sectors
Steel +1.17%
Semis +1.11%
Wireless +.91%
Lagging Sectors
Retail -1.29%
Biotech -1.44%
REITs -1.96%
Evening Review
Detailed Market Summary
Market Gauges
Daily ETF Performance
Style Performance
Market Wrap CNBC Video(bottom right)
S&P 500 Gallery View
Economic Calendar
Timely Economic Charts
GuruFocus.com
PM Market Call
After-hours Movers
Real-time/After-hours Stock Quote
In Play
Afternoon Recommendations
Banc of America:
- Rated (ISE) Buy, target $50.
Cowen:
- Rated (FLEX), (JBIL) Outperform.
Afternoon/Evening Headlines
Bloomberg:
- BKF Capital Group plans to shut down its hedge funds that generated about 20% of its revenue last year because two senior managers quit over a disagreement about long-term compensation.
- Continental AG, which provides vehicle-stability systems to GM and Porshe AG, agreed to buy the car-electronics unit of Motorola(MOT) for $1 billion to become the world’s biggest provider of in-vehicle communications.
- Novartis AG increased its offer for the rest of Chiron Corp.(CHIR) to about $5.33 billion from about $5.1 billion to win backing from shareholders who opposed the deal because the price was too low.
CNBC:
- General Motors(GM) is negotiating with lenders for an $8 billion to $9 billion loan.
Reuters:
- Clear Channel Communications(CCU) signed an agreement with Google(GOOG) to use Google’s software for Internet searches and advertising on radio Web sites.
Financial Times:
- McDonald’s Corp.(MCD) will put photographs of customers on the side of its burger packaging as part of a marketing competition.
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio finished unchanged today as gains in my Semi longs and Networking longs offset losses in my Retail longs and Medical longs. I did not trade in the final hour, thus leaving the Portfolio 50% net long. The tone of the market was negative today as the advance/decline line finished lower, sector performance was mixed and volume was above-average. Measures of investor anxiety were mostly lower into the close. Overall, today's market performance was mildly bearish. Oil is continuing its late afternoon reversal lower in electronic trading. I still believe that U.S. economic growth will slow back to average levels later this year, likely leading to a period of sustained underperformance for the cyclicals that have recently spiked higher. I expect more healthy consolidation near-term for the averages.
Stocks Higher Heading into Final Hour, Led by Tech and Commodities
BOTTOM LINE: The Portfolio is slightly higher into the final hour on gains in my Networking longs, Semi longs and Biotech longs. I added to my (QQQQ) and (IWM) shorts, thus leaving the Portfolio 50% net long. The tone of the market is negative as the advance/decline line is lower, sector performance is mixed and volume is above average. Breadth has deteriorated throughout the day even as oil fell and long-term rates stabilized. It appears to be than more consolidation is necessary in the near-term before another push higher can commence. I expect US stocks to trade mixed-to-lower into the close from current levels on profit-taking.
Today's Headlines
Bloomberg:
- Warren Buffett, struggling to find acquisitions big enough to boost Berkshire Hathaway’s(BRK/A) returns, is making a $14 billion bet on the global stock market.
- Emerging market debt, up an average of 16.7% a year since 2002, will have difficulty continuing to rally, said Mohamed El-Erian, who runs Harvard University’s endowment.
- General Motors(GM) sold a majority of its GMAC unit to a group led by Cerberus Capital Management LP for $7.4 billion.
- Verizon Communications(VZ) agreed to sell its Caribbean and Latin American operations to Carlos Slim’s America Movil SA for $3.7 billion to reduce debt.
Wall Street Journal:
- Iraq may be better positioned to set up a government of national unity after a split among Shiite political parties and the increasing isolation of the radical cleric Muqtada al-Sadr.
- Hewlett-Packard(HPQ) CEO Hurd has made reorganizing the company’s corporate sales force a top priority after complaints from customers they didn’t know whom to contract.
- Constellation Brands(STZ) is close to an agreement to buy Canadian winemaker Vincor Intl. for about $1.05 billion.
- ProFunds’ Ultrashort Japan fund is aimed at helping investors to bet against Japan’s stock market by rising twice as much on a percentage basis as any decline in the US-traded, dollar-based Nikkei 225 futures contract.
- Movielink LLC, a movie downloading service, will allow broadband Internet users to legally purchase and retain electronic copies of new and catalog films starting tomorrow.
Boston Globe:
- Mercury levels in yellow perch near certain Massachusetts incinerators fell 32% in the past seven years, since the state enacted the nation’s toughest emission laws for the toxic metal.
NY Times:
- China’s trade surpluses may move toward a balance as labor shortage at factories push up wages.
- Conde Nast Publications upgraded Brides.com and plans magazine Internet sites for teenage girls and business as it increases its commitment to the Web to compete with rivals.
- Warren Buffett, struggling to find acquisitions big enough to boost Berkshire Hathaway’s(BRK/A) returns, is making a $14 billion bet on the global stock market.
- Emerging market debt, up an average of 16.7% a year since 2002, will have difficulty continuing to rally, said Mohamed El-Erian, who runs Harvard University’s endowment.
- General Motors(GM) sold a majority of its GMAC unit to a group led by Cerberus Capital Management LP for $7.4 billion.
- Verizon Communications(VZ) agreed to sell its Caribbean and Latin American operations to Carlos Slim’s America Movil SA for $3.7 billion to reduce debt.
Wall Street Journal:
- Iraq may be better positioned to set up a government of national unity after a split among Shiite political parties and the increasing isolation of the radical cleric Muqtada al-Sadr.
- Hewlett-Packard(HPQ) CEO Hurd has made reorganizing the company’s corporate sales force a top priority after complaints from customers they didn’t know whom to contract.
- Constellation Brands(STZ) is close to an agreement to buy Canadian winemaker Vincor Intl. for about $1.05 billion.
- ProFunds’ Ultrashort Japan fund is aimed at helping investors to bet against Japan’s stock market by rising twice as much on a percentage basis as any decline in the US-traded, dollar-based Nikkei 225 futures contract.
- Movielink LLC, a movie downloading service, will allow broadband Internet users to legally purchase and retain electronic copies of new and catalog films starting tomorrow.
Boston Globe:
- Mercury levels in yellow perch near certain Massachusetts incinerators fell 32% in the past seven years, since the state enacted the nation’s toughest emission laws for the toxic metal.
NY Times:
- China’s trade surpluses may move toward a balance as labor shortage at factories push up wages.
- Conde Nast Publications upgraded Brides.com and plans magazine Internet sites for teenage girls and business as it increases its commitment to the Web to compete with rivals.
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